2020 12 22 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Nimes vs Dijon at 23 December 2020
Paris SG vs Strasbourg at 23 December 2020
Nice vs Lorient at 23 December 2020
Montpellier vs Lille at 23 December 2020
Lyon vs Nantes at 23 December 2020
Lens vs Brest at 23 December 2020
Angers vs Marseille at 23 December 2020
Bordeaux vs Reims at 23 December 2020
Monaco vs St Etienne at 23 December 2020
Rennes vs Metz at 23 December 2020


Nimes vs Dijon at 23 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Nimes and Dijon for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 23 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nimes

2.59

2.21

6.6

Draw

3.46

3.64

-1.4

Dijon

2.70

3.66

-9.7

Over 2.5

1.93

2.44

-10.8

Under 2.5

1.94

1.69

7.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nimes, Under 2.5 (6.6 %, 7.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nimes in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nimes in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nimes’s performance at home.
Nimes, at home, had one win, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nimes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

St Etienne

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Dec

Nice

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Lorient

A

0

3

L

O

N

04 Dec

Marseille

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Monaco

A

0

3

L

O

N

22 Nov

Reims

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Angers

H

1

5

L

O

G

01 Nov

Metz

H

0

1

L

U

N


Dijon in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dijon in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dijon’s performance as a guest.
Dijon, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dijon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Monaco

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Dec

Lille

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Nantes

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

St Etienne

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Nice

A

3

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Lens

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Metz

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Lorient

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nimes and the red line for guest team, Dijon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nimes

26%

33%

28%

12%

Dijon

39%

36%

15%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nimes to score 1.29 goals and Dijon to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nimes to score 1.27 goals and Dijon to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

3.11

1

4.52

2-3

2.02

2

3.73

4+

5.46

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

8.20

Un 1.5

3.11

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.43

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.20

Ov 3.5

5.46

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.54

3.19

3.43

2-3 goals

1.90

4.17

4.28

4+ goals

2.86

3.27

2.90

Ov 1.5

2.09

3.88

3.79

Un 1.5

2.54

3.19

3.43

Ov 2.5

1.91

7.34

2.94

Un 2.5

2.49

2.68

4.44

Ov 3.5

2.86

3.27

2.90

Un 3.5

2.11

3.72

3.90

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.60

4.03

No Goal

1.92

5.41

3.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.01

6.00

2.97

NG+Un 2.5

1.99

5.41

3.54


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Paris SG vs Strasbourg at 23 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Paris SG and Strasbourg for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 23 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Paris SG

1.31

1.80

-20.8

Draw

5.85

4.02

7.8

Strasbourg

9.33

5.10

8.9

Over 2.5

1.44

2.31

-26.2

Under 2.5

2.75

1.76

20.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Strasbourg, Under 2.5 (7.8 %, 8.9 %, 20.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Paris SG in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Paris SG in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance at home.
Paris SG, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Lille

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Dec

Lorient

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Lyon

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Montpellier

A

3

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Bordeaux

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Nov

Monaco

A

2

3

L

O

G

07 Nov

Rennes

H

3

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Nantes

A

3

0

W

O

N


Strasbourg in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Strasbourg in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Strasbourg’s performance as a guest.
Strasbourg, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Strasbourg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Bordeaux

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Dec

Angers

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Metz

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Dec

Nantes

A

4

0

W

O

N

27 Nov

Rennes

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Montpellier

A

3

4

L

O

G

06 Nov

Marseille

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Nov

Reims

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Paris SG and the red line for guest team, Strasbourg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Paris SG

21%

29%

30%

20%

Strasbourg

48%

30%

15%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Paris SG to score 2.68 goals and Strasbourg to score 0.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.29 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 2.07 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Paris SG to score 1.48 goals and Strasbourg to score 0.81 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.80

0-1

3.28

1

4.93

2-3

1.97

2

3.80

4+

5.32

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

8.00

Un 1.5

3.28

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.31

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.43

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.70

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.21

2.99

4.69

2-3 goals

1.55

5.76

5.57

4+ goals

2.11

3.24

4.59

Ov 1.5

1.67

4.76

5.27

Un 1.5

2.21

2.99

4.69

Ov 2.5

1.58

7.45

4.32

Un 2.5

2.02

2.99

5.86

Ov 3.5

2.11

3.24

4.59

Un 3.5

1.74

4.27

5.21

Goal-Goal

2.28

2.82

4.85

No Goal

1.57

5.76

5.25

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.79

5.59

3.81

NG+Un 2.5

1.71

5.76

4.95


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Nice vs Lorient at 23 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Nice and Lorient for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 23 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nice

1.91

1.98

-1.9

Draw

3.62

3.89

-1.9

Lorient

4.08

4.17

-0.5

Over 2.5

1.98

2.12

-3.3

Under 2.5

1.86

1.89

-0.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nice in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nice in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance at home.
Nice, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Lyon

H

1

4

L

O

G

16 Dec

Nimes

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Rennes

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Reims

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Dijon

H

1

3

L

O

G

08 Nov

Monaco

H

1

2

L

O

G

01 Nov

Angers

A

3

0

W

O

N

25 Oct

Lille

H

1

1

D

U

G


Lorient in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Lorient in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lorient’s performance as a guest.
Lorient, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lorient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Rennes

H

0

3

L

O

N

16 Dec

Paris SG

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Nimes

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Dec

Angers

A

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Montpellier

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Nov

Lille

A

0

4

L

O

N

08 Nov

Nantes

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

Dijon

A

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nice and the red line for guest team, Lorient.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nice

23%

26%

34%

17%

Lorient

37%

36%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nice to score 1.57 goals and Lorient to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Nice to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nice to score 1.45 goals and Lorient to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Nice to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.79

1

5.59

2-3

1.93

2

3.79

4+

4.61

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.79

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

2.06

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.75

3.11

3.18

2-3 goals

1.65

5.45

4.71

4+ goals

2.31

2.82

4.72

Ov 1.5

1.81

4.27

4.71

Un 1.5

2.75

3.11

3.18

Ov 2.5

1.68

6.12

4.17

Un 2.5

2.38

2.93

4.19

Ov 3.5

2.31

2.82

4.72

Un 3.5

1.91

4.34

4.05

Goal-Goal

2.22

2.82

5.11

No Goal

1.80

6.05

3.57

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.79

5.06

4.11

NG+Un 2.5

1.95

6.05

3.44


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Montpellier vs Lille at 23 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Montpellier and Lille for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 23 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Montpellier

3.39

2.62

8.7

Draw

3.37

3.64

-2.2

Lille

2.21

2.92

-11.0

Over 2.5

2.17

2.50

-6.1

Under 2.5

1.71

1.67

1.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Montpellier, Under 2.5 (8.7 %, 1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Montpellier in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Montpellier in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance at home.
Montpellier, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Brest

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Dec

Metz

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Lens

A

3

2

W

O

G

05 Dec

Paris SG

H

1

3

L

O

G

29 Nov

Lorient

A

1

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Strasbourg

H

4

3

W

O

G

07 Nov

Bordeaux

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

St Etienne

A

1

0

W

U

N


Lille in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lille in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lille’s performance as a guest.
Lille, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Paris SG

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Dec

Dijon

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Bordeaux

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Monaco

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

St Etienne

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Lorient

H

4

0

W

O

N

08 Nov

Brest

A

2

3

L

O

G

01 Nov

Lyon

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Montpellier and the red line for guest team, Lille.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Montpellier

33%

32%

26%

9%

Lille

38%

36%

5%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Montpellier to score 0.98 goals and Lille to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the guest team Lille to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Montpellier to score 1.1 goals and Lille to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.94

0-1

2.71

1

4.12

2-3

2.26

2

4.33

4+

5.35

3

4.72

Ov 1.5

1.59

4

8.93

Un 1.5

2.71

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.51

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.67

Gg

2.42

Ov 3.5

5.35

NoG

1.71

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.02

2.93

3.05