# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Morecambe vs Grimsby at 26 December 2020**** Cambridge vs Leyton Orient at 26 December 2020**** Carlisle vs Bolton at 26 December 2020**** Cheltenham vs Stevenage at 26 December 2020**** Crawley Town vs Newport County at 26 December 2020**** Oldham vs Harrogate at 26 December 2020**** Port Vale vs Barrow at 26 December 2020**** Salford vs Walsall at 26 December 2020**** Scunthorpe vs Mansfield at 26 December 2020**** Southend vs Colchester at 26 December 2020**** Tranmere vs Bradford at 26 December 2020**** Exeter vs Forest Green at 26 December 2020**

###
Morecambe vs Grimsby at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Morecambe** and **Grimsby** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **26 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Morecambe |
1.85 |
2.17 |
-8.0 |

Draw |
3.62 |
3.70 |
-0.6 |

Grimsby |
4.01 |
3.69 |
2.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.10 |
-0.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.91 |
-5.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Grimsby (2.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Morecambe** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Morecambe** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance** at home**.

Morecambe,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Salford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Grimsby** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Grimsby** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance** as a guest**.

Grimsby,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Southend |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Dec |
Newport County |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Exeter |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Crawley Town |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Morecambe** and the red line for guest team, **Grimsby. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Morecambe |
21% |
36% |
24% |
19% |

Grimsby |
33% |
37% |
20% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Morecambe** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Grimsby** to score **0.85 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and the home team **Morecambe ** to win by **0.65** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Morecambe** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Grimsby** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Morecambe ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.73 |

1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.31 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.73 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.31 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.25 |
3.83 |
3.39 |

2-3 goals |
2.17 |
3.75 |
3.67 |

4+ goals |
2.11 |
3.52 |
4.14 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.15 |
3.67 |
3.81 |

Un 1.5 |
2.25 |
3.83 |
3.39 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
7.23 |
3.20 |

Un 2.5 |
2.65 |
2.57 |
4.28 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.11 |
3.52 |
4.14 |

Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
3.78 |
3.57 |

Goal-Goal |
2.66 |
2.64 |
4.08 |

No Goal |
1.81 |
6.76 |
3.33 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
5.95 |
3.05 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.76 |
3.19 |

####
Go to Top

###
Cambridge vs Leyton Orient at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cambridge** and **Leyton Orient** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **26 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cambridge |
2.28 |
2.34 |
-1.1 |

Draw |
3.27 |
3.62 |
-3.0 |

Leyton Orient |
3.11 |
3.38 |
-2.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.09 |
2.15 |
-1.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.87 |
-5.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cambridge** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cambridge** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance** at home**.

Cambridge,** at home**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Colchester |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Nov |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Leyton Orient** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leyton Orient** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance** as a guest**.

Leyton Orient,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Newport County |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Port Vale |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Harrogate |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cambridge** and the red line for guest team, **Leyton Orient. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cambridge |
23% |
39% |
21% |
18% |

Leyton Orient |
32% |
37% |
21% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cambridge** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Leyton Orient** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cambridge** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Leyton Orient** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.58 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.39 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.58 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.39 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.25 |
3.88 |
3.36 |

2-3 goals |
2.45 |
3.48 |
3.29 |

4+ goals |
2.21 |
3.68 |
3.62 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.37 |
3.54 |
3.39 |

Un 1.5 |
2.25 |
3.88 |
3.36 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
7.52 |
2.81 |

Un 2.5 |
2.80 |
2.50 |
4.12 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.21 |
3.68 |
3.62 |

Un 3.5 |
2.37 |
3.61 |
3.32 |

Goal-Goal |
2.92 |
2.58 |
3.70 |

No Goal |
1.91 |
6.60 |
3.08 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
6.19 |
2.70 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
6.60 |
3.02 |

####
Go to Top

###
Carlisle vs Bolton at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Carlisle** and **Bolton** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **26 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Carlisle |
1.69 |
2.14 |
-12.4 |

Draw |
3.74 |
3.75 |
-0.1 |

Bolton |
4.81 |
3.75 |
5.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.93 |
2.06 |
-3.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.94 |
-2.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bolton (5.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Carlisle** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Carlisle** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance** at home**.

Carlisle,** at home**, had 8 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 24 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Crawley Town |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Bolton** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bolton** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance** as a guest**.

Bolton,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Port Vale |
H |
3 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Southend |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Nov |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Stevenage |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Nov |
Salford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Carlisle** and the red line for guest team, **Bolton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Carlisle |
21% |
34% |
25% |
19% |

Bolton |
33% |
37% |
20% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Carlisle** to score **1.7 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **0.8 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Carlisle ** to win by **0.9** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Carlisle** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Carlisle ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.85 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.24 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.24 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.30 |
3.77 |
3.33 |

2-3 goals |
2.08 |
3.93 |
3.78 |

4+ goals |
2.13 |
3.42 |
4.21 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.09 |
3.75 |
3.91 |

Un 1.5 |
2.30 |
3.77 |
3.33 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
7.01 |
3.32 |

Un 2.5 |
2.61 |
2.61 |
4.26 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.42 |
4.21 |

Un 3.5 |
2.15 |
3.87 |
3.62 |

Goal-Goal |
2.58 |
2.68 |
4.19 |

No Goal |
1.80 |
6.83 |
3.34 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
5.80 |
3.17 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.96 |
6.83 |
3.20 |

####
Go to Top

###
Cheltenham vs Stevenage at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cheltenham** and **Stevenage** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **26 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cheltenham |
1.54 |
2.19 |
-19.3 |

Draw |
3.96 |
3.77 |
1.3 |

Stevenage |
6.02 |
3.58 |
11.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.07 |
-1.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.94 |
-5.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Stevenage (1.3 %, 11.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** at home**.

Cheltenham,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Salford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Exeter |
H |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Walsall |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Carlisle |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Stevenage** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stevenage** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance** as a guest**.

Stevenage,** as a guest**, had no wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 18.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Southend |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Port Vale |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Nov |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Grimsby |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cheltenham** and the red line for guest team, **Stevenage. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cheltenham |
23% |
31% |
28% |
18% |

Stevenage |
32% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.75 ** goals and **Stevenage** to score **0.66 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and the home team **Cheltenham ** to win by **1.09** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Stevenage** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Cheltenham ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.38 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.22 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.22 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.61 |
3.48 |
3.03 |