2020 12 18 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

OFI Crete vs Aris at 19 December 2020
Panetolikos vs Apollon at 19 December 2020
PAOK vs Panathinaikos at 20 December 2020
Olympiakos vs Larisa at 20 December 2020
Atromitos vs Lamia at 20 December 2020
AEK vs Volos NFC at 21 December 2020
Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis at 21 December 2020


OFI Crete vs Aris at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between OFI Crete and Aris for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

OFI Crete

2.89

3.48

-5.9

Draw

3.12

3.28

-1.6

Aris

2.49

2.45

0.7

Over 2.5

2.34

2.92

-8.5

Under 2.5

1.59

1.52

2.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aris, Under 2.5 (0.7 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

OFI Crete in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, OFI Crete in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance at home.
OFI Crete, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Larisa

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Apollon

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Giannina

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Nov

Volos NFC

A

4

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Olympiakos

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

AEK

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Oct

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

1

L

U

N

18 Oct

Panathinaikos

H

2

2

D

O

G


Aris in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aris in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aris’s performance as a guest.
Aris, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 13 points, 86.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aris was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

PAOK

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Atromitos

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Dec

Larisa

A

3

0

W

O

N

28 Nov

Olympiakos

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Panetolikos

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Asteras Tripolis

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Apollon

H

1

0

W

U

N

04 Oct

Panathinaikos

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, OFI Crete and the red line for guest team, Aris.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

OFI Crete

35%

47%

13%

5%

Aris

34%

33%

19%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) OFI Crete to score 1.03 goals and Aris to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) OFI Crete to score 0.88 goals and Aris to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.55

0-1

2.56

1

3.65

2-3

2.16

2

3.77

4+

6.94

3

5.03

Ov 1.5

1.64

4

9.17

Un 1.5

2.56

5

35.71

Ov 2.5

2.92

6+

142.86

Un 2.5

1.52

Gg

2.31

Ov 3.5

6.94

NoG

1.76

Un 3.5

1.17

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.47

3.34

3.37

2-3 goals

4.50

2.97

2.26

4+ goals

5.76

4.50

1.66

Ov 1.5

4.75

3.23

2.08

Un 1.5

2.47

3.34

3.37

Ov 2.5

4.04

10.72

1.52

Un 2.5

3.26

2.40

3.60

Ov 3.5

5.76

4.50

1.66

Un 3.5

3.28

3.13

2.66

Goal-Goal

6.35

2.30

2.45

No Goal

2.60

4.85

2.44

G-G+Ov 2.5

4.06

8.63

1.57

NG+Un 2.5

2.49

4.85

2.75


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Panetolikos vs Apollon at 19 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Panetolikos and Apollon for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 19 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Panetolikos

2.37

2.33

0.7

Draw

2.88

3.50

-6.2

Apollon

3.20

3.51

-2.8

Over 2.5

2.48

2.76

-4.1

Under 2.5

1.51

1.57

-2.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Panetolikos (0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Panetolikos in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panetolikos in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance at home.
Panetolikos, at home, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Volos NFC

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Dec

Larisa

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Panathinaikos

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Aris

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Giannina

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Nov

PAOK

H

1

3

L

O

G

26 Oct

Atromitos

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Oct

Lamia

A

0

0

D

U

N


Apollon in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance as a guest.
Apollon, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

AEK

H

3

4

L

O

G

06 Dec

OFI Crete

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Nov

Volos NFC

H

3

3

D

O

G

25 Nov

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Atromitos

A

2

2

D

O

G

08 Nov

PAOK

H

1

3

L

O

G

03 Nov

Panathinaikos

A

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Olympiakos

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Panetolikos and the red line for guest team, Apollon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Panetolikos

31%

32%

28%

10%

Apollon

43%

33%

13%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Panetolikos to score 1.14 goals and Apollon to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Panetolikos to score 1.15 goals and Apollon to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.46

0-1

2.67

1

4.17

2-3

2.12

2

3.79

4+

6.49

3

4.81

Ov 1.5

1.60

4

9.80

Un 1.5

2.67

5

23.81

Ov 2.5

2.76

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.57

Gg

2.54

Ov 3.5

6.49

NoG

1.65

Un 3.5

1.18

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.77

2.79

3.56

2-3 goals

1.89

4.45

4.07

4+ goals

3.42

3.35

2.44

Ov 1.5

2.12

4.12

3.50

Un 1.5

2.77

2.79

3.56

Ov 2.5

2.03

7.87

2.62

Un 2.5

2.53

2.66

4.37

Ov 3.5

3.42

3.35

2.44

Un 3.5

2.20

3.53

3.83

Goal-Goal

2.88

2.59

3.75

No Goal

2.07

4.52

3.39

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.10

6.26

2.74

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

4.52

3.64


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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PAOK vs Panathinaikos at 20 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between PAOK and Panathinaikos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 20 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

PAOK

1.63

2.19

-15.7

Draw

3.72

3.61

0.8

Panathinaikos

5.38

3.76

8.0

Over 2.5

2.29

2.53

-4.1

Under 2.5

1.64

1.66

-0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Panathinaikos (0.8 %, 8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

PAOK in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PAOK in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at PAOK’s performance at home.
PAOK, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 13 points, 86.7% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PAOK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Aris

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Asteras Tripolis

H

2

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

Lamia

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Giannina

H

2

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Apollon

A

3

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Panetolikos

A

3

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

AEK

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

OFI Crete

H

3

0

W

O

N


Panathinaikos in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panathinaikos in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance as a guest.
Panathinaikos, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panathinaikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Giannina

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

AEK

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Panetolikos

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Olympiakos

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Atromitos

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Apollon

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Lamia

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Volos NFC

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, PAOK and the red line for guest team, Panathinaikos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

PAOK

35%

25%

19%

21%

Panathinaikos

42%

33%

21%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) PAOK to score 1.56 goals and Panathinaikos to score 0.67 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and the home team PAOK to win by 0.89 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) PAOK to score 1.27 goals and Panathinaikos to score 0.85 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and the home team PAOK to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.80

0-1

2.72

1

4.52

2-3

2.20

2

4.24

4+

5.59

3

4.59

Ov 1.5

1.58

4

8.33

Un 1.5

2.72

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.52

6+

125.00

Un 2.5

1.66

Gg

2.65

Ov 3.5

5.59

NoG

1.61

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.50

2.50

3.17

2-3 goals

1.92

5.47

3.39

4+ goals

1.56

3.73

11.19

Ov 1.5

1.80

4.83

4.22

Un 1.5

3.50

2.50

3.17

Ov 2.5

1.47

8.27

5.03

Un 2.5

3.23

2.63

3.23

Ov 3.5

1.56

3.73

11.19

Un 3.5

2.40

3.57

3.29

Goal-Goal

2.10

2.89

5.64

No Goal

2.25

4.24

3.13

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.64

6.15

4.40

NG+Un 2.5

2.79

4.24

2.79


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Olympiakos vs Larisa at 20 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Olympiakos and Larisa for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 20 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Olympiakos

1.16

1.91

-33.9

Draw

7.20

3.85

12.1

Larisa

15.08

4.63

15.0

Over 2.5

1.55

2.26

-20.3

Under 2.5

2.39

1.80

13.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Larisa, Under 2.5 (12.1 %, 15 %, 13.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Olympiakos in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Olympiakos in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Olympiakos’s performance at home.
Olympiakos, at home, had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Olympiakos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

AEK

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Lamia

A

6

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Volos NFC

H

4

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Aris

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Panathinaikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

OFI Crete

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Apollon

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Atromitos

H

4

0

W

O

N


Larisa in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance as a guest.
Larisa, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

OFI Crete

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Dec

Panetolikos

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Aris

H

0

3

L

O

N

28 Nov

Atromitos

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Nov

AEK

A

1

4

L

O

G

04 Nov

Giannina

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Volos NFC

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Asteras Tripolis

H

1

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Olympiakos and the red line for guest team, Larisa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Olympiakos

32%

23%

12%

32%

Larisa

46%

36%

15%

3%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Olympiakos to score 2.64 goals and Larisa to score 0.38 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.02 goals in the game and the home team Olympiakos to win by 2.26 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Olympiakos to score 1.45 goals and Larisa to score 0.75 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Olympiakos to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.80

0-1

2.71

1

4.50

2-3

2.34

2

5.32

4+

4.88

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.58

4

7.04

Un 1.5

2.71

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.25

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.72

Ov 3.5

4.88

NoG

1.58

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.39

2.51

3.27

2-3 goals

1.70