2020 12 19 Turkey Super League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Galatasaray vs Karsiyaka at 19 December 2020
Gaziantep vs Turk Telekom at 19 December 2020
Petkim Spor vs Darussafaka at 19 December 2020
Besiktas vs Buyukcekmece at 20 December 2020
Fethiye Belediye vs Bahcesehir Koleji at 20 December 2020
Ormanspor vs Afyon Belediye at 20 December 2020
Fenerbahce vs Bursaspor at 20 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Galatasaray vs Karsiyaka at 19 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Galatasaray and Karsiyaka for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 19 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Galatasaray

2

1.92

Karsiyaka

1.8

2.09

Galatasaray HC

+1.5

-1.50

Karsiyaka HC

-1.5

1.50

Point Line

162.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Galatasaray are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 12

A

Afyon

L

80

97

4

8

L 2

78

101

Dec 5

H

Buyukcekmece

L

87

91

4

7

L 1

80

89

Dec 2

A

Bahcesehir

W

95

78

4

6

W 2

96

80

Nov 21

H

Turk Telekom

W

94

89

3

6

W 1

93

85

Nov 14

A

Darussafaka

L

82

91

2

6

L 5

84

90

Nov 8

H

Tofas

L

79

91

2

5

L 4

77

85

Oct 31

A

Socar Spor

L

64

83

2

4

L 3

66

83

Oct 25

H

Gaziantep

L

86

90

2

3

L 2

94

98

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Karsiyaka are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

A

Buyukcekmece

W

90

77

9

3

W 4

83

76

Dec 12

H

Fenerbahce

W

83

79

8

3

W 3

89

72

Dec 6

A

Bursaspor

W

94

81

7

3

W 2

88

81

Dec 4

H

Bahcesehir

W

82

79

6

3

W 1

83

81

Dec 1

A

Anadolu Efes

L

61

74

5

3

L 1

69

69

Nov 21

H

Afyon

W

96

82

5

2

W 1

94

85

Nov 1

A

Turk Telekom

L

61

81

4

2

L 1

61

77

Oct 24

H

Darussafaka

W

89

78

4

1

W 3

92

77

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Galatasaray and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Karsiyaka.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Karsiyaka and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Galatasaray.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Galatasaray (in the first graph) and by Karsiyaka in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Galatasaray will expected to score 78 points and the Karsiyaka 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Galatasaray

Karsiyaka

FG%

0.56

0.54

ASS

19.10

18.90

DRB

23.00

24.60

AST-TO

1.53

1.48

TRB

29.50

33.80

FTM

14.30

18.30

BL

3.30

1.60

FTA

19.40

25.20

PF-Fewer

18.70

19.00

ST

5.80

6.80

TO-Fewer

12.50

12.80

Ftper

0.74

0.72

ORBper

0.28

0.37

ORB

6.50

9.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Gaziantep vs Turk Telekom at 19 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Gaziantep and Turk Telekom for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 19 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Gaziantep

2.55

2.78

Turk Telekom

1.5

1.56

Gaziantep HC

+4.5

4.50

Turk Telekom HC

-4.5

-4.50

Point Line

157.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gaziantep are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

H

Fethiye

W

84

64

5

6

W 1

77

71

Dec 13

A

Darussafaka

L

75

82

4

6

L 1

77

81

Dec 5

H

Tofas

W

68

67

4

5

W 1

66

63

Dec 1

A

Socar Spor

L

66

67

3

5

L 3

68

67

Nov 8

A

Besiktas

L

81

84

3

4

L 2

80

83

Nov 1

H

Ormanspor

L

76

87

3

3

L 1

70

92

Oct 25

A

Galatasaray

W

90

86

3

2

W 1

84

85

Oct 18

H

Fenerbahce

L

59

65

2

2

L 1

63

59

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Turk Telekom are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 13

H

Fethiye

W

87

75

8

4

W 1

80

83

Dec 5

A

Besiktas

L

60

94

7

4

L 1

59

93

Dec 2

H

Ormanspor

W

83

64

7

3

W 1

76

68

Nov 21

A

Galatasaray

L

89

94

6

3

L 2

83

93

Nov 14

H

Fenerbahce

L

81

82

6

2

L 1

87

74

Nov 7

A

Bursaspor

W

108

107

6

1

W 6

101

106

Nov 1

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

81

61

5

1

W 5

87

61

Oct 24

A

Afyon

W

89

84

4

1

W 4

87

87

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gaziantep and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Turk Telekom.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Turk Telekom and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gaziantep.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gaziantep (in the first graph) and by Turk Telekom in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gaziantep will expected to score 78 points and the Turk Telekom 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Gaziantep

Turk Telekom

FG%

0.52

0.55

ASS

20.10

19.10

DRB

22.80

25.10

AST-TO

1.88

1.66

TRB

31.70

34.10

FTM

11.60

14.30

BL

2.50

2.60

FTA

17.10

19.60

PF-Fewer

21.50

19.60

ST

7.00

4.60

TO-Fewer

10.70

11.50

Ftper

0.68

0.73

ORBper

0.39

0.36

ORB

8.90

9.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Petkim Spor vs Darussafaka at 19 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Petkim Spor and Darussafaka for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 19 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Petkim Spor

2.25

2.48

Darussafaka

1.61

1.68

Petkim Spor HC

+3.5

3.50

Darussafaka HC

-3.5

-3.50

Point Line

160.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Petkim Spor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

H

Anadolu Efes

L

71

75

5

6

L 1

80

70

Dec 1

H

Gaziantep

W

67

66

5

5

W 1

73

72

Nov 21

A

Fethiye

L

74

75

4

5

L 1

68

83

Nov 15

H

Besiktas

W

82

72

4

4

W 3

81

71

Nov 7

A

Ormanspor

W

106

90

3

4

W 2

97

96

Oct 31

H

Galatasaray

W

83

64

2

4

W 1

77

63

Oct 25

A

Fenerbahce

L

70

93

1

4

L 1

75

84

Oct 17

H

Bursaspor

W

108

80

1

3

W 1

101

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Darussafaka are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 13

H

Gaziantep

W

82

75

6

6

W 2

90

82

Dec 5

A

Fethiye

W

78

54

5

6

W 1

72

60

Dec 2

H

Besiktas

L

82

86

4

6

L 1

81

85

Nov 21

A

Ormanspor

W

80

64

4

5

W 2

73

68

Nov 14

H

Galatasaray

W

91

82

3

5

W 1

85

81

Nov 8

A

Fenerbahce

L

79

90

2

5

L 1

84

82

Oct 31

H

Bursaspor

W

78

75

2

4

W 1

73

75

Oct 24

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

78

89

1

4

L 1

84

89

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Petkim Spor and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Darussafaka.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Darussafaka and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Petkim Spor.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Petkim Spor (in the first graph) and by Darussafaka in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Petkim Spor will expected to score 80 points and the Darussafaka 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Petkim Spor

Darussafaka

FG%

0.58

0.51

ASS

21.70

18.30

DRB

21.70

21.20

AST-TO

1.68

1.55

TRB

31.50

32.80

FTM

11.00

16.90

BL

1.90

2.80

FTA

16.30

20.80

PF-Fewer

22.70

22.90

ST

5.40

7.60

TO-Fewer

12.90

11.80

Ftper

0.68

0.81

ORBper

0.45

0.55

ORB

9.80

11.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Besiktas vs Buyukcekmece at 20 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Besiktas and Buyukcekmece for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 20 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Besiktas

1.47

1.56

Buyukcekmece

2.6

2.78

Besiktas HC

-4.5

-4.50

Buyukcekmece HC

+4.5

4.50

Point Line

166.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Besiktas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 12

A

Bahcesehir

W

86

76

5

7

W 4

87

78

Dec 5

H

Turk Telekom

W

94

60

4

7

W 3

93

57

Dec 2

A

Darussafaka

W

86

82

3

7

W 2

88

81

Nov 22

H

Tofas

W

94

85

2

7

W 1

92

80

Nov 15

A

Socar Spor

L

72

82

1

7

L 1

74

82

Nov 8

H

Gaziantep

W

84

81

1

6

W 1

92

88

Nov 1

A

Fethiye

L

83

87

0

6

L 5

76

96

Oct 26

H

Anadolu Efes

L

74

81

0

5

L 4

84

76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buyukcekmece are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

77

90

5

6

L 1

83

90

Dec 13

H

Ormanspor

W

89

82

5

5

W 3

82

87

Dec 5

A

Galatasaray

W

91

87

4

5

W 2

85

86

Dec 1

H

Fenerbahce

W

93

91

3

5

W 1

100

83

Nov 8

A

Afyon

L

74

79

2

5

L 4

73

82

Nov 1

A

Anadolu Efes

L

79

98

2

4

L 3

90

92

Oct 24

H

Bahcesehir

L

66

92

2

3

L 2

67

95

Oct 18

A

Turk Telekom

L

89

95

2

2

L 1

88

91

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Besiktas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buyukcekmece.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buyukcekmece and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Besiktas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Besiktas (in the first graph) and by Buyukcekmece in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Besiktas will expected to score 86 points and the Buyukcekmece 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 169.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Besiktas

Buyukcekmece

FG%

0.51

0.50

ASS

18.80

17.50

DRB

22.20

23.90

AST-TO

1.40

1.70

TRB

34.60

32.70

FTM

15.50

13.60

BL

3.30

2.10

FTA

20.60

18.00

PF-Fewer

23.30

20.90

ST

6.50

6.10

TO-Fewer

13.40

10.30

Ftper

0.75

0.76

ORBper

0.56

0.37

ORB

12.40

8.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Fethiye Belediye vs Bahcesehir Koleji at 20 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Fethiye Belediye and Bahcesehir Koleji for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 20 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fethiye Belediye

2.3

1.83

Bahcesehir Koleji

1.6

2.21

Fethiye Belediye HC

+2.5

-2.00

Bahcesehir Koleji HC

-2.5

2.00

Point Line

160.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fethiye Belediye are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

A

Gaziantep

L

64

84

3

9

L 4

70

92

Dec 13

A

Turk Telekom

L

75

87

3

8

L 3

74

83

Dec 5

H

Darussafaka

L

54

78

3

7

L 2

56

77

Dec 2

A

Tofas

L