2020 12 18 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

San Pablo Burgos vs Manresa at 19 December 2020
Gipuzkoa vs Gran Canaria at 19 December 2020
Andorra vs Estudiantes at 20 December 2020
Valencia vs Murcia at 20 December 2020
Obradoiro vs Zaragoza at 20 December 2020
Baskonia vs Tenerife at 20 December 2020
Fuenlabrada vs Bilbao at 20 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



San Pablo Burgos vs Manresa at 19 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between San Pablo Burgos and Manresa for Liga ACB, which will take place on 19 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

San Pablo Burgos

1.32

2.27

Manresa

3.4

1.78

San Pablo Burgos HC

-6.5

2.50

Manresa HC

+6.5

-2.50

Point Line

169.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 12

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

79

84

8

5

L 2

82

76

Dec 6

H

Real Madrid

L

60

74

8

4

L 1

65

69

Nov 21

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

78

63

8

3

W 4

76

64

Nov 15

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

91

71

7

3

W 3

88

71

Nov 12

H

UCAM Murcia

W

89

84

6

3

W 2

90

84

Nov 8

A

Valencia Basket

W

99

81

5

3

W 1

99

80

Nov 1

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

78

99

4

3

L 2

76

96

Oct 17

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

82

87

4

2

L 1

85

89

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 12

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

85

80

7

6

W 1

86

76

Nov 22

A

Real Madrid

L

78

100

6

6

L 2

85

93

Nov 12

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

80

88

6

5

L 1

83

80

Nov 8

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

103

102

6

4

W 2

94

108

Oct 31

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

94

78

5

4

W 1

87

79

Oct 28

A

Baskonia

L

68

87

4

4

L 1

71

86

Oct 24

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

93

81

4

3

W 2

93

89

Oct 17

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

102

100

3

3

W 1

100

98

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by San Pablo Burgos and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by San Pablo Burgos.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by San Pablo Burgos (in the first graph) and by Manresa in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, San Pablo Burgos will expected to score 85 points and the Manresa 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

San Pablo Burgos

Manresa

FG%

0.51

0.57

ASS

14.50

14.50

DRB

22.20

20.80

AST-TO

0.92

0.97

TRB

31.40

27.70

FTM

15.80

17.20

BL

2.20

3.40

FTA

19.60

22.20

PF-Fewer

19.50

20.40

ST

8.40

9.20

TO-Fewer

15.80

14.90

Ftper

0.80

0.78

ORBper

0.41

0.33

ORB

9.20

6.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Gipuzkoa vs Gran Canaria at 19 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Gipuzkoa and Gran Canaria for Liga ACB, which will take place on 19 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Gipuzkoa

2.7

3.90

Gran Canaria

1.47

1.35

Gipuzkoa HC

+4.5

7.00

Gran Canaria HC

-4.5

-7.00

Point Line

157.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gipuzkoa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 13

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

86

82

2

11

W 1

89

84

Dec 9

A

UCAM Murcia

L

73

90

1

11

L 9

74

90

Dec 6

A

Baskonia

L

71

83

1

10

L 8

75

82

Nov 22

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

68

99

1

9

L 7

69

94

Nov 15

A

Unicaja

L

69

104

1

8

L 6

71

99

Oct 31

A

Coosur Real Betis

L

62

74

1

7

L 5

62

81

Oct 28

A

Movistar Estudiantes

L

61

80

1

6

L 4

59

80

Oct 24

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

72

100

1

5

L 3

71

98

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gran Canaria are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 13

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

87

71

3

10

W 1

85

69

Dec 6

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

63

91

2

10

L 3

68

88

Nov 21

H

MoraBanc Andorra

L

62

79

2

9

L 2

64

80

Nov 15

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

80

99

2

8

L 1

83

90

Nov 7

A

UCAM Murcia

W

78

74

2

7

W 1

79

74

Nov 1

H

Baskonia

L

71

75

1

7

L 7

75

74

Oct 25

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

75

85

1

6

L 6

73

87

Oct 18

H

Unicaja

L

80

84

1

5

L 5

82

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gipuzkoa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gran Canaria.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gran Canaria and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gipuzkoa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gipuzkoa (in the first graph) and by Gran Canaria in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gipuzkoa will expected to score 78 points and the Gran Canaria 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Gipuzkoa

Gran Canaria

FG%

0.46

0.49

ASS

13.50

14.40

DRB

19.90

20.70

AST-TO

0.96

1.17

TRB

29.50

29.10

FTM

10.60

11.50

BL

2.40

2.70

FTA

15.20

15.40

PF-Fewer

20.50

19.40

ST

9.20

6.50

TO-Fewer

14.10

12.30

Ftper

0.70

0.74

ORBper

0.48

0.41

ORB

9.60

8.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Andorra vs Estudiantes at 20 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Andorra and Estudiantes for Liga ACB, which will take place on 20 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Andorra

1.5

1.59

Estudiantes

2.6

2.70

Andorra HC

-4.5

-4.00

Estudiantes HC

+4.5

4.00

Point Line

158.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 13

A

Acunsa GBC

L

82

86

6

6

L 2

77

97

Dec 11

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

83

98

6

5

L 1

76

104

Dec 6

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

72

55

6

4

W 3

72

60

Dec 3

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

85

76

5

4

W 2

79

77

Nov 21

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

79

62

4

4

W 1

75

67

Oct 25

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

71

82

3

4

L 1

77

79

Oct 17

H

San Pablo Burgos

W

87

82

3

3

W 2

88

77

Oct 10

A

Manresa

W

69

64

2

3

W 1

67

62

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Estudiantes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 13

H

Valencia Basket

L

81

86

5

9

L 1

81

84

Dec 6

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

78

77

5

8

W 1

72

78

Nov 22

H

Unicaja

L

90

92

4

8

L 4

92

88

Nov 15

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

71

91

4

7

L 3

72

85

Nov 8

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

78

92

4

6

L 2

85

88

Nov 1

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

70

97

4

5

L 1

71

92

Oct 28

H

Acunsa GBC

W

80

61

4

4

W 1

75

69

Oct 25

A

Real Madrid

L

77

93

3

4

L 1

84

86

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Estudiantes.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Estudiantes and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Andorra (in the first graph) and by Estudiantes in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Andorra will expected to score 81 points and the Estudiantes 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Andorra

Estudiantes

FG%

0.53

0.54

ASS

15.70

13.90

DRB

24.20

20.60

AST-TO

1.03

1.05

TRB

33.70

29.60

FTM

13.20

12.40

BL

3.30

3.60

FTA

17.30

16.40

PF-Fewer

21.30

24.10

ST

7.30

6.80

TO-Fewer

15.30

13.20

Ftper

0.76

0.75

ORBper

0.39

0.44

ORB

9.50

9.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Valencia vs Murcia at 20 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Murcia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 20 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Valencia

1.24

1.66

Murcia

4.15

2.51

Valencia HC

-8.5

-3.50

Murcia HC

+8.5

3.50

Point Line

162.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 13

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

86

81

7

6

W 3

83

81

Dec 5

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

68

61

6

6

W 2

67

60

Dec 1

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

W

100

90

5

6

W 1

109

87

Nov 22

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

89

95

4

6

L 3

92

86

Nov 8

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

81

99

4

5

L 2

82

93

Nov 1

H

Real Madrid

L

78

86

4

4

L 1

85

80

Oct 27

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

78

77

4

3

W 2

76

79

Oct 24

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

93

84

3

3

W 1

85

89

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Murcia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 9

H

Acunsa GBC

W

90

73

7

6

W 1

85

82

Dec 6

A

Unicaja

L

81

102

6

6

L 1

83

97

Nov 21

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

84

81

6

5

W 2

82

79

Nov 15

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

73

63

5

5

W 1

68

64

Nov 12

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

84

89

4

5

L 2

85

84

Nov 7

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

74

78

4

4

L 1

70

84

Oct 27

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

W

77

73

4

3

W 1

84

70

Oct 18

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

86

98

3

3

L 1

78

104

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Murcia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Murcia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Valencia (in the first graph) and by Murcia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Valencia will expected to score 82 points and the Murcia 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Valencia

Murcia

FG%

0.56

0.51

ASS

18.10

14.20

DRB

22.50

22.20

AST-TO

1.30

1.00

TRB

29.80

31.70

FTM

15.70

18.30

BL

1.40

2.20

FTA

18.70

23.50

PF-Fewer

17.50

20.50

ST

6.80

6.10

TO-Fewer

13.90

14.20

Ftper

0.84

0.78

ORBper

0.32

0.43

ORB

7.20

9.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Obradoiro vs Zaragoza at 20 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Obradoiro and Zaragoza for Liga ACB, which will take place on 20 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Obradoiro

1.78

2.94

Zaragoza

2.05

1.52

Obradoiro HC

-1.5

5.00

Zaragoza HC

+1.5

-5.00

Point Line

167.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Obradoiro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 17

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

83

87

5

9

L 7

84

83

Dec 13

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

75

78

5

8

L 6

82

75

Dec 5

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

62

107

5

7

L 5

64

97

Nov 21

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

63

78

5

6

L 4

64

73

Nov 15

A

Baskonia