# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Fiorentina vs Verona at 19 December 2020**** Sampdoria vs Crotone at 19 December 2020**** Parma vs Juventus at 19 December 2020**** Torino vs Bologna at 20 December 2020**** Sassuolo vs Milan at 20 December 2020**** Inter vs Spezia at 20 December 2020**** Cagliari vs Udinese at 20 December 2020**** Benevento vs Genoa at 20 December 2020**** Atalanta vs Roma at 20 December 2020**** Lazio vs Napoli at 20 December 2020**

###
Fiorentina vs Verona at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Fiorentina** and **Verona** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Fiorentina |
2.20 |
2.62 |
-7.3 |

Draw |
3.40 |
3.64 |
-1.9 |

Verona |
3.39 |
2.91 |
4.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.05 |
-1.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.87 |
1.95 |
-2.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Verona (4.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Fiorentina** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fiorentina** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fiorentina’s performance** at home**.

Fiorentina,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fiorentina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Sassuolo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Atalanta |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

07 Dec |
Genoa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Nov |
Milan |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Benevento |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Parma |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Roma |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Udinese |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Verona** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Verona scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Verona** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Verona** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Verona’s performance** as a guest**.

Verona,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Verona scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Verona was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Sampdoria |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Lazio |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Cagliari |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Atalanta |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Sassuolo |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Milan |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Nov |
Benevento |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Juventus |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Fiorentina** and the red line for guest team, **Verona. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Fiorentina |
25% |
38% |
19% |
18% |

Verona |
28% |
36% |
20% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Fiorentina** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Verona** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Fiorentina ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Fiorentina** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Verona** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.69 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
3.95 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.69 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |

6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.49 |
3.82 |
2.98 |

2-3 goals |
2.77 |
3.40 |
2.90 |

4+ goals |
2.53 |
3.89 |
2.88 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.68 |
3.56 |
2.89 |

Un 1.5 |
2.49 |
3.82 |
2.98 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
7.49 |
2.40 |

Un 2.5 |
3.17 |
2.43 |
3.66 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.89 |
2.88 |

Un 3.5 |
2.66 |
3.54 |
2.93 |

Goal-Goal |
3.20 |
2.62 |
3.27 |

No Goal |
2.17 |
6.52 |
2.59 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
6.11 |
2.42 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
6.52 |
2.66 |

####
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###
Sampdoria vs Crotone at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sampdoria** and **Crotone** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sampdoria |
1.86 |
1.92 |
-1.7 |

Draw |
3.64 |
3.69 |
-0.4 |

Crotone |
4.35 |
4.78 |
-2.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.86 |
2.02 |
-4.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.98 |
1.98 |
0.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sampdoria** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sampdoria** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sampdoria** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sampdoria’s performance** at home**.

Sampdoria,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sampdoria** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sampdoria was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Verona |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Napoli |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Milan |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Nov |
Torino |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Bologna |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Cagliari |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Genoa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
Atalanta |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Crotone** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crotone** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance** as a guest**.

Crotone,** as a guest**, had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Udinese |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Spezia |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Napoli |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Nov |
Bologna |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Lazio |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Torino |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Atalanta |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Cagliari |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sampdoria** and the red line for guest team, **Crotone. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sampdoria |
24% |
12% |
45% |
18% |

Crotone |
44% |
21% |
27% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sampdoria** to score **1.69 ** goals and **Crotone** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and the home team **Sampdoria ** to win by **0.77** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sampdoria** to score **1.57 ** goals and **Crotone** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the home team **Sampdoria ** to win by **0.6** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.26 |
0-1 |
4.72 |

1 |
9.62 |
2-3 |
1.92 |

2 |
3.41 |
4+ |
3.76 |

3 |
4.41 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.27 |

4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
4.72 |

5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
2.38 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.76 |

NoG |
1.73 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.08 |
1.96 |
4.08 |

2-3 goals |
1.37 |
20.80 |
4.48 |

4+ goals |
2.99 |
1.94 |
6.65 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.68 |
4.85 |
5.04 |

Un 1.5 |
4.08 |
1.96 |
4.08 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
3.60 |
5.54 |

Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
3.80 |
4.24 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.99 |
1.94 |
6.65 |

Un 3.5 |
1.70 |
5.50 |
4.36 |

Goal-Goal |
2.26 |
2.59 |
5.83 |

No Goal |
1.73 |
5.35 |
4.25 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.88 |
5.49 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
5.35 |
4.03 |

####
Go to Top

###
Parma vs Juventus at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Parma** and **Juventus** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Parma |
8.07 |
2.70 |
24.6 |

Draw |
5.04 |
3.75 |
6.8 |

Juventus |
1.39 |
2.77 |
-35.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.93 |
-9.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.35 |
2.07 |
5.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Parma, Draw, Under 2.5 (24.6 %, 6.8 %, 5.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Parma** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Parma scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Parma** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Parma scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Parma’s performance** at home**.

Parma,** at home**, had one win, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Parma scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Parma was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Cagliari |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Milan |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Benevento |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Nov |
Genoa |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Roma |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

07 Nov |
Fiorentina |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Inter |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Spezia |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Juventus** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Juventus** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance** as a guest**.

Juventus,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Atalanta |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Genoa |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Torino |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Benevento |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Cagliari |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Lazio |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Nov |
Spezia |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Verona |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Parma** and the red line for guest team, **Juventus. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Parma |
26% |
34% |
23% |
17% |

Juventus |
26% |
38% |
18% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Parma** to score **0.63 ** goals and **Juventus** to score **2.31 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.94** goals in the game and the guest team **Juventus ** to win by **1.68** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Parma** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Juventus** to score **1.3 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.01** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.97 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.12 |

2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
3.62 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
5.92 |
Un 1.5 |
3.97 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |

6+ |
30.30 |
Un 2.5 |
2.07 |

Gg |
1.82 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.62 |

NoG |
2.22 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.90 |
3.76 |
2.57 |

2-3 goals |
2.48 |
3.72 |
3.05 |

4+ goals |
2.94 |
3.73 |
2.56 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.63 |
3.72 |
2.84 |

Un 1.5 |
2.90 |
3.76 |
2.57 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |
6.97 |
2.38 |

Un 2.5 |
3.32 |
2.49 |
3.36 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.94 |
3.73 |
2.56 |

Un 3.5 |
2.61 |
3.73 |
2.86 |

Goal-Goal |
3.04 |
2.74 |
3.27 |

No Goal |
2.37 |
6.72 |
2.33 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.34 |
5.72 |
2.52 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.45 |
6.72 |
2.48 |

####
Go to Top

###
Torino vs Bologna at 20 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Torino** and **Bologna** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **20 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Torino |
2.63 |
2.80 |
-2.3 |

Draw |
3.52 |
2.57 |
10.5 |

Bologna |
2.64 |
3.94 |
-12.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.69 |
2.52 |
-19.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.20 |
1.66 |
14.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Under 2.5 (10.5 %, 14.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Torino** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Torino** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance** at home**.

Torino,** at home**, had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Dec |
Roma |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Udinese |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Juventus |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Nov |
Sampdoria |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Inter |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Crotone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Nov |
Genoa |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Lazio |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**Bologna** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bologna scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bologna** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Bologna** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Bologna’s performance** as a guest**.

Bologna,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bologna scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bologna was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Spezia |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Roma |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Inter |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Crotone |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Sampdoria |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Napoli |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Cagliari |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Lazio |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Torino** and the red line for guest team, **Bologna. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Torino |
37% |
2% |
53% |
8% |

Bologna |
50% |
2% |
37% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Torino** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Bologna** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.82** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Torino** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Bologna** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
5.38 |
0-1 |
4.93 |

1 |
58.82 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
2.50 |
4+ |
3.38 |

3 |
9.90 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.25 |

4 |
5.08 |
Un 1.5 |
4.93 |

5 |
11.11 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.52 |

6+ |
111.11 |
Un 2.5 |
1.66 |

Gg |
3.19 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.38 |