# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Crewe vs Fleetwood Town at 26 December 2020**** Wigan vs Shrewsbury at 26 December 2020**** Oxford vs AFC Wimbledon at 26 December 2020**** Milton Keynes Dons vs Bristol Rvs at 26 December 2020**** Doncaster vs Accrington at 26 December 2020**** Charlton vs Plymouth at 26 December 2020**** Blackpool vs Rochdale at 26 December 2020**** Lincoln vs Burton at 26 December 2020**

###
Crewe vs Fleetwood Town at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crewe** and **Fleetwood Town** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **26 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crewe |
2.16 |
2.30 |
-2.8 |

Draw |
3.42 |
3.83 |
-3.1 |

Fleetwood Town |
3.23 |
3.29 |
-0.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
1.96 |
0.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
2.04 |
-6.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crewe** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crewe** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance** at home**.

Crewe,** at home**, had 6 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Burton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Dec |
Swindon |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Oxford |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Fleetwood Town** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fleetwood Town** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fleetwood Town’s performance** as a guest**.

Fleetwood Town,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fleetwood Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Portsmouth |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Swindon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Nov |
Sunderland |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Plymouth |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crewe** and the red line for guest team, **Fleetwood Town. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crewe |
25% |
29% |
27% |
19% |

Fleetwood Town |
30% |
36% |
21% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crewe** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Fleetwood Town** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Crewe ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crewe** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Fleetwood Town** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.24** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.98 |

1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.85 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.98 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.85 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.85 |
3.39 |
2.82 |

2-3 goals |
2.04 |
4.59 |
3.43 |

4+ goals |
2.43 |
3.21 |
3.61 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.16 |
3.99 |
3.49 |

Un 1.5 |
2.85 |
3.39 |
2.82 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
6.26 |
3.11 |

Un 2.5 |
2.87 |
2.73 |
3.51 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.43 |
3.21 |
3.61 |

Un 3.5 |
2.26 |
4.10 |
3.19 |

Goal-Goal |
2.55 |
2.81 |
3.98 |

No Goal |
2.07 |
6.39 |
2.77 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
5.17 |
3.17 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
6.39 |
2.75 |

####
Go to Top

###
Wigan vs Shrewsbury at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wigan** and **Shrewsbury** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **26 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wigan |
3.09 |
2.72 |
4.4 |

Draw |
3.32 |
3.80 |
-3.8 |

Shrewsbury |
2.26 |
2.71 |
-7.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.05 |
1.95 |
2.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
2.05 |
-8.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wigan, Over 2.5 (4.4 %, 2.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wigan** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wigan** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance** at home**.

Wigan,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Rochdale |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Accrington |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Shrewsbury** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Shrewsbury** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance** as a guest**.

Shrewsbury,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Dec |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Hull |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Charlton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Dec |
Accrington |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Swindon |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wigan** and the red line for guest team, **Shrewsbury. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wigan |
29% |
29% |
25% |
17% |

Shrewsbury |
24% |
38% |
25% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wigan** to score **1.06 ** goals and **Shrewsbury** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.26** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wigan** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Shrewsbury** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.01** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.02 |

1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.77 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
4.02 |

5 |
13.16 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.77 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.56 |
3.56 |
2.28 |

2-3 goals |
2.53 |
4.46 |
2.63 |

4+ goals |
2.50 |
3.15 |
3.53 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.52 |
3.89 |
2.89 |

Un 1.5 |
3.56 |
3.56 |
2.28 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
6.08 |
2.72 |

Un 2.5 |
3.79 |
2.73 |
2.70 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.50 |
3.15 |
3.53 |

Un 3.5 |
2.81 |
4.11 |
2.50 |

Goal-Goal |
2.72 |
2.79 |
3.66 |

No Goal |
2.72 |
6.60 |
2.08 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
5.11 |
2.92 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.95 |
6.60 |
2.10 |

####
Go to Top

###
Oxford vs AFC Wimbledon at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Oxford** and **AFC Wimbledon** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **26 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Oxford |
1.79 |
2.54 |
-16.5 |

Draw |
3.77 |
3.72 |
0.4 |

AFC Wimbledon |
4.16 |
2.97 |
9.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.02 |
-1.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.98 |
-4.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, AFC Wimbledon (0.4 %, 9.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Oxford** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oxford** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance** at home**.

Oxford,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Dec |
Northampton |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Hull |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Dec |
Ipswich |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Swindon |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Wigan |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Crewe |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**AFC Wimbledon** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **AFC Wimbledon** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance** as a guest**.

AFC Wimbledon,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Peterboro |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Rochdale |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Doncaster |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Oxford** and the red line for guest team, **AFC Wimbledon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Oxford |
27% |
32% |
25% |
17% |

AFC Wimbledon |
27% |
37% |
24% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Oxford** to score **1.6 ** goals and **AFC Wimbledon** to score **0.86 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Oxford ** to win by **0.74** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Oxford** to score **1.32 ** goals and **AFC Wimbledon** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
3.97 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |

NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.99 |
3.52 |
2.62 |

2-3 goals |
2.40 |
4.21 |
2.88 |

4+ goals |
2.42 |
3.15 |
3.71 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.41 |
3.78 |
3.12 |

Un 1.5 |
2.99 |
3.52 |
2.62 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
6.22 |
2.83 |

Un 2.5 |
3.29 |
2.65 |
3.13 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.42 |
3.15 |
3.71 |

Un 3.5 |
2.58 |
3.95 |
2.79 |

Goal-Goal |
2.75 |
2.72 |
3.72 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
6.38 |
2.41 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
5.24 |
2.91 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
6.38 |
2.40 |

####
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###
Milton Keynes Dons vs Bristol Rvs at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Milton Keynes Dons** and **Bristol Rvs** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **26 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Milton Keynes Dons |
1.76 |
2.29 |
-13.2 |

Draw |
3.59 |
3.68 |
-0.7 |

Bristol Rvs |
4.51 |
3.42 |
7.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.99 |
2.12 |
-3.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
1.89 |
-2.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bristol Rvs (7.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance** at home**.

Milton Keynes Dons,** at home**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Plymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Peterboro |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Burton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Charlton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Shrewsbury |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Hull |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Sunderland |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Bristol Rvs** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bristol Rvs** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance** as a guest**.

Bristol Rvs,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Plymouth |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Gillingham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Wigan |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Swindon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Rochdale |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Milton Keynes Dons** and the red line for guest team, **Bristol Rvs. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Milton Keynes Dons |
23% |
35% |
25% |
17% |

Bristol Rvs |
33% |
36% |
21% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.61 ** goals and **Bristol Rvs** to score **0.82 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and the home team **Milton Keynes Dons ** to win by **0.79** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Bristol Rvs** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.68 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.37 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.68 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.37 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.37 |
3.63 |
3.32 |