2020 12 18 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Fiorentina vs Verona at 19 December 2020
Sampdoria vs Crotone at 19 December 2020
Parma vs Juventus at 19 December 2020
Torino vs Bologna at 20 December 2020
Sassuolo vs Milan at 20 December 2020
Inter vs Spezia at 20 December 2020
Cagliari vs Udinese at 20 December 2020
Benevento vs Genoa at 20 December 2020
Atalanta vs Roma at 20 December 2020
Lazio vs Napoli at 20 December 2020


Fiorentina vs Verona at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Fiorentina and Verona for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Fiorentina

2.20

2.62

-7.3

Draw

3.40

3.64

-1.9

Verona

3.39

2.91

4.9

Over 2.5

1.98

2.05

-1.7

Under 2.5

1.87

1.95

-2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Verona (4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Fiorentina in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fiorentina in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fiorentina’s performance at home.
Fiorentina, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fiorentina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Sassuolo

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Atalanta

A

0

3

L

O

N

07 Dec

Genoa

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Nov

Milan

A

0

2

L

U

N

22 Nov

Benevento

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Parma

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Nov

Roma

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Oct

Udinese

H

3

2

W

O

G


Verona in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Verona in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Verona’s performance as a guest.
Verona, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Verona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Sampdoria

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Lazio

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Cagliari

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Atalanta

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Sassuolo

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Milan

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Nov

Benevento

H

3

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Juventus

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fiorentina and the red line for guest team, Verona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Fiorentina

25%

38%

19%

18%

Verona

28%

36%

20%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fiorentina to score 1.43 goals and Verona to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Fiorentina to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fiorentina to score 1.29 goals and Verona to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.69

1

5.00

2-3

2.10

2

4.13

4+

3.95

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.69

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.49

3.82

2.98

2-3 goals

2.77

3.40

2.90

4+ goals

2.53

3.89

2.88

Ov 1.5

2.68

3.56

2.89

Un 1.5

2.49

3.82

2.98

Ov 2.5

2.22

7.49

2.40

Un 2.5

3.17

2.43

3.66

Ov 3.5

2.53

3.89

2.88

Un 3.5

2.66

3.54

2.93

Goal-Goal

3.20

2.62

3.27

No Goal

2.17

6.52

2.59

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.36

6.11

2.42

NG+Un 2.5

2.30

6.52

2.66


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Sampdoria vs Crotone at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sampdoria and Crotone for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sampdoria

1.86

1.92

-1.7

Draw

3.64

3.69

-0.4

Crotone

4.35

4.78

-2.1

Over 2.5

1.86

2.02

-4.3

Under 2.5

1.98

1.98

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sampdoria in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sampdoria in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sampdoria’s performance at home.
Sampdoria, at home, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sampdoria was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Verona

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Napoli

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Milan

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Nov

Torino

A

2

2

D

O

G

22 Nov

Bologna

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Cagliari

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

Genoa

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Atalanta

A

3

1

W

O

G


Crotone in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crotone in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance as a guest.
Crotone, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Udinese

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Spezia

H

4

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Napoli

H

0

4

L

O

N

29 Nov

Bologna

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Lazio

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Torino

A

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Atalanta

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Oct

Cagliari

A

2

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sampdoria and the red line for guest team, Crotone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sampdoria

24%

12%

45%

18%

Crotone

44%

21%

27%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.69 goals and Crotone to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Sampdoria to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.57 goals and Crotone to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Sampdoria to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.26

0-1

4.72

1

9.62

2-3

1.92

2

3.41

4+

3.76

3

4.41

Ov 1.5

1.27

4

5.85

Un 1.5

4.72

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

2.38

Ov 3.5

3.76

NoG

1.73

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.08

1.96

4.08

2-3 goals

1.37

20.80

4.48

4+ goals

2.99

1.94

6.65

Ov 1.5

1.68

4.85

5.04

Un 1.5

4.08

1.96

4.08

Ov 2.5

1.85

3.60

5.54

Un 2.5

2.00

3.80

4.24

Ov 3.5

2.99

1.94

6.65

Un 3.5

1.70

5.50

4.36

Goal-Goal

2.26

2.59

5.83

No Goal

1.73

5.35

4.25

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.12

2.88

5.49

NG+Un 2.5

1.90

5.35

4.03


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Parma vs Juventus at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Parma and Juventus for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Parma

8.07

2.70

24.6

Draw

5.04

3.75

6.8

Juventus

1.39

2.77

-35.8

Over 2.5

1.62

1.93

-9.9

Under 2.5

2.35

2.07

5.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Parma, Draw, Under 2.5 (24.6 %, 6.8 %, 5.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Parma in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Parma in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Parma’s performance at home.
Parma, at home, had one win, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Parma was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Cagliari

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Dec

Milan

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Dec

Benevento

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Nov

Genoa

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Roma

A

0

3

L

O

N

07 Nov

Fiorentina

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Inter

A

2

2

D

O

G

25 Oct

Spezia

H

2

2

D

O

G


Juventus in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance as a guest.
Juventus, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Atalanta

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Genoa

A

3

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Torino

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Benevento

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Cagliari

H

2

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Lazio

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Spezia

A

4

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Verona

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Parma and the red line for guest team, Juventus.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Parma

26%

34%

23%

17%

Juventus

26%

38%

18%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Parma to score 0.63 goals and Juventus to score 2.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.94 goals in the game and the guest team Juventus to win by 1.68 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Parma to score 1.31 goals and Juventus to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.97

1

5.41

2-3

2.12

2

4.31

4+

3.62

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

5.92

Un 1.5

3.97

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

30.30

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.82

Ov 3.5

3.62

NoG

2.22

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.90

3.76

2.57

2-3 goals

2.48

3.72

3.05

4+ goals

2.94

3.73

2.56

Ov 1.5

2.63

3.72

2.84

Un 1.5

2.90

3.76

2.57

Ov 2.5

2.29

6.97

2.38

Un 2.5

3.32

2.49

3.36

Ov 3.5

2.94

3.73

2.56

Un 3.5

2.61

3.73

2.86

Goal-Goal

3.04

2.74

3.27

No Goal

2.37

6.72

2.33

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.34

5.72

2.52

NG+Un 2.5

2.45

6.72

2.48


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Torino vs Bologna at 20 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Torino and Bologna for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 20 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torino

2.63

2.80

-2.3

Draw

3.52

2.57

10.5

Bologna

2.64

3.94

-12.5

Over 2.5

1.69

2.52

-19.5

Under 2.5

2.20

1.66

14.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (10.5 %, 14.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torino in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torino in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance at home.
Torino, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Dec

Roma

A

1

3

L

O

G

12 Dec

Udinese

H

2

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Juventus

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Nov

Sampdoria

H

2

2

D

O

G

22 Nov

Inter

A

2

4

L

O

G

08 Nov

Crotone

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Nov

Genoa

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Lazio

H

3

4

L

O

G


Bologna in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bologna in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bologna’s performance as a guest.
Bologna, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bologna was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Spezia

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Dec

Roma

H

1

5

L

O

G

05 Dec

Inter

A

1

3

L

O

G

29 Nov

Crotone

H

1

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Sampdoria

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Napoli

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Cagliari

H

3

2

W

O

G

24 Oct

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torino and the red line for guest team, Bologna.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Torino

37%

2%

53%

8%

Bologna

50%

2%

37%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torino to score 1.41 goals and Bologna to score 1.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torino to score 1.32 goals and Bologna to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

5.38

0-1

4.93

1

58.82

2-3

2.00

2

2.50

4+

3.38

3

9.90

Ov 1.5

1.25

4

5.08

Un 1.5

4.93

5

11.11

Ov 2.5

2.52

6+

111.11

Un 2.5

1.66

Gg

3.19

Ov 3.5

3.38