2020 12 22 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Crotone vs Parma at 22 December 2020
Juventus vs Fiorentina at 22 December 2020
Udinese vs Benevento at 23 December 2020
Spezia vs Genoa at 23 December 2020
Sampdoria vs Sassuolo at 23 December 2020
Roma vs Cagliari at 23 December 2020
Napoli vs Torino at 23 December 2020
Bologna vs Atalanta at 23 December 2020
Verona vs Inter at 23 December 2020
Milan vs Lazio at 23 December 2020


Crotone vs Parma at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Crotone and Parma for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crotone

2.71

2.60

1.6

Draw

3.37

3.82

-3.5

Parma

2.65

2.82

-2.3

Over 2.5

1.99

1.92

1.8

Under 2.5

1.85

2.09

-6.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crotone, Over 2.5 (1.6 %, 1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crotone in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crotone in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance at home.
Crotone, at home, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Sampdoria

A

1

3

L

O

G

15 Dec

Udinese

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Spezia

H

4

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Napoli

H

0

4

L

O

N

29 Nov

Bologna

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Lazio

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Torino

A

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Atalanta

H

1

2

L

O

G


Parma in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Parma in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Parma’s performance as a guest.
Parma, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Parma was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Juventus

H

0

4

L

O

N

16 Dec

Cagliari

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Dec

Milan

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Dec

Benevento

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Nov

Genoa

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Roma

A

0

3

L

O

N

07 Nov

Fiorentina

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Inter

A

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crotone and the red line for guest team, Parma.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crotone

30%

20%

36%

14%

Parma

31%

27%

26%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crotone to score 1.22 goals and Parma to score 1.24 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crotone to score 1.33 goals and Parma to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

4.24

1

6.94

2-3

2.07

2

4.13

4+

3.57

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

6.17

Un 1.5

4.24

5

10.53

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.09

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

3.57

NoG

1.94

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.75

2.57

2.91

2-3 goals

1.94

8.78

2.70

4+ goals

3.89

2.46

2.98

Ov 1.5

2.38

4.51

2.79

Un 1.5

3.75

2.57

2.91

Ov 2.5

2.47

4.57

2.66

Un 2.5

2.76

3.25

3.03

Ov 3.5

3.89

2.46

2.98

Un 3.5

2.30

4.89

2.77

Goal-Goal

2.86

2.86

3.32

No Goal

2.40

5.60

2.48

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.54

3.76

2.94

NG+Un 2.5

2.45

5.60

2.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Juventus vs Fiorentina at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Juventus and Fiorentina for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Juventus

1.34

1.62

-12.9

Draw

5.38

4.46

3.8

Fiorentina

9.09

6.37

4.7

Over 2.5

1.63

2.19

-15.7

Under 2.5

2.30

1.84

10.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Fiorentina, Under 2.5 (3.8 %, 4.7 %, 10.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Juventus in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance at home.
Juventus, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Parma

A

4

0

W

O

N

16 Dec

Atalanta

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Genoa

A

3

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Torino

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Benevento

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Cagliari

H

2

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Lazio

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Spezia

A

4

1

W

O

G


Fiorentina in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fiorentina in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fiorentina’s performance as a guest.
Fiorentina, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fiorentina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Verona

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Sassuolo

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Atalanta

A

0

3

L

O

N

07 Dec

Genoa

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Nov

Milan

A

0

2

L

U

N

22 Nov

Benevento

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Parma

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Nov

Roma

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Juventus and the red line for guest team, Fiorentina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Juventus

18%

27%

31%

25%

Fiorentina

56%

21%

18%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Juventus to score 2.35 goals and Fiorentina to score 0.57 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.91 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 1.78 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.63 goals and Fiorentina to score 0.73 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 0.9 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.20

0-1

3.52

1

5.38

2-3

1.92

2

3.85

4+

5.08

3

3.85

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

8.13

Un 1.5

3.52

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.72

Ov 3.5

5.08

NoG

1.58

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.92

2.90

7.47

2-3 goals

1.39

9.12

5.84

4+ goals

2.01

2.86

6.57

Ov 1.5

1.52

5.69

6.03

Un 1.5

1.92

2.90

7.47

Ov 2.5

1.52

6.62

5.25

Un 2.5

1.71

3.51

7.77

Ov 3.5

2.01

2.86

6.57

Un 3.5

1.54

5.19

6.33

Goal-Goal

2.24

2.92

4.72

No Goal

1.39

6.46

8.01

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.90

4.51

3.99

NG+Un 2.5

1.53

6.46

6.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Udinese vs Benevento at 23 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Udinese and Benevento for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 23 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Udinese

1.90

2.17

-6.5

Draw

3.39

3.91

-3.9

Benevento

4.54

3.52

6.4

Over 2.5

2.11

1.89

5.5

Under 2.5

1.76

2.12

-9.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Benevento, Over 2.5 (6.4 %, 5.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Udinese in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Udinese in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance at home.
Udinese, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Udinese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Cagliari

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Crotone

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Torino

A

3

2

W

O

G

29 Nov

Lazio

A

3

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Genoa

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Nov

Sassuolo

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Nov

Milan

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Oct

Fiorentina

A

2

3

L

O

G


Benevento in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Benevento in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Benevento’s performance as a guest.
Benevento, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benevento was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Genoa

H

2

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Lazio

H

1

1

D

U

G

11 Dec

Sassuolo

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Parma

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Juventus

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Fiorentina

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Spezia

H

0

3

L

O

N

02 Nov

Verona

A

1

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Udinese and the red line for guest team, Benevento.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Udinese

22%

28%

29%

20%

Benevento

28%

42%

17%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Udinese to score 1.53 goals and Benevento to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Udinese to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Udinese to score 1.48 goals and Benevento to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and the home team Udinese to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.13

0-1

4.29

1

5.85

2-3

2.02

2

4.20

4+

3.66

3

3.89

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.81

Un 1.5

4.29

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.89

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

2.12

Gg

1.78

Ov 3.5

3.66

NoG

2.27

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.99

3.76

2.51

2-3 goals

1.88

4.23

4.30

4+ goals

2.29

3.50

3.59

Ov 1.5

2.01

3.94

4.02

Un 1.5

2.99

3.76

2.51

Ov 2.5

1.77

6.79

3.46

Un 2.5

2.93

2.63

3.60

Ov 3.5

2.29

3.50

3.59

Un 3.5

2.13

4.07

3.50

Goal-Goal

2.32

2.88

4.52

No Goal

2.02

7.10

2.75

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.83

5.69

3.58

NG+Un 2.5

2.20

7.10

2.70


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Spezia vs Genoa at 23 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Spezia and Genoa for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 23 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spezia

2.22

2.19

0.6

Draw

3.42

3.73

-2.4

Genoa

3.30

3.64

-2.8

Over 2.5

1.80

2.19

-9.9

Under 2.5

2.04

1.84

5.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spezia, Under 2.5 (0.6 %, 5.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spezia in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance at home.
Spezia, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Inter

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Dec

Bologna

H

2

2

D

O

G

12 Dec

Crotone

A

1

4

L

O

G

05 Dec

Lazio

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Cagliari

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Atalanta

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Benevento

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Juventus

H

1

4

L

O

G


Genoa in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Genoa in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Genoa’s performance as a guest.
Genoa, as a guest, had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Genoa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Benevento

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Dec

Milan

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Dec

Juventus

H

1

3

L

O

G

07 Dec

Fiorentina

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Nov

Parma

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Udinese

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Roma

H

1

3

L

O

G

04 Nov

Torino

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spezia and the red line for guest team, Genoa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spezia

27%

27%

30%

17%

Genoa

44%

18%

29%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.52 goals and Genoa to score 1.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the home team Spezia to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.36 goals and Genoa to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Spezia to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.55

0-1

3.51

1

5.95

2-3

2.05

2

3.86

4+

4.39

3

4.37

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.51

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.43

Ov 3.5

4.39

NoG

1.70

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.38