2020 12 19 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Peristeri vs Larissa BC at 19 December 2020
Iraklis vs GS Lavrio at 19 December 2020
Kolossos Rhodes vs PAOK at 19 December 2020
Ionikos Nikaias vs Promitheas at 19 December 2020
AEK Athens vs Aris at 20 December 2020
Mesologgi BC vs Panathinaikos at 20 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Peristeri vs Larissa BC at 19 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Peristeri and Larissa BC for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 19 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Peristeri

1.18

1.69

Larissa BC

4.85

2.45

Peristeri HC

-10.5

-3.50

Larissa BC HC

+10.5

3.50

Point Line

149.5

150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 13

A

Panathinaikos

L

57

76

4

3

L 2

68

70

Dec 5

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

70

78

4

2

L 1

69

76

Nov 22

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

75

71

4

1

W 2

80

74

Nov 15

H

Messolonghi

W

84

72

3

1

W 1

84

76

Nov 7

H

AEK Athens

L

62

66

2

1

L 1

67

62

Oct 31

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

80

75

2

0

W 1

76

77

Oct 24

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

84

81

1

0

W 0

87

84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Larissa BC are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

H

Aris

L

84

88

1

5

L 2

79

86

Dec 12

H

Ionikos Nikaias

L

76

97

1

4

L 1

73

100

Dec 9

A

P.A.O.K.

W

93

91

1

3

W 1

88

90

Dec 5

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

64

90

0

3

L 2

66

93

Oct 31

A

AEK Athens

L

68

87

0

2

L 1

73

82

Oct 25

A

Panathinaikos

L

60

69

0

1

L 0

72

64

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Peristeri and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Larissa BC.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Larissa BC and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Peristeri.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Peristeri (in the first graph) and by Larissa BC in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Peristeri will expected to score 80 points and the Larissa BC 74 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Peristeri

Larissa BC

FG%

0.48

0.50

ASS

14.70

13.00

DRB

26.00

21.20

AST-TO

1.11

0.78

TRB

34.10

31.70

FTM

17.60

15.20

BL

1.90

1.30

FTA

23.40

20.20

PF-Fewer

21.70

21.30

ST

5.00

7.30

TO-Fewer

13.30

16.70

Ftper

0.75

0.75

ORBper

0.31

0.50

ORB

8.10

10.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Iraklis vs GS Lavrio at 19 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Iraklis and GS Lavrio for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 19 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Iraklis

1.28

3.32

GS Lavrio

3.7

1.43

Iraklis HC

-7.5

6.00

GS Lavrio HC

+7.5

-6.00

Point Line

151.5

146.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Iraklis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 12

H

AEK Athens

L

72

79

4

3

L 1

77

74

Dec 5

A

Messolonghi

W

71

68

4

2

W 1

71

72

Nov 22

H

Peristeri

L

71

75

3

2

L 1

72

78

Nov 18

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

66

65

3

1

W 2

68

67

Nov 14

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

77

67

2

1

W 1

74

69

Nov 10

A

Aris

L

75

81

1

1

L 1

70

79

Oct 24

H

P.A.O.K.

W

75

57

1

0

W 0

71

56

The latest results and the adjusted scores of GS Lavrio are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 12

H

Messolonghi

W

87

70

3

3

W 3

87

74

Dec 9

H

Aris

W

92

71

2

3

W 2

86

69

Dec 5

A

Peristeri

W

78

70

1

3

W 1

80

73

Nov 22

H

Ionikos Nikaias

L

81

91

0

3

L 2

77

94

Nov 18

A

P.A.O.K.

L

65

83

0

2

L 1

61

82

Nov 14

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

62

77

0

1

L 0

64

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Iraklis and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by GS Lavrio.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by GS Lavrio and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Iraklis.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Iraklis (in the first graph) and by GS Lavrio in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Iraklis will expected to score 75 points and the GS Lavrio 74 points. The total points line estimated to be at 149.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Iraklis

GS Lavrio

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

14.70

14.00

DRB

26.70

19.00

AST-TO

1.05

1.06

TRB

34.60

27.50

FTM

13.00

13.80

BL

2.10

3.30

FTA

18.00

19.80

PF-Fewer

22.60

22.30

ST

5.70

7.00

TO-Fewer

14.00

13.20

Ftper

0.72

0.70

ORBper

0.30

0.45

ORB

7.90

8.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Kolossos Rhodes vs PAOK at 19 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Kolossos Rhodes and PAOK for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 19 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Kolossos Rhodes

1.78

2.17

PAOK

2.05

1.86

Kolossos Rhodes HC

-1.5

2.00

PAOK HC

+1.5

-2.00

Point Line

150.5

149.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Kolossos Rhodes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 13

A

Promitheas Patras

L

67

69

2

5

L 1

63

67

Dec 5

H

Larisa

W

90

64

2

4

W 1

76

66

Nov 22

A

Panathinaikos

L

67

90

1

4

L 2

80

83

Nov 18

A

Iraklis B.C.

L

65

66

1

3

L 1

70

69

Nov 14

H

Lavrio B.C.

W

77

62

1

2

W 1

76

61

Oct 31

H

Messolonghi

L

66

77

0

2

L 1

66

81

Oct 24

A

Peristeri

L

81

84

0

1

L 0

83

87

The latest results and the adjusted scores of PAOK are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 13

H

Aris

W

75

64

2

5

W 1

70

62

Dec 9

H

Larisa

L

91

93

1

5

L 3

77

95

Dec 5

A

AEK Athens

L

84

85

1

4

L 2

90

80

Nov 21

A

Promitheas Patras

L

80

83

1

3

L 1

75

80

Nov 18

H

Lavrio B.C.

W

83

65

1

2

W 1

82

64

Nov 8

A

Panathinaikos

L

67

96

0

2

L 1

80

88

Oct 24

A

Iraklis B.C.

L

57

75

0

1

L 0

61

79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Kolossos Rhodes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by PAOK.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by PAOK and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Kolossos Rhodes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Kolossos Rhodes (in the first graph) and by PAOK in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Kolossos Rhodes will expected to score 76 points and the PAOK 75 points. The total points line estimated to be at 151.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Kolossos Rhodes

PAOK

FG%

0.53

0.52

ASS

15.90

15.10

DRB

24.70

20.90

AST-TO

1.10

1.13

TRB

30.90

29.10

FTM

12.90

13.60

BL

1.40

2.30

FTA

17.70

18.70

PF-Fewer

23.10

23.60

ST

5.90

10.00

TO-Fewer

14.40

13.40

Ftper

0.73

0.72

ORBper

0.25

0.40

ORB

6.10

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Ionikos Nikaias vs Promitheas at 19 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Ionikos Nikaias and Promitheas for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 19 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Ionikos Nikaias

1.9

4.05

Promitheas

1.9

1.33

Ionikos Nikaias HC

-1.5

7.00

Promitheas HC

+1.5

-7.00

Point Line

156.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ionikos Nikaias are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 12

A

Larisa

W

97

76

2

5

W 1

82

78

Dec 6

H

Panathinaikos

L

53

79

1

5

L 1

63

73

Nov 22

A

Lavrio B.C.

W

91

81

1

4

W 1

89

80

Nov 14

H

Iraklis B.C.

L

67

77

0

4

L 3

72

81

Nov 7

A

Messolonghi

L

66

79

0

3

L 2

66

83

Oct 31

H

Peristeri

L

75

80

0

2

L 1

77

83

Oct 24

H

AEK Athens

L

68

81

0

1

L 0

73

76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 13

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

69

67

2

1

W 1

71

69

Dec 5

A

Aris

L

83

94

1

1

L 1

78

92

Nov 21

H

P.A.O.K.

W

83

80

1

0

W 0

78

79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ionikos Nikaias and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ionikos Nikaias.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Ionikos Nikaias (in the first graph) and by Promitheas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Ionikos Nikaias will expected to score 79 points and the Promitheas 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 155.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Ionikos Nikaias

Promitheas

FG%

0.49

0.50

ASS

12.70

15.70

DRB

22.60

23.70

AST-TO

1.00

1.07

TRB

31.90

32.00

FTM

11.30

20.70

BL

1.60

3.70

FTA

15.10

30.30

PF-Fewer

21.60

20.70

ST

7.10

7.70

TO-Fewer

12.70

14.70

Ftper

0.74

0.68

ORBper

0.41

0.35

ORB

9.30

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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AEK Athens vs Aris at 20 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between AEK Athens and Aris for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 20 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

AEK Athens

1.07

1.76

Aris

8.5

2.32

AEK Athens HC

-14.5

-2.50

Aris HC

+14.5

2.50

Point Line

153.5

150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of AEK Athens are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 12

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

79

72

6

0

W 5

85

76

Dec 5

H

P.A.O.K.

W

85

84

5

0

W 4

80

83

Nov 21

A

Messolonghi

W

87

66

4

0

W 3

87

69

Nov 7

A

Peristeri

W

66

62

3

0

W 2

67

64

Oct 31

H

Larisa

W

87

68

2

0

W 1

74

70

Oct 24

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

81

68

1

0

W 0

77

70

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

A

Larisa

W

88

84

3

3

W 1

75

86

Dec 13

A

P.A.O.K.

L

64

75

2

3

L 2

60

74

Dec 9

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

71

92

2

2

L 1

70

90

Dec 5

H

Promitheas Patras

W

94

83

2

1

W 2

88

80

Nov 10

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

81

75

1

1

W 1

87

79

Oct 24

A

Messolonghi

L

70

73

0

1

L 0

70

77

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by AEK Athens and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aris.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aris and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by AEK Athens.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by AEK Athens (in the first graph) and by Aris in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, AEK Athens will expected to score 80 points and the Aris 74 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

AEK Athens

Aris

FG%

0.54

0.55

ASS

17.70

12.80

DRB

21.50

21.20

AST-TO

1.54

0.93

TRB

30.50

29.80

FTM

15.70

19.00

BL

3.00

2.20

FTA

21.70

24.80

PF-Fewer

24.00

19.50

ST

4.70

8.50

TO-Fewer

11.50

13.80

Ftper

0.72

0.76

ORBper

0.42

0.41

ORB

9.00

8.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Mesologgi BC vs Panathinaikos at 20 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Mesologgi BC and Panathinaikos for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 20 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books