2020 12 25 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar at 27 December 2020


Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar at 27 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Utrecht and AZ Alkmaar for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 27 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Utrecht

2.73

2.74

-0.1

Draw

3.65

3.31

2.8

AZ Alkmaar

2.37

3.01

-9.0

Over 2.5

1.55

1.90

-11.9

Under 2.5

2.40

2.11

5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (2.8 %, 5.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Utrecht in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Utrecht in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance at home.
Utrecht, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Dec

FC Emmen

A

3

2

W

O

G

19 Dec

For Sittard

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

PSV Eindhoven

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Den Haag

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Nov

Feyenoord

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Zwolle

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Ajax

H

0

3

L

O

N

01 Nov

Heracles

A

1

4

L

O

G


AZ Alkmaar in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AZ Alkmaar in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at AZ Alkmaar’s performance as a guest.
AZ Alkmaar, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AZ Alkmaar was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

Vitesse

H

3

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Willem II

H

5

3

W

O

G

13 Dec

Twente

A

3

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Groningen

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Heracles

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

FC Emmen

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Heerenveen

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Waalwijk

H

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Utrecht and the red line for guest team, AZ Alkmaar.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Utrecht

20%

42%

19%

20%

AZ Alkmaar

17%

49%

20%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Utrecht to score 1.43 goals and AZ Alkmaar to score 1.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.03 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Utrecht to score 1.39 goals and AZ Alkmaar to score 1.31 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

30.30

0-1

5.00

1

5.99

2-3

1.95

2

3.64

4+

3.47

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.25

4

5.18

Un 1.5

5.00

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

1.90

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

2.11

Gg

1.50

Ov 3.5

3.47

NoG

3.00

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.86

6.06

2.06

2-3 goals

3.28

2.52

3.35

4+ goals

2.07

4.36

3.47

Ov 1.5

2.71

2.97

3.39

Un 1.5

2.86

6.06

2.06

Ov 2.5

1.99

7.95

2.69

Un 2.5

4.70

2.01

3.44

Ov 3.5

2.07

4.36

3.47

Un 3.5

3.15

3.02

2.85

Goal-Goal

2.90

2.48

3.97

No Goal

2.47

10.09

2.02

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.02

7.03

2.76

NG+Un 2.5

2.69

10.09

1.97


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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