# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Derby vs Preston at 26 December 2020**** Watford vs Norwich at 26 December 2020**** Reading vs Luton at 26 December 2020**

<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’>** Nott’m Forest vs Birmingham at 26 December 2020**** Cardiff vs Brentford at 26 December 2020**** Bristol City vs Wycombe at 26 December 2020**** Blackburn vs Sheffield Weds at 26 December 2020**** Barnsley vs Huddersfield at 26 December 2020**** Coventry vs Stoke at 26 December 2020**** QPR vs Swansea at 26 December 2020**

###
Derby vs Preston at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Derby** and **Preston** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **26 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Derby |
2.42 |
2.78 |
-5.4 |

Draw |
3.21 |
3.50 |
-2.6 |

Preston |
3.02 |
2.82 |
2.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.31 |
-0.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.63 |
1.76 |
-4.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Preston (2.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Derby** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Derby** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 1 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance** at home**.

Derby,** at home**, had one win, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 23.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Dec |
Swansea |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Stoke |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Brentford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Millwall |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Wycombe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Nov |
Middlesbrough |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Bristol City |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Preston** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Preston** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance** as a guest**.

Preston,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

18 Dec |
Bristol City |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Luton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

09 Dec |
Middlesbrough |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Bournemouth |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Watford |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Blackburn |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Derby** and the red line for guest team, **Preston. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Derby |
29% |
39% |
17% |
14% |

Preston |
30% |
37% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Derby** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Preston** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.22** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Derby** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Preston** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.01** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.19 |

1 |
4.44 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.76 |

3 |
4.46 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |

4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
3.19 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.76 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.65 |
3.56 |
2.93 |

2-3 goals |
2.99 |
3.30 |
2.76 |

4+ goals |
2.56 |
3.96 |
2.80 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.84 |
3.47 |
2.77 |

Un 1.5 |
2.65 |
3.56 |
2.93 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
8.19 |
2.27 |

Un 2.5 |
3.34 |
2.43 |
3.46 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.56 |
3.96 |
2.80 |

Un 3.5 |
2.85 |
3.39 |
2.83 |

Goal-Goal |
3.40 |
2.51 |
3.26 |

No Goal |
2.36 |
5.74 |
2.49 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.40 |
6.62 |
2.31 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.48 |
5.74 |
2.57 |

####
Go to Top

###
Watford vs Norwich at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Watford** and **Norwich** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **26 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Watford |
2.59 |
2.27 |
5.4 |

Draw |
3.21 |
3.62 |
-3.5 |

Norwich |
2.78 |
3.52 |
-7.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.10 |
2.18 |
-1.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.85 |
-3.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Watford (5.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Watford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Watford** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance** at home**.

Watford,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 23 points, 76.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Birmingham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Rotherham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Preston |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Bristol City |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Norwich** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Norwich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Norwich** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Norwich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Norwich’s performance** as a guest**.

Norwich,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 73.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Norwich scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Norwich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Cardiff |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Reading |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Blackburn |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Luton |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Stoke |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Watford** and the red line for guest team, **Norwich. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Watford |
24% |
34% |
24% |
18% |

Norwich |
32% |
42% |
16% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Norwich** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Norwich** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.48 |

1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.48 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.63 |
3.73 |
2.84 |

2-3 goals |
2.14 |
3.44 |
4.13 |

4+ goals |
2.19 |
3.91 |
3.48 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.15 |
3.58 |
3.91 |

Un 1.5 |
2.63 |
3.73 |
2.84 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |
8.05 |
3.17 |

Un 2.5 |
2.95 |
2.47 |
3.91 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.19 |
3.91 |
3.48 |

Un 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.54 |
3.54 |

Goal-Goal |
2.58 |
2.60 |
4.40 |

No Goal |
2.01 |
6.27 |
2.91 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
6.60 |
3.19 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.17 |
6.27 |
2.88 |

####
Go to Top

###
Reading vs Luton at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Reading** and **Luton** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **26 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Reading |
2.08 |
1.86 |
5.7 |

Draw |
3.29 |
3.98 |
-5.3 |

Luton |
3.69 |
4.72 |
-5.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.26 |
2.06 |
4.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.94 |
-9.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Reading, Over 2.5 (5.7 %, 4.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Reading** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reading** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance** at home**.

Reading,** at home**, had 6 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Brentford |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
QPR |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Birmingham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Bristol City |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Millwall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Luton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Luton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance** as a guest**.

Luton,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Bournemouth |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Middlesbrough |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Preston |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Dec |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Norwich |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Cardiff |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Nov |
Birmingham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Reading** and the red line for guest team, **Luton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Reading |
19% |
31% |
29% |
22% |

Luton |
38% |
39% |
14% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Reading** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Luton** to score **0.89 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and the home team **Reading ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Reading** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Luton** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Reading ** to win by **0.6** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.85 |

1 |
5.29 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.37 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.37 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.24 |
3.66 |
3.56 |

2-3 goals |
1.68 |
4.27 |
5.84 |

4+ goals |
1.94 |
3.82 |
4.49 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.75 |
4.12 |
5.34 |

Un 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.66 |
3.56 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.55 |
8.05 |
4.35 |

Un 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.71 |
5.14 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.94 |
3.82 |
4.49 |

Un 3.5 |
1.84 |
4.04 |
4.80 |

Goal-Goal |
2.20 |
2.81 |
5.29 |

No Goal |
1.61 |
6.96 |
4.26 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
6.40 |
4.04 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.76 |
6.96 |
3.95 |

####
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<a id=‘Nott’m Forest’>

###
Nott’m Forest vs Birmingham at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Nott’m Forest** and **Birmingham** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **26 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Nott’m Forest |
2.28 |
2.25 |
0.6 |

Draw |
3.08 |
3.56 |
-4.4 |

Birmingham |
3.41 |
3.64 |
-1.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.54 |
2.27 |
4.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.50 |
1.79 |
-10.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Nott’m Forest, Over 2.5 (0.6 %, 4.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Nott’m Forest** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nott’m Forest** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Nott’m Forest** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nott’m Forest’s performance** at home**.

Nott’m Forest,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nott’m Forest was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Millwall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Dec |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Reading |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Watford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Swansea |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Bournemouth |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Birmingham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Birmingham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance** as a guest**.

Birmingham,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Middlesbrough |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Cardiff |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Watford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Reading |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Bristol City |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Barnsley |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Millwall |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Luton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Nott’m Forest** and the red line for guest team, **Birmingham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Nott’m Forest |
25% |
36% |
18% |
20% |

Birmingham |
36% |
40% |
13% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Nott’m Forest** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Birmingham** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.05** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Nott’m Forest** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Birmingham** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and the home team **Nott’m Forest ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.11 |
0-1 |
3.13 |

1 |
4.37 |
2-3 |
2.16 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
4.59 |

3 |
4.48 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.13 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |

Gg |
2.08 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.59 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.49 |
3.54 |
3.16 |