2020 12 18 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Crystal Palace vs Liverpool at 19 December 2020
Southampton vs Man City at 19 December 2020
Newcastle vs Fulham at 19 December 2020
Everton vs Arsenal at 19 December 2020
West Brom vs Aston Villa at 20 December 2020
Tottenham vs Leicester at 20 December 2020
Brighton vs Sheffield United at 20 December 2020
Man United vs Leeds at 20 December 2020
Chelsea vs West Ham at 21 December 2020
Burnley vs Wolves at 21 December 2020


Crystal Palace vs Liverpool at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Crystal Palace and Liverpool for Premier League (England), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crystal Palace

6.19

2.65

21.6

Draw

4.46

3.80

3.9

Liverpool

1.53

2.79

-29.5

Over 2.5

1.62

1.93

-9.9

Under 2.5

2.33

2.07

5.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crystal Palace, Draw, Under 2.5 (21.6 %, 3.9 %, 5.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crystal Palace in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crystal Palace in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance at home.
Crystal Palace, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

West Ham

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Tottenham

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

West Brom

A

5

1

W

O

G

27 Nov

Newcastle

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Nov

Burnley

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Leeds

H

4

1

W

O

G

30 Oct

Wolves

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Oct

Fulham

A

2

1

W

O

G


Liverpool in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Liverpool in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Liverpool’s performance as a guest.
Liverpool, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Liverpool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Tottenham

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Fulham

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Wolves

H

4

0

W

O

N

28 Nov

Brighton

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Leicester

H

3

0

W

O

N

08 Nov

Man City

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

West Ham

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Sheffield United

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crystal Palace and the red line for guest team, Liverpool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crystal Palace

28%

34%

13%

24%

Liverpool

28%

34%

22%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 0.77 goals and Liverpool to score 2.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.93 goals in the game and the guest team Liverpool to win by 1.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 1.33 goals and Liverpool to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.72

1

5.26

2-3

2.23

2

4.65

4+

3.55

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

5.99

Un 1.5

3.72

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

25.00

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

3.55

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.86

3.41

2.80

2-3 goals

3.01

3.90

2.43

4+ goals

2.09

4.09

3.62

Ov 1.5

2.57

3.97

2.79

Un 1.5

2.86

3.41

2.80

Ov 2.5

2.09

7.46

2.59

Un 2.5

3.69

2.49

3.04

Ov 3.5

2.09

4.09

3.62

Un 3.5

2.95

3.70

2.56

Goal-Goal

2.87

2.80

3.39

No Goal

2.44

6.11

2.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.23

5.81

2.64

NG+Un 2.5

2.82

6.11

2.32


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Southampton vs Man City at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Southampton and Man City for Premier League (England), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Southampton

6.64

1.91

37.3

Draw

4.69

3.85

4.7

Man City

1.49

4.65

-45.6

Over 2.5

1.56

2.11

-16.7

Under 2.5

2.44

1.90

11.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Southampton, Draw, Under 2.5 (37.3 %, 4.7 %, 11.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Southampton in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southampton in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance at home.
Southampton, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Arsenal

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Sheffield United

H

3

0

W

O

N

07 Dec

Brighton

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Man United

H

2

3

L

O

G

23 Nov

Wolves

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Nov

Newcastle

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Aston Villa

A

4

3

W

O

G

25 Oct

Everton

H

2

0

W

U

N


Man City in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance as a guest.
Man City, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

West Brom

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Man United

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Fulham

H

2

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Burnley

H

5

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Tottenham

A

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Liverpool

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Sheffield United

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

West Ham

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Southampton and the red line for guest team, Man City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Southampton

17%

39%

19%

25%

Man City

39%

36%

16%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southampton to score 0.75 goals and Man City to score 2.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.03 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 1.53 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southampton to score 1.52 goals and Man City to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Southampton to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.55

1

4.65

2-3

2.05

2

4.10

4+

4.37

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.55

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.37

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.86

4.21

4.48

2-3 goals

2.03

3.44

4.60

4+ goals

1.73

4.49

4.98

Ov 1.5

1.93

3.72

4.72

Un 1.5

1.86

4.21

4.48

Ov 2.5

1.59

9.27

3.81

Un 2.5

2.33

2.52

5.78

Ov 3.5

1.73

4.49

4.98

Un 3.5

1.96

3.68

4.56

Goal-Goal

2.51

2.61

4.58

No Goal

1.53

7.39

4.71

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.80

7.10

3.29

NG+Un 2.5

1.70

7.39

4.22


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Newcastle vs Fulham at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Newcastle and Fulham for Premier League (England), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Newcastle

2.57

2.08

9.2

Draw

3.29

3.85

-4.4

Fulham

2.89

3.83

-8.5

Over 2.5

2.17

1.98

4.4

Under 2.5

1.72

2.02

-8.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Newcastle, Over 2.5 (9.2 %, 4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Newcastle in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance at home.
Newcastle, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Leeds

A

2

5

L

O

G

12 Dec

West Brom

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Nov

Crystal Palace

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Chelsea

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Nov

Southampton

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

Everton

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Wolves

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Man United

H

1

4

L

O

G


Fulham in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fulham in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance as a guest.
Fulham, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Brighton

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Dec

Liverpool

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Man City

A

0

2

L

U

N

30 Nov

Leicester

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Everton

H

2

3

L

O

G

07 Nov

West Ham

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Nov

West Brom

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Crystal Palace

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newcastle and the red line for guest team, Fulham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Newcastle

21%

35%

17%

27%

Fulham

34%

36%

19%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.21 goals and Fulham to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.5 goals and Fulham to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Newcastle to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.69

1

5.08

2-3

2.14

2

4.46

4+

3.79

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.02

Un 1.5

3.69

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

34.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

3.79

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.26

3.66

3.52

2-3 goals

2.18

3.74

3.65

4+ goals

1.81

4.33

4.63

Ov 1.5

2.03

3.93

3.95

Un 1.5

2.26

3.66

3.52

Ov 2.5

1.68

8.31

3.50

Un 2.5

2.77

2.49

4.23

Ov 3.5

1.81

4.33

4.63

Un 3.5

2.21

3.71

3.60

Goal-Goal

2.48

2.77

4.23

No Goal

1.79

6.57

3.47

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

6.41

3.20

NG+Un 2.5

2.07

6.57

3.16


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Everton vs Arsenal at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Everton and Arsenal for Premier League (England), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Everton

2.35

2.11

4.8

Draw

3.54

3.82

-2.1

Arsenal

3.02

3.77

-6.6

Over 2.5

1.85

2.03

-4.8

Under 2.5

1.99

1.97

0.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Everton, Under 2.5 (4.8 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Everton in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Everton in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance at home.
Everton, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Leicester

A

2

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Chelsea

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Burnley

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Leeds

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Nov

Fulham

A

3

2

W

O

G

07 Nov

Man United

H

1

3

L

O

G

01 Nov

Newcastle

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Oct

Southampton

A

0

2

L

U

N


Arsenal in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Arsenal in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance as a guest.
Arsenal, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Southampton

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Burnley

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Tottenham

A

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Wolves

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Leeds

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Nov

Aston Villa

H

0

3

L

O

N

01 Nov

Man United

A

1

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Leicester

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Everton and the red line for guest team, Arsenal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Everton

21%

34%

22%

22%

Arsenal

34%

36%

19%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Everton to score 1.43 goals and Arsenal to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Everton to score 1.45 goals and Arsenal to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Everton to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.72

1

5.13

2-3

2.07

2

4.15

4+

4.03

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.72

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.03

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.28

3.64

3.49