# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Crystal Palace vs Liverpool at 19 December 2020**** Southampton vs Man City at 19 December 2020**** Newcastle vs Fulham at 19 December 2020**** Everton vs Arsenal at 19 December 2020**** West Brom vs Aston Villa at 20 December 2020**** Tottenham vs Leicester at 20 December 2020**** Brighton vs Sheffield United at 20 December 2020**** Man United vs Leeds at 20 December 2020**** Chelsea vs West Ham at 21 December 2020**** Burnley vs Wolves at 21 December 2020**

###
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crystal Palace** and **Liverpool** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crystal Palace |
6.19 |
2.65 |
21.6 |

Draw |
4.46 |
3.80 |
3.9 |

Liverpool |
1.53 |
2.79 |
-29.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.93 |
-9.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.33 |
2.07 |
5.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crystal Palace, Draw, Under 2.5 (21.6 %, 3.9 %, 5.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crystal Palace** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crystal Palace** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance** at home**.

Crystal Palace,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
West Brom |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Newcastle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Nov |
Burnley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Leeds |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Oct |
Wolves |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Fulham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Liverpool** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Liverpool** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Liverpool** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Liverpool** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Liverpool’s performance** as a guest**.

Liverpool,** as a guest**, had one win, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Liverpool** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Liverpool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Tottenham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Fulham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
Wolves |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

28 Nov |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Leicester |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Nov |
Man City |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
West Ham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Sheffield United |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crystal Palace** and the red line for guest team, **Liverpool. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crystal Palace |
28% |
34% |
13% |
24% |

Liverpool |
28% |
34% |
22% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crystal Palace** to score **0.77 ** goals and **Liverpool** to score **2.16 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.93** goals in the game and the guest team **Liverpool ** to win by **1.39** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crystal Palace** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Liverpool** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.72 |

1 |
5.26 |
2-3 |
2.23 |

2 |
4.65 |
4+ |
3.55 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
5.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.72 |

5 |
13.33 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |

6+ |
25.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.07 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.55 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.86 |
3.41 |
2.80 |

2-3 goals |
3.01 |
3.90 |
2.43 |

4+ goals |
2.09 |
4.09 |
3.62 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.57 |
3.97 |
2.79 |

Un 1.5 |
2.86 |
3.41 |
2.80 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
7.46 |
2.59 |

Un 2.5 |
3.69 |
2.49 |
3.04 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.09 |
4.09 |
3.62 |

Un 3.5 |
2.95 |
3.70 |
2.56 |

Goal-Goal |
2.87 |
2.80 |
3.39 |

No Goal |
2.44 |
6.11 |
2.34 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |
5.81 |
2.64 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.82 |
6.11 |
2.32 |

####
Go to Top

###
Southampton vs Man City at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Southampton** and **Man City** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Southampton |
6.64 |
1.91 |
37.3 |

Draw |
4.69 |
3.85 |
4.7 |

Man City |
1.49 |
4.65 |
-45.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.56 |
2.11 |
-16.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.44 |
1.90 |
11.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Southampton, Draw, Under 2.5 (37.3 %, 4.7 %, 11.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Southampton** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southampton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance** at home**.

Southampton,** at home**, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Sheffield United |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

07 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Man United |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Nov |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Nov |
Newcastle |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Aston Villa |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Everton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Man City** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man City** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance** as a guest**.

Man City,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
West Brom |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Man United |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Fulham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Burnley |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Southampton** and the red line for guest team, **Man City. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Southampton |
17% |
39% |
19% |
25% |

Man City |
39% |
36% |
16% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Southampton** to score **0.75 ** goals and **Man City** to score **2.28 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.03** goals in the game and the guest team **Man City ** to win by **1.53** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Southampton** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Man City** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Southampton ** to win by **0.58** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.55 |

1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
4.37 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.55 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.37 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.86 |
4.21 |
4.48 |

2-3 goals |
2.03 |
3.44 |
4.60 |

4+ goals |
1.73 |
4.49 |
4.98 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.93 |
3.72 |
4.72 |

Un 1.5 |
1.86 |
4.21 |
4.48 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.59 |
9.27 |
3.81 |

Un 2.5 |
2.33 |
2.52 |
5.78 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.73 |
4.49 |
4.98 |

Un 3.5 |
1.96 |
3.68 |
4.56 |

Goal-Goal |
2.51 |
2.61 |
4.58 |

No Goal |
1.53 |
7.39 |
4.71 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
7.10 |
3.29 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.70 |
7.39 |
4.22 |

####
Go to Top

###
Newcastle vs Fulham at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newcastle** and **Fulham** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newcastle |
2.57 |
2.08 |
9.2 |

Draw |
3.29 |
3.85 |
-4.4 |

Fulham |
2.89 |
3.83 |
-8.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
1.98 |
4.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
2.02 |
-8.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Newcastle, Over 2.5 (9.2 %, 4.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newcastle** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newcastle** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance** at home**.

Newcastle,** at home**, had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Leeds |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Crystal Palace |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Nov |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Everton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Man United |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**Fulham** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fulham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance** as a guest**.

Fulham,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Brighton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Man City |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Nov |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Everton |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
West Ham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Nov |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newcastle** and the red line for guest team, **Fulham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newcastle |
21% |
35% |
17% |
27% |

Fulham |
34% |
36% |
19% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newcastle** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Fulham** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.1** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newcastle** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Fulham** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and the home team **Newcastle ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.69 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
2.14 |

2 |
4.46 |
4+ |
3.79 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.02 |
Un 1.5 |
3.69 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |

6+ |
34.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.79 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.26 |
3.66 |
3.52 |

2-3 goals |
2.18 |
3.74 |
3.65 |

4+ goals |
1.81 |
4.33 |
4.63 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.03 |
3.93 |
3.95 |

Un 1.5 |
2.26 |
3.66 |
3.52 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
8.31 |
3.50 |

Un 2.5 |
2.77 |
2.49 |
4.23 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.81 |
4.33 |
4.63 |

Un 3.5 |
2.21 |
3.71 |
3.60 |

Goal-Goal |
2.48 |
2.77 |
4.23 |

No Goal |
1.79 |
6.57 |
3.47 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
6.41 |
3.20 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.07 |
6.57 |
3.16 |

####
Go to Top

###
Everton vs Arsenal at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Everton** and **Arsenal** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Everton |
2.35 |
2.11 |
4.8 |

Draw |
3.54 |
3.82 |
-2.1 |

Arsenal |
3.02 |
3.77 |
-6.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.03 |
-4.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.99 |
1.97 |
0.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Everton, Under 2.5 (4.8 %, 0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Everton** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Everton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance** at home**.

Everton,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Fulham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Man United |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Arsenal** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Arsenal** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance** as a guest**.

Arsenal,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Southampton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Leeds |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Man United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Leicester |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Everton** and the red line for guest team, **Arsenal. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Everton |
21% |
34% |
22% |
22% |

Arsenal |
34% |
36% |
19% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Everton** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Arsenal** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.24** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Everton** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Arsenal** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Everton ** to win by **0.39** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.72 |

1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
4.03 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.72 |

5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.03 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.28 |
3.64 |
3.49 |