# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Virtus Entella vs Pordenone at 18 December 2020**** Frosinone vs Salernitana at 18 December 2020**** Pescara vs Monza at 19 December 2020**** Vicenza vs Ascoli at 19 December 2020**** Venezia vs Spal at 19 December 2020**** Reggina vs Cittadella at 19 December 2020**** Cremonese vs Cosenza at 19 December 2020**** Chievo vs Empoli at 19 December 2020**** Brescia vs Reggiana at 19 December 2020**** Lecce vs Pisa at 19 December 2020**

###
Virtus Entella vs Pordenone at 18 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Virtus Entella** and **Pordenone** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **18 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Virtus Entella |
3.37 |
2.80 |
6.0 |

Draw |
3.10 |
3.29 |
-1.9 |

Pordenone |
2.24 |
2.95 |
-10.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.29 |
-2.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.77 |
-2.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Virtus Entella (6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Virtus Entella** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Virtus Entella** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance** at home**.

Virtus Entella,** at home**, had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Monza |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Empoli |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Cremonese |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Nov |
Spal |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Ascoli |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Venezia |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Lecce |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Brescia |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Pordenone** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Pordenone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pordenone** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Pordenone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance** as a guest**.

Pordenone,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Pordenone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Brescia |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Pisa |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Dec |
Empoli |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Pescara |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Monza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Ascoli |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Reggina |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Virtus Entella** and the red line for guest team, **Pordenone. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Virtus Entella |
22% |
49% |
15% |
14% |

Pordenone |
27% |
40% |
20% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Virtus Entella** to score **0.99 ** goals and **Pordenone** to score **1.31 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and the guest team **Pordenone ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Virtus Entella** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Pordenone** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.67 |
0-1 |
3.56 |

1 |
4.52 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.55 |
4+ |
4.76 |

3 |
4.42 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.56 |

5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.78 |

Gg |
1.76 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.76 |

NoG |
2.31 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.13 |
4.68 |
3.16 |

2-3 goals |
3.63 |
2.59 |
2.95 |

4+ goals |
2.47 |
4.38 |
2.73 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.19 |
2.94 |
2.88 |

Un 1.5 |
2.13 |
4.68 |
3.16 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |
9.08 |
2.14 |

Un 2.5 |
3.25 |
2.20 |
4.20 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.47 |
4.38 |
2.73 |

Un 3.5 |
2.90 |
3.08 |
3.02 |

Goal-Goal |
3.88 |
2.32 |
3.20 |

No Goal |
2.05 |
7.20 |
2.68 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.54 |
7.73 |
2.10 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
7.20 |
2.74 |

####
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###
Frosinone vs Salernitana at 18 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Frosinone** and **Salernitana** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **18 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Frosinone |
2.03 |
2.34 |
-6.5 |

Draw |
3.17 |
3.64 |
-4.1 |

Salernitana |
3.87 |
3.38 |
3.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.21 |
-1.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.82 |
-2.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Salernitana (3.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Frosinone** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Frosinone** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance** at home**.

Frosinone,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Reggiana |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Lecce |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Chievo |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Brescia |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Nov |
Cosenza |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Monza |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Cremonese |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Pescara |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Salernitana** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Salernitana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salernitana** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Salernitana** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance** as a guest**.

Salernitana,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Salernitana scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Lecce |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Brescia |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Cosenza |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Nov |
Cremonese |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Nov |
Spal |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Ascoli |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Vicenza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Frosinone** and the red line for guest team, **Salernitana. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Frosinone |
25% |
32% |
30% |
13% |

Salernitana |
32% |
39% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Frosinone** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Salernitana** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and the home team **Frosinone ** to win by **0.52** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Frosinone** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Salernitana** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.58 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.72 |
4+ |
4.85 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.58 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.85 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.76 |
3.53 |
2.82 |

2-3 goals |
2.03 |
4.07 |
3.83 |

4+ goals |
2.78 |
2.94 |
3.32 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.20 |
3.67 |
3.67 |

Un 1.5 |
2.76 |
3.53 |
2.82 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
6.43 |
3.04 |

Un 2.5 |
2.80 |
2.67 |
3.73 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.78 |
2.94 |
3.32 |

Un 3.5 |
2.24 |
3.86 |
3.40 |

Goal-Goal |
2.66 |
2.61 |
4.15 |

No Goal |
2.06 |
6.16 |
2.83 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
5.50 |
3.13 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.15 |
6.16 |
2.87 |

####
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###
Pescara vs Monza at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Pescara** and **Monza** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Pescara |
3.78 |
2.65 |
11.3 |

Draw |
3.33 |
3.42 |
-0.8 |

Monza |
1.97 |
3.02 |
-17.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.26 |
-6.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.79 |
1.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Pescara, Under 2.5 (11.3 %, 1.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Pescara** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Pescara scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pescara** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Pescara scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance** at home**.

Pescara,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Pescara scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Pisa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Vicenza |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Dec |
Ascoli |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Pordenone |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Spal |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Cittadella |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Nov |
Lecce |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Frosinone |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Monza** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Monza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Monza** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Monza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance** as a guest**.

Monza,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Monza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Monza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Virtus Entella |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

11 Dec |
Venezia |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Reggiana |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Dec |
Vicenza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Reggina |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Pordenone |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Frosinone |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Cittadella |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Pescara** and the red line for guest team, **Monza. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Pescara |
26% |
37% |
26% |
11% |

Monza |
26% |
43% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Pescara** to score **0.96 ** goals and **Monza** to score **1.52 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the guest team **Monza ** to win by **0.56** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Pescara** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Monza** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.60 |

1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
1.91 |

2 |
3.57 |
4+ |
5.03 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.60 |

5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |

Gg |
1.83 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.03 |

NoG |
2.20 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.84 |
4.09 |
2.48 |

2-3 goals |
2.48 |
3.25 |
3.46 |

4+ goals |
2.93 |
3.16 |
2.93 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.59 |
3.22 |
3.30 |

Un 1.5 |
2.84 |
4.09 |
2.48 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
7.02 |
2.62 |

Un 2.5 |
3.34 |
2.44 |
3.44 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.93 |
3.16 |
2.93 |

Un 3.5 |
2.59 |
3.50 |
3.05 |

Goal-Goal |
3.02 |
2.44 |
3.87 |

No Goal |
2.32 |
6.68 |
2.39 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
6.11 |
2.73 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.38 |
6.68 |
2.45 |

####
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###
Vicenza vs Ascoli at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Vicenza** and **Ascoli** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Vicenza |
1.81 |
2.25 |
-10.8 |

Draw |
3.40 |
3.89 |
-3.7 |

Ascoli |
5.41 |
3.36 |
11.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.06 |
-1.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.87 |
1.95 |
-2.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Ascoli (11.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Vicenza** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Vicenza** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vicenza’s performance** at home**.

Vicenza,** at home**, had no wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Vicenza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Cittadella |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Pescara |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Cosenza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Dec |
Monza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Empoli |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Cremonese |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Pisa |
H |
4 |
4 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Spal |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Ascoli** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Ascoli scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ascoli** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Ascoli scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance** as a guest**.

Ascoli,** as a guest**, had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Ascoli scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Cosenza |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Cremonese |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Pisa |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Dec |
Pescara |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Venezia |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Virtus Entella |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Pordenone |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Salernitana |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Vicenza** and the red line for guest team, **Ascoli. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Vicenza |
21% |
37% |
24% |
17% |

Ascoli |
37% |
28% |
21% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Vicenza** to score **1.67 ** goals and **Ascoli** to score **0.79 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Vicenza ** to win by **0.88** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Vicenza** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Ascoli** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.62 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.20 |
4+ |
4.07 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.62 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |