2020 12 18 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Barrow vs Cheltenham at 19 December 2020
Stevenage vs Exeter at 19 December 2020
Newport County vs Oldham at 19 December 2020
Mansfield vs Southend at 19 December 2020
Leyton Orient vs Crawley Town at 19 December 2020
Harrogate vs Salford at 19 December 2020
Grimsby vs Scunthorpe at 19 December 2020
Bradford vs Cambridge at 19 December 2020
Colchester vs Morecambe at 19 December 2020
Walsall vs Port Vale at 19 December 2020
Forest Green vs Carlisle at 19 December 2020
Bolton vs Tranmere at 19 December 2020


Barrow vs Cheltenham at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Barrow and Cheltenham for League Two (England), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barrow

3.42

2.73

7.4

Draw

3.53

3.57

-0.3

Cheltenham

2.07

2.82

-12.8

Over 2.5

1.89

2.25

-8.5

Under 2.5

1.91

1.80

3.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Barrow, Under 2.5 (7.4 %, 3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barrow in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barrow in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance at home.
Barrow, at home, had one win, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Scunthorpe

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Crawley Town

A

2

4

L

O

G

05 Dec

Salford

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

Morecambe

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Nov

Oldham

H

3

4

L

O

G

21 Nov

Forest Green

H

2

2

D

O

G

14 Nov

Cambridge

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Grimsby

A

0

1

L

U

N


Cheltenham in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance as a guest.
Cheltenham, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Salford

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Exeter

H

5

3

W

O

G

01 Dec

Bradford

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Cambridge

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Walsall

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Nov

Carlisle

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Oldham

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barrow and the red line for guest team, Cheltenham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barrow

29%

36%

21%

13%

Cheltenham

30%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.05 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.5 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the guest team Cheltenham to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.19 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.34

1

4.72

2-3

2.04

2

3.89

4+

4.72

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.34

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.25

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.72

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.74

3.44

2.90

2-3 goals

2.72

3.76

2.73

4+ goals

2.79

3.31

2.94

Ov 1.5

2.74

3.61

2.79

Un 1.5

2.74

3.44

2.90

Ov 2.5

2.31

6.94

2.36

Un 2.5

3.21

2.56

3.35

Ov 3.5

2.79

3.31

2.94

Un 3.5

2.73

3.63

2.79

Goal-Goal

3.28

2.57

3.28

No Goal

2.36

5.77

2.49

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.42

5.75

2.42

NG+Un 2.5

2.46

5.77

2.57


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Stevenage vs Exeter at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Stevenage and Exeter for League Two (England), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stevenage

3.83

2.82

9.4

Draw

3.55

3.61

-0.5

Exeter

1.93

2.71

-14.9

Over 2.5

1.90

2.23

-7.8

Under 2.5

1.91

1.81

2.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stevenage, Under 2.5 (9.4 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stevenage in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stevenage in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance at home.
Stevenage, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Carlisle

A

0

4

L

O

N

05 Dec

Southend

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Dec

Walsall

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Port Vale

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Bolton

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Nov

Morecambe

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Colchester

A

1

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Grimsby

H

0

0

D

U

N


Exeter in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Exeter in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance as a guest.
Exeter, as a guest, had 2 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Exeter was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Harrogate

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Tranmere

H

5

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Cheltenham

A

3

5

L

O

G

01 Dec

Grimsby

A

4

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Colchester

H

6

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Oldham

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Nov

Bradford

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Nov

Morecambe

A

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stevenage and the red line for guest team, Exeter.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stevenage

31%

34%

23%

12%

Exeter

29%

35%

23%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stevenage to score 0.96 goals and Exeter to score 1.58 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the guest team Exeter to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.17 goals and Exeter to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

3.39

1

4.85

2-3

2.04

2

3.91

4+

4.67

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.39

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.01

3.31

2.73

2-3 goals

2.68

4.05

2.63

4+ goals

2.97

3.19

2.85

Ov 1.5

2.76

3.74

2.70

Un 1.5

3.01

3.31

2.73

Ov 2.5

2.37

6.69

2.33

Un 2.5

3.36

2.62

3.11

Ov 3.5

2.97

3.19

2.85

Un 3.5

2.79

3.74

2.67

Goal-Goal

3.22

2.62

3.24

No Goal

2.53

5.69

2.33

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.43

5.55

2.45

NG+Un 2.5

2.62

5.69

2.43


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Newport County vs Oldham at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Newport County and Oldham for League Two (England), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Newport County

1.82

2.06

-6.4

Draw

3.77

3.97

-1.3

Oldham

4.15

3.80

2.2

Over 2.5

1.87

1.92

-1.4

Under 2.5

1.96

2.09

-3.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Oldham (2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Newport County in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newport County in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance at home.
Newport County, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 22 points, 91.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Salford

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Leyton Orient

A

1

2

L

O

G

08 Dec

Grimsby

A

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Morecambe

H

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Forest Green

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Port Vale

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Carlisle

A

2

3

L

O

G


Oldham in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oldham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance as a guest.
Oldham, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Walsall

H

2

3

L

O

G

12 Dec

Bradford

H

3

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Cambridge

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Tranmere

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Nov

Barrow

A

4

3

W

O

G

21 Nov

Exeter

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Scunthorpe

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Nov

Cheltenham

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newport County and the red line for guest team, Oldham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Newport County

17%

38%

21%

24%

Oldham

35%

30%

24%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.67 goals and Oldham to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Newport County to win by 0.75 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.51 goals and Oldham to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Newport County to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.39

0-1

4.03

1

5.35

2-3

2.05

2

4.33

4+

3.77

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.17

Un 1.5

4.03

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.09

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.77

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.85

4.07

4.68

2-3 goals

2.19

4.20

3.27

4+ goals

2.05

3.58

4.27

Ov 1.5

2.14

3.96

3.56

Un 1.5

1.85

4.07

4.68

Ov 2.5

1.88

7.04

3.06

Un 2.5

2.30

2.71

5.10

Ov 3.5

2.05

3.58

4.27

Un 3.5

2.06

4.15

3.64

Goal-Goal

2.77

2.82

3.52

No Goal

1.59

7.62

4.15

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.17

5.66

2.76

NG+Un 2.5

1.75

7.62

3.86


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Mansfield vs Southend at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Mansfield and Southend for League Two (England), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Mansfield

1.56

2.21

-18.9

Draw

4.03

3.73

2.0

Southend

5.80

3.57

10.8

Over 2.5

1.93

2.06

-3.3

Under 2.5

1.88

1.95

-1.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Southend (2 %, 10.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mansfield in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mansfield in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance at home.
Mansfield, at home, had no wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 18.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Carlisle

A

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Grimsby

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Crawley Town

H

3

3

D

O

G

02 Dec

Cambridge

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Harrogate

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Nov

Colchester

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Forest Green

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Bolton

A

1

1

D

U

G


Southend in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southend in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance as a guest.
Southend, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Grimsby

H

3

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Scunthorpe

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Stevenage

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Bolton

A

0

3

L

O

N

24 Nov

Forest Green

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Nov

Walsall

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Bradford

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Oct

Port Vale

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mansfield and the red line for guest team, Southend.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Mansfield

22%

34%

26%

19%

Southend

32%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.81 goals and Southend to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Mansfield to win by 1.11 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.41 goals and Southend to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Mansfield to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.83

1

5.26

2-3

2.00

2

3.97

4+

4.20

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.83

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.20

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.39

3.68

3.22

2-3 goals