# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Nimes vs Dijon at 23 December 2020**** Paris SG vs Strasbourg at 23 December 2020**** Nice vs Lorient at 23 December 2020**** Montpellier vs Lille at 23 December 2020**** Lyon vs Nantes at 23 December 2020**** Lens vs Brest at 23 December 2020**** Angers vs Marseille at 23 December 2020**** Bordeaux vs Reims at 23 December 2020**** Monaco vs St Etienne at 23 December 2020**** Rennes vs Metz at 23 December 2020**

###
Nimes vs Dijon at 23 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Nimes** and **Dijon** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **23 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Nimes |
2.59 |
2.21 |
6.6 |

Draw |
3.46 |
3.64 |
-1.4 |

Dijon |
2.70 |
3.66 |
-9.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.93 |
2.44 |
-10.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
1.69 |
7.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Nimes, Under 2.5 (6.6 %, 7.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Nimes** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Nimes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nimes** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Nimes scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nimes’s performance** at home**.

Nimes,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Nimes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nimes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
St Etienne |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Nice |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Lorient |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Dec |
Marseille |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Monaco |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

22 Nov |
Reims |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Angers |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Metz |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Dijon** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Dijon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Dijon** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Dijon scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dijon’s performance** as a guest**.

Dijon,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Dijon scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dijon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Monaco |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Lille |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Nantes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
St Etienne |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Nice |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Lens |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Metz |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Nov |
Lorient |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Nimes** and the red line for guest team, **Dijon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Nimes |
26% |
33% |
28% |
12% |

Dijon |
39% |
36% |
15% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Nimes** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Dijon** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Nimes** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Dijon** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.90 |
0-1 |
3.11 |

1 |
4.52 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.46 |

3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
8.20 |
Un 1.5 |
3.11 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.69 |

Gg |
2.20 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.46 |

NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.54 |
3.19 |
3.43 |

2-3 goals |
1.90 |
4.17 |
4.28 |

4+ goals |
2.86 |
3.27 |
2.90 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.09 |
3.88 |
3.79 |

Un 1.5 |
2.54 |
3.19 |
3.43 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
7.34 |
2.94 |

Un 2.5 |
2.49 |
2.68 |
4.44 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.86 |
3.27 |
2.90 |

Un 3.5 |
2.11 |
3.72 |
3.90 |

Goal-Goal |
2.72 |
2.60 |
4.03 |

No Goal |
1.92 |
5.41 |
3.41 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
6.00 |
2.97 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.99 |
5.41 |
3.54 |

####
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###
Paris SG vs Strasbourg at 23 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Paris SG** and **Strasbourg** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **23 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Paris SG |
1.31 |
1.80 |
-20.8 |

Draw |
5.85 |
4.02 |
7.8 |

Strasbourg |
9.33 |
5.10 |
8.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.44 |
2.31 |
-26.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.75 |
1.76 |
20.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Strasbourg, Under 2.5 (7.8 %, 8.9 %, 20.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Paris SG** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Paris SG** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance** at home**.

Paris SG,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Lille |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Lorient |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Lyon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Montpellier |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Bordeaux |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Nov |
Monaco |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Rennes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Nantes |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Strasbourg** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Strasbourg** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Strasbourg’s performance** as a guest**.

Strasbourg,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Strasbourg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Bordeaux |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Angers |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Metz |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Nantes |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Nov |
Rennes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Montpellier |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Nov |
Marseille |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Reims |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Paris SG** and the red line for guest team, **Strasbourg. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Paris SG |
21% |
29% |
30% |
20% |

Strasbourg |
48% |
30% |
15% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Paris SG** to score **2.68 ** goals and **Strasbourg** to score **0.61 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.29** goals in the game and the home team **Paris SG ** to win by **2.07** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Paris SG** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Strasbourg** to score **0.81 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and the home team **Paris SG ** to win by **0.67** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.80 |
0-1 |
3.28 |

1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
5.32 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
8.00 |
Un 1.5 |
3.28 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |

Gg |
2.43 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.32 |

NoG |
1.70 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.21 |
2.99 |
4.69 |

2-3 goals |
1.55 |
5.76 |
5.57 |

4+ goals |
2.11 |
3.24 |
4.59 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.67 |
4.76 |
5.27 |

Un 1.5 |
2.21 |
2.99 |
4.69 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |
7.45 |
4.32 |

Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.99 |
5.86 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.11 |
3.24 |
4.59 |

Un 3.5 |
1.74 |
4.27 |
5.21 |

Goal-Goal |
2.28 |
2.82 |
4.85 |

No Goal |
1.57 |
5.76 |
5.25 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |
5.59 |
3.81 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.71 |
5.76 |
4.95 |

####
Go to Top

###
Nice vs Lorient at 23 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Nice** and **Lorient** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **23 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Nice |
1.91 |
1.98 |
-1.9 |

Draw |
3.62 |
3.89 |
-1.9 |

Lorient |
4.08 |
4.17 |
-0.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.12 |
-3.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.89 |
-0.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Nice** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nice** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance** at home**.

Nice,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 6 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Lyon |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Nimes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Rennes |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Reims |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Dijon |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Monaco |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Angers |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Lille |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Lorient** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lorient scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Lorient** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lorient scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Lorient’s performance** as a guest**.

Lorient,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lorient scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lorient was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Rennes |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Dec |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Nimes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Angers |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Montpellier |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Lille |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

08 Nov |
Nantes |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Dijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Nice** and the red line for guest team, **Lorient. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Nice |
23% |
26% |
34% |
17% |

Lorient |
37% |
36% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Nice** to score **1.57 ** goals and **Lorient** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Nice ** to win by **0.66** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Nice** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Lorient** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Nice ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.79 |

1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
3.79 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.79 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
2.06 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.75 |
3.11 |
3.18 |

2-3 goals |
1.65 |
5.45 |
4.71 |

4+ goals |
2.31 |
2.82 |
4.72 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.81 |
4.27 |
4.71 |

Un 1.5 |
2.75 |
3.11 |
3.18 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
6.12 |
4.17 |

Un 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.93 |
4.19 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.31 |
2.82 |
4.72 |

Un 3.5 |
1.91 |
4.34 |
4.05 |

Goal-Goal |
2.22 |
2.82 |
5.11 |

No Goal |
1.80 |
6.05 |
3.57 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |
5.06 |
4.11 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.95 |
6.05 |
3.44 |

####
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###
Montpellier vs Lille at 23 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Montpellier** and **Lille** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **23 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Montpellier |
3.39 |
2.62 |
8.7 |

Draw |
3.37 |
3.64 |
-2.2 |

Lille |
2.21 |
2.92 |
-11.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.50 |
-6.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.67 |
1.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Montpellier, Under 2.5 (8.7 %, 1.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Montpellier** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Montpellier** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance** at home**.

Montpellier,** at home**, had 4 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Brest |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Metz |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Lens |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Paris SG |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Lorient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Strasbourg |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Bordeaux |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
St Etienne |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Lille** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lille scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lille** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lille scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lille’s performance** as a guest**.

Lille,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Lille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Paris SG |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Dijon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Bordeaux |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Monaco |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
St Etienne |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Lorient |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Nov |
Brest |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Lyon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Montpellier** and the red line for guest team, **Lille. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Montpellier |
33% |
32% |
26% |
9% |

Lille |
38% |
36% |
5% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Montpellier** to score **0.98 ** goals and **Lille** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and the guest team **Lille ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Montpellier** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Lille** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.19** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.01** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.94 |
0-1 |
2.71 |

1 |
4.12 |
2-3 |
2.26 |

2 |
4.33 |
4+ |
5.35 |

3 |
4.72 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.59 |

4 |
8.93 |
Un 1.5 |
2.71 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.51 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.67 |

Gg |
2.42 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.35 |

NoG |
1.71 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.02 |
2.93 |
3.05 |