2020 12 18 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Portimonense vs Famalicao at 18 December 2020
Maritimo vs Belenenses at 19 December 2020
Sp Lisbon vs Farense at 19 December 2020
Tondela vs Moreirense at 19 December 2020
Gil Vicente vs Benfica at 20 December 2020
Porto vs Nacional at 20 December 2020
Pacos Ferreira vs Boavista at 20 December 2020
Santa Clara vs Guimaraes at 21 December 2020


Portimonense vs Famalicao at 18 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Portimonense and Famalicao for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 18 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Portimonense

2.40

2.40

0.0

Draw

3.25

3.64

-3.3

Famalicao

2.97

3.25

-2.9

Over 2.5

2.15

2.31

-3.2

Under 2.5

1.71

1.76

-1.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Portimonense in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portimonense in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance at home.
Portimonense, at home, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Guimaraes

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Nov

Nacional

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Porto

A

1

3

L

O

G

01 Nov

Santa Clara

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Oct

Tondela

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Maritimo

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Oct

Sp Lisbon

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Sep

Gil Vicente

A

0

1

L

U

N


Famalicao in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Famalicao in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Famalicao’s performance as a guest.
Famalicao, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Famalicao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Sp Lisbon

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Nov

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Sp Braga

A

0

1

L

U

N

25 Oct

Boavista

H

2

2

D

O

G

18 Oct

Farense

A

3

3

D

O

G

04 Oct

Rio Ave

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Sep

Belenenses

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Portimonense and the red line for guest team, Famalicao.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Portimonense

28%

35%

21%

16%

Famalicao

37%

31%

22%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portimonense to score 1.25 goals and Famalicao to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portimonense to score 1.25 goals and Famalicao to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.80

0-1

3.14

1

4.63

2-3

2.09

2

4.00

4+

4.93

3

4.37

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

7.63

Un 1.5

3.14

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.31

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

4.93

NoG

1.84

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.48

3.12

3.61

2-3 goals

2.35

4.35

2.90

4+ goals

2.39

3.22

3.69

Ov 1.5

2.36

3.94

3.10

Un 1.5

2.48

3.12

3.61

Ov 2.5

2.06

6.86

2.72

Un 2.5

2.74

2.68

3.81

Ov 3.5

2.39

3.22

3.69

Un 3.5

2.40

3.76

3.15

Goal-Goal

3.01

2.64

3.46

No Goal

2.05

5.32

3.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.28

5.51

2.63

NG+Un 2.5

2.21

5.32

3.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Maritimo vs Belenenses at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Maritimo and Belenenses for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Maritimo

2.39

2.15

4.7

Draw

3.18

3.70

-4.4

Belenenses

3.08

3.79

-6.1

Over 2.5

2.39

2.06

6.7

Under 2.5

1.59

1.94

-11.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Maritimo, Over 2.5 (4.7 %, 6.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Maritimo in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maritimo in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Maritimo’s performance at home.
Maritimo, at home, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maritimo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Dec

Farense

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Nov

Benfica

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Famalicao

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Nacional

H

0

0

D

U

N

25 Oct

Moreirense

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Portimonense

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Oct

Porto

A

3

2

W

O

G

26 Sep

Tondela

H

2

1

W

O

G


Belenenses in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Belenenses in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Belenenses’s performance as a guest.
Belenenses, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Belenenses was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Sp Braga

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Boavista

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Nov

Rio Ave

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Farense

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Oct

Benfica

A

0

2

L

U

N

18 Oct

Moreirense

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Oct

Nacional

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Sep

Famalicao

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Maritimo and the red line for guest team, Belenenses.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Maritimo

22%

32%

24%

21%

Belenenses

30%

46%

9%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maritimo to score 1.17 goals and Belenenses to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maritimo to score 1.44 goals and Belenenses to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Maritimo to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.73

1

4.98

2-3

2.07

2

4.07

4+

4.03

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.06

Un 1.5

3.73

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

34.48

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.84

Ov 3.5

4.03

NoG

2.19

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.73

4.00

2.60

2-3 goals

1.94

3.21

5.83

4+ goals

2.12

4.77

3.14

Ov 1.5

1.99

3.61

4.52

Un 1.5

2.73

4.00

2.60

Ov 2.5

1.66

9.35

3.45

Un 2.5

2.99

2.36

4.15

Ov 3.5

2.12

4.77

3.14

Un 3.5

2.16

3.45

4.04

Goal-Goal

2.36

2.67

4.94

No Goal

1.94

6.82

2.95

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.70

7.54

3.56

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

6.82

2.93


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Sp Lisbon vs Farense at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sp Lisbon and Farense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sp Lisbon

1.31

1.80

-20.8

Draw

5.20

3.95

6.1

Farense

8.95

5.21

8.0

Over 2.5

1.58

2.47

-22.8

Under 2.5

2.30

1.68

16.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Farense, Under 2.5 (6.1 %, 8 %, 16 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance at home.
Sp Lisbon, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Famalicao

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Moreirense

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Nov

Guimaraes

A

4

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Tondela

H

4

0

W

O

N

28 Oct

Gil Vicente

H

3

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Santa Clara

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Porto

H

2

2

D

O

G

04 Oct

Portimonense

A

2

0

W

U

N


Farense in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Farense in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance as a guest.
Farense, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 8.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Dec

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Sp Braga

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Boavista

H

3

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Belenenses

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Oct

Rio Ave

H

0

1

L

U

N

18 Oct

Famalicao

H

3

3

D

O

G

04 Oct

Benfica

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Sep

Nacional

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sp Lisbon and the red line for guest team, Farense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sp Lisbon

23%

33%

24%

20%

Farense

52%

24%

20%

3%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 2.38 goals and Farense to score 0.58 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.96 goals in the game and the home team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.8 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 1.43 goals and Farense to score 0.74 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and the home team Sp Lisbon to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.40

0-1

2.91

1

4.44

2-3

2.04

2

3.98

4+

5.99

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.52

4

9.09

Un 1.5

2.91

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.46

6+

142.86

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.70

Ov 3.5

5.99

NoG

1.58

Un 3.5

1.20

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.01

2.89

6.37

2-3 goals

1.68

6.29

4.09

4+ goals

1.84

2.93

8.79

Ov 1.5

1.71

4.87

4.73

Un 1.5

2.01

2.89

6.37

Ov 2.5

1.58

7.14

4.38

Un 2.5

2.00

3.02

5.95

Ov 3.5

1.84

2.93

8.79

Un 3.5

1.80

4.24

4.80

Goal-Goal

2.48

2.74

4.30

No Goal

1.56

5.31

5.91

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.96

5.12

3.40

NG+Un 2.5

1.73

5.31

5.17


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Tondela vs Moreirense at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Tondela and Moreirense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Tondela

2.43

2.79

-5.3

Draw

3.10

3.65

-4.9

Moreirense

3.02

2.72

3.7

Over 2.5

2.45

2.40

0.9

Under 2.5

1.55

1.72

-6.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Moreirense, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Tondela in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tondela in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance at home.
Tondela, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Porto

A

3

4

L

O

G

27 Nov

Guimaraes

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Santa Clara

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Sp Lisbon

A

0

4

L

O

N

23 Oct

Portimonense

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Gil Vicente

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Oct

Sp Braga

H

0

4

L

O

N

26 Sep

Maritimo

A

1

2

L

O

G


Moreirense in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Moreirense in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance as a guest.
Moreirense, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 8.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Moreirense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Gil Vicente

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Dec

Pacos Ferreira

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Sp Lisbon

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Rio Ave

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Oct

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

Belenenses

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Oct

Boavista

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Sep

Benfica

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tondela and the red line for guest team, Moreirense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Tondela

32%

37%

19%

12%

Moreirense

37%

24%

29%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tondela to score 1.14 goals and Moreirense to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tondela to score 1.11 goals and Moreirense to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.40

0-1

3.02

1

4.72

2-3

2.07

2

3.97

4+

5.32

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.26

Un 1.5

3.02

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.34

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.75

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.45

2.78

4.30

2-3 goals