2020 12 18 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ponferradina vs Oviedo at 18 December 2020
Mallorca vs Fuenlabrada at 19 December 2020
Sabadell vs Castellon at 19 December 2020
Zaragoza vs Lugo at 19 December 2020
Alcorcon vs Cartagena at 20 December 2020
Espanol vs Almeria at 20 December 2020
Malaga vs Logrones at 20 December 2020
Vallecano vs Las Palmas at 20 December 2020
Mirandes vs Albacete at 21 December 2020
Sp Gijon vs Leganes at 21 December 2020
Tenerife vs Girona at 21 December 2020


Ponferradina vs Oviedo at 18 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Ponferradina and Oviedo for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 18 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ponferradina

3.23

2.44

10.0

Draw

2.95

3.50

-5.3

Oviedo

2.41

3.28

-11.0

Over 2.5

2.69

2.45

3.6

Under 2.5

1.46

1.69

-9.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ponferradina, Over 2.5 (10 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ponferradina in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ponferradina in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance at home.
Ponferradina, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Dec

Lugo

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Las Palmas

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Dec

Logrones

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Leganes

H

3

2

W

O

G

25 Nov

Fuenlabrada

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Zaragoza

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Nov

Malaga

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Mallorca

A

0

3

L

O

N


Oviedo in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oviedo in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance as a guest.
Oviedo, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Dec

Tenerife

H

4

2

W

O

G

06 Dec

Sabadell

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Dec

Alcorcon

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Nov

Almeria

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Lugo

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Fuenlabrada

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Nov

Zaragoza

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Castellon

H

4

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ponferradina and the red line for guest team, Oviedo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ponferradina

28%

36%

24%

12%

Oviedo

35%

37%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 0.89 goals and Oviedo to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.98 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 1.21 goals and Oviedo to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.31

0-1

3.10

1

4.42

2-3

2.02

2

3.72

4+

5.49

3

4.42

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

8.00

Un 1.5

3.10

5

21.74

Ov 2.5

2.45

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

5.49

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.60

3.33

3.17

2-3 goals

2.30

3.81

3.30

4+ goals

2.56

3.08

3.50

Ov 1.5

2.37

3.58

3.35

Un 1.5

2.60

3.33

3.17

Ov 2.5

2.02

6.92

2.78

Un 2.5

2.85

2.61

3.77

Ov 3.5

2.56

3.08

3.50

Un 3.5

2.41

3.60

3.25

Goal-Goal

2.96

2.49

3.85

No Goal

2.11

5.46

2.91

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.14

5.76

2.79

NG+Un 2.5

2.22

5.46

2.94


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Mallorca vs Fuenlabrada at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Mallorca and Fuenlabrada for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Mallorca

1.65

1.81

-5.4

Draw

3.57

4.00

-3.0

Fuenlabrada

5.74

5.08

2.3

Over 2.5

2.51

2.14

6.9

Under 2.5

1.53

1.88

-12.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Fuenlabrada, Over 2.5 (2.3 %, 6.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mallorca in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mallorca in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mallorca’s performance at home.
Mallorca, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 20 points, 74.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mallorca was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Leganes

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Dec

Castellon

H

3

1

W

O

G

03 Dec

Almeria

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

Logrones

H

4

0

W

O

N

25 Nov

Cartagena

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Sp Gijon

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Nov

Girona

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Ponferradina

H

3

0

W

O

N


Fuenlabrada in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fuenlabrada in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance as a guest.
Fuenlabrada, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Mirandes

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Zaragoza

A

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

Malaga

H

0

2

L

U

N

28 Nov

Sabadell

A

2

1

W

O

G

25 Nov

Ponferradina

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Oviedo

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Espanol

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Alcorcon

A

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mallorca and the red line for guest team, Fuenlabrada.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Mallorca

17%

34%

26%

22%

Fuenlabrada

42%

35%

16%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mallorca to score 1.46 goals and Fuenlabrada to score 0.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.08 goals in the game and the home team Mallorca to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mallorca to score 1.54 goals and Fuenlabrada to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Mallorca to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.65

1

4.95

2-3

1.96

2

3.89

4+

4.67

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.65

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

2.08

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.94

3.81

4.49

2-3 goals

1.72

4.29

5.37

4+ goals

1.86

3.69

5.22

Ov 1.5

1.76

4.09

5.32

Un 1.5

1.94

3.81

4.49

Ov 2.5

1.55

8.05

4.32

Un 2.5

2.12

2.78

5.97

Ov 3.5

1.86

3.69

5.22

Un 3.5

1.79

4.10

5.03

Goal-Goal

2.31

2.72

5.01

No Goal

1.50

7.18

5.12

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.74

6.24

3.77

NG+Un 2.5

1.64

7.18

4.63


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sabadell vs Castellon at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sabadell and Castellon for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sabadell

2.43

2.32

2.0

Draw

3.08

3.55

-4.3

Castellon

3.14

3.48

-3.1

Over 2.5

2.62

2.40

3.5

Under 2.5

1.52

1.72

-7.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sabadell, Over 2.5 (2 %, 3.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sabadell in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sabadell in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sabadell’s performance at home.
Sabadell, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sabadell was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Cartagena

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Dec

Alcorcon

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Oviedo

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Dec

Tenerife

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Fuenlabrada

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Nov

Sp Gijon

A

1

3

L

O

G

22 Nov

Las Palmas

H

3

1

W

O

G

15 Nov

Logrones

A

0

1

L

U

N


Castellon in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Castellon in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Castellon’s performance as a guest.
Castellon, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Castellon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Albacete

H

3

0

W

O

N

07 Dec

Mallorca

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Dec

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Mirandes

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Alcorcon

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Nov

Vallecano

A

1

2

L

O

G

15 Nov

Cartagena

H

2

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Oviedo

A

0

4

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sabadell and the red line for guest team, Castellon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sabadell

26%

35%

25%

14%

Castellon

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sabadell to score 1.11 goals and Castellon to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.04 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sabadell to score 1.26 goals and Castellon to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.17

1

4.50

2-3

2.01

2

3.73

4+

5.32

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.81

Un 1.5

3.17

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.39

3.25

2-3 goals

2.18

3.86

3.53

4+ goals

2.41

3.13

3.76

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.63

3.59

Un 1.5

2.52

3.39

3.25

Ov 2.5

1.92

6.97

2.99

Un 2.5

2.74

2.63

3.94

Ov 3.5

2.41

3.13

3.76

Un 3.5

2.30

3.66

3.42

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.52

4.03

No Goal

2.00

5.65

3.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

5.78

2.94

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

5.65

3.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Zaragoza vs Lugo at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Lugo for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Zaragoza

2.37

2.36

0.2

Draw

2.97

3.53

-5.3

Lugo

3.26

3.41

-1.3

Over 2.5

2.68

2.42

4.0

Under 2.5

1.45

1.71

-10.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Zaragoza, Over 2.5 (0.2 %, 4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 9%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Zaragoza in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zaragoza in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance at home.
Zaragoza, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Sp Gijon

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Dec

Almeria

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Fuenlabrada

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Castellon

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Nov

Espanol

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Nov

Vallecano

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Ponferradina

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Nov

Oviedo

H

1

2

L

O

G


Lugo in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lugo in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance as a guest.
Lugo, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lugo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Dec

Ponferradina

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Mirandes

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Dec

Las Palmas

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Nov

Malaga

A

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

Oviedo

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Nov

Alcorcon

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Nov

Albacete

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Espanol

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Zaragoza and the red line for guest team, Lugo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Zaragoza

27%

35%

24%

13%

Lugo

35%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.09 goals and Lugo to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.98 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.24 goals and Lugo to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.53

0-1

3.14

1

4.48

2-3

2.02

2

3.73

4+

5.41

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

7.87

Un 1.5

3.14

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.42

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

5.41

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.56