2020 12 21 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Anadolu Efes vs Barcelona at 22 December 2020
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Panathinaikos at 22 December 2020
Real Madrid vs Alba Berlin at 22 December 2020
Villeurbanne vs CSKA Moscow at 22 December 2020
Zalgiris vs Bayern Munich at 23 December 2020
Fenerbahce vs Olympiacos at 23 December 2020
Olimpia Milano vs Baskonia at 23 December 2020
Valencia vs Khimki at 23 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Anadolu Efes vs Barcelona at 22 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Anadolu Efes and Barcelona for EuroLeague, which will take place on 22 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Anadolu Efes

2.17

1.73

Barcelona

1.73

2.37

Anadolu Efes HC

+2.5

-3.00

Barcelona HC

-2.5

3.00

Point Line

153.5

150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Anadolu Efes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 17

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

69

72

7

8

L 3

68

69

Dec 15

A

CSKA Moscow

L

65

100

7

7

L 2

66

93

Dec 10

A

Valencia Basket

L

74

76

7

6

L 1

72

72

Dec 8

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

72

68

7

5

W 1

72

71

Dec 4

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

59

77

6

5

L 1

62

78

Nov 26

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

75

64

6

4

W 2

76

67

Nov 19

A

BC Khimki

W

105

77

5

4

W 1

92

76

Nov 17

H

Bayern Munich

L

71

74

4

4

L 1

74

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 18

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

67

68

11

4

L 1

68

69

Dec 16

H

BC Khimki

W

87

74

11

3

W 2

76

73

Dec 11

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

87

71

10

3

W 1

86

68

Dec 8

H

Olympiacos

L

88

96

9

3

L 1

87

97

Dec 4

A

Zalgiris

W

73

62

9

2

W 1

74

61

Nov 27

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

68

80

8

2

L 1

68

83

Nov 20

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

76

65

8

1

W 7

77

68

Nov 12

H

Fenerbahce

W

97

55

7

1

W 6

95

60

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Anadolu Efes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Anadolu Efes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Anadolu Efes (in the first graph) and by Barcelona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Anadolu Efes will expected to score 74 points and the Barcelona 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 153.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Anadolu Efes

Barcelona

FG%

0.55

0.49

ASS

17.30

16.70

DRB

19.40

17.90

AST-TO

1.56

1.27

TRB

25.90

26.50

FTM

11.90

12.30

BL

3.40

2.60

FTA

15.70

15.70

PF-Fewer

17.00

20.70

ST

6.70

6.80

TO-Fewer

11.10

13.10

Ftper

0.76

0.78

ORBper

0.34

0.49

ORB

6.50

8.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Panathinaikos at 22 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Panathinaikos for EuroLeague, which will take place on 22 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.33

2.82

Panathinaikos

3.45

1.55

Maccabi Tel Aviv HC

-7.5

4.50

Panathinaikos HC

+7.5

-4.50

Point Line

157.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Tel Aviv are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 18

A

FC Barcelona

W

68

67

6

9

W 1

74

65

Dec 16

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

81

84

5

9

L 1

81

87

Dec 10

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

67

63

5

8

W 2

70

64

Dec 3

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

81

76

4

8

W 1

82

79

Nov 26

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

85

86

3

8

L 3

84

83

Nov 20

A

Valencia Basket

L

80

82

3

7

L 2

78

78

Nov 18

A

Real Madrid

L

63

79

3

6

L 1

62

75

Nov 12

H

Zalgiris

W

85

57

3

5

W 1

86

56

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 17

H

Alba Berlin

W

92

69

5

9

W 1

87

70

Dec 15

H

Real Madrid

L

93

97

4

9

L 2

92

92

Dec 11

H

Zalgiris

L

69

81

4

8

L 1

70

79

Dec 3

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

80

77

4

7

W 1

79

74

Dec 1

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

73

97

3

7

L 1

73

101

Nov 27

H

Bayern Munich

W

83

76

3

6

W 1

86

76

Nov 19

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

72

93

2

6

L 4

75

94

Nov 17

A

Valencia Basket

L

83

95

2

5

L 3

80

91

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv (in the first graph) and by Panathinaikos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Maccabi Tel Aviv will expected to score 80 points and the Panathinaikos 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Panathinaikos

FG%

0.52

0.53

ASS

15.90

17.50

DRB

23.30

21.80

AST-TO

1.19

1.51

TRB

32.40

31.10

FTM

11.90

12.60

BL

2.60

2.90

FTA

15.70

17.10

PF-Fewer

19.30

21.00

ST

7.30

5.70

TO-Fewer

13.40

11.60

Ftper

0.76

0.74

ORBper

0.39

0.43

ORB

9.10

9.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Real Madrid vs Alba Berlin at 22 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and Alba Berlin for EuroLeague, which will take place on 22 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Real Madrid

1.13

1.67

Alba Berlin

6.55

2.50

Real Madrid HC

-11.5

-3.50

Alba Berlin HC

+11.5

3.50

Point Line

164.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 18

A

Olympiacos

W

86

82

10

5

W 4

85

83

Dec 15

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

97

93

9

5

W 3

91

91

Dec 10

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

79

72

8

5

W 2

85

76

Dec 4

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

91

84

7

5

W 1

91

87

Nov 26

A

CSKA Moscow

L

73

74

6

5

L 1

74

69

Nov 20

H

Fenerbahce

W

94

74

6

4

W 5

92

80

Nov 18

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

79

63

5

4

W 4

80

64

Nov 13

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

73

67

4

4

W 3

74

70

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Alba Berlin are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 17

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

69

92

6

8

L 1

64

90

Dec 15

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

90

84

6

7

W 3

91

88

Dec 10

H

Fenerbahce

W

89

63

5

7

W 2

87

68

Dec 3

A

Valencia Basket

W

100

92

4

7

W 1

97

88

Dec 1

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

55

75

3

7

L 1

54

72

Nov 26

H

BC Khimki

W

100

80

3

6

W 1

88

79

Nov 20

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

66

73

2

6

L 1

71

78

Nov 18

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

76

75

2

5

W 1

76

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Madrid and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Alba Berlin.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Alba Berlin and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Madrid.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Real Madrid (in the first graph) and by Alba Berlin in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Real Madrid will expected to score 84 points and the Alba Berlin 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Real Madrid

Alba Berlin

FG%

0.56

0.52

ASS

19.10

20.00

DRB

21.80

19.60

AST-TO

1.66

1.46

TRB

30.10

28.90

FTM

13.20

11.40

BL

3.60

2.30

FTA

16.20

13.90

PF-Fewer

19.70

19.50

ST

6.90

7.20

TO-Fewer

11.50

13.70

Ftper

0.81

0.82

ORBper

0.38

0.47

ORB

8.30

9.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Villeurbanne vs CSKA Moscow at 22 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Villeurbanne and CSKA Moscow for EuroLeague, which will take place on 22 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Villeurbanne

3.75

2.24

CSKA Moscow

1.3

1.81

Villeurbanne HC

+7.5

2.50

CSKA Moscow HC

-7.5

-2.50

Point Line

158.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Villeurbanne are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 18

H

BC Khimki

W

90

84

5

9

W 2

79

83

Dec 16

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

84

81

4

9

W 1

85

82

Dec 11

A

Bayern Munich

L

62

76

3

9

L 3

64

76

Dec 8

A

Anadolu Efes

L

68

72

3

8

L 2

69

74

Dec 4

A

Real Madrid

L

84

91

3

7

L 1

83

86

Dec 1

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

97

73

3

6

W 2

91

71

Nov 27

H

FC Barcelona

W

80

68

2

6

W 1

87

66

Nov 18

A

Alba Berlin

L

75

76

1

6

L 3

71

76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 18

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

83

65

12

3

W 10

89

69

Dec 15

H

Anadolu Efes

W

100

65

11

3

W 9

101

67

Dec 11

A

BC Khimki

W

96

87

10

3

W 8

84

86

Dec 3

H

Olympiacos

W

80

61

9

3

W 7

79

61

Nov 26

H

Real Madrid

W

74

73

8

3

W 6

73

69

Nov 19

A

Bayern Munich

W

89

81

7

3

W 5

92

81

Nov 17

A

Zalgiris

W

87

78

6

3

W 4

88

76

Nov 12

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

89

86

5

3

W 3

93

87

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Villeurbanne and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by CSKA Moscow.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by CSKA Moscow and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Villeurbanne.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Villeurbanne (in the first graph) and by CSKA Moscow in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Villeurbanne will expected to score 77 points and the CSKA Moscow 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Villeurbanne

CSKA Moscow

FG%

0.55

0.52

ASS

16.20

16.60

DRB

22.10

20.60

AST-TO

1.10

1.32

TRB

29.00

29.40

FTM

12.90

13.10

BL

3.00

2.70

FTA

16.70

15.90

PF-Fewer

22.40

22.90

ST

6.70

6.20

TO-Fewer

14.70

12.60

Ftper

0.77

0.82

ORBper

0.31

0.43

ORB

6.90

8.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Zalgiris vs Bayern Munich at 23 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Zalgiris and Bayern Munich for EuroLeague, which will take place on 23 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zalgiris

1.59

1.29

Bayern Munich

2.45

4.39

Zalgiris HC

-3.5

-7.50

Bayern Munich HC

+3.5

7.50

Point Line

154.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zalgiris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 17

H

Fenerbahce

W

99

62

8

7

W 3

97

67

Dec 15

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

92

73

7

7

W 2

96

74

Dec 11

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

81

69

6

7

W 1

76

68

Dec 4

H

FC Barcelona

L

62

73

5

7

L 6

68

71