# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Barrow vs Cheltenham at 19 December 2020**** Stevenage vs Exeter at 19 December 2020**** Newport County vs Oldham at 19 December 2020**** Mansfield vs Southend at 19 December 2020**** Leyton Orient vs Crawley Town at 19 December 2020**** Harrogate vs Salford at 19 December 2020**** Grimsby vs Scunthorpe at 19 December 2020**** Bradford vs Cambridge at 19 December 2020**** Colchester vs Morecambe at 19 December 2020**** Walsall vs Port Vale at 19 December 2020**** Forest Green vs Carlisle at 19 December 2020**** Bolton vs Tranmere at 19 December 2020**

###
Barrow vs Cheltenham at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Barrow** and **Cheltenham** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Barrow |
3.42 |
2.73 |
7.4 |

Draw |
3.53 |
3.57 |
-0.3 |

Cheltenham |
2.07 |
2.82 |
-12.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.89 |
2.25 |
-8.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.80 |
3.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Barrow, Under 2.5 (7.4 %, 3.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Barrow** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barrow** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance** at home**.

Barrow,** at home**, had one win, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Crawley Town |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Morecambe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Oldham |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Forest Green |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Nov |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** as a guest**.

Cheltenham,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Salford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Exeter |
H |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Walsall |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Carlisle |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Barrow** and the red line for guest team, **Cheltenham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Barrow |
29% |
36% |
21% |
13% |

Cheltenham |
30% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Barrow** to score **1.05 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.5 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and the guest team **Cheltenham ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Barrow** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.34 |

1 |
4.72 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.72 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.34 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.72 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.74 |
3.44 |
2.90 |

2-3 goals |
2.72 |
3.76 |
2.73 |

4+ goals |
2.79 |
3.31 |
2.94 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.74 |
3.61 |
2.79 |

Un 1.5 |
2.74 |
3.44 |
2.90 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |
6.94 |
2.36 |

Un 2.5 |
3.21 |
2.56 |
3.35 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.79 |
3.31 |
2.94 |

Un 3.5 |
2.73 |
3.63 |
2.79 |

Goal-Goal |
3.28 |
2.57 |
3.28 |

No Goal |
2.36 |
5.77 |
2.49 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.42 |
5.75 |
2.42 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.46 |
5.77 |
2.57 |

####
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###
Stevenage vs Exeter at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stevenage** and **Exeter** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stevenage |
3.83 |
2.82 |
9.4 |

Draw |
3.55 |
3.61 |
-0.5 |

Exeter |
1.93 |
2.71 |
-14.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.23 |
-7.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.81 |
2.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Stevenage, Under 2.5 (9.4 %, 2.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stevenage** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stevenage** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance** at home**.

Stevenage,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Southend |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Port Vale |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Nov |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Grimsby |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Exeter** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Exeter** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance** as a guest**.

Exeter,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Exeter was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
3 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Colchester |
H |
6 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Bradford |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Morecambe |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stevenage** and the red line for guest team, **Exeter. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stevenage |
31% |
34% |
23% |
12% |

Exeter |
29% |
35% |
23% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stevenage** to score **0.96 ** goals and **Exeter** to score **1.58 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the guest team **Exeter ** to win by **0.62** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stevenage** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Exeter** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.24 |
0-1 |
3.39 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.67 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
3.39 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.67 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.01 |
3.31 |
2.73 |

2-3 goals |
2.68 |
4.05 |
2.63 |

4+ goals |
2.97 |
3.19 |
2.85 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.76 |
3.74 |
2.70 |

Un 1.5 |
3.01 |
3.31 |
2.73 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |
6.69 |
2.33 |

Un 2.5 |
3.36 |
2.62 |
3.11 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.97 |
3.19 |
2.85 |

Un 3.5 |
2.79 |
3.74 |
2.67 |

Goal-Goal |
3.22 |
2.62 |
3.24 |

No Goal |
2.53 |
5.69 |
2.33 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |
5.55 |
2.45 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.62 |
5.69 |
2.43 |

####
Go to Top

###
Newport County vs Oldham at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newport County** and **Oldham** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newport County |
1.82 |
2.06 |
-6.4 |

Draw |
3.77 |
3.97 |
-1.3 |

Oldham |
4.15 |
3.80 |
2.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.87 |
1.92 |
-1.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.09 |
-3.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Oldham (2.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newport County** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newport County** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance** at home**.

Newport County,** at home**, had 7 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 22 points, 91.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Salford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Forest Green |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Carlisle |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Oldham** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oldham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance** as a guest**.

Oldham,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 6 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Barrow |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Scunthorpe |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Cheltenham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newport County** and the red line for guest team, **Oldham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newport County |
17% |
38% |
21% |
24% |

Oldham |
35% |
30% |
24% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.67 ** goals and **Oldham** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and the home team **Newport County ** to win by **0.75** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Oldham** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and the home team **Newport County ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.39 |
0-1 |
4.03 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.33 |
4+ |
3.77 |

3 |
3.91 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.03 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.09 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.77 |

NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.85 |
4.07 |
4.68 |

2-3 goals |
2.19 |
4.20 |
3.27 |

4+ goals |
2.05 |
3.58 |
4.27 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.14 |
3.96 |
3.56 |

Un 1.5 |
1.85 |
4.07 |
4.68 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
7.04 |
3.06 |

Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
2.71 |
5.10 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.05 |
3.58 |
4.27 |

Un 3.5 |
2.06 |
4.15 |
3.64 |

Goal-Goal |
2.77 |
2.82 |
3.52 |

No Goal |
1.59 |
7.62 |
4.15 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
5.66 |
2.76 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.75 |
7.62 |
3.86 |

####
Go to Top

###
Mansfield vs Southend at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Mansfield** and **Southend** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Mansfield |
1.56 |
2.21 |
-18.9 |

Draw |
4.03 |
3.73 |
2.0 |

Southend |
5.80 |
3.57 |
10.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.93 |
2.06 |
-3.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.95 |
-1.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Southend (2 %, 10.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Mansfield** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mansfield** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance** at home**.

Mansfield,** at home**, had no wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 18.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Crawley Town |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Harrogate |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Nov |
Colchester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Forest Green |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Southend** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southend** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance** as a guest**.

Southend,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Nov |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Port Vale |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Mansfield** and the red line for guest team, **Southend. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Mansfield |
22% |
34% |
26% |
19% |

Southend |
32% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Mansfield** to score **1.81 ** goals and **Southend** to score **0.7 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Mansfield ** to win by **1.11** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Mansfield** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Southend** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Mansfield ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.26 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.20 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.20 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.39 |
3.68 |
3.22 |

2-3 goals |