2020 12 19 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Brindisi vs Victoria Libertas Pesaro at 19 December 2020
Universo Treviso vs Virtus Bologna at 20 December 2020
Fortitudo Bologna vs Vanoli Cremona at 20 December 2020
Cantu vs Brescia at 20 December 2020
Olimpia Milano vs Sassari at 20 December 2020
Trieste vs Aquila Basket Trento at 20 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Brindisi vs Victoria Libertas Pesaro at 19 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Brindisi and Victoria Libertas Pesaro for Serie A, which will take place on 19 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Brindisi

1.27

1.22

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

3.75

5.48

Brindisi HC

-7.5

-8.50

Victoria Libertas Pesaro HC

+7.5

8.50

Point Line

161.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brindisi are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 13

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

W

88

82

10

1

W 10

100

74

Dec 6

H

Red October Cantu

W

85

71

9

1

W 9

84

75

Nov 22

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

74

71

8

1

W 8

76

75

Nov 15

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

100

87

7

1

W 7

94

78

Nov 7

A

Virtus Bologna

W

98

88

6

1

W 6

102

86

Nov 1

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

100

74

5

1

W 5

94

75

Oct 25

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

79

76

4

1

W 4

83

84

Oct 18

H

Universo Treviso

W

99

83

3

1

W 3

86

77

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Victoria Libertas Pesaro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 12

H

Fortitudo Bologna

L

70

78

5

5

L 2

66

79

Dec 6

A

Universo Treviso

L

81

91

5

4

L 1

71

85

Nov 22

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

84

63

5

3

W 4

88

65

Nov 8

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

85

78

4

3

W 3

78

78

Nov 1

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

95

83

3

3

W 2

92

79

Oct 25

A

Virtus Roma

W

84

69

2

3

W 1

77

74

Oct 17

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

57

71

1

3

L 1

59

73

Oct 11

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

90

72

1

2

W 1

94

75

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brindisi and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Victoria Libertas Pesaro.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Victoria Libertas Pesaro and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brindisi.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Brindisi (in the first graph) and by Victoria Libertas Pesaro in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Brindisi will expected to score 83 points and the Victoria Libertas Pesaro 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Brindisi

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

FG%

0.54

0.52

ASS

16.60

14.00

DRB

25.10

24.80

AST-TO

1.39

1.30

TRB

35.10

34.90

FTM

16.00

14.00

BL

2.50

1.10

FTA

20.50

19.10

PF-Fewer

17.90

20.40

ST

6.80

6.50

TO-Fewer

11.90

10.80

Ftper

0.78

0.73

ORBper

0.40

0.41

ORB

10.00

10.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Universo Treviso vs Virtus Bologna at 20 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Universo Treviso and Virtus Bologna for Serie A, which will take place on 20 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Universo Treviso

5.25

2.52

Virtus Bologna

1.16

1.66

Universo Treviso HC

+10.5

3.50

Virtus Bologna HC

-10.5

-3.50

Point Line

165.5

170.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Universo Treviso are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

101

90

5

5

W 1

98

85

Dec 13

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

93

97

4

5

L 1

87

87

Dec 6

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

91

81

4

4

W 1

94

82

Dec 3

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

74

98

3

4

L 1

78

102

Nov 18

H

Red October Cantu

W

89

82

3

3

W 2

88

86

Nov 7

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

98

87

2

3

W 1

92

88

Oct 18

A

Enel Brindisi

L

83

99

1

3

L 3

87

91

Oct 11

H

Germani Basket Brescia

L

87

94

1

2

L 2

89

99

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 13

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

77

60

6

4

W 1

81

66

Dec 6

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

78

83

5

4

L 1

73

75

Nov 22

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

91

71

5

3

W 1

85

72

Nov 7

H

Enel Brindisi

L

88

98

4

3

L 1

92

90

Nov 1

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

83

68

4

2

W 2

87

71

Oct 24

A

Openjobmetis Varese

W

85

73

3

2

W 1

78

73

Oct 18

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

67

77

2

2

L 2

70

80

Oct 10

H

Vanoli Cremona

L

92

95

2

1

L 1

90

90

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Universo Treviso and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Universo Treviso.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Universo Treviso (in the first graph) and by Virtus Bologna in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Universo Treviso will expected to score 82 points and the Virtus Bologna 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 168.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Universo Treviso

Virtus Bologna

FG%

0.53

0.54

ASS

18.50

21.20

DRB

20.30

25.30

AST-TO

1.80

1.50

TRB

30.10

34.90

FTM

14.40

12.60

BL

1.40

2.60

FTA

17.50

17.60

PF-Fewer

22.40

20.70

ST

7.40

8.50

TO-Fewer

10.30

14.10

Ftper

0.82

0.72

ORBper

0.48

0.38

ORB

9.80

9.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Fortitudo Bologna vs Vanoli Cremona at 20 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Fortitudo Bologna and Vanoli Cremona for Serie A, which will take place on 20 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fortitudo Bologna

1.21

2.67

Vanoli Cremona

4.5

1.60

Fortitudo Bologna HC

-9.5

4.00

Vanoli Cremona HC

+9.5

-4.00

Point Line

163.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fortitudo Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

69

79

2

9

L 1

72

82

Dec 12

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

78

70

2

8

W 1

81

70

Dec 5

A

Germani Basket Brescia

L

85

99

1

8

L 6

87

104

Nov 22

H

Virtus Bologna

L

71

91

1

7

L 5

74

89

Nov 7

H

Universo Treviso

L

87

98

1

6

L 4

76

91

Nov 1

A

Enel Brindisi

L

74

100

1

5

L 3

77

92

Oct 25

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

71

82

1

4

L 2

80

74

Oct 18

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

86

89

1

3

L 1

81

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Vanoli Cremona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

A

Universo Treviso

L

90

101

4

5

L 1

79

94

Dec 9

H

Red October Cantu

W

101

67

4

4

W 2

100

71

Dec 6

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

85

56

3

4

W 1

89

58

Nov 1

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

83

95

2

4

L 2

86

96

Oct 25

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

83

85

2

3

L 1

86

88

Oct 17

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

80

67

2

2

W 2

74

67

Oct 10

A

Virtus Bologna

W

95

92

1

2

W 1

99

90

Oct 4

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

66

83

0

2

L 1

69

87

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fortitudo Bologna and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Vanoli Cremona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Vanoli Cremona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fortitudo Bologna.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fortitudo Bologna (in the first graph) and by Vanoli Cremona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fortitudo Bologna will expected to score 83 points and the Vanoli Cremona 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Fortitudo Bologna

Vanoli Cremona

FG%

0.51

0.51

ASS

16.80

14.60

DRB

22.10

27.40

AST-TO

1.40

1.47

TRB

30.40

37.70

FTM

12.80

15.40

BL

3.40

2.20

FTA

18.20

20.30

PF-Fewer

19.30

19.10

ST

9.20

5.60

TO-Fewer

12.00

9.90

Ftper

0.70

0.76

ORBper

0.38

0.37

ORB

8.30

10.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Cantu vs Brescia at 20 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Cantu and Brescia for Serie A, which will take place on 20 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Cantu

3.35

2.71

Brescia

1.33

1.58

Cantu HC

+7.5

4.00

Brescia HC

-7.5

-4.00

Point Line

155.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cantu are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

73

67

4

7

W 1

76

74

Dec 13

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

73

74

3

7

L 3

76

76

Dec 9

A

Vanoli Cremona

L

67

101

3

6

L 2

65

96

Dec 6

A

Enel Brindisi

L

71

85

3

5

L 1

74

78

Nov 22

H

Virtus Roma

W

101

85

3

4

W 1

93

91

Nov 18

A

Universo Treviso

L

82

89

2

4

L 3

72

83

Nov 15

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

71

89

2

3

L 2

80

80

Oct 18

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

67

75

2

2

L 1

70

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brescia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 13

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

71

69

4

7

W 2

74

72

Dec 5

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

99

85

3

7

W 1

93

86

Nov 22

A

Enel Brindisi

L

71

74

2

7

L 5

74

68

Nov 15

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

73

80

2

6

L 4

76

82

Nov 8

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

56

87

2

5

L 3

63

79

Oct 31

H

Virtus Roma

L

64

70

2

4

L 2

59

75

Oct 24

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

67

83

2

3

L 1

70

86

Oct 18

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

75

63

2

2

W 2

79

70

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cantu and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brescia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brescia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cantu.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Cantu (in the first graph) and by Brescia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Cantu will expected to score 78 points and the Brescia 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Cantu

Brescia

FG%

0.52

0.51

ASS

16.70

17.20

DRB

24.80

25.30

AST-TO

1.33

1.38

TRB

31.90

32.70

FTM

13.00

10.40

BL

3.10

1.10

FTA

18.30

12.40

PF-Fewer

17.10

20.50

ST

5.50

6.90

TO-Fewer

12.60

12.50

Ftper

0.71

0.84

ORBper

0.29

0.30

ORB

7.10

7.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Olimpia Milano vs Sassari at 20 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Olimpia Milano and Sassari for Serie A, which will take place on 20 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Olimpia Milano

1.25

1.80

Sassari

4

2.25

Olimpia Milano HC

-8.5

-2.50

Sassari HC

+8.5

2.50

Point Line

166.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 13

H

Enel Brindisi

L

82

88

10

1

L 1

86

81

Dec 6

A

Openjobmetis Varese

W

96

70

10

0

W 9

88

70

Nov 22

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

86

72

9

0

W 8

90

75

Nov 15

A

Red October Cantu

W

89

71

8

0