2020 12 22 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sp Braga vs Rio Ave at 22 December 2020


Sp Braga vs Rio Ave at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sp Braga and Rio Ave for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sp Braga

1.56

1.70

-5.3

Draw

3.94

4.20

-1.6

Rio Ave

5.82

5.81

0.0

Over 2.5

1.92

2.07

-3.8

Under 2.5

1.90

1.94

-1.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sp Braga in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Braga in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Braga’s performance at home.
Sp Braga, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Braga was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Belenenses

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Farense

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Benfica

A

3

2

W

O

G

02 Nov

Famalicao

H

1

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Guimaraes

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Nacional

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Tondela

A

4

0

W

O

N

25 Sep

Santa Clara

H

0

1

L

U

N


Rio Ave in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Rio Ave in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance as a guest.
Rio Ave, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Dec

Boavista

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Gil Vicente

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Nov

Belenenses

A

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Moreirense

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Farense

A

1

0

W

U

N

18 Oct

Benfica

H

0

3

L

O

N

04 Oct

Famalicao

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Sep

Guimaraes

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sp Braga and the red line for guest team, Rio Ave.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sp Braga

17%

31%

27%

26%

Rio Ave

43%

38%

12%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Braga to score 1.82 goals and Rio Ave to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Sp Braga to win by 1.11 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Braga to score 1.62 goals and Rio Ave to score 0.84 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Sp Braga to win by 0.78 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.79

1

5.18

2-3

1.95

2

3.98

4+

4.48

3

3.82

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.79

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

4.48

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.03

3.72

4.19

2-3 goals

1.57

4.38

7.43

4+ goals

1.69

4.37

5.58

Ov 1.5

1.60

4.38

6.75

Un 1.5

2.03

3.72

4.19

Ov 2.5

1.41

9.51

5.45

Un 2.5

2.11

2.74

6.20

Ov 3.5

1.69

4.37

5.58

Un 3.5

1.70

4.13

5.89

Goal-Goal

2.05

2.85

6.22

No Goal

1.47

7.34

5.48

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.55

7.10

4.70

NG+Un 2.5

1.63

7.34

4.80


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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