2020 12 22 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Valladolid vs Barcelona at 22 December 2020
Valencia vs Sevilla at 22 December 2020
Sociedad vs Ath Madrid at 22 December 2020
Huesca vs Levante at 22 December 2020
Elche vs Osasuna at 22 December 2020
Villarreal vs Ath Bilbao at 22 December 2020
Betis vs Cadiz at 23 December 2020
Real Madrid vs Granada at 23 December 2020
Alaves vs Eibar at 23 December 2020
Getafe vs Celta at 23 December 2020


Valladolid vs Barcelona at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Valladolid and Barcelona for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Valladolid

7.53

2.51

26.6

Draw

5.09

3.82

6.5

Barcelona

1.41

2.95

-37.0

Over 2.5

1.54

1.91

-12.6

Under 2.5

2.48

2.10

7.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Valladolid, Draw, Under 2.5 (26.6 %, 6.5 %, 7.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Valladolid in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance at home.
Valladolid, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Sevilla

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Dec

Osasuna

H

3

2

W

O

G

05 Dec

Ath Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Nov

Levante

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Granada

A

3

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Ath Bilbao

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Villarreal

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Oct

Alaves

H

0

2

L

U

N


Barcelona in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barcelona in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance as a guest.
Barcelona, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Valencia

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Dec

Sociedad

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Levante

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Cadiz

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Osasuna

H

4

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Ath Madrid

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Betis

H

5

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Alaves

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valladolid and the red line for guest team, Barcelona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Valladolid

25%

30%

27%

17%

Barcelona

28%

35%

22%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valladolid to score 0.68 goals and Barcelona to score 2.39 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.07 goals in the game and the guest team Barcelona to win by 1.71 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.37 goals and Barcelona to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.17

1

5.88

2-3

2.07

2

4.26

4+

3.62

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.95

Un 1.5

4.17

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

1.91

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

2.11

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

3.62

NoG

2.18

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.89

3.43

2.76

2-3 goals

2.23

4.64

2.98

4+ goals

2.79

3.14

3.10

Ov 1.5

2.40

3.95

3.02

Un 1.5

2.89

3.43

2.76

Ov 2.5

2.17

5.95

2.69

Un 2.5

3.01

2.73

3.32

Ov 3.5

2.79

3.14

3.10

Un 3.5

2.41

4.16

2.90

Goal-Goal

2.80

2.82

3.47

No Goal

2.22

6.54

2.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.26

4.97

2.80

NG+Un 2.5

2.35

6.54

2.59


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Valencia vs Sevilla at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Sevilla for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Valencia

3.55

2.70

8.9

Draw

3.41

3.91

-3.8

Sevilla

2.14

2.67

-9.3

Over 2.5

2.16

1.82

8.6

Under 2.5

1.72

2.22

-13.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Valencia, Over 2.5 (8.9 %, 8.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Valencia in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valencia in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valencia’s performance at home.
Valencia, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valencia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Barcelona

A

2

2

D

O

G

12 Dec

Ath Bilbao

H

2

2

D

O

G

07 Dec

Eibar

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Ath Madrid

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Nov

Alaves

A

2

2

D

O

G

08 Nov

Real Madrid

H

4

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Getafe

H

2

2

D

O

G

23 Oct

Elche

A

1

2

L

O

G


Sevilla in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance as a guest.
Sevilla, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Valladolid

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Real Madrid

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Huesca

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Celta

H

4

2

W

O

G

07 Nov

Osasuna

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Ath Bilbao

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Eibar

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valencia and the red line for guest team, Sevilla.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Valencia

27%

27%

31%

15%

Sevilla

26%

30%

24%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valencia to score 0.95 goals and Sevilla to score 1.37 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the guest team Sevilla to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valencia to score 1.35 goals and Sevilla to score 1.36 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

4.48

1

6.58

2-3

2.09

2

4.41

4+

3.33

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.81

Un 1.5

4.48

5

10.20

Ov 2.5

1.81

6+

33.33

Un 2.5

2.22

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.33

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.14

3.14

2.75

2-3 goals

2.20

5.90

2.66

4+ goals

3.61

2.88

2.65

Ov 1.5

2.59

4.21

2.66

Un 1.5

3.14

3.14

2.75

Ov 2.5

2.53

5.30

2.41

Un 2.5

2.94

2.96

3.10

Ov 3.5

3.61

2.88

2.65

Un 3.5

2.43

4.61

2.69

Goal-Goal

3.05

2.91

3.05

No Goal

2.38

6.51

2.35

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.59

4.40

2.59

NG+Un 2.5

2.41

6.51

2.54


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Sociedad vs Ath Madrid at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sociedad and Ath Madrid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sociedad

3.43

1.96

21.9

Draw

3.15

3.94

-6.4

Ath Madrid

2.32

4.26

-19.6

Over 2.5

2.39

1.87

11.6

Under 2.5

1.62

2.15

-15.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sociedad, Over 2.5 (21.9 %, 11.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sociedad in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sociedad in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sociedad’s performance at home.
Sociedad, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sociedad was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Levante

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Dec

Barcelona

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Dec

Eibar

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Alaves

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Villarreal

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Cadiz

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Granada

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Celta

A

4

1

W

O

G


Ath Madrid in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Madrid in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Madrid’s performance as a guest.
Ath Madrid, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Elche

H

3

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Real Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Valladolid

H

2

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Valencia

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Barcelona

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Cadiz

H

4

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Osasuna

A

3

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Betis

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sociedad and the red line for guest team, Ath Madrid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sociedad

19%

29%

26%

26%

Ath Madrid

29%

45%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sociedad to score 0.94 goals and Ath Madrid to score 1.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sociedad to score 1.58 goals and Ath Madrid to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the home team Sociedad to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.86

0-1

4.39

1

5.81

2-3

2.02

2

4.18

4+

3.62

3

3.89

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.38

Un 1.5

4.39

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.14

Gg

1.75

Ov 3.5

3.62

NoG

2.33

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

4.07

2.65

2-3 goals

1.87

3.79

4.96

4+ goals

1.73

4.12

5.63

Ov 1.5

1.82

3.90

5.18

Un 1.5

2.65

4.07

2.65

Ov 2.5

1.52

7.96

4.59

Un 2.5

2.90

2.50

3.92

Ov 3.5

1.73

4.12

5.63

Un 3.5

2.06

3.87

3.89

Goal-Goal

2.08

2.88

5.77

No Goal

1.81

7.66

3.15

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.61

6.57

4.44

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

7.66

2.82


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Huesca vs Levante at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Huesca and Levante for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Huesca

2.67

2.17

8.6

Draw

3.39

3.79

-3.1

Levante

2.69

3.61

-9.5

Over 2.5

1.92

2.00

-2.1

Under 2.5

1.91

2.00

-2.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Huesca (8.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Huesca in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huesca in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance at home.
Huesca, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Dec

Ath Bilbao

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Alaves

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Granada

A

3

3

D

O

G

28 Nov

Sevilla

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Nov

Osasuna

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Eibar

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Real Madrid

A

1

4

L

O

G

25 Oct

Sociedad

A

1

4

L

O

G


Levante in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance as a guest.
Levante, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Sociedad

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Barcelona

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Getafe

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Nov

Valladolid

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Elche

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Alaves

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Granada

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Oct

Celta

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Huesca and the red line for guest team, Levante.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Huesca

22%

32%

24%

21%

Levante

31%

38%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.27 goals and Levante to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.44 goals and Levante to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Huesca to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.91

1

5.38

2-3

2.04

2

4.12

4+

3.92

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.10

Un 1.5

3.91

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.51