2020 12 21 7DAYS EuroCup



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Virtus Bologna vs Andorra at 22 December 2020
Nanterre vs Bursaspor at 22 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Virtus Bologna vs Andorra at 22 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Bologna and Andorra for EuroCup, which will take place on 22 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Virtus Bologna

1.24

1.63

Andorra

4.15

2.58

Virtus Bologna HC

-8.5

-3.50

Andorra HC

+8.5

3.50

Point Line

158.5

153.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

H

Antwerp Giants

W

92

73

9

0

W 8

85

80

Dec 9

A

Monaco

W

74

68

8

0

W 7

81

69

Nov 20

H

Lietkabelis

W

82

73

7

0

W 6

80

81

Nov 11

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

89

83

6

0

W 5

89

73

Oct 27

A

Antwerp Giants

W

95

76

5

0

W 4

88

83

Oct 21

H

Monaco

W

94

85

4

0

W 3

103

86

Oct 13

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

82

66

3

0

W 2

86

71

Oct 7

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

85

79

2

0

W 1

85

69

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

A

Lietkabelis

L

69

77

3

5

L 2

67

85

Dec 9

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

100

106

3

4

L 1

100

93

Nov 19

H

Antwerp Giants

W

82

69

3

3

W 2

76

75

Oct 27

H

Lietkabelis

W

76

66

2

3

W 1

74

73

Oct 21

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

61

76

1

3

L 2

61

66

Oct 13

H

Virtus Bologna

L

66

82

1

2

L 1

72

77

Oct 6

A

Antwerp Giants

W

71

60

1

1

W 1

66

66

Sep 30

H

Monaco

L

76

82

0

1

L 0

83

83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Virtus Bologna (in the first graph) and by Andorra in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Virtus Bologna will expected to score 82 points and the Andorra 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Virtus Bologna

Andorra

FG%

0.59

0.46

ASS

23.70

15.50

DRB

23.90

22.40

AST-TO

1.47

1.18

TRB

30.90

33.30

FTM

14.60

13.40

BL

4.10

3.50

FTA

19.10

17.10

PF-Fewer

22.60

21.00

ST

9.80

8.30

TO-Fewer

16.10

13.10

Ftper

0.76

0.78

ORBper

0.29

0.49

ORB

7.00

10.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Nanterre vs Bursaspor at 22 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Nanterre and Bursaspor for EuroCup, which will take place on 22 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Nanterre

1.57

2.10

Bursaspor

2.4

1.91

Nanterre HC

-3.5

1.50

Bursaspor HC

+3.5

-1.50

Point Line

164.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nanterre are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 8

H

Promitheas

W

91

70

3

3

W 2

86

75

Nov 18

A

Dolomiti Energia Trento

W

104

102

2

3

W 1

111

102

Nov 4

A

Cedevita Olimpija

L

63

75

1

3

L 3

70

72

Oct 21

A

Promitheas

L

72

88

1

2

L 2

68

94

Oct 13

H

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

65

71

1

1

L 1

70

71

Sep 30

H

Cedevita Olimpija

W

80

76

1

0

W 0

89

73

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bursaspor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 11

H

Cedevita Olimpija

L

80

97

0

5

L 4

89

93

Nov 9

A

Cedevita Olimpija

L

88

104

0

4

L 3

98

100

Nov 4

A

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

80

89

0

3

L 2

86

89

Oct 13

H

Promitheas

L

84

93

0

2

L 1

80

100

Sep 29

H

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

86

93

0

1

L 0

92

93

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nanterre and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bursaspor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bursaspor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nanterre.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Nanterre (in the first graph) and by Bursaspor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Nanterre will expected to score 88 points and the Bursaspor 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 174.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Nanterre

Bursaspor

FG%

0.52

0.58

ASS

16.20

20.40

DRB

26.00

22.60

AST-TO

1.20

1.67

TRB

34.30

27.40

FTM

12.70

12.80

BL

2.80

1.80

FTA

18.20

15.40

PF-Fewer

17.80

16.20

ST

5.30

4.20

TO-Fewer

13.50

12.20

Ftper

0.70

0.83

ORBper

0.32

0.21

ORB

8.30

4.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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