# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** PSV Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo at 22 December 2020**** For Sittard vs Waalwijk at 22 December 2020**** FC Emmen vs Utrecht at 22 December 2020**** Twente vs Sparta Rotterdam at 22 December 2020**** Groningen vs Heracles at 23 December 2020**** Willem II vs Ajax at 23 December 2020**** Den Haag vs Zwolle at 23 December 2020**** AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse at 23 December 2020**** Feyenoord vs Heerenveen at 23 December 2020**

###
PSV Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **PSV Eindhoven** and **VVV Venlo** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **22 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

PSV Eindhoven |
1.15 |
1.64 |
-26.0 |

Draw |
8.28 |
4.41 |
10.6 |

VVV Venlo |
15.15 |
6.06 |
9.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.31 |
2.03 |
-27.1 |

Under 2.5 |
3.37 |
1.97 |
21.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, VVV Venlo, Under 2.5 (10.6 %, 9.9 %, 21.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**PSV Eindhoven** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **PSV Eindhoven** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at PSV Eindhoven’s performance** at home**.

PSV Eindhoven,** at home**, had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of PSV Eindhoven was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Waalwijk |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Utrecht |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Heerenveen |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Twente |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Willem II |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Den Haag |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**VVV Venlo** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **VVV Venlo** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance** as a guest**.

VVV Venlo,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Twente |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Feyenoord |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Waalwijk |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Zwolle |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Willem II |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Heracles |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
13 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **PSV Eindhoven** and the red line for guest team, **VVV Venlo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

PSV Eindhoven |
20% |
20% |
33% |
26% |

VVV Venlo |
47% |
32% |
17% |
4% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **PSV Eindhoven** to score **3.24 ** goals and **VVV Venlo** to score **0.44 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.68** goals in the game and the home team **PSV Eindhoven ** to win by **2.8** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **PSV Eindhoven** to score **1.66 ** goals and **VVV Venlo** to score **0.79 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **PSV Eindhoven ** to win by **0.87** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.42 |
0-1 |
3.94 |

1 |
6.33 |
2-3 |
1.90 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
3.69 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.94 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.97 |

Gg |
2.38 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
1.73 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.73 |
2.65 |
3.91 |

2-3 goals |
1.36 |
8.47 |
6.73 |

4+ goals |
1.71 |
3.19 |
10.00 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |
5.69 |
7.45 |

Un 1.5 |
2.73 |
2.65 |
3.91 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.37 |
7.12 |
7.67 |

Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
3.22 |
5.03 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.71 |
3.19 |
10.00 |

Un 3.5 |
1.63 |
4.93 |
5.45 |

Goal-Goal |
1.80 |
3.21 |
7.52 |

No Goal |
1.55 |
6.02 |
5.30 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.53 |
5.20 |
6.41 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.79 |
6.02 |
4.42 |

####
Go to Top

###
For Sittard vs Waalwijk at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **For Sittard** and **Waalwijk** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **22 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

For Sittard |
2.33 |
2.17 |
3.2 |

Draw |
3.51 |
3.92 |
-3.0 |

Waalwijk |
2.93 |
3.52 |
-5.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.87 |
-10.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.45 |
2.15 |
5.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **For Sittard, Under 2.5 (3.2 %, 5.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**For Sittard** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **For Sittard** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance** at home**.

For Sittard,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Dec |
Heracles |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Willem II |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Feyenoord |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Nov |
Zwolle |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Groningen |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Waalwijk** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Waalwijk** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance** as a guest**.

Waalwijk,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
VVV Venlo |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Twente |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **For Sittard** and the red line for guest team, **Waalwijk. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

For Sittard |
23% |
28% |
27% |
23% |

Waalwijk |
28% |
41% |
19% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **For Sittard** to score **1.64 ** goals and **Waalwijk** to score **1.39 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.03** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **For Sittard** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Waalwijk** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.66** goals in the game and the home team **For Sittard ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.62 |
0-1 |
4.27 |

1 |
5.88 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
3.53 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |

4 |
5.62 |
Un 1.5 |
4.27 |

5 |
12.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |

6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
2.15 |

Gg |
1.79 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.53 |

NoG |
2.25 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.04 |
3.66 |
2.52 |

2-3 goals |
1.96 |
4.30 |
3.89 |

4+ goals |
2.07 |
3.58 |
4.22 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.00 |
4.01 |
4.01 |

Un 1.5 |
3.04 |
3.66 |
2.52 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
6.80 |
3.63 |

Un 2.5 |
3.07 |
2.63 |
3.40 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.07 |
3.58 |
4.22 |

Un 3.5 |
2.22 |
4.07 |
3.30 |

Goal-Goal |
2.27 |
2.91 |
4.65 |

No Goal |
2.06 |
6.95 |
2.70 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |
5.63 |
3.71 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.32 |
6.95 |
2.58 |

####
Go to Top

###
FC Emmen vs Utrecht at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **FC Emmen** and **Utrecht** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **22 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

FC Emmen |
4.58 |
2.70 |
15.2 |

Draw |
4.13 |
3.61 |
3.5 |

Utrecht |
1.68 |
2.84 |
-24.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.54 |
1.83 |
-10.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.47 |
2.21 |
4.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **FC Emmen, Draw, Under 2.5 (15.2 %, 3.5 %, 4.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**FC Emmen** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Emmen** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance** at home**.

FC Emmen,** at home**, had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

18 Dec |
Zwolle |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Den Haag |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Dec |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

22 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

**Utrecht** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Utrecht** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance** as a guest**.

Utrecht,** as a guest**, had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Den Haag |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Nov |
Feyenoord |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Heracles |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Twente |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **FC Emmen** and the red line for guest team, **Utrecht. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

FC Emmen |
23% |
35% |
22% |
20% |

Utrecht |
18% |
44% |
22% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **FC Emmen** to score **0.99 ** goals and **Utrecht** to score **2.08 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.07** goals in the game and the guest team **Utrecht ** to win by **1.09** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **FC Emmen** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Utrecht** to score **1.34 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.73** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
23.81 |
0-1 |
4.81 |

1 |
6.02 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
3.32 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.26 |

4 |
5.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.81 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |

6+ |
32.26 |
Un 2.5 |
2.20 |

Gg |
1.58 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.32 |

NoG |
2.71 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.20 |
4.95 |
2.06 |

2-3 goals |
2.86 |
3.13 |
3.02 |

4+ goals |
2.23 |
3.81 |
3.46 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.58 |
3.36 |
3.17 |

Un 1.5 |
3.20 |
4.95 |
2.06 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
6.92 |
2.73 |

Un 2.5 |
4.37 |
2.28 |
3.01 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.23 |
3.81 |
3.46 |

Un 3.5 |
2.95 |
3.52 |
2.65 |

Goal-Goal |
2.74 |
2.68 |
3.83 |

No Goal |
2.62 |
8.79 |
1.98 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
6.01 |
2.88 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.86 |
8.79 |
1.97 |

####
Go to Top

###
Twente vs Sparta Rotterdam at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Twente** and **Sparta Rotterdam** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **22 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Twente |
2.03 |
1.97 |
1.5 |

Draw |
3.65 |
4.05 |
-2.7 |

Sparta Rotterdam |
3.45 |
4.07 |
-4.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.90 |
-8.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.26 |
2.11 |
3.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Twente, Under 2.5 (1.5 %, 3.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Twente** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Twente** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance** at home**.

Twente,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
VVV Venlo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Waalwijk |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Den Haag |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Zwolle |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Sparta Rotterdam** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sparta Rotterdam** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance** as a guest**.

Sparta Rotterdam,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Groningen |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Dec |
FC Emmen |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Den Haag |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

07 Nov |
Waalwijk |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Heracles |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Twente** and the red line for guest team, **Sparta Rotterdam. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Twente |
22% |
26% |
28% |
24% |

Sparta Rotterdam |
33% |
39% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Twente** to score **1.72 ** goals and **Sparta Rotterdam** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.88** goals in the game and the home team **Twente ** to win by **0.56** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Twente** to score **1.55 ** goals and **Sparta Rotterdam** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and the home team **Twente ** to win by **0.5** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
4.12 |

1 |
5.85 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.33 |
4+ |
3.73 |

3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.81 |
Un 1.5 |
4.12 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.11 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.73 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.86 |
3.38 |