# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Brest vs Montpellier at 19 December 2020**** Marseille vs Reims at 19 December 2020**** Metz vs Lens at 19 December 2020**** Nice vs Lyon at 19 December 2020**** Lille vs Paris SG at 20 December 2020**** Lorient vs Rennes at 20 December 2020**** Nantes vs Angers at 20 December 2020**** St Etienne vs Nimes at 20 December 2020**** Strasbourg vs Bordeaux at 20 December 2020**** Dijon vs Monaco at 20 December 2020**

###
Brest vs Montpellier at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Brest** and **Montpellier** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Brest |
2.97 |
1.96 |
17.4 |

Draw |
3.47 |
3.92 |
-3.3 |

Montpellier |
2.39 |
4.29 |
-18.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.78 |
-18.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.99 |
1.56 |
13.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Brest, Under 2.5 (17.4 %, 13.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Brest** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brest** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance** at home**.

Brest,** at home**, had 5 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 71.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Lyon |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Reims |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Bordeaux |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Metz |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
St Etienne |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Lille |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Rennes |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Strasbourg |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**Montpellier** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Montpellier** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance** as a guest**.

Montpellier,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 14 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Metz |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Lens |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Paris SG |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Lorient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Strasbourg |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Bordeaux |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
St Etienne |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Reims |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Brest** and the red line for guest team, **Montpellier. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Brest |
29% |
24% |
38% |
10% |

Montpellier |
54% |
26% |
6% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Brest** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Montpellier** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.2** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Brest** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Montpellier** to score **0.8 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.08** goals in the game and the home team **Brest ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
6.45 |
0-1 |
2.80 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.53 |
4+ |
6.54 |

3 |
4.83 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.56 |

4 |
12.05 |
Un 1.5 |
2.80 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.78 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.56 |

Gg |
3.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.54 |

NoG |
1.49 |
Un 3.5 |
1.18 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.83 |
2.30 |
4.70 |

2-3 goals |
1.38 |
7.90 |
6.62 |

4+ goals |
4.78 |
4.03 |
1.84 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.67 |
6.43 |
4.10 |

Un 1.5 |
2.83 |
2.30 |
4.70 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
9.47 |
2.61 |

Un 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.95 |
6.74 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.78 |
4.03 |
1.84 |

Un 3.5 |
1.76 |
3.90 |
5.65 |

Goal-Goal |
2.51 |
3.29 |
3.36 |

No Goal |
1.76 |
4.33 |
4.97 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
7.03 |
2.72 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.76 |
4.33 |
6.08 |

####
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###
Marseille vs Reims at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Marseille** and **Reims** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Marseille |
1.78 |
1.84 |
-1.8 |

Draw |
3.65 |
4.22 |
-3.7 |

Reims |
4.75 |
4.55 |
0.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.05 |
2.12 |
-1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
1.89 |
-2.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Reims (0.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Marseille** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Marseille** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance** at home**.

Marseille,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Rennes |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Monaco |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Dec |
Nimes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Nantes |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Nov |
Strasbourg |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Lorient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Bordeaux |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Lyon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Reims** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Reims scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reims** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Reims scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance** as a guest**.

Reims,** as a guest**, had one win, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 25.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Reims scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Nantes |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Brest |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Nice |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Lyon |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

22 Nov |
Nimes |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Lens |
A |
4 |
4 |
D |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Strasbourg |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Montpellier |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Marseille** and the red line for guest team, **Reims. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Marseille |
24% |
16% |
45% |
15% |

Reims |
41% |
35% |
15% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Marseille** to score **1.61 ** goals and **Reims** to score **0.8 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and the home team **Marseille ** to win by **0.81** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Marseille** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Reims** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and the home team **Marseille ** to win by **0.59** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.00 |
0-1 |
4.02 |

1 |
6.71 |
2-3 |
1.85 |

2 |
3.60 |
4+ |
4.78 |

3 |
3.82 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
7.46 |
Un 1.5 |
4.02 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
2.25 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.78 |

NoG |
1.81 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.83 |
2.49 |
2.96 |

2-3 goals |
1.34 |
9.82 |
6.59 |

4+ goals |
2.82 |
2.55 |
3.94 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.57 |
5.47 |
5.55 |

Un 1.5 |
3.83 |
2.49 |
2.96 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
5.74 |
4.81 |

Un 2.5 |
2.10 |
3.40 |
4.36 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.82 |
2.55 |
3.94 |

Un 3.5 |
1.69 |
5.09 |
4.75 |

Goal-Goal |
1.93 |
3.24 |
5.77 |

No Goal |
1.78 |
5.54 |
3.90 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
4.74 |
5.05 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.88 |
5.54 |
3.90 |

####
Go to Top

###
Metz vs Lens at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Metz** and **Lens** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Metz |
2.93 |
2.46 |
6.5 |

Draw |
3.28 |
3.61 |
-2.8 |

Lens |
2.50 |
3.14 |
-8.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.42 |
-4.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.70 |
0.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Metz, Under 2.5 (6.5 %, 0.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Metz** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Metz scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Metz** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Metz** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Metz’s performance** at home**.

Metz,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Metz scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Metz was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Montpellier |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Strasbourg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Lyon |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Brest |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Nantes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Dijon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Nov |
Nimes |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
St Etienne |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Lens** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lens** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance** as a guest**.

Lens,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Monaco |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Montpellier |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Rennes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Angers |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Nantes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Dijon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Reims |
H |
4 |
4 |
D |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Lille |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Metz** and the red line for guest team, **Lens. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Metz |
29% |
33% |
28% |
10% |

Lens |
36% |
36% |
15% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Metz** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Lens** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.13** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Metz** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Lens** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.25** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.13** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.62 |
0-1 |
3.08 |

1 |
4.52 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
5.32 |

3 |
4.46 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.48 |

4 |
8.20 |
Un 1.5 |
3.08 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.70 |

Gg |
2.20 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.32 |

NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.75 |
3.12 |
3.16 |

2-3 goals |
2.04 |
4.15 |
3.71 |

4+ goals |
3.84 |
3.42 |
2.24 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.92 |
3.13 |

Un 1.5 |
2.75 |
3.12 |
3.16 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |
7.49 |
2.40 |

Un 2.5 |
2.67 |
2.66 |
4.02 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.84 |
3.42 |
2.24 |

Un 3.5 |
2.28 |
3.67 |
3.47 |

Goal-Goal |
3.03 |
2.64 |
3.44 |

No Goal |
2.14 |
5.24 |
2.93 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
6.13 |
2.55 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.14 |
5.24 |
3.22 |

####
Go to Top

###
Nice vs Lyon at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Nice** and **Lyon** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Nice |
5.38 |
2.67 |
18.9 |

Draw |
4.12 |
3.62 |
3.4 |

Lyon |
1.62 |
2.87 |
-26.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.71 |
2.43 |
-17.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.17 |
1.70 |
12.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Nice, Draw, Under 2.5 (18.9 %, 3.4 %, 12.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Nice** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nice** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance** at home**.

Nice,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Nimes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Rennes |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Reims |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Dijon |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Monaco |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Angers |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Lille |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
St Etienne |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Lyon** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Lyon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lyon** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lyon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lyon’s performance** as a guest**.

Lyon,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 62.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Lyon scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lyon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Brest |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Paris SG |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Metz |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Reims |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

22 Nov |
Angers |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
St Etienne |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Lille |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Oct |
Monaco |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Nice** and the red line for guest team, **Lyon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Nice |
32% |
34% |
26% |
9% |

Lyon |
35% |
35% |
12% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Nice** to score **0.82 ** goals and **Lyon** to score **1.97 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.79** goals in the game and the guest team **Lyon ** to win by **1.15** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Nice** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Lyon** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.01 |
0-1 |
2.95 |

1 |
4.39 |
2-3 |
2.14 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
5.15 |

3 |
4.59 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.51 |

4 |
8.20 |
Un 1.5 |
2.95 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.70 |

Gg |
2.25 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.15 |

NoG |
1.80 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.87 |
3.05 |