# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Ponferradina vs Oviedo at 18 December 2020**** Mallorca vs Fuenlabrada at 19 December 2020**** Sabadell vs Castellon at 19 December 2020**** Zaragoza vs Lugo at 19 December 2020**** Alcorcon vs Cartagena at 20 December 2020**** Espanol vs Almeria at 20 December 2020**** Malaga vs Logrones at 20 December 2020**** Vallecano vs Las Palmas at 20 December 2020**** Mirandes vs Albacete at 21 December 2020**** Sp Gijon vs Leganes at 21 December 2020**** Tenerife vs Girona at 21 December 2020**

###
Ponferradina vs Oviedo at 18 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ponferradina** and **Oviedo** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **18 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ponferradina |
3.23 |
2.44 |
10.0 |

Draw |
2.95 |
3.50 |
-5.3 |

Oviedo |
2.41 |
3.28 |
-11.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.69 |
2.45 |
3.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.46 |
1.69 |
-9.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Ponferradina, Over 2.5 (10 %, 3.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 9%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ponferradina** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ponferradina** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance** at home**.

Ponferradina,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Dec |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Logrones |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Leganes |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Zaragoza |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Nov |
Malaga |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Mallorca |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**Oviedo** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Oviedo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oviedo** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Oviedo** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance** as a guest**.

Oviedo,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Oviedo scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Dec |
Tenerife |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Sabadell |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Dec |
Alcorcon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Nov |
Almeria |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Nov |
Zaragoza |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Castellon |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ponferradina** and the red line for guest team, **Oviedo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ponferradina |
28% |
36% |
24% |
12% |

Oviedo |
35% |
37% |
20% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ponferradina** to score **0.89 ** goals and **Oviedo** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.98** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.2** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ponferradina** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Oviedo** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.31 |
0-1 |
3.10 |

1 |
4.42 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.72 |
4+ |
5.49 |

3 |
4.42 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.48 |

4 |
8.00 |
Un 1.5 |
3.10 |

5 |
21.74 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.45 |

6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.69 |

Gg |
2.13 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.49 |

NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.60 |
3.33 |
3.17 |

2-3 goals |
2.30 |
3.81 |
3.30 |

4+ goals |
2.56 |
3.08 |
3.50 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.37 |
3.58 |
3.35 |

Un 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.33 |
3.17 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.92 |
2.78 |

Un 2.5 |
2.85 |
2.61 |
3.77 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.56 |
3.08 |
3.50 |

Un 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.60 |
3.25 |

Goal-Goal |
2.96 |
2.49 |
3.85 |

No Goal |
2.11 |
5.46 |
2.91 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
5.76 |
2.79 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
5.46 |
2.94 |

####
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###
Mallorca vs Fuenlabrada at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Mallorca** and **Fuenlabrada** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Mallorca |
1.65 |
1.81 |
-5.4 |

Draw |
3.57 |
4.00 |
-3.0 |

Fuenlabrada |
5.74 |
5.08 |
2.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.51 |
2.14 |
6.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.88 |
-12.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Fuenlabrada, Over 2.5 (2.3 %, 6.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 9%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Mallorca** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Mallorca scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mallorca** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Mallorca** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mallorca’s performance** at home**.

Mallorca,** at home**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 20 points, 74.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Mallorca scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mallorca was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Leganes |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Dec |
Castellon |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Dec |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Logrones |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

25 Nov |
Cartagena |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Sp Gijon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Girona |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Ponferradina |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Fuenlabrada** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fuenlabrada** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada** didn’t score to any of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance** as a guest**.

Fuenlabrada,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Mirandes |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Zaragoza |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Malaga |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Sabadell |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Oviedo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Espanol |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Alcorcon |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Mallorca** and the red line for guest team, **Fuenlabrada. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Mallorca |
17% |
34% |
26% |
22% |

Fuenlabrada |
42% |
35% |
16% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Mallorca** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Fuenlabrada** to score **0.62 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.08** goals in the game and the home team **Mallorca ** to win by **0.84** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Mallorca** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Fuenlabrada** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Mallorca ** to win by **0.66** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.65 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.67 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.65 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
2.08 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.67 |

NoG |
1.93 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.94 |
3.81 |
4.49 |

2-3 goals |
1.72 |
4.29 |
5.37 |

4+ goals |
1.86 |
3.69 |
5.22 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.76 |
4.09 |
5.32 |

Un 1.5 |
1.94 |
3.81 |
4.49 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.55 |
8.05 |
4.32 |

Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.78 |
5.97 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.86 |
3.69 |
5.22 |

Un 3.5 |
1.79 |
4.10 |
5.03 |

Goal-Goal |
2.31 |
2.72 |
5.01 |

No Goal |
1.50 |
7.18 |
5.12 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
6.24 |
3.77 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.64 |
7.18 |
4.63 |

####
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###
Sabadell vs Castellon at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sabadell** and **Castellon** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sabadell |
2.43 |
2.32 |
2.0 |

Draw |
3.08 |
3.55 |
-4.3 |

Castellon |
3.14 |
3.48 |
-3.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.62 |
2.40 |
3.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.52 |
1.72 |
-7.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sabadell, Over 2.5 (2 %, 3.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 9%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sabadell** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sabadell scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sabadell** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sabadell scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sabadell’s performance** at home**.

Sabadell,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sabadell scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sabadell was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
Cartagena |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Dec |
Alcorcon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
Oviedo |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Dec |
Tenerife |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Sp Gijon |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Las Palmas |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Nov |
Logrones |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Castellon** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Castellon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Castellon** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Castellon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Castellon’s performance** as a guest**.

Castellon,** as a guest**, had one win, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Castellon scored in 7 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Castellon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Albacete |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

07 Dec |
Mallorca |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Mirandes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Alcorcon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Vallecano |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Nov |
Cartagena |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Oviedo |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sabadell** and the red line for guest team, **Castellon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sabadell |
26% |
35% |
25% |
14% |

Castellon |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sabadell** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Castellon** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.04** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sabadell** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Castellon** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.75 |
0-1 |
3.17 |

1 |
4.50 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.32 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
7.81 |
Un 1.5 |
3.17 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |

Gg |
2.10 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.32 |

NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.52 |
3.39 |
3.25 |

2-3 goals |
2.18 |
3.86 |
3.53 |

4+ goals |
2.41 |
3.13 |
3.76 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.63 |
3.59 |

Un 1.5 |
2.52 |
3.39 |
3.25 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.97 |
2.99 |

Un 2.5 |
2.74 |
2.63 |
3.94 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.13 |
3.76 |

Un 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.66 |
3.42 |

Goal-Goal |
2.82 |
2.52 |
4.03 |

No Goal |
2.00 |
5.65 |
3.09 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
5.78 |
2.94 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
5.65 |
3.07 |

####
Go to Top

###
Zaragoza vs Lugo at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Zaragoza** and **Lugo** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Zaragoza |
2.37 |
2.36 |
0.2 |

Draw |
2.97 |
3.53 |
-5.3 |

Lugo |
3.26 |
3.41 |
-1.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.68 |
2.42 |
4.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.45 |
1.71 |
-10.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Zaragoza, Over 2.5 (0.2 %, 4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 9%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Zaragoza** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zaragoza** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance** at home**.

Zaragoza,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Almeria |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Castellon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Espanol |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Nov |
Vallecano |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Ponferradina |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Nov |
Oviedo |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Lugo** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lugo** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance** as a guest**.

Lugo,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lugo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Dec |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Mirandes |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Nov |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Oviedo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Nov |
Alcorcon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Albacete |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Espanol |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Zaragoza** and the red line for guest team, **Lugo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Zaragoza |
27% |
35% |
24% |
13% |

Lugo |
35% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Zaragoza** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Lugo** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.98** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Zaragoza** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Lugo** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.25** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.53 |
0-1 |
3.14 |

1 |
4.48 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.41 |

3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
7.87 |
Un 1.5 |
3.14 |

5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.42 |

6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.71 |

Gg |
2.11 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.41 |

NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.56 |