2020 12 22 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Grimsby vs Bradford at 22 December 2020


Grimsby vs Bradford at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Grimsby and Bradford for League Two (England), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Grimsby

3.06

2.53

6.8

Draw

3.34

3.62

-2.3

Bradford

2.29

3.04

-10.8

Over 2.5

2.03

2.29

-5.6

Under 2.5

1.79

1.78

0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Grimsby, Under 2.5 (6.8 %, 0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Grimsby in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Grimsby in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance at home.
Grimsby, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Scunthorpe

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Southend

A

1

3

L

O

G

12 Dec

Mansfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Dec

Newport County

H

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Colchester

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Dec

Exeter

H

1

4

L

O

G

24 Nov

Crawley Town

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Tranmere

A

0

5

L

O

N


Bradford in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bradford in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance as a guest.
Bradford, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Cambridge

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Crawley Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Oldham

A

1

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Carlisle

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

Cheltenham

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Leyton Orient

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Salford

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Nov

Exeter

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Grimsby and the red line for guest team, Bradford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Grimsby

30%

29%

28%

12%

Bradford

32%

37%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Grimsby to score 1.08 goals and Bradford to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Grimsby to score 1.22 goals and Bradford to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.31

0-1

3.30

1

4.85

2-3

2.02

2

3.86

4+

4.93

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.41

Un 1.5

3.30

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.28

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.78

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

4.93

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.22

3.12

2.71

2-3 goals

2.16

4.57

3.15

4+ goals

2.82

2.90

3.33

Ov 1.5

2.32

3.92

3.20

Un 1.5

3.22

3.12

2.71

Ov 2.5

2.06

6.26

2.83

Un 2.5

3.09

2.74

3.21

Ov 3.5

2.82

2.90

3.33

Un 3.5

2.47

3.89

2.96

Goal-Goal

2.73

2.66

3.88

No Goal

2.37

5.43

2.53

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.11

5.21

2.99

NG+Un 2.5

2.49

5.43

2.59


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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