2020 12 25 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Crewe vs Fleetwood Town at 26 December 2020
Wigan vs Shrewsbury at 26 December 2020
Oxford vs AFC Wimbledon at 26 December 2020
Milton Keynes Dons vs Bristol Rvs at 26 December 2020
Doncaster vs Accrington at 26 December 2020
Charlton vs Plymouth at 26 December 2020
Blackpool vs Rochdale at 26 December 2020
Lincoln vs Burton at 26 December 2020


Crewe vs Fleetwood Town at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Crewe and Fleetwood Town for League One (England), which will take place on 26 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crewe

2.16

2.30

-2.8

Draw

3.42

3.83

-3.1

Fleetwood Town

3.23

3.29

-0.6

Over 2.5

1.98

1.96

0.5

Under 2.5

1.81

2.04

-6.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crewe in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crewe in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance at home.
Crewe, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Plymouth

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Northampton

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Burton

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Dec

Swindon

H

4

2

W

O

G

24 Nov

Accrington

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Portsmouth

A

1

4

L

O

G

17 Nov

Oxford

A

2

0

W

U

N


Fleetwood Town in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fleetwood Town in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fleetwood Town’s performance as a guest.
Fleetwood Town, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fleetwood Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Wigan

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Portsmouth

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Swindon

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Blackpool

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

Northampton

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Nov

Sunderland

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Plymouth

H

5

1

W

O

G

14 Nov

Bristol Rvs

A

4

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crewe and the red line for guest team, Fleetwood Town.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crewe

25%

29%

27%

19%

Fleetwood Town

30%

36%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crewe to score 1.4 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Crewe to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crewe to score 1.4 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.98

1

5.65

2-3

2.05

2

4.17

4+

3.85

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.98

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

3.85

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.85

3.39

2.82

2-3 goals

2.04

4.59

3.43

4+ goals

2.43

3.21

3.61

Ov 1.5

2.16

3.99

3.49

Un 1.5

2.85

3.39

2.82

Ov 2.5

1.93

6.26

3.11

Un 2.5

2.87

2.73

3.51

Ov 3.5

2.43

3.21

3.61

Un 3.5

2.26

4.10

3.19

Goal-Goal

2.55

2.81

3.98

No Goal

2.07

6.39

2.77

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.03

5.17

3.17

NG+Un 2.5

2.25

6.39

2.75


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Wigan vs Shrewsbury at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Wigan and Shrewsbury for League One (England), which will take place on 26 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wigan

3.09

2.72

4.4

Draw

3.32

3.80

-3.8

Shrewsbury

2.26

2.71

-7.3

Over 2.5

2.05

1.95

2.5

Under 2.5

1.75

2.05

-8.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wigan, Over 2.5 (4.4 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wigan in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wigan in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance at home.
Wigan, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Fleetwood Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Rochdale

H

0

5

L

O

N

12 Dec

Accrington

H

4

3

W

O

G

05 Dec

Sunderland

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Lincoln

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Bristol Rvs

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Oxford

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Nov

Blackpool

A

0

1

L

U

N


Shrewsbury in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance as a guest.
Shrewsbury, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Dec

Doncaster

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Lincoln

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Hull

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Charlton

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Dec

Accrington

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

Milton Keynes Dons

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Ipswich

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Nov

Swindon

H

3

3

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wigan and the red line for guest team, Shrewsbury.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wigan

29%

29%

25%

17%

Shrewsbury

24%

38%

25%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.06 goals and Shrewsbury to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.3 goals and Shrewsbury to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.02

1

5.59

2-3

2.06

2

4.17

4+

3.77

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.06

Un 1.5

4.02

5

13.16

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.77

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.56

3.56

2.28

2-3 goals

2.53

4.46

2.63

4+ goals

2.50

3.15

3.53

Ov 1.5

2.52

3.89

2.89

Un 1.5

3.56

3.56

2.28

Ov 2.5

2.14

6.08

2.72

Un 2.5

3.79

2.73

2.70

Ov 3.5

2.50

3.15

3.53

Un 3.5

2.81

4.11

2.50

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.79

3.66

No Goal

2.72

6.60

2.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.17

5.11

2.92

NG+Un 2.5

2.95

6.60

2.10


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Oxford vs AFC Wimbledon at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Oxford and AFC Wimbledon for League One (England), which will take place on 26 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Oxford

1.79

2.54

-16.5

Draw

3.77

3.72

0.4

AFC Wimbledon

4.16

2.97

9.6

Over 2.5

1.97

2.02

-1.3

Under 2.5

1.82

1.98

-4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, AFC Wimbledon (0.4 %, 9.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Oxford in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance at home.
Oxford, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Dec

Northampton

H

4

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Blackpool

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Hull

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Dec

Ipswich

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Swindon

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Portsmouth

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Wigan

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Nov

Crewe

H

0

2

L

U

N


AFC Wimbledon in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, AFC Wimbledon in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance as a guest.
AFC Wimbledon, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Crewe

H

1

2

L

O

G

15 Dec

Sunderland

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Charlton

A

2

5

L

O

G

05 Dec

Bristol Rvs

H

2

4

L

O

G

02 Dec

Peterboro

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Gillingham

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Rochdale

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Doncaster

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oxford and the red line for guest team, AFC Wimbledon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Oxford

27%

32%

25%

17%

AFC Wimbledon

27%

37%

24%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.6 goals and AFC Wimbledon to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Oxford to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.32 goals and AFC Wimbledon to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.89

1

5.43

2-3

2.03

2

4.05

4+

3.97

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.89

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.99

3.52

2.62

2-3 goals

2.40

4.21

2.88

4+ goals

2.42

3.15

3.71

Ov 1.5

2.41

3.78

3.12

Un 1.5

2.99

3.52

2.62

Ov 2.5

2.06

6.22

2.83

Un 2.5

3.29

2.65

3.13

Ov 3.5

2.42

3.15

3.71

Un 3.5

2.58

3.95

2.79

Goal-Goal

2.75

2.72

3.72

No Goal

2.33

6.38

2.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.15

5.24

2.91

NG+Un 2.5

2.53

6.38

2.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Milton Keynes Dons vs Bristol Rvs at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Milton Keynes Dons and Bristol Rvs for League One (England), which will take place on 26 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Milton Keynes Dons

1.76

2.29

-13.2

Draw

3.59

3.68

-0.7

Bristol Rvs

4.51

3.42

7.1

Over 2.5

1.99

2.12

-3.1

Under 2.5

1.80

1.89

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bristol Rvs (7.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Milton Keynes Dons in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milton Keynes Dons in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance at home.
Milton Keynes Dons, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Plymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Peterboro

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Burton

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Accrington

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Charlton

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Shrewsbury

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Hull

H

1

3

L

O

G

14 Nov

Sunderland

A

2

1

W

O

G


Bristol Rvs in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol Rvs in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance as a guest.
Bristol Rvs, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Plymouth

H

3

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

A

4

2

W

O

G

02 Dec

Gillingham

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Nov

Wigan

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Swindon

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Nov

Fleetwood Town

H

1

4

L

O

G

03 Nov

Peterboro

H

0

2

L

U

N

31 Oct

Rochdale

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Milton Keynes Dons and the red line for guest team, Bristol Rvs.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Milton Keynes Dons

23%

35%

25%

17%

Bristol Rvs

33%

36%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.61 goals and Bristol Rvs to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Milton Keynes Dons to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.36 goals and Bristol Rvs to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.68

1

5.08

2-3

2.00

2

3.91

4+

4.37

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.68

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.37

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.37

3.63

3.32