2020 12 18 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Brest vs Montpellier at 19 December 2020
Marseille vs Reims at 19 December 2020
Metz vs Lens at 19 December 2020
Nice vs Lyon at 19 December 2020
Lille vs Paris SG at 20 December 2020
Lorient vs Rennes at 20 December 2020
Nantes vs Angers at 20 December 2020
St Etienne vs Nimes at 20 December 2020
Strasbourg vs Bordeaux at 20 December 2020
Dijon vs Monaco at 20 December 2020


Brest vs Montpellier at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Brest and Montpellier for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brest

2.97

1.96

17.4

Draw

3.47

3.92

-3.3

Montpellier

2.39

4.29

-18.5

Over 2.5

1.84

2.78

-18.4

Under 2.5

1.99

1.56

13.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Brest, Under 2.5 (17.4 %, 13.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Brest in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brest in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance at home.
Brest, at home, had 5 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 71.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Lyon

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Dec

Reims

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Bordeaux

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Nov

Metz

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

St Etienne

H

4

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Lille

H

3

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Rennes

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Oct

Strasbourg

H

0

3

L

O

N


Montpellier in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Montpellier in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance as a guest.
Montpellier, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 14 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Metz

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Lens

A

3

2

W

O

G

05 Dec

Paris SG

H

1

3

L

O

G

29 Nov

Lorient

A

1

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Strasbourg

H

4

3

W

O

G

07 Nov

Bordeaux

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

St Etienne

A

1

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Reims

H

0

4

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brest and the red line for guest team, Montpellier.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brest

29%

24%

38%

10%

Montpellier

54%

26%

6%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brest to score 1.21 goals and Montpellier to score 1.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brest to score 1.28 goals and Montpellier to score 0.8 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.08 goals in the game and the home team Brest to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.45

0-1

2.80

1

4.95

2-3

2.04

2

3.53

4+

6.54

3

4.83

Ov 1.5

1.56

4

12.05

Un 1.5

2.80

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.78

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.56

Gg

3.04

Ov 3.5

6.54

NoG

1.49

Un 3.5

1.18

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.83

2.30

4.70

2-3 goals

1.38

7.90

6.62

4+ goals

4.78

4.03

1.84

Ov 1.5

1.67

6.43

4.10

Un 1.5

2.83

2.30

4.70

Ov 2.5

1.96

9.47

2.61

Un 2.5

1.95

2.95

6.74

Ov 3.5

4.78

4.03

1.84

Un 3.5

1.76

3.90

5.65

Goal-Goal

2.51

3.29

3.36

No Goal

1.76

4.33

4.97

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.04

7.03

2.72

NG+Un 2.5

1.76

4.33

6.08


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Marseille vs Reims at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Marseille and Reims for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Marseille

1.78

1.84

-1.8

Draw

3.65

4.22

-3.7

Reims

4.75

4.55

0.9

Over 2.5

2.05

2.12

-1.6

Under 2.5

1.80

1.89

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reims (0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Marseille in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Marseille in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance at home.
Marseille, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Rennes

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Monaco

H

2

1

W

O

G

04 Dec

Nimes

A

2

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Nantes

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Nov

Strasbourg

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Lorient

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Bordeaux

H

3

1

W

O

G

04 Oct

Lyon

A

1

1

D

U

G


Reims in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reims in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance as a guest.
Reims, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Nantes

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Dec

Brest

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Nice

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Lyon

A

0

3

L

O

N

22 Nov

Nimes

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Lens

A

4

4

D

O

G

01 Nov

Strasbourg

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Montpellier

A

4

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Marseille and the red line for guest team, Reims.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Marseille

24%

16%

45%

15%

Reims

41%

35%

15%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.61 goals and Reims to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Marseille to win by 0.81 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.5 goals and Reims to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Marseille to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.00

0-1

4.02

1

6.71

2-3

1.85

2

3.60

4+

4.78

3

3.82

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

7.46

Un 1.5

4.02

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

2.25

Ov 3.5

4.78

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.83

2.49

2.96

2-3 goals

1.34

9.82

6.59

4+ goals

2.82

2.55

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.57

5.47

5.55

Un 1.5

3.83

2.49

2.96

Ov 2.5

1.62

5.74

4.81

Un 2.5

2.10

3.40

4.36

Ov 3.5

2.82

2.55

3.94

Un 3.5

1.69

5.09

4.75

Goal-Goal

1.93

3.24

5.77

No Goal

1.78

5.54

3.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.69

4.74

5.05

NG+Un 2.5

1.88

5.54

3.90


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Metz vs Lens at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Metz and Lens for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Metz

2.93

2.46

6.5

Draw

3.28

3.61

-2.8

Lens

2.50

3.14

-8.2

Over 2.5

2.19

2.42

-4.3

Under 2.5

1.71

1.70

0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Metz, Under 2.5 (6.5 %, 0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Metz in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Metz in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Metz’s performance at home.
Metz, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Metz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Montpellier

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Strasbourg

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Dec

Lyon

H

1

3

L

O

G

29 Nov

Brest

H

0

2

L

U

N

22 Nov

Nantes

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Dijon

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Nimes

A

1

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

St Etienne

H

2

0

W

U

N


Lens in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lens in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance as a guest.
Lens, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Monaco

A

3

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Montpellier

H

2

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Rennes

A

2

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

Angers

H

1

3

L

O

G

25 Nov

Nantes

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Dijon

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Reims

H

4

4

D

O

G

18 Oct

Lille

A

0

4

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Metz and the red line for guest team, Lens.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Metz

29%

33%

28%

10%

Lens

36%

36%

15%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Metz to score 1.09 goals and Lens to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Metz to score 1.19 goals and Lens to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.62

0-1

3.08

1

4.52

2-3

2.06

2

3.82

4+

5.32

3

4.46

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

8.20

Un 1.5

3.08

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.43

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.70

Gg

2.20

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.75

3.12

3.16

2-3 goals

2.04

4.15

3.71

4+ goals

3.84

3.42

2.24

Ov 1.5

2.35

3.92

3.13

Un 1.5

2.75

3.12

3.16

Ov 2.5

2.23

7.49

2.40

Un 2.5

2.67

2.66

4.02

Ov 3.5

3.84

3.42

2.24

Un 3.5

2.28

3.67

3.47

Goal-Goal

3.03

2.64

3.44

No Goal

2.14

5.24

2.93

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.25

6.13

2.55

NG+Un 2.5

2.14

5.24

3.22


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Nice vs Lyon at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Nice and Lyon for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nice

5.38

2.67

18.9

Draw

4.12

3.62

3.4

Lyon

1.62

2.87

-26.9

Over 2.5

1.71

2.43

-17.3

Under 2.5

2.17

1.70

12.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nice, Draw, Under 2.5 (18.9 %, 3.4 %, 12.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nice in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nice in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance at home.
Nice, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Nimes

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Rennes

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Reims

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Dijon

H

1

3

L

O

G

08 Nov

Monaco

H

1

2

L

O

G

01 Nov

Angers

A

3

0

W

O

N

25 Oct

Lille

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

St Etienne

A

3

1

W

O

G


Lyon in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lyon in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lyon’s performance as a guest.
Lyon, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 62.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lyon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Brest

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Dec

Paris SG

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Metz

A

3

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Reims

H

3

0

W

O

N

22 Nov

Angers

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

St Etienne

H

2

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Lille

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Oct

Monaco

H

4

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nice and the red line for guest team, Lyon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nice

32%

34%

26%

9%

Lyon

35%

35%

12%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nice to score 0.82 goals and Lyon to score 1.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and the guest team Lyon to win by 1.15 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nice to score 1.12 goals and Lyon to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.01

0-1

2.95

1

4.39

2-3

2.14

2

4.02

4+

5.15

3

4.59

Ov 1.5

1.51

4

8.20

Un 1.5

2.95

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.43

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.70

Gg

2.25

Ov 3.5

5.15

NoG

1.80

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.87

3.05