2020 12 22 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Cosenza vs Venezia at 22 December 2020
Empoli vs Reggiana at 22 December 2020
Monza vs Ascoli at 22 December 2020
Pescara vs Brescia at 22 December 2020
Pisa vs Chievo at 22 December 2020
Pordenone vs Cremonese at 22 December 2020
Spal vs Lecce at 22 December 2020
Vicenza vs Reggina at 22 December 2020
Cittadella vs Frosinone at 22 December 2020


Cosenza vs Venezia at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Cosenza and Venezia for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cosenza

3.03

2.76

3.2

Draw

2.95

3.30

-3.6

Venezia

2.53

2.99

-6.1

Over 2.5

2.22

2.40

-3.4

Under 2.5

1.67

1.72

-1.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cosenza (3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cosenza in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cosenza in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cosenza’s performance at home.
Cosenza, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cosenza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Cremonese

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Ascoli

A

3

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Reggiana

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Vicenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Nov

Salernitana

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Nov

Frosinone

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Brescia

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Chievo

A

0

2

L

U

N


Venezia in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance as a guest.
Venezia, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Spal

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Dec

Reggina

A

2

1

W

O

G

11 Dec

Monza

H

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Lecce

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Ascoli

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Brescia

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Nov

Virtus Entella

A

2

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Reggiana

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cosenza and the red line for guest team, Venezia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cosenza

26%

41%

22%

11%

Venezia

26%

44%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cosenza to score 1.06 goals and Venezia to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cosenza to score 1.18 goals and Venezia to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.41

1

4.46

2-3

1.92

2

3.46

4+

5.38

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.63

Un 1.5

3.41

5

22.73

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

5.38

NoG

2.18

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.69

4.25

2.55

2-3 goals

2.80

2.89

3.36

4+ goals

2.74

3.51

2.86

Ov 1.5

2.78

3.03

3.21

Un 1.5

2.69

4.25

2.55

Ov 2.5

2.14

7.89

2.46

Un 2.5

3.46

2.34

3.53

Ov 3.5

2.74

3.51

2.86

Un 3.5

2.76

3.27

3.01

Goal-Goal

3.27

2.33

3.79

No Goal

2.32

6.64

2.39

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.18

6.83

2.53

NG+Un 2.5

2.39

6.64

2.44


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Empoli vs Reggiana at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Empoli and Reggiana for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Empoli

1.62

2.13

-14.8

Draw

3.96

3.85

0.7

Reggiana

5.61

3.70

9.2

Over 2.5

1.70

2.09

-11.0

Under 2.5

2.18

1.92

6.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Reggiana, Under 2.5 (0.7 %, 9.2 %, 6.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Empoli in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Empoli in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Empoli’s performance at home.
Empoli, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Empoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Chievo

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Cremonese

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Virtus Entella

A

5

2

W

O

G

07 Dec

Pordenone

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Vicenza

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Cittadella

A

2

2

D

O

G

07 Nov

Reggina

H

3

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Venezia

A

0

2

L

U

N


Reggiana in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggiana in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggiana’s performance as a guest.
Reggiana, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggiana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Brescia

A

1

3

L

O

G

15 Dec

Frosinone

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Cosenza

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Monza

H

3

0

W

O

N

29 Nov

Cremonese

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Lecce

A

1

7

L

O

G

08 Nov

Venezia

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Ascoli

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Empoli and the red line for guest team, Reggiana.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Empoli

22%

32%

30%

17%

Reggiana

37%

32%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Empoli to score 1.99 goals and Reggiana to score 0.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.8 goals in the game and the home team Empoli to win by 1.18 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Empoli to score 1.42 goals and Reggiana to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Empoli to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.75

1

5.35

2-3

2.00

2

3.94

4+

4.29

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.75

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.29

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.30

3.34

3.76

2-3 goals

1.87

4.89

3.84

4+ goals

2.68

2.99

3.43

Ov 1.5

2.07

4.07

3.70

Un 1.5

2.30

3.34

3.76

Ov 2.5

1.95

6.13

3.08

Un 2.5

2.32

2.86

4.57

Ov 3.5

2.68

2.99

3.43

Un 3.5

2.00

4.21

3.81

Goal-Goal

2.69

2.75

3.78

No Goal

1.76

6.30

3.65

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.14

5.04

3.00

NG+Un 2.5

1.86

6.30

3.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Monza vs Ascoli at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Monza and Ascoli for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Monza

1.41

1.90

-18.3

Draw

4.47

3.92

3.1

Ascoli

7.44

4.57

8.4

Over 2.5

1.77

2.21

-11.2

Under 2.5

2.05

1.83

5.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Ascoli, Under 2.5 (3.1 %, 8.4 %, 5.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Monza in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monza in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance at home.
Monza, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Pescara

A

2

3

L

O

G

15 Dec

Virtus Entella

H

5

0

W

O

N

11 Dec

Venezia

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Reggiana

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Dec

Vicenza

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Reggina

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Pordenone

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Frosinone

H

2

0

W

U

N


Ascoli in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ascoli in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance as a guest.
Ascoli, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 9.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Vicenza

A

1

2

L

O

G

15 Dec

Cosenza

H

0

3

L

O

N

12 Dec

Cremonese

A

3

3

D

O

G

08 Dec

Pisa

A

1

2

L

O

G

04 Dec

Pescara

H

0

2

L

U

N

28 Nov

Venezia

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Virtus Entella

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Pordenone

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Monza and the red line for guest team, Ascoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Monza

17%

41%

18%

23%

Ascoli

43%

31%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Monza to score 2.07 goals and Ascoli to score 0.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the home team Monza to win by 1.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Monza to score 1.47 goals and Ascoli to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Monza to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.25

1

4.29

2-3

2.08

2

4.20

4+

4.74

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.30

Un 1.5

3.25

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

4.74

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.72

4.11

5.70

2-3 goals

2.04

3.72

4.14

4+ goals

1.90

4.14

4.31

Ov 1.5

2.00

3.84

4.19

Un 1.5

1.72

4.11

5.70

Ov 2.5

1.70

8.88

3.36

Un 2.5

2.12

2.68

6.50

Ov 3.5

1.90

4.14

4.31

Un 3.5

1.90

3.86

4.64

Goal-Goal

2.79

2.61

3.88

No Goal

1.48

7.07

5.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.02

6.67

2.81

NG+Un 2.5

1.62

7.07

4.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Pescara vs Brescia at 22 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Pescara and Brescia for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 22 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pescara

2.99

2.49

6.7

Draw

3.13

3.70

-4.9

Brescia

2.43

3.04

-8.3

Over 2.5

1.99

2.09

-2.4

Under 2.5

1.83

1.92

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pescara (6.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pescara in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pescara in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance at home.
Pescara, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Monza

H

3

2

W

O

G

15 Dec

Pisa

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Vicenza

H

2

3

L

O

G

04 Dec

Ascoli

A

2

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Pordenone

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Nov

Spal

A

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Cittadella

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Lecce

A

1

3

L

O

G


Brescia in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Brescia in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Brescia’s performance as a guest.
Brescia, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brescia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Reggiana

H

3

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Pordenone

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Salernitana

H

3

1

W

O

G

08 Dec

Cremonese

A

2

2

D

O

G

05 Dec

Reggina

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Nov

Frosinone

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Venezia

H

2

2

D

O

G

07 Nov

Cosenza

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pescara and the red line for guest team, Brescia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pescara

26%

31%

31%

12%

Brescia

30%

35%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pescara to score 1.14 goals and Brescia to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pescara to score 1.29 goals and Brescia to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.79

1

5.38

2-3

1.98

2

3.86

4+

4.31

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.79

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-