2020 12 25 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Morecambe vs Grimsby at 26 December 2020
Cambridge vs Leyton Orient at 26 December 2020
Carlisle vs Bolton at 26 December 2020
Cheltenham vs Stevenage at 26 December 2020
Crawley Town vs Newport County at 26 December 2020
Oldham vs Harrogate at 26 December 2020
Port Vale vs Barrow at 26 December 2020
Salford vs Walsall at 26 December 2020
Scunthorpe vs Mansfield at 26 December 2020
Southend vs Colchester at 26 December 2020
Tranmere vs Bradford at 26 December 2020
Exeter vs Forest Green at 26 December 2020


Morecambe vs Grimsby at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Morecambe and Grimsby for League Two (England), which will take place on 26 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Morecambe

1.85

2.17

-8.0

Draw

3.62

3.70

-0.6

Grimsby

4.01

3.69

2.2

Over 2.5

2.08

2.10

-0.5

Under 2.5

1.72

1.91

-5.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Grimsby (2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Morecambe in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Morecambe in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance at home.
Morecambe, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Colchester

A

2

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Leyton Orient

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Harrogate

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Newport County

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Dec

Barrow

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Salford

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Scunthorpe

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Stevenage

H

1

1

D

U

G


Grimsby in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Grimsby in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance as a guest.
Grimsby, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Dec

Bradford

H

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Scunthorpe

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Southend

A

1

3

L

O

G

12 Dec

Mansfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Dec

Newport County

H

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Colchester

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Dec

Exeter

H

1

4

L

O

G

24 Nov

Crawley Town

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Morecambe and the red line for guest team, Grimsby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Morecambe

21%

36%

24%

19%

Grimsby

33%

37%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Morecambe to score 1.5 goals and Grimsby to score 0.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Morecambe to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Morecambe to score 1.41 goals and Grimsby to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Morecambe to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.73

1

5.05

2-3

2.00

2

3.94

4+

4.31

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.73

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.10

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.25

3.83

3.39

2-3 goals

2.17

3.75

3.67

4+ goals

2.11

3.52

4.14

Ov 1.5

2.15

3.67

3.81

Un 1.5

2.25

3.83

3.39

Ov 2.5

1.82

7.23

3.20

Un 2.5

2.65

2.57

4.28

Ov 3.5

2.11

3.52

4.14

Un 3.5

2.20

3.78

3.57

Goal-Goal

2.66

2.64

4.08

No Goal

1.81

6.76

3.33

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.98

5.95

3.05

NG+Un 2.5

1.97

6.76

3.19


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cambridge vs Leyton Orient at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Cambridge and Leyton Orient for League Two (England), which will take place on 26 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cambridge

2.28

2.34

-1.1

Draw

3.27

3.62

-3.0

Leyton Orient

3.11

3.38

-2.6

Over 2.5

2.09

2.15

-1.3

Under 2.5

1.71

1.87

-5.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cambridge in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cambridge in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance at home.
Cambridge, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Bradford

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Colchester

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Forest Green

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Oldham

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Mansfield

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Nov

Cheltenham

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Barrow

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Salford

H

2

1

W

O

G


Leyton Orient in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leyton Orient in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance as a guest.
Leyton Orient, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Crawley Town

H

1

2

L

O

G

15 Dec

Morecambe

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Newport County

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Scunthorpe

A

0

2

L

U

N

28 Nov

Port Vale

A

3

2

W

O

G

24 Nov

Bradford

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Harrogate

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Nov

Colchester

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cambridge and the red line for guest team, Leyton Orient.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cambridge

23%

39%

21%

18%

Leyton Orient

32%

37%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cambridge to score 1.3 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cambridge to score 1.34 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.58

1

4.83

2-3

2.02

2

3.91

4+

4.39

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.58

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.39

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.25

3.88

3.36

2-3 goals

2.45

3.48

3.29

4+ goals

2.21

3.68

3.62

Ov 1.5

2.37

3.54

3.39

Un 1.5

2.25

3.88

3.36

Ov 2.5

1.96

7.52

2.81

Un 2.5

2.80

2.50

4.12

Ov 3.5

2.21

3.68

3.62

Un 3.5

2.37

3.61

3.32

Goal-Goal

2.92

2.58

3.70

No Goal

1.91

6.60

3.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.13

6.19

2.70

NG+Un 2.5

2.06

6.60

3.02


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Carlisle vs Bolton at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Carlisle and Bolton for League Two (England), which will take place on 26 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Carlisle

1.69

2.14

-12.4

Draw

3.74

3.75

-0.1

Bolton

4.81

3.75

5.9

Over 2.5

1.93

2.06

-3.3

Under 2.5

1.85

1.94

-2.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bolton (5.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Carlisle in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance at home.
Carlisle, at home, had 8 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 24 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Forest Green

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Mansfield

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Stevenage

H

4

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Bradford

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Salford

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Tranmere

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Crawley Town

A

3

0

W

O

N

14 Nov

Cheltenham

H

1

2

L

O

G


Bolton in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance as a guest.
Bolton, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Tranmere

H

0

3

L

O

N

15 Dec

Cheltenham

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Walsall

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Port Vale

H

3

6

L

O

G

28 Nov

Southend

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Nov

Scunthorpe

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Stevenage

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Nov

Salford

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Carlisle and the red line for guest team, Bolton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Carlisle

21%

34%

25%

19%

Bolton

33%

37%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.7 goals and Bolton to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Carlisle to win by 0.9 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.43 goals and Bolton to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Carlisle to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.85

1

5.24

2-3

1.99

2

3.92

4+

4.24

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.85

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.24

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.30

3.77

3.33

2-3 goals

2.08

3.93

3.78

4+ goals

2.13

3.42

4.21

Ov 1.5

2.09

3.75

3.91

Un 1.5

2.30

3.77

3.33

Ov 2.5

1.80

7.01

3.32

Un 2.5

2.61

2.61

4.26

Ov 3.5

2.13

3.42

4.21

Un 3.5

2.15

3.87

3.62

Goal-Goal

2.58

2.68

4.19

No Goal

1.80

6.83

3.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.95

5.80

3.17

NG+Un 2.5

1.96

6.83

3.20


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Cheltenham vs Stevenage at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Cheltenham and Stevenage for League Two (England), which will take place on 26 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cheltenham

1.54

2.19

-19.3

Draw

3.96

3.77

1.3

Stevenage

6.02

3.58

11.3

Over 2.5

2.02

2.07

-1.2

Under 2.5

1.77

1.94

-5.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Stevenage (1.3 %, 11.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cheltenham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance at home.
Cheltenham, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Barrow

A

0

3

L

O

N

15 Dec

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Salford

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Exeter

H

5

3

W

O

G

01 Dec

Bradford

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Cambridge

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Walsall

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Nov

Carlisle

A

2

1

W

O

G


Stevenage in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stevenage in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance as a guest.
Stevenage, as a guest, had no wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 18.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Dec

Carlisle

A

0

4

L

O

N

05 Dec

Southend

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Dec

Walsall

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Port Vale

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Bolton

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Nov

Morecambe

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Colchester

A

1

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Grimsby

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cheltenham and the red line for guest team, Stevenage.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cheltenham

23%

31%

28%

18%

Stevenage

32%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.75 goals and Stevenage to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Cheltenham to win by 1.09 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.4 goals and Stevenage to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Cheltenham to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.83

1

5.38

2-3

1.98

2

3.92

4+

4.22

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.83

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.22

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

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if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.61

3.48

3.03