# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** OFI Crete vs Aris at 19 December 2020**** Panetolikos vs Apollon at 19 December 2020**** PAOK vs Panathinaikos at 20 December 2020**** Olympiakos vs Larisa at 20 December 2020**** Atromitos vs Lamia at 20 December 2020**** AEK vs Volos NFC at 21 December 2020**** Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis at 21 December 2020**

###
OFI Crete vs Aris at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **OFI Crete** and **Aris** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

OFI Crete |
2.89 |
3.48 |
-5.9 |

Draw |
3.12 |
3.28 |
-1.6 |

Aris |
2.49 |
2.45 |
0.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.92 |
-8.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.52 |
2.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Aris, Under 2.5 (0.7 %, 2.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**OFI Crete** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **OFI Crete** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance** at home**.

OFI Crete,** at home**, had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Larisa |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Apollon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Giannina |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Nov |
Volos NFC |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Olympiakos |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
AEK |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Oct |
Panathinaikos |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Aris** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Aris** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aris** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Aris** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aris’s performance** as a guest**.

Aris,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 13 points, 86.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Aris** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Aris was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
PAOK |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Atromitos |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Larisa |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

28 Nov |
Olympiakos |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Apollon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Oct |
Panathinaikos |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **OFI Crete** and the red line for guest team, **Aris. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

OFI Crete |
35% |
47% |
13% |
5% |

Aris |
34% |
33% |
19% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **OFI Crete** to score **1.03 ** goals and **Aris** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.17** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **OFI Crete** to score **0.88 ** goals and **Aris** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.02** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.26** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.55 |
0-1 |
2.56 |

1 |
3.65 |
2-3 |
2.16 |

2 |
3.77 |
4+ |
6.94 |

3 |
5.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.64 |

4 |
9.17 |
Un 1.5 |
2.56 |

5 |
35.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.92 |

6+ |
142.86 |
Un 2.5 |
1.52 |

Gg |
2.31 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.94 |

NoG |
1.76 |
Un 3.5 |
1.17 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.47 |
3.34 |
3.37 |

2-3 goals |
4.50 |
2.97 |
2.26 |

4+ goals |
5.76 |
4.50 |
1.66 |

Ov 1.5 |
4.75 |
3.23 |
2.08 |

Un 1.5 |
2.47 |
3.34 |
3.37 |

Ov 2.5 |
4.04 |
10.72 |
1.52 |

Un 2.5 |
3.26 |
2.40 |
3.60 |

Ov 3.5 |
5.76 |
4.50 |
1.66 |

Un 3.5 |
3.28 |
3.13 |
2.66 |

Goal-Goal |
6.35 |
2.30 |
2.45 |

No Goal |
2.60 |
4.85 |
2.44 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
4.06 |
8.63 |
1.57 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.49 |
4.85 |
2.75 |

####
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###
Panetolikos vs Apollon at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Panetolikos** and **Apollon** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **19 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Panetolikos |
2.37 |
2.33 |
0.7 |

Draw |
2.88 |
3.50 |
-6.2 |

Apollon |
3.20 |
3.51 |
-2.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.48 |
2.76 |
-4.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.51 |
1.57 |
-2.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Panetolikos (0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Panetolikos** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Panetolikos** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance** at home**.

Panetolikos,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
Volos NFC |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Dec |
Larisa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Panathinaikos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Aris |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Giannina |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
PAOK |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Oct |
Atromitos |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Oct |
Lamia |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Apollon** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Apollon** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance** as a guest**.

Apollon,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
AEK |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
OFI Crete |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Nov |
Volos NFC |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Atromitos |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
PAOK |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Panetolikos** and the red line for guest team, **Apollon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Panetolikos |
31% |
32% |
28% |
10% |

Apollon |
43% |
33% |
13% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Panetolikos** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Apollon** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.07** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Panetolikos** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Apollon** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.07** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.46 |
0-1 |
2.67 |

1 |
4.17 |
2-3 |
2.12 |

2 |
3.79 |
4+ |
6.49 |

3 |
4.81 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.60 |

4 |
9.80 |
Un 1.5 |
2.67 |

5 |
23.81 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.76 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.57 |

Gg |
2.54 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.49 |

NoG |
1.65 |
Un 3.5 |
1.18 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.77 |
2.79 |
3.56 |

2-3 goals |
1.89 |
4.45 |
4.07 |

4+ goals |
3.42 |
3.35 |
2.44 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.12 |
4.12 |
3.50 |

Un 1.5 |
2.77 |
2.79 |
3.56 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
7.87 |
2.62 |

Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
2.66 |
4.37 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.42 |
3.35 |
2.44 |

Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
3.53 |
3.83 |

Goal-Goal |
2.88 |
2.59 |
3.75 |

No Goal |
2.07 |
4.52 |
3.39 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
6.26 |
2.74 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.11 |
4.52 |
3.64 |

####
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###
PAOK vs Panathinaikos at 20 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **PAOK** and **Panathinaikos** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **20 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

PAOK |
1.63 |
2.19 |
-15.7 |

Draw |
3.72 |
3.61 |
0.8 |

Panathinaikos |
5.38 |
3.76 |
8.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.53 |
-4.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.66 |
-0.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Panathinaikos (0.8 %, 8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**PAOK** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, PAOK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **PAOK** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, PAOK scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at PAOK’s performance** at home**.

PAOK,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 13 points, 86.7% of the total available.

In these matches, PAOK** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of PAOK was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Dec |
Aris |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Lamia |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Giannina |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Apollon |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Panetolikos |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
AEK |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Oct |
OFI Crete |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Panathinaikos** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Panathinaikos** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Panathinaikos** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance** as a guest**.

Panathinaikos,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Panathinaikos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Giannina |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
AEK |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Panetolikos |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Atromitos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Apollon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Lamia |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Volos NFC |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **PAOK** and the red line for guest team, **Panathinaikos. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

PAOK |
35% |
25% |
19% |
21% |

Panathinaikos |
42% |
33% |
21% |
4% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **PAOK** to score **1.56 ** goals and **Panathinaikos** to score **0.67 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.22** goals in the game and the home team **PAOK ** to win by **0.89** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **PAOK** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Panathinaikos** to score **0.85 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.12** goals in the game and the home team **PAOK ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
6.80 |
0-1 |
2.72 |

1 |
4.52 |
2-3 |
2.20 |

2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
5.59 |

3 |
4.59 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.58 |

4 |
8.33 |
Un 1.5 |
2.72 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.52 |

6+ |
125.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.66 |

Gg |
2.65 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.59 |

NoG |
1.61 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.50 |
2.50 |
3.17 |

2-3 goals |
1.92 |
5.47 |
3.39 |

4+ goals |
1.56 |
3.73 |
11.19 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.80 |
4.83 |
4.22 |

Un 1.5 |
3.50 |
2.50 |
3.17 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.47 |
8.27 |
5.03 |

Un 2.5 |
3.23 |
2.63 |
3.23 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.56 |
3.73 |
11.19 |

Un 3.5 |
2.40 |
3.57 |
3.29 |

Goal-Goal |
2.10 |
2.89 |
5.64 |

No Goal |
2.25 |
4.24 |
3.13 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.64 |
6.15 |
4.40 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
4.24 |
2.79 |

####
Go to Top

###
Olympiakos vs Larisa at 20 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Olympiakos** and **Larisa** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **20 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Olympiakos |
1.16 |
1.91 |
-33.9 |

Draw |
7.20 |
3.85 |
12.1 |

Larisa |
15.08 |
4.63 |
15.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.55 |
2.26 |
-20.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.39 |
1.80 |
13.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Larisa, Under 2.5 (12.1 %, 15 %, 13.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Olympiakos** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Olympiakos** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Olympiakos** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Olympiakos** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Olympiakos’s performance** at home**.

Olympiakos,** at home**, had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Olympiakos** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Olympiakos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
AEK |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Lamia |
A |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Volos NFC |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Aris |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Panathinaikos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
OFI Crete |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Apollon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Atromitos |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Larisa** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Larisa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Larisa** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Larisa scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance** as a guest**.

Larisa,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Larisa scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
OFI Crete |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Dec |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Aris |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

28 Nov |
Atromitos |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
AEK |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Nov |
Giannina |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Volos NFC |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Olympiakos** and the red line for guest team, **Larisa. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Olympiakos |
32% |
23% |
12% |
32% |

Larisa |
46% |
36% |
15% |
3% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Olympiakos** to score **2.64 ** goals and **Larisa** to score **0.38 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.02** goals in the game and the home team **Olympiakos ** to win by **2.26** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Olympiakos** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Larisa** to score **0.75 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.2** goals in the game and the home team **Olympiakos ** to win by **0.7** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
6.80 |
0-1 |
2.71 |

1 |
4.50 |
2-3 |
2.34 |

2 |
5.32 |
4+ |
4.88 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.58 |

4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
2.71 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |

6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
2.72 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.88 |

NoG |
1.58 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.39 |
2.51 |
3.27 |

2-3 goals |
1.70 |