2020 12 18 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Barcelona vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 18 December 2020
Crvena Zvezda vs Valencia at 18 December 2020
CSKA Moscow vs Zenit at 18 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Barcelona vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 18 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Maccabi Tel Aviv for EuroLeague, which will take place on 18 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Barcelona

1.35

1.77

Maccabi Tel Aviv

3.4

2.30

Barcelona HC

-6.5

-2.50

Maccabi Tel Aviv HC

+6.5

2.50

Point Line

153.5

153.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

H

BC Khimki

W

87

74

11

3

W 2

77

74

Dec 11

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

87

71

10

3

W 1

85

68

Dec 8

H

Olympiacos

L

88

96

9

3

L 1

88

97

Dec 4

A

Zalgiris

W

73

62

9

2

W 1

73

62

Nov 27

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

68

80

8

2

L 1

69

84

Nov 20

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

76

65

8

1

W 7

77

68

Nov 12

H

Fenerbahce

W

97

55

7

1

W 6

97

59

Nov 5

A

Alba Berlin

W

103

67

6

1

W 5

99

67

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Tel Aviv are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

81

84

5

9

L 1

82

89

Dec 10

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

67

63

5

8

W 2

70

63

Dec 3

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

81

76

4

8

W 1

82

79

Nov 26

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

85

86

3

8

L 3

83

82

Nov 20

A

Valencia Basket

L

80

82

3

7

L 2

77

78

Nov 18

A

Real Madrid

L

63

79

3

6

L 1

63

75

Nov 12

H

Zalgiris

W

85

57

3

5

W 1

85

57

Nov 5

A

Anadolu Efes

L

89

91

2

5

L 2

90

93

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Barcelona (in the first graph) and by Maccabi Tel Aviv in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Barcelona will expected to score 80 points and the Maccabi Tel Aviv 75 points. The total points line estimated to be at 155.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Barcelona

Maccabi Tel Aviv

FG%

0.49

0.53

ASS

16.60

15.70

DRB

17.70

23.60

AST-TO

1.26

1.15

TRB

26.10

32.40

FTM

12.10

11.70

BL

2.40

2.40

FTA

15.40

15.40

PF-Fewer

20.60

19.10

ST

6.80

7.30

TO-Fewer

13.20

13.60

Ftper

0.78

0.76

ORBper

0.47

0.38

ORB

8.40

8.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Crvena Zvezda vs Valencia at 18 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Crvena Zvezda and Valencia for EuroLeague, which will take place on 18 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Crvena Zvezda

1.93

1.76

Valencia

1.93

2.31

Crvena Zvezda HC

-1.5

-2.50

Valencia HC

+1.5

2.50

Point Line

155.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Crvena Zvezda are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 15

H

Alba Berlin

L

84

90

4

10

L 5

81

90

Dec 10

H

Olympiacos

L

79

81

4

9

L 4

79

82

Dec 3

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

76

81

4

8

L 3

76

81

Nov 26

H

Anadolu Efes

L

64

75

4

7

L 2

64

76

Nov 20

A

FC Barcelona

L

65

76

4

6

L 1

71

73

Nov 18

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

87

79

4

5

W 1

85

76

Nov 13

H

Real Madrid

L

67

73

3

5

L 1

67

70

Nov 11

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

89

68

3

4

W 1

90

72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

A

Olympiacos

W

96

85

9

5

W 2

96

86

Dec 10

H

Anadolu Efes

W

76

74

8

5

W 1

77

75

Dec 8

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

72

85

7

5

L 2

78

89

Dec 3

H

Alba Berlin

L

92

100

7

4

L 1

88

100

Nov 27

A

Fenerbahce

W

90

86

7

3

W 3

90

92

Nov 20

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

82

80

6

3

W 2

83

80

Nov 17

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

95

83

5

3

W 1

88

82

Nov 13

A

Bayern Munich

L

79

90

4

3

L 1

81

90

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Crvena Zvezda and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Crvena Zvezda.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Crvena Zvezda (in the first graph) and by Valencia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Crvena Zvezda will expected to score 78 points and the Valencia 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Crvena Zvezda

Valencia

FG%

0.51

0.58

ASS

14.60

20.50

DRB

19.90

20.20

AST-TO

1.23

1.72

TRB

28.40

27.90

FTM

15.10

12.90

BL

2.10

1.60

FTA

17.90

15.50

PF-Fewer

22.60

19.30

ST

6.60

6.20

TO-Fewer

11.90

11.90

Ftper

0.84

0.83

ORBper

0.43

0.38

ORB

8.60

7.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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CSKA Moscow vs Zenit at 18 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between CSKA Moscow and Zenit for EuroLeague, which will take place on 18 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

CSKA Moscow

1.3

1.27

Zenit

3.7

4.67

CSKA Moscow HC

-7.5

-8.00

Zenit HC

+7.5

8.00

Point Line

152.5

153.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 15

H

Anadolu Efes

W

100

65

11

3

W 9

101

66

Dec 11

A

BC Khimki

W

96

87

10

3

W 8

85

87

Dec 3

H

Olympiacos

W

80

61

9

3

W 7

80

62

Nov 26

H

Real Madrid

W

74

73

8

3

W 6

74

70

Nov 19

A

Bayern Munich

W

89

81

7

3

W 5

92

81

Nov 17

A

Zalgiris

W

87

78

6

3

W 4

87

78

Nov 12

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

89

86

5

3

W 3

94

86

Nov 6

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

89

83

4

3

W 2

82

82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

H

Bayern Munich

W

79

75

8

4

W 1

81

75

Dec 10

A

Real Madrid

L

72

79

7

4

L 1

72

75

Dec 8

A

Valencia Basket

W

85

72

7

3

W 1

82

68

Dec 3

H

Fenerbahce

L

65

73

6

3

L 1

65

78

Nov 26

A

Zalgiris

W

83

75

6

2

W 3

83

75

Nov 23

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

77

70

5

2

W 2

81

70

Nov 20

A

Alba Berlin

W

73

66

4

2

W 1

70

66

Nov 17

H

BC Khimki

L

83

88

3

2

L 1

73

88

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by CSKA Moscow and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by CSKA Moscow.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by CSKA Moscow (in the first graph) and by Zenit in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, CSKA Moscow will expected to score 79 points and the Zenit 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

CSKA Moscow

Zenit

FG%

0.51

0.53

ASS

16.80

15.30

DRB

20.60

18.90

AST-TO

1.31

1.35

TRB

29.90

26.30

FTM

13.80

12.40

BL

2.80

2.60

FTA

16.70

16.00

PF-Fewer

23.10

20.80

ST

6.50

6.30

TO-Fewer

12.80

11.30

Ftper

0.82

0.78

ORBper

0.45

0.39

ORB

9.20

7.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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