# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace at 26 December 2020**** Fulham vs Southampton at 26 December 2020**** Leicester vs Man United at 26 December 2020**** Man City vs Newcastle at 26 December 2020**** Sheffield United vs Everton at 26 December 2020**** Arsenal vs Chelsea at 26 December 2020**** Leeds vs Burnley at 27 December 2020**** Liverpool vs West Brom at 27 December 2020**** West Ham vs Brighton at 27 December 2020**** Wolves vs Tottenham at 27 December 2020**

###
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Aston Villa** and **Crystal Palace** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **26 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Aston Villa |
1.94 |
1.90 |
1.1 |

Draw |
3.75 |
3.85 |
-0.7 |

Crystal Palace |
3.80 |
4.67 |
-4.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.77 |
2.02 |
-7.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.06 |
1.98 |
2.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Aston Villa, Under 2.5 (1.1 %, 2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Aston Villa** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aston Villa** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance** at home**.

Aston Villa,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
West Brom |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Dec |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Nov |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Arsenal |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Southampton |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Oct |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**Crystal Palace** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crystal Palace** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance** as a guest**.

Crystal Palace,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
7 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Dec |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
West Brom |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Newcastle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Nov |
Burnley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Leeds |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Oct |
Wolves |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Aston Villa** and the red line for guest team, **Crystal Palace. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Aston Villa |
17% |
42% |
7% |
34% |

Crystal Palace |
39% |
36% |
16% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Aston Villa** to score **1.67 ** goals and **Crystal Palace** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and the home team **Aston Villa ** to win by **0.65** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Aston Villa** to score **1.57 ** goals and **Crystal Palace** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Aston Villa ** to win by **0.63** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.38 |

1 |
4.37 |
2-3 |
2.23 |

2 |
4.78 |
4+ |
3.91 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
5.95 |
Un 1.5 |
3.38 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
37.04 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.91 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.78 |
4.42 |
4.70 |

2-3 goals |
2.48 |
2.89 |
4.00 |

4+ goals |
1.43 |
6.74 |
6.56 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.96 |
3.65 |
4.66 |

Un 1.5 |
1.78 |
4.42 |
4.70 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.48 |
13.03 |
4.02 |

Un 2.5 |
2.63 |
2.27 |
5.55 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.43 |
6.74 |
6.56 |

Un 3.5 |
2.14 |
3.35 |
4.25 |

Goal-Goal |
2.49 |
2.62 |
4.63 |

No Goal |
1.53 |
7.39 |
4.71 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
9.21 |
3.21 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
7.39 |
3.85 |

####
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###
Fulham vs Southampton at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Fulham** and **Southampton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **26 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Fulham |
3.19 |
3.47 |
-2.5 |

Draw |
3.32 |
3.79 |
-3.7 |

Southampton |
2.32 |
2.23 |
1.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.04 |
-2.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.96 |
-3.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Southampton (1.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Fulham** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fulham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance** at home**.

Fulham,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Dec |
Brighton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Man City |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Nov |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Everton |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
West Ham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Nov |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Southampton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southampton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance** as a guest**.

Southampton,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Man City |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Sheffield United |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

07 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Man United |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Nov |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Nov |
Newcastle |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Aston Villa |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Fulham** and the red line for guest team, **Southampton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Fulham |
33% |
37% |
16% |
14% |

Southampton |
24% |
32% |
24% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Fulham** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Southampton** to score **1.38 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.28** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Fulham** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Southampton** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.68 |

1 |
5.15 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
3.97 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.68 |

5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |

6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
1.97 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.09 |
3.49 |
2.57 |

2-3 goals |
3.88 |
4.01 |
2.03 |

4+ goals |
3.27 |
3.76 |
2.33 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.65 |
3.92 |
2.13 |

Un 1.5 |
3.09 |
3.49 |
2.57 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.04 |
7.36 |
1.87 |

Un 2.5 |
4.03 |
2.58 |
2.75 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.27 |
3.76 |
2.33 |

Un 3.5 |
3.55 |
3.80 |
2.20 |

Goal-Goal |
3.97 |
2.75 |
2.60 |

No Goal |
3.08 |
6.27 |
1.94 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.05 |
5.87 |
1.99 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.09 |
6.27 |
2.10 |

####
Go to Top

###
Leicester vs Man United at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leicester** and **Man United** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **26 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leicester |
3.01 |
2.75 |
3.1 |

Draw |
3.55 |
3.73 |
-1.4 |

Man United |
2.32 |
2.71 |
-6.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.99 |
-9.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.01 |
4.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Leicester, Under 2.5 (3.1 %, 4.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leicester** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leicester** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Leicester’s performance** at home**.

Leicester,** at home**, had 3 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leicester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Tottenham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Everton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Brighton |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Sheffield United |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Nov |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Liverpool |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

08 Nov |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Nov |
Leeds |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Man United** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man United** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance** as a guest**.

Man United,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Leeds |
H |
6 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Dec |
Sheffield United |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Man City |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
West Ham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Southampton |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
West Brom |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Everton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leicester** and the red line for guest team, **Man United. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leicester |
28% |
39% |
8% |
25% |

Man United |
28% |
34% |
22% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leicester** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Man United** to score **1.55 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.83** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.27** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leicester** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Man United** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.55 |

1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
2.25 |

2 |
4.63 |
4+ |
3.66 |

3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
3.55 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
24.39 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.66 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.64 |
3.57 |
2.94 |

2-3 goals |
3.76 |
3.39 |
2.28 |

4+ goals |
1.98 |
4.71 |
3.55 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.80 |
3.79 |
2.64 |

Un 1.5 |
2.64 |
3.57 |
2.94 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
8.64 |
2.40 |

Un 2.5 |
3.86 |
2.37 |
3.13 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.98 |
4.71 |
3.55 |

Un 3.5 |
3.23 |
3.46 |
2.49 |

Goal-Goal |
3.13 |
2.73 |
3.19 |

No Goal |
2.44 |
6.11 |
2.34 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
6.64 |
2.38 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.84 |
6.11 |
2.31 |

####
Go to Top

###
Man City vs Newcastle at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Man City** and **Newcastle** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **26 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Man City |
1.12 |
1.70 |
-30.5 |

Draw |
9.31 |
4.35 |
12.2 |

Newcastle |
23.28 |
5.46 |
14.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.36 |
1.88 |
-20.3 |

Under 2.5 |
3.14 |
2.14 |
14.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Newcastle, Under 2.5 (12.2 %, 14 %, 14.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Man City** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man City** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance** at home**.

Man City,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Southampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
West Brom |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Man United |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Fulham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Burnley |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Newcastle** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newcastle** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance** as a guest**.

Newcastle,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Dec |
Leeds |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Crystal Palace |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Nov |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Everton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Man City** and the red line for guest team, **Newcastle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Man City |
16% |
27% |
26% |
30% |

Newcastle |
40% |
36% |
16% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Man City** to score **3.2 ** goals and **Newcastle** to score **0.33 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.53** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **2.87** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Man City** to score **1.7 ** goals and **Newcastle** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **0.79** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
4.24 |

1 |
5.88 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
3.83 |

3 |
3.68 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
4.24 |

5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.14 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |