2020 12 22 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Dover Athletic vs Chesterfield at 22 December 2020
Halifax vs Eastleigh at 22 December 2020
Hartlepool vs Stockport at 22 December 2020


Dover Athletic vs Chesterfield at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Dover Athletic and Chesterfield for Conference (England), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Dover Athletic

4.00

3.82

1.2

Draw

3.80

3.70

0.7

Chesterfield

1.76

2.14

-10.1

Over 2.5

1.64

1.93

-9.2

Under 2.5

2.21

2.07

3.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Dover Athletic, Draw, Under 2.5 (1.2 %, 0.7 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Dover Athletic in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dover Athletic in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dover Athletic’s performance at home.
Dover Athletic, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dover Athletic was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Nov

King’s Lynn

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Nov

Woking

H

1

5

L

O

G

31 Oct

Altrincham

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Oct

Eastleigh

H

3

2

W

O

G

17 Oct

Torquay

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Oct

Aldershot

H

0

5

L

O

N

10 Oct

Stockport

A

0

3

L

O

N

06 Oct

Bromley

A

1

4

L

O

G


Chesterfield in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chesterfield in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance as a guest.
Chesterfield, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Barnet

H

6

0

W

O

N

08 Dec

Sutton

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Aldershot

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Weymouth

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Notts County

H

2

3

L

O

G

17 Nov

Altrincham

A

2

3

L

O

G

14 Nov

Maidenhead

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Yeovil

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dover Athletic and the red line for guest team, Chesterfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Dover Athletic

26%

46%

18%

10%

Chesterfield

20%

32%

27%

21%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dover Athletic to score 1.01 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the guest team Chesterfield to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dover Athletic to score 1.11 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.49 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the guest team Chesterfield to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

19.23

0-1

4.37

1

5.65

2-3

1.96

2

3.92

4+

3.83

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.65

Un 1.5

4.37

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.69

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

2.45

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.49

4.40

2.69

2-3 goals

4.56

3.41

2.05

4+ goals

4.50

3.78

1.95

Ov 1.5

4.54

3.53

2.02

Un 1.5

2.49

4.40

2.69

Ov 2.5

3.83

7.49

1.65

Un 2.5

3.81

2.40

3.12

Ov 3.5

4.50

3.78

1.95

Un 3.5

3.63

3.66

2.22

Goal-Goal

5.11

2.71

2.30

No Goal

2.79

7.85

1.94

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.82

6.42

1.72

NG+Un 2.5

2.63

7.85

2.15


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Halifax vs Eastleigh at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Halifax and Eastleigh for Conference (England), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Halifax

2.28

2.72

-7.1

Draw

3.45

3.70

-2.0

Eastleigh

2.83

2.75

1.0

Over 2.5

1.80

2.05

-6.8

Under 2.5

1.98

1.95

0.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Eastleigh, Under 2.5 (1 %, 0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Halifax in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance at home.
Halifax, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Solihull

A

1

2

L

O

G

08 Dec

Aldershot

A

3

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Weymouth

A

5

1

W

O

G

02 Dec

Barnet

H

5

2

W

O

G

28 Nov

Sutton

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Torquay

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Nov

Notts County

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Nov

Wealdstone

H

0

1

L

U

N


Eastleigh in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eastleigh in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance as a guest.
Eastleigh, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Dec

Maidenhead

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

Yeovil

A

3

1

W

O

G

17 Nov

Wealdstone

H

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Bromley

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Dover Athletic

A

2

3

L

O

G

17 Oct

Aldershot

H

2

2

D

O

G

10 Oct

Altrincham

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Oct

Torquay

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Halifax and the red line for guest team, Eastleigh.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Halifax

28%

34%

23%

15%

Eastleigh

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.42 goals and Eastleigh to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.26 goals and Eastleigh to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.76

1

5.29

2-3

2.06

2

4.08

4+

4.05

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.76

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

4.05

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.86

3.45

2.77

2-3 goals

2.63

4.15

2.64

4+ goals

2.78

3.25

3.01

Ov 1.5

2.68

3.80

2.76

Un 1.5

2.86

3.45

2.77

Ov 2.5

2.31

6.42

2.43

Un 2.5

3.28

2.63

3.17

Ov 3.5

2.78

3.25

3.01

Un 3.5

2.71

3.88

2.69

Goal-Goal

3.09

2.71

3.25

No Goal

2.40

6.18

2.37

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.40

5.34

2.52

NG+Un 2.5

2.53

6.18

2.45


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Hartlepool vs Stockport at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Hartlepool and Stockport for Conference (England), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hartlepool

2.76

3.00

-2.9

Draw

3.19

3.64

-3.9

Stockport

2.46

2.55

-1.4

Over 2.5

2.03

2.00

0.7

Under 2.5

1.77

2.00

-6.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hartlepool in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance at home.
Hartlepool, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Woking

A

0

3

L

O

N

08 Dec

King’s Lynn

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Boreham Wood

H

1

2

L

O

G

01 Dec

Solihull

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Nov

Barnet

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Yeovil

A

3

1

W

O

G

17 Nov

Wrexham

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Torquay

H

0

5

L

O

N


Stockport in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance as a guest.
Stockport, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stockport was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Notts County

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Dec

Barnet

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Bromley

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Weymouth

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Oct

Solihull

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Chesterfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Oct

Wealdstone

A

5

2

W

O

G

10 Oct

Dover Athletic

H

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hartlepool and the red line for guest team, Stockport.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hartlepool

24%

42%

21%

12%

Stockport

25%

34%

25%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hartlepool to score 1.15 goals and Stockport to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hartlepool to score 1.22 goals and Stockport to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.39

0-1

4.05

1

5.38

2-3

2.00

2

3.94

4+

3.95

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.06

Un 1.5

4.05

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.76

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.31

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.38

4.05

3.01

2-3 goals

3.21

3.55

2.46

4+ goals

3.47

3.42

2.39

Ov 1.5

3.29

3.51

2.43

Un 1.5

2.38

4.05

3.01

Ov 2.5

2.84

6.76

2.00

Un 2.5

3.19

2.48

3.53

Ov 3.5

3.47

3.42

2.39

Un 3.5

2.88

3.70

2.62

Goal-Goal

3.92

2.65

2.72

No Goal

2.30

7.08

2.36

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.95

5.78

2.05

NG+Un 2.5

2.29

7.08

2.54


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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