2020 12 22 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

PSV Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo at 22 December 2020
For Sittard vs Waalwijk at 22 December 2020
FC Emmen vs Utrecht at 22 December 2020
Twente vs Sparta Rotterdam at 22 December 2020
Groningen vs Heracles at 23 December 2020
Willem II vs Ajax at 23 December 2020
Den Haag vs Zwolle at 23 December 2020
AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse at 23 December 2020
Feyenoord vs Heerenveen at 23 December 2020


PSV Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between PSV Eindhoven and VVV Venlo for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

PSV Eindhoven

1.15

1.64

-26.0

Draw

8.28

4.41

10.6

VVV Venlo

15.15

6.06

9.9

Over 2.5

1.31

2.03

-27.1

Under 2.5

3.37

1.97

21.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, VVV Venlo, Under 2.5 (10.6 %, 9.9 %, 21.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

PSV Eindhoven in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PSV Eindhoven in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at PSV Eindhoven’s performance at home.
PSV Eindhoven, at home, had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PSV Eindhoven was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Waalwijk

A

4

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Utrecht

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Heerenveen

A

2

2

D

O

G

29 Nov

Sparta Rotterdam

H

1

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Twente

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Willem II

H

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Den Haag

H

4

0

W

O

N

25 Oct

Vitesse

A

1

2

L

O

G


VVV Venlo in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, VVV Venlo in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance as a guest.
VVV Venlo, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Twente

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Dec

Feyenoord

H

0

3

L

O

N

05 Dec

Waalwijk

A

2

3

L

O

G

28 Nov

Zwolle

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Willem II

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Heracles

H

3

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Groningen

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Ajax

H

0

13

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, PSV Eindhoven and the red line for guest team, VVV Venlo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

PSV Eindhoven

20%

20%

33%

26%

VVV Venlo

47%

32%

17%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) PSV Eindhoven to score 3.24 goals and VVV Venlo to score 0.44 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.68 goals in the game and the home team PSV Eindhoven to win by 2.8 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) PSV Eindhoven to score 1.66 goals and VVV Venlo to score 0.79 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team PSV Eindhoven to win by 0.87 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.42

0-1

3.94

1

6.33

2-3

1.90

2

3.94

4+

4.55

3

3.69

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.94

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

2.38

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

1.73

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.73

2.65

3.91

2-3 goals

1.36

8.47

6.73

4+ goals

1.71

3.19

10.00

Ov 1.5

1.45

5.69

7.45

Un 1.5

2.73

2.65

3.91

Ov 2.5

1.37

7.12

7.67

Un 2.5

2.04

3.22

5.03

Ov 3.5

1.71

3.19

10.00

Un 3.5

1.63

4.93

5.45

Goal-Goal

1.80

3.21

7.52

No Goal

1.55

6.02

5.30

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.53

5.20

6.41

NG+Un 2.5

1.79

6.02

4.42


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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For Sittard vs Waalwijk at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between For Sittard and Waalwijk for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

For Sittard

2.33

2.17

3.2

Draw

3.51

3.92

-3.0

Waalwijk

2.93

3.52

-5.7

Over 2.5

1.57

1.87

-10.2

Under 2.5

2.45

2.15

5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at For Sittard, Under 2.5 (3.2 %, 5.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

For Sittard in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, For Sittard in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance at home.
For Sittard, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Utrecht

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Dec

Heracles

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Willem II

H

3

2

W

O

G

29 Nov

Vitesse

A

0

2

L

U

N

22 Nov

Feyenoord

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Nov

Zwolle

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Ajax

A

2

5

L

O

G

25 Oct

Groningen

H

1

3

L

O

G


Waalwijk in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance as a guest.
Waalwijk, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

PSV Eindhoven

H

1

4

L

O

G

12 Dec

Groningen

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

VVV Venlo

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Nov

Twente

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Heerenveen

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Sparta Rotterdam

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

AZ Alkmaar

A

0

3

L

O

N

25 Oct

Feyenoord

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, For Sittard and the red line for guest team, Waalwijk.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

For Sittard

23%

28%

27%

23%

Waalwijk

28%

41%

19%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) For Sittard to score 1.64 goals and Waalwijk to score 1.39 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.03 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) For Sittard to score 1.5 goals and Waalwijk to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the home team For Sittard to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

4.27

1

5.88

2-3

2.06

2

4.31

4+

3.53

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.62

Un 1.5

4.27

5

12.99

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

2.15

Gg

1.79

Ov 3.5

3.53

NoG

2.25

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.04

3.66

2.52

2-3 goals

1.96

4.30

3.89

4+ goals

2.07

3.58

4.22

Ov 1.5

2.00

4.01

4.01

Un 1.5

3.04

3.66

2.52

Ov 2.5

1.73

6.80

3.63

Un 2.5

3.07

2.63

3.40

Ov 3.5

2.07

3.58

4.22

Un 3.5

2.22

4.07

3.30

Goal-Goal

2.27

2.91

4.65

No Goal

2.06

6.95

2.70

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.81

5.63

3.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.32

6.95

2.58


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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FC Emmen vs Utrecht at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between FC Emmen and Utrecht for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

FC Emmen

4.58

2.70

15.2

Draw

4.13

3.61

3.5

Utrecht

1.68

2.84

-24.3

Over 2.5

1.54

1.83

-10.3

Under 2.5

2.47

2.21

4.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at FC Emmen, Draw, Under 2.5 (15.2 %, 3.5 %, 4.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

FC Emmen in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Emmen in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance at home.
FC Emmen, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Dec

Zwolle

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Den Haag

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Dec

Sparta Rotterdam

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Nov

Ajax

H

0

5

L

O

N

22 Nov

AZ Alkmaar

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Vitesse

A

1

3

L

O

G

01 Nov

Feyenoord

H

2

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

Heerenveen

A

0

4

L

O

N


Utrecht in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Utrecht in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance as a guest.
Utrecht, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

For Sittard

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

PSV Eindhoven

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Den Haag

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Nov

Feyenoord

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Zwolle

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Ajax

H

0

3

L

O

N

01 Nov

Heracles

A

1

4

L

O

G

24 Oct

Twente

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, FC Emmen and the red line for guest team, Utrecht.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

FC Emmen

23%

35%

22%

20%

Utrecht

18%

44%

22%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) FC Emmen to score 0.99 goals and Utrecht to score 2.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.07 goals in the game and the guest team Utrecht to win by 1.09 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) FC Emmen to score 1.39 goals and Utrecht to score 1.34 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.73 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

23.81

0-1

4.81

1

6.02

2-3

2.03

2

4.07

4+

3.32

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.26

4

5.21

Un 1.5

4.81

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.83

6+

32.26

Un 2.5

2.20

Gg

1.58

Ov 3.5

3.32

NoG

2.71

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.20

4.95

2.06

2-3 goals

2.86

3.13

3.02

4+ goals

2.23

3.81

3.46

Ov 1.5

2.58

3.36

3.17

Un 1.5

3.20

4.95

2.06

Ov 2.5

2.04

6.92

2.73

Un 2.5

4.37

2.28

3.01

Ov 3.5

2.23

3.81

3.46

Un 3.5

2.95

3.52

2.65

Goal-Goal

2.74

2.68

3.83

No Goal

2.62

8.79

1.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.06

6.01

2.88

NG+Un 2.5

2.86

8.79

1.97


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Twente vs Sparta Rotterdam at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Twente and Sparta Rotterdam for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Twente

2.03

1.97

1.5

Draw

3.65

4.05

-2.7

Sparta Rotterdam

3.45

4.07

-4.4

Over 2.5

1.65

1.90

-8.0

Under 2.5

2.26

2.11

3.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Twente, Under 2.5 (1.5 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Twente in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Twente in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance at home.
Twente, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

VVV Venlo

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Ajax

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Nov

Waalwijk

H

0

2

L

U

N

22 Nov

PSV Eindhoven

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Den Haag

A

4

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Zwolle

H

5

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Utrecht

A

1

2

L

O

G


Sparta Rotterdam in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sparta Rotterdam in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance as a guest.
Sparta Rotterdam, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Groningen

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Dec

Willem II

A

3

1

W

O

G

04 Dec

FC Emmen

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Nov

Den Haag

H

6

0

W

O

N

07 Nov

Waalwijk

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Heerenveen

H

1

4

L

O

G

25 Oct

Heracles

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Twente and the red line for guest team, Sparta Rotterdam.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Twente

22%

26%

28%

24%

Sparta Rotterdam

33%

39%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Twente to score 1.72 goals and Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.88 goals in the game and the home team Twente to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Twente to score 1.55 goals and Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Twente to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

4.12

1

5.85

2-3

2.04

2

4.33

4+

3.73

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.81

Un 1.5

4.12

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.90

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.11

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

3.73

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.86

3.38