2020 12 22 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Larisa vs Lamia at 23 December 2020


Larisa vs Lamia at 23 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Larisa and Lamia for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 23 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Larisa

1.61

2.17

-16.0

Draw

3.92

3.44

3.6

Lamia

5.54

4.02

6.8

Over 2.5

2.42

2.86

-6.4

Under 2.5

1.58

1.54

1.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Lamia, Under 2.5 (3.6 %, 6.8 %, 1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Larisa in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance at home.
Larisa, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Olympiakos

A

1

5

L

O

G

12 Dec

OFI Crete

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Dec

Panetolikos

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Aris

H

0

3

L

O

N

28 Nov

Atromitos

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Nov

AEK

A

1

4

L

O

G

04 Nov

Giannina

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Volos NFC

A

1

1

D

U

G


Lamia in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lamia in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance as a guest.
Lamia, as a guest, had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 1 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lamia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Dec

Olympiakos

H

0

6

L

O

N

06 Dec

Giannina

A

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

PAOK

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Nov

Asteras Tripolis

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Panathinaikos

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Oct

Panetolikos

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Oct

Volos NFC

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Sep

AEK

A

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Larisa and the red line for guest team, Lamia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Larisa

31%

32%

23%

14%

Lamia

45%

33%

17%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Larisa to score 1.52 goals and Lamia to score 0.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and the home team Larisa to win by 0.9 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Larisa to score 1.2 goals and Lamia to score 0.81 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.01 goals in the game and the home team Larisa to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.30

0-1

2.60

1

4.05

2-3

2.10

2

3.76

4+

7.09

3

4.76

Ov 1.5

1.62

4

9.90

Un 1.5

2.60

5

29.41

Ov 2.5

2.85

6+

166.67

Un 2.5

1.54

Gg

2.61

Ov 3.5

7.09

NoG

1.62

Un 3.5

1.16

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

2.80

3.76

2-3 goals

1.93

4.41

3.93

4+ goals

2.04

3.07

5.42

Ov 1.5

1.95

4.01

4.20

Un 1.5

2.65

2.80

3.76

Ov 2.5

1.67

7.63

3.69

Un 2.5

2.59

2.65

4.22

Ov 3.5

2.04

3.07

5.42

Un 3.5

2.19

3.51

3.86

Goal-Goal

2.59

2.49

4.73

No Goal

1.97

4.51

3.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

5.98

3.40

NG+Un 2.5

2.16

4.51

3.52


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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