# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Valladolid vs Barcelona at 22 December 2020**** Valencia vs Sevilla at 22 December 2020**** Sociedad vs Ath Madrid at 22 December 2020**** Huesca vs Levante at 22 December 2020**** Elche vs Osasuna at 22 December 2020**** Villarreal vs Ath Bilbao at 22 December 2020**** Betis vs Cadiz at 23 December 2020**** Real Madrid vs Granada at 23 December 2020**** Alaves vs Eibar at 23 December 2020**** Getafe vs Celta at 23 December 2020**

###
Valladolid vs Barcelona at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Valladolid** and **Barcelona** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **22 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Valladolid |
7.53 |
2.51 |
26.6 |

Draw |
5.09 |
3.82 |
6.5 |

Barcelona |
1.41 |
2.95 |
-37.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.54 |
1.91 |
-12.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.48 |
2.10 |
7.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Valladolid, Draw, Under 2.5 (26.6 %, 6.5 %, 7.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Valladolid** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Valladolid** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance** at home**.

Valladolid,** at home**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 6 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Sevilla |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Dec |
Osasuna |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Ath Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Nov |
Levante |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Granada |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Nov |
Villarreal |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Alaves |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Barcelona** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barcelona** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance** as a guest**.

Barcelona,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Valencia |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Sociedad |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Levante |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Cadiz |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Osasuna |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Ath Madrid |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Betis |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Alaves |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Valladolid** and the red line for guest team, **Barcelona. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Valladolid |
25% |
30% |
27% |
17% |

Barcelona |
28% |
35% |
22% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Valladolid** to score **0.68 ** goals and **Barcelona** to score **2.39 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.07** goals in the game and the guest team **Barcelona ** to win by **1.71** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Valladolid** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Barcelona** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.63** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.17 |

1 |
5.88 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
3.62 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.95 |
Un 1.5 |
4.17 |

5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |

6+ |
37.04 |
Un 2.5 |
2.11 |

Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.62 |

NoG |
2.18 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.89 |
3.43 |
2.76 |

2-3 goals |
2.23 |
4.64 |
2.98 |

4+ goals |
2.79 |
3.14 |
3.10 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.40 |
3.95 |
3.02 |

Un 1.5 |
2.89 |
3.43 |
2.76 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
5.95 |
2.69 |

Un 2.5 |
3.01 |
2.73 |
3.32 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.79 |
3.14 |
3.10 |

Un 3.5 |
2.41 |
4.16 |
2.90 |

Goal-Goal |
2.80 |
2.82 |
3.47 |

No Goal |
2.22 |
6.54 |
2.52 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
4.97 |
2.80 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
6.54 |
2.59 |

####
Go to Top

###
Valencia vs Sevilla at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Valencia** and **Sevilla** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **22 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Valencia |
3.55 |
2.70 |
8.9 |

Draw |
3.41 |
3.91 |
-3.8 |

Sevilla |
2.14 |
2.67 |
-9.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.16 |
1.82 |
8.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
2.22 |
-13.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Valencia, Over 2.5 (8.9 %, 8.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Valencia** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Valencia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Valencia** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Valencia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valencia’s performance** at home**.

Valencia,** at home**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Valencia scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Valencia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Barcelona |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

07 Dec |
Eibar |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Ath Madrid |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Alaves |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Real Madrid |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Getafe |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Oct |
Elche |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Sevilla** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sevilla** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance** as a guest**.

Sevilla,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Real Madrid |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Huesca |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Celta |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Osasuna |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Eibar |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Valencia** and the red line for guest team, **Sevilla. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Valencia |
27% |
27% |
31% |
15% |

Sevilla |
26% |
30% |
24% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Valencia** to score **0.95 ** goals and **Sevilla** to score **1.37 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and the guest team **Sevilla ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Valencia** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Sevilla** to score **1.36 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.01** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
4.48 |

1 |
6.58 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.41 |
4+ |
3.33 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
5.81 |
Un 1.5 |
4.48 |

5 |
10.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |

6+ |
33.33 |
Un 2.5 |
2.22 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.33 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.14 |
3.14 |
2.75 |

2-3 goals |
2.20 |
5.90 |
2.66 |

4+ goals |
3.61 |
2.88 |
2.65 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.59 |
4.21 |
2.66 |

Un 1.5 |
3.14 |
3.14 |
2.75 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.53 |
5.30 |
2.41 |

Un 2.5 |
2.94 |
2.96 |
3.10 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.61 |
2.88 |
2.65 |

Un 3.5 |
2.43 |
4.61 |
2.69 |

Goal-Goal |
3.05 |
2.91 |
3.05 |

No Goal |
2.38 |
6.51 |
2.35 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.59 |
4.40 |
2.59 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.41 |
6.51 |
2.54 |

####
Go to Top

###
Sociedad vs Ath Madrid at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sociedad** and **Ath Madrid** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **22 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sociedad |
3.43 |
1.96 |
21.9 |

Draw |
3.15 |
3.94 |
-6.4 |

Ath Madrid |
2.32 |
4.26 |
-19.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.39 |
1.87 |
11.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
2.15 |
-15.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sociedad, Over 2.5 (21.9 %, 11.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sociedad** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sociedad** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sociedad’s performance** at home**.

Sociedad,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sociedad was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Levante |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Barcelona |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Eibar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
Alaves |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Villarreal |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Cadiz |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Granada |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Celta |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Ath Madrid** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ath Madrid** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Madrid’s performance** as a guest**.

Ath Madrid,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ath Madrid was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Elche |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Real Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Valladolid |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Valencia |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Barcelona |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Cadiz |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Osasuna |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Betis |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sociedad** and the red line for guest team, **Ath Madrid. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sociedad |
19% |
29% |
26% |
26% |

Ath Madrid |
29% |
45% |
17% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sociedad** to score **0.94 ** goals and **Ath Madrid** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.18** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.29** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sociedad** to score **1.58 ** goals and **Ath Madrid** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.64** goals in the game and the home team **Sociedad ** to win by **0.52** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.86 |
0-1 |
4.39 |

1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
3.62 |

3 |
3.89 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |

4 |
5.38 |
Un 1.5 |
4.39 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.14 |

Gg |
1.75 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.62 |

NoG |
2.33 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.65 |
4.07 |
2.65 |

2-3 goals |
1.87 |
3.79 |
4.96 |

4+ goals |
1.73 |
4.12 |
5.63 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.82 |
3.90 |
5.18 |

Un 1.5 |
2.65 |
4.07 |
2.65 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.52 |
7.96 |
4.59 |

Un 2.5 |
2.90 |
2.50 |
3.92 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.73 |
4.12 |
5.63 |

Un 3.5 |
2.06 |
3.87 |
3.89 |

Goal-Goal |
2.08 |
2.88 |
5.77 |

No Goal |
1.81 |
7.66 |
3.15 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.61 |
6.57 |
4.44 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
7.66 |
2.82 |

####
Go to Top

###
Huesca vs Levante at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Huesca** and **Levante** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **22 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Huesca |
2.67 |
2.17 |
8.6 |

Draw |
3.39 |
3.79 |
-3.1 |

Levante |
2.69 |
3.61 |
-9.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.92 |
2.00 |
-2.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.91 |
2.00 |
-2.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Huesca (8.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Huesca** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Huesca** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance** at home**.

Huesca,** at home**, had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

18 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Alaves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Granada |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Sevilla |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Nov |
Osasuna |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Eibar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Real Madrid |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Sociedad |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**Levante** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Levante** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance** as a guest**.

Levante,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Sociedad |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Barcelona |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Getafe |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Nov |
Valladolid |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Elche |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Alaves |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Nov |
Granada |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Oct |
Celta |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Huesca** and the red line for guest team, **Levante. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Huesca |
22% |
32% |
24% |
21% |

Levante |
31% |
38% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Huesca** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Levante** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.01** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Huesca** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Levante** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the home team **Huesca ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.91 |

1 |
5.38 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.92 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
3.91 |

5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |

NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.51 |