2020 12 18 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Virtus Entella vs Pordenone at 18 December 2020
Frosinone vs Salernitana at 18 December 2020
Pescara vs Monza at 19 December 2020
Vicenza vs Ascoli at 19 December 2020
Venezia vs Spal at 19 December 2020
Reggina vs Cittadella at 19 December 2020
Cremonese vs Cosenza at 19 December 2020
Chievo vs Empoli at 19 December 2020
Brescia vs Reggiana at 19 December 2020
Lecce vs Pisa at 19 December 2020


Virtus Entella vs Pordenone at 18 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Entella and Pordenone for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 18 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Virtus Entella

3.37

2.80

6.0

Draw

3.10

3.29

-1.9

Pordenone

2.24

2.95

-10.7

Over 2.5

2.16

2.29

-2.6

Under 2.5

1.69

1.77

-2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Virtus Entella (6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Virtus Entella in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Virtus Entella in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance at home.
Virtus Entella, at home, had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Monza

A

0

5

L

O

N

12 Dec

Empoli

H

2

5

L

O

G

05 Dec

Cremonese

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Nov

Spal

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Nov

Ascoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Venezia

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Lecce

H

1

5

L

O

G

31 Oct

Brescia

A

2

2

D

O

G


Pordenone in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pordenone in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance as a guest.
Pordenone, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Brescia

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Pisa

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Dec

Empoli

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Pescara

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Monza

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Chievo

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Ascoli

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Reggina

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Virtus Entella and the red line for guest team, Pordenone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Virtus Entella

22%

49%

15%

14%

Pordenone

27%

40%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 0.99 goals and Pordenone to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the guest team Pordenone to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1.21 goals and Pordenone to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.67

0-1

3.56

1

4.52

2-3

1.97

2

3.55

4+

4.76

3

4.42

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.56

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.29

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.78

Gg

1.76

Ov 3.5

4.76

NoG

2.31

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.13

4.68

3.16

2-3 goals

3.63

2.59

2.95

4+ goals

2.47

4.38

2.73

Ov 1.5

3.19

2.94

2.88

Un 1.5

2.13

4.68

3.16

Ov 2.5

2.37

9.08

2.14

Un 2.5

3.25

2.20

4.20

Ov 3.5

2.47

4.38

2.73

Un 3.5

2.90

3.08

3.02

Goal-Goal

3.88

2.32

3.20

No Goal

2.05

7.20

2.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.54

7.73

2.10

NG+Un 2.5

2.12

7.20

2.74


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Frosinone vs Salernitana at 18 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Frosinone and Salernitana for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 18 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Frosinone

2.03

2.34

-6.5

Draw

3.17

3.64

-4.1

Salernitana

3.87

3.38

3.7

Over 2.5

2.12

2.21

-1.9

Under 2.5

1.73

1.82

-2.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Salernitana (3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Frosinone in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Frosinone in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance at home.
Frosinone, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Reggiana

A

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Lecce

A

2

2

D

O

G

05 Dec

Chievo

H

3

2

W

O

G

28 Nov

Brescia

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Nov

Cosenza

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Monza

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

Cremonese

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Pescara

A

2

0

W

U

N


Salernitana in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salernitana in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance as a guest.
Salernitana, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Lecce

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Brescia

A

1

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

Cosenza

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Nov

Cremonese

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Nov

Spal

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Oct

Ascoli

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Vicenza

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Frosinone and the red line for guest team, Salernitana.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Frosinone

25%

32%

30%

13%

Salernitana

32%

39%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.43 goals and Salernitana to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Frosinone to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.3 goals and Salernitana to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.58

1

5.00

2-3

1.95

2

3.72

4+

4.85

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.58

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.85

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.76

3.53

2.82

2-3 goals

2.03

4.07

3.83

4+ goals

2.78

2.94

3.32

Ov 1.5

2.20

3.67

3.67

Un 1.5

2.76

3.53

2.82

Ov 2.5

1.94

6.43

3.04

Un 2.5

2.80

2.67

3.73

Ov 3.5

2.78

2.94

3.32

Un 3.5

2.24

3.86

3.40

Goal-Goal

2.66

2.61

4.15

No Goal

2.06

6.16

2.83

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.01

5.50

3.13

NG+Un 2.5

2.15

6.16

2.87


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Pescara vs Monza at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Pescara and Monza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pescara

3.78

2.65

11.3

Draw

3.33

3.42

-0.8

Monza

1.97

3.02

-17.6

Over 2.5

1.96

2.26

-6.8

Under 2.5

1.85

1.79

1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pescara, Under 2.5 (11.3 %, 1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pescara in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pescara in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance at home.
Pescara, at home, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Pisa

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Vicenza

H

2

3

L

O

G

04 Dec

Ascoli

A

2

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Pordenone

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Nov

Spal

A

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Cittadella

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Lecce

A

1

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

Frosinone

H

0

2

L

U

N


Monza in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monza in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance as a guest.
Monza, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Virtus Entella

H

5

0

W

O

N

11 Dec

Venezia

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Reggiana

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Dec

Vicenza

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Reggina

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Pordenone

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Frosinone

H

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Cittadella

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pescara and the red line for guest team, Monza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pescara

26%

37%

26%

11%

Monza

26%

43%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pescara to score 0.96 goals and Monza to score 1.52 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the guest team Monza to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pescara to score 1.22 goals and Monza to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.60

1

4.76

2-3

1.91

2

3.57

4+

5.03

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.60

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.26

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

1.83

Ov 3.5

5.03

NoG

2.20

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.84

4.09

2.48

2-3 goals

2.48

3.25

3.46

4+ goals

2.93

3.16

2.93

Ov 1.5

2.59

3.22

3.30

Un 1.5

2.84

4.09

2.48

Ov 2.5

2.10

7.02

2.62

Un 2.5

3.34

2.44

3.44

Ov 3.5

2.93

3.16

2.93

Un 3.5

2.59

3.50

3.05

Goal-Goal

3.02

2.44

3.87

No Goal

2.32

6.68

2.39

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.13

6.11

2.73

NG+Un 2.5

2.38

6.68

2.45


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Vicenza vs Ascoli at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Vicenza and Ascoli for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Vicenza

1.81

2.25

-10.8

Draw

3.40

3.89

-3.7

Ascoli

5.41

3.36

11.3

Over 2.5

2.02

2.06

-1.0

Under 2.5

1.87

1.95

-2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ascoli (11.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Vicenza in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vicenza in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vicenza’s performance at home.
Vicenza, at home, had no wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Vicenza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Cittadella

A

0

3

L

O

N

12 Dec

Pescara

A

3

2

W

O

G

06 Dec

Cosenza

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Dec

Monza

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Empoli

A

2

2

D

O

G

07 Nov

Cremonese

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Pisa

H

4

4

D

O

G

24 Oct

Spal

A

2

3

L

O

G


Ascoli in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ascoli in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance as a guest.
Ascoli, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Cosenza

H

0

3

L

O

N

12 Dec

Cremonese

A

3

3

D

O

G

08 Dec

Pisa

A

1

2

L

O

G

04 Dec

Pescara

H

0

2

L

U

N

28 Nov

Venezia

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Virtus Entella

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Pordenone

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Salernitana

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Vicenza and the red line for guest team, Ascoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Vicenza

21%

37%

24%

17%

Ascoli

37%

28%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vicenza to score 1.67 goals and Ascoli to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Vicenza to win by 0.88 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vicenza to score 1.38 goals and Ascoli to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.62

1

5.10

2-3

2.10

2

4.20

4+

4.07

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.62

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.07

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals