2020 12 25 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Altrincham vs Stockport at 26 December 2020
Maidenhead vs Wealdstone at 26 December 2020
King’s Lynn vs Notts County at 26 December 2020
Hartlepool vs Halifax at 26 December 2020
Dover Athletic vs Dag and Red at 26 December 2020
Torquay vs Yeovil at 26 December 2020
Aldershot vs Woking at 26 December 2020
Eastleigh vs Weymouth at 26 December 2020


Altrincham vs Stockport at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Altrincham and Stockport for Conference (England), which will take place on 26 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Altrincham

3.73

2.53

12.7

Draw

3.51

3.70

-1.5

Stockport

1.88

2.99

-19.7

Over 2.5

1.91

2.01

-2.6

Under 2.5

1.85

1.99

-3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Altrincham (12.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Altrincham in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Altrincham in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance at home.
Altrincham, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Dag and Red

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Wrexham

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Maidenhead

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Bromley

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Boreham Wood

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Nov

Chesterfield

H

3

2

W

O

G

14 Nov

Aldershot

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 Nov

Solihull

H

0

2

L

U

N


Stockport in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance as a guest.
Stockport, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stockport was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Dec

Hartlepool

A

0

4

L

O

N

15 Dec

Notts County

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Dec

Barnet

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Bromley

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Weymouth

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Oct

Solihull

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Chesterfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Oct

Wealdstone

A

5

2

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Altrincham and the red line for guest team, Stockport.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Altrincham

24%

36%

23%

17%

Stockport

29%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Altrincham to score 0.95 goals and Stockport to score 1.56 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the guest team Stockport to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Altrincham to score 1.33 goals and Stockport to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.94

1

5.38

2-3

2.03

2

4.03

4+

3.95

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.94

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.84

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.20

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.47

3.74

3.06

2-3 goals

2.51

3.90

2.89

4+ goals

2.64

3.33

3.12

Ov 1.5

2.55

3.69

2.97

Un 1.5

2.47

3.74

3.06

Ov 2.5

2.21

6.54

2.54

Un 2.5

2.95

2.59

3.64

Ov 3.5

2.64

3.33

3.12

Un 3.5

2.49

3.85

2.95

Goal-Goal

3.06

2.69

3.32

No Goal

2.10

6.69

2.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.35

5.50

2.55

NG+Un 2.5

2.21

6.69

2.72


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Maidenhead vs Wealdstone at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Maidenhead and Wealdstone for Conference (England), which will take place on 26 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Maidenhead

2.34

2.43

-1.6

Draw

3.55

3.75

-1.5

Wealdstone

2.66

3.11

-5.4

Over 2.5

1.60

2.02

-13.0

Under 2.5

2.25

1.98

6.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (6.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Maidenhead in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance at home.
Maidenhead, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Dec

Torquay

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Eastleigh

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Altrincham

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Nov

Bromley

H

2

2

D

O

G

17 Nov

Aldershot

A

0

0

D

U

N

14 Nov

Chesterfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Solihull

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Dag and Red

H

2

1

W

O

G


Wealdstone in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance as a guest.
Wealdstone, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Weymouth

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Barnet

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Dec

Torquay

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Nov

Notts County

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Nov

Sutton

H

3

3

D

O

G

17 Nov

Eastleigh

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Nov

Halifax

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Altrincham

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Maidenhead and the red line for guest team, Wealdstone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Maidenhead

25%

33%

24%

18%

Wealdstone

30%

35%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.53 goals and Wealdstone to score 1.39 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.92 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.35 goals and Wealdstone to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.86

1

5.41

2-3

2.05

2

4.12

4+

3.97

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.86

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

3.50

2.94

2-3 goals

2.33

4.20

3.01

4+ goals

2.45

3.27

3.50

Ov 1.5

2.37

3.83

3.16

Un 1.5

2.67

3.50

2.94

Ov 2.5

2.06

6.44

2.79

Un 2.5

2.99

2.64

3.49

Ov 3.5

2.45

3.27

3.50

Un 3.5

2.44

3.93

2.98

Goal-Goal

2.80

2.73

3.61

No Goal

2.13

6.36

2.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.19

5.34

2.82

NG+Un 2.5

2.30

6.36

2.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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King’s Lynn vs Notts County at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between King’s Lynn and Notts County for Conference (England), which will take place on 26 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

King’s Lynn

3.65

2.79

8.4

Draw

3.82

3.65

1.2

Notts County

1.83

2.72

-17.9

Over 2.5

1.58

2.01

-13.5

Under 2.5

2.30

1.99

6.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at King’s Lynn, Draw, Under 2.5 (8.4 %, 1.2 %, 6.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

King’s Lynn in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, King’s Lynn in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance at home.
King’s Lynn, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of King’s Lynn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Torquay

H

0

0

D

U

N

08 Dec

Hartlepool

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

Bromley

H

1

4

L

O

G

21 Nov

Dover Athletic

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Nov

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

14 Nov

Sutton

A

1

5

L

O

G

31 Oct

Woking

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Oct

Wealdstone

H

2

3

L

O

G


Notts County in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance as a guest.
Notts County, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Stockport

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Boreham Wood

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Woking

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Dag and Red

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Nov

Wealdstone

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Chesterfield

A

3

2

W

O

G

17 Nov

Halifax

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Aldershot

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, King’s Lynn and the red line for guest team, Notts County.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

King’s Lynn

24%

39%

22%

14%

Notts County

26%

34%

24%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) King’s Lynn to score 1.11 goals and Notts County to score 1.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.96 goals in the game and the guest team Notts County to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) King’s Lynn to score 1.26 goals and Notts County to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

3.98

1

5.35

2-3

2.02

2

3.98

4+

3.97

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.98

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.80

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.26

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.41

3.92

3.02

2-3 goals

2.87

3.70

2.62

4+ goals

3.07

3.32

2.68

Ov 1.5

2.93

3.56

2.64

Un 1.5

2.41

3.92

3.02

Ov 2.5

2.54

6.54

2.21

Un 2.5

3.08

2.54

3.56

Ov 3.5

3.07

3.32

2.68

Un 3.5

2.70

3.77

2.75

Goal-Goal

3.50

2.65

2.96

No Goal

2.21

6.91

2.48

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.66

5.57

2.25

NG+Un 2.5

2.26

6.91

2.61


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Hartlepool vs Halifax at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Hartlepool and Halifax for Conference (England), which will take place on 26 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hartlepool

2.05

2.53

-9.3

Draw

3.39

3.69

-2.4

Halifax

3.32

3.00

3.2

Over 2.5

1.94

2.01

-1.8

Under 2.5

1.82

1.99

-4.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Halifax (3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hartlepool in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance at home.
Hartlepool, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Dec

Stockport

H

4

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Woking

A

0

3

L

O

N

08 Dec

King’s Lynn

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Boreham Wood

H

1

2

L

O

G

01 Dec

Solihull

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Nov

Barnet

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Yeovil

A

3

1

W

O

G

17 Nov

Wrexham

H

0

1

L

U

N


Halifax in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance as a guest.
Halifax, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Dec

Eastleigh

H

3

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Solihull

A

1

2

L

O

G

08 Dec

Aldershot

A

3

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Weymouth

A

5

1

W

O

G

02 Dec

Barnet

H

5

2

W

O

G

28 Nov

Sutton

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Torquay

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Nov

Notts County

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hartlepool and the red line for guest team, Halifax.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hartlepool

24%

36%

23%

17%

Halifax

29%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hartlepool to score 1.45 goals and Halifax to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Hartlepool to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hartlepool to score 1.33 goals and Halifax to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.94

1

5.38

2-3

2.04

2

4.05

4+

3.95

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.94

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.84

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.20

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at