# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Dover Athletic vs Chesterfield at 22 December 2020**** Halifax vs Eastleigh at 22 December 2020**** Hartlepool vs Stockport at 22 December 2020**

###
Dover Athletic vs Chesterfield at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Dover Athletic** and **Chesterfield** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **22 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Dover Athletic |
4.00 |
3.82 |
1.2 |

Draw |
3.80 |
3.70 |
0.7 |

Chesterfield |
1.76 |
2.14 |
-10.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.93 |
-9.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.21 |
2.07 |
3.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Dover Athletic, Draw, Under 2.5 (1.2 %, 0.7 %, 3.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Dover Athletic** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Dover Athletic** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dover Athletic’s performance** at home**.

Dover Athletic,** at home**, had 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dover Athletic was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Nov |
King’s Lynn |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Nov |
Woking |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Altrincham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Eastleigh |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Torquay |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Oct |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

10 Oct |
Stockport |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Oct |
Bromley |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**Chesterfield** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chesterfield** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance** as a guest**.

Chesterfield,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Chesterfield** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Barnet |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Dec |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Weymouth |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Notts County |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Altrincham |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Maidenhead |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Yeovil |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Dover Athletic** and the red line for guest team, **Chesterfield. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Dover Athletic |
26% |
46% |
18% |
10% |

Chesterfield |
20% |
32% |
27% |
21% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Dover Athletic** to score **1.01 ** goals and **Chesterfield** to score **1.85 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.86** goals in the game and the guest team **Chesterfield ** to win by **0.84** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Dover Athletic** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Chesterfield** to score **1.49 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and the guest team **Chesterfield ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
19.23 |
0-1 |
4.37 |

1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
3.83 |

3 |
3.91 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |

4 |
5.65 |
Un 1.5 |
4.37 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.07 |

Gg |
1.69 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |

NoG |
2.45 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.49 |
4.40 |
2.69 |

2-3 goals |
4.56 |
3.41 |
2.05 |

4+ goals |
4.50 |
3.78 |
1.95 |

Ov 1.5 |
4.54 |
3.53 |
2.02 |

Un 1.5 |
2.49 |
4.40 |
2.69 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.83 |
7.49 |
1.65 |

Un 2.5 |
3.81 |
2.40 |
3.12 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.50 |
3.78 |
1.95 |

Un 3.5 |
3.63 |
3.66 |
2.22 |

Goal-Goal |
5.11 |
2.71 |
2.30 |

No Goal |
2.79 |
7.85 |
1.94 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.82 |
6.42 |
1.72 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.63 |
7.85 |
2.15 |

####
Go to Top

###
Halifax vs Eastleigh at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Halifax** and **Eastleigh** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **22 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Halifax |
2.28 |
2.72 |
-7.1 |

Draw |
3.45 |
3.70 |
-2.0 |

Eastleigh |
2.83 |
2.75 |
1.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.80 |
2.05 |
-6.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.98 |
1.95 |
0.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Eastleigh, Under 2.5 (1 %, 0.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Halifax** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Halifax** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Halifax** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance** at home**.

Halifax,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Aldershot |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Weymouth |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Barnet |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Sutton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Torquay |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Notts County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Nov |
Wealdstone |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Eastleigh** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Eastleigh** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance** as a guest**.

Eastleigh,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Eastleigh** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Dec |
Maidenhead |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Yeovil |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Wealdstone |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Dover Athletic |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Aldershot |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Oct |
Altrincham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Oct |
Torquay |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Halifax** and the red line for guest team, **Eastleigh. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Halifax |
28% |
34% |
23% |
15% |

Eastleigh |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Halifax** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Eastleigh** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.64** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Halifax** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Eastleigh** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.01** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.76 |

1 |
5.29 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.05 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.05 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.86 |
3.45 |
2.77 |

2-3 goals |
2.63 |
4.15 |
2.64 |

4+ goals |
2.78 |
3.25 |
3.01 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.68 |
3.80 |
2.76 |

Un 1.5 |
2.86 |
3.45 |
2.77 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |
6.42 |
2.43 |

Un 2.5 |
3.28 |
2.63 |
3.17 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.78 |
3.25 |
3.01 |

Un 3.5 |
2.71 |
3.88 |
2.69 |

Goal-Goal |
3.09 |
2.71 |
3.25 |

No Goal |
2.40 |
6.18 |
2.37 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.40 |
5.34 |
2.52 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
6.18 |
2.45 |

####
Go to Top

###
Hartlepool vs Stockport at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Hartlepool** and **Stockport** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **22 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Hartlepool |
2.76 |
3.00 |
-2.9 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.64 |
-3.9 |

Stockport |
2.46 |
2.55 |
-1.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.00 |
0.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
2.00 |
-6.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Hartlepool** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hartlepool** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance** at home**.

Hartlepool,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Woking |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

08 Dec |
King’s Lynn |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Solihull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Barnet |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Yeovil |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Wrexham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

**Stockport** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Stockport scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stockport** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Stockport scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance** as a guest**.

Stockport,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Stockport scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stockport was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Barnet |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Weymouth |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Solihull |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Chesterfield |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Oct |
Wealdstone |
A |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Oct |
Dover Athletic |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Hartlepool** and the red line for guest team, **Stockport. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Hartlepool |
24% |
42% |
21% |
12% |

Stockport |
25% |
34% |
25% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Hartlepool** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Stockport** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.1** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Hartlepool** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Stockport** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.39 |
0-1 |
4.05 |

1 |
5.38 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
3.95 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
1.76 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |

NoG |
2.31 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.38 |
4.05 |
3.01 |

2-3 goals |
3.21 |
3.55 |
2.46 |

4+ goals |
3.47 |
3.42 |
2.39 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.29 |
3.51 |
2.43 |

Un 1.5 |
2.38 |
4.05 |
3.01 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.84 |
6.76 |
2.00 |

Un 2.5 |
3.19 |
2.48 |
3.53 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.47 |
3.42 |
2.39 |

Un 3.5 |
2.88 |
3.70 |
2.62 |

Goal-Goal |
3.92 |
2.65 |
2.72 |

No Goal |
2.30 |
7.08 |
2.36 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.95 |
5.78 |
2.05 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.29 |
7.08 |
2.54 |

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