2020 12 25 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace at 26 December 2020
Fulham vs Southampton at 26 December 2020
Leicester vs Man United at 26 December 2020
Man City vs Newcastle at 26 December 2020
Sheffield United vs Everton at 26 December 2020
Arsenal vs Chelsea at 26 December 2020
Leeds vs Burnley at 27 December 2020
Liverpool vs West Brom at 27 December 2020
West Ham vs Brighton at 27 December 2020
Wolves vs Tottenham at 27 December 2020


Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Aston Villa and Crystal Palace for Premier League (England), which will take place on 26 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aston Villa

1.94

1.90

1.1

Draw

3.75

3.85

-0.7

Crystal Palace

3.80

4.67

-4.9

Over 2.5

1.77

2.02

-7.0

Under 2.5

2.06

1.98

2.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aston Villa, Under 2.5 (1.1 %, 2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Aston Villa in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aston Villa in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance at home.
Aston Villa, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

West Brom

A

3

0

W

O

N

17 Dec

Burnley

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Wolves

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Nov

West Ham

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Brighton

H

1

2

L

O

G

08 Nov

Arsenal

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Southampton

H

3

4

L

O

G

23 Oct

Leeds

H

0

3

L

O

N


Crystal Palace in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crystal Palace in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance as a guest.
Crystal Palace, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Liverpool

H

0

7

L

O

N

16 Dec

West Ham

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Tottenham

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

West Brom

A

5

1

W

O

G

27 Nov

Newcastle

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Nov

Burnley

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Leeds

H

4

1

W

O

G

30 Oct

Wolves

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aston Villa and the red line for guest team, Crystal Palace.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aston Villa

17%

42%

7%

34%

Crystal Palace

39%

36%

16%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.67 goals and Crystal Palace to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Aston Villa to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.57 goals and Crystal Palace to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Aston Villa to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.38

1

4.37

2-3

2.23

2

4.78

4+

3.91

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

5.95

Un 1.5

3.38

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.78

4.42

4.70

2-3 goals

2.48

2.89

4.00

4+ goals

1.43

6.74

6.56

Ov 1.5

1.96

3.65

4.66

Un 1.5

1.78

4.42

4.70

Ov 2.5

1.48

13.03

4.02

Un 2.5

2.63

2.27

5.55

Ov 3.5

1.43

6.74

6.56

Un 3.5

2.14

3.35

4.25

Goal-Goal

2.49

2.62

4.63

No Goal

1.53

7.39

4.71

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.72

9.21

3.21

NG+Un 2.5

1.82

7.39

3.85


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Fulham vs Southampton at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Fulham and Southampton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 26 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Fulham

3.19

3.47

-2.5

Draw

3.32

3.79

-3.7

Southampton

2.32

2.23

1.7

Over 2.5

1.96

2.04

-2.0

Under 2.5

1.85

1.96

-3.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Southampton (1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Fulham in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fulham in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance at home.
Fulham, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Newcastle

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Brighton

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Dec

Liverpool

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Man City

A

0

2

L

U

N

30 Nov

Leicester

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Everton

H

2

3

L

O

G

07 Nov

West Ham

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Nov

West Brom

H

2

0

W

U

N


Southampton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southampton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance as a guest.
Southampton, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Man City

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Dec

Arsenal

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Sheffield United

H

3

0

W

O

N

07 Dec

Brighton

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Man United

H

2

3

L

O

G

23 Nov

Wolves

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Nov

Newcastle

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Aston Villa

A

4

3

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fulham and the red line for guest team, Southampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Fulham

33%

37%

16%

14%

Southampton

24%

32%

24%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fulham to score 1.1 goals and Southampton to score 1.38 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fulham to score 1.11 goals and Southampton to score 1.41 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.68

1

5.15

2-3

2.10

2

4.24

4+

3.97

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.68

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.09

3.49

2.57

2-3 goals

3.88

4.01

2.03

4+ goals

3.27

3.76

2.33

Ov 1.5

3.65

3.92

2.13

Un 1.5

3.09

3.49

2.57

Ov 2.5

3.04

7.36

1.87

Un 2.5

4.03

2.58

2.75

Ov 3.5

3.27

3.76

2.33

Un 3.5

3.55

3.80

2.20

Goal-Goal

3.97

2.75

2.60

No Goal

3.08

6.27

1.94

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.05

5.87

1.99

NG+Un 2.5

3.09

6.27

2.10


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Leicester vs Man United at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Leicester and Man United for Premier League (England), which will take place on 26 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leicester

3.01

2.75

3.1

Draw

3.55

3.73

-1.4

Man United

2.32

2.71

-6.2

Over 2.5

1.68

1.99

-9.3

Under 2.5

2.20

2.01

4.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Leicester, Under 2.5 (3.1 %, 4.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leicester in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leicester in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Leicester’s performance at home.
Leicester, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leicester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Tottenham

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Dec

Everton

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Brighton

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Dec

Sheffield United

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Nov

Fulham

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Liverpool

A

0

3

L

O

N

08 Nov

Wolves

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Nov

Leeds

A

4

1

W

O

G


Man United in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man United in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance as a guest.
Man United, as a guest, had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Leeds

H

6

2

W

O

G

17 Dec

Sheffield United

A

3

2

W

O

G

12 Dec

Man City

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

West Ham

A

3

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Southampton

A

3

2

W

O

G

21 Nov

West Brom

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Everton

A

3

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Arsenal

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leicester and the red line for guest team, Man United.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leicester

28%

39%

8%

25%

Man United

28%

34%

22%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leicester to score 1.28 goals and Man United to score 1.55 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leicester to score 1.29 goals and Man United to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.55

1

4.93

2-3

2.25

2

4.63

4+

3.66

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.06

Un 1.5

3.55

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

24.39

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

3.66

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.64

3.57

2.94

2-3 goals

3.76

3.39

2.28

4+ goals

1.98

4.71

3.55

Ov 1.5

2.80

3.79

2.64

Un 1.5

2.64

3.57

2.94

Ov 2.5

2.14

8.64

2.40

Un 2.5

3.86

2.37

3.13

Ov 3.5

1.98

4.71

3.55

Un 3.5

3.23

3.46

2.49

Goal-Goal

3.13

2.73

3.19

No Goal

2.44

6.11

2.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.33

6.64

2.38

NG+Un 2.5

2.84

6.11

2.31


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Man City vs Newcastle at 26 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Man City and Newcastle for Premier League (England), which will take place on 26 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Man City

1.12

1.70

-30.5

Draw

9.31

4.35

12.2

Newcastle

23.28

5.46

14.0

Over 2.5

1.36

1.88

-20.3

Under 2.5

3.14

2.14

14.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Newcastle, Under 2.5 (12.2 %, 14 %, 14.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Man City in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance at home.
Man City, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Southampton

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

West Brom

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Man United

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Fulham

H

2

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Burnley

H

5

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Tottenham

A

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Liverpool

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Sheffield United

A

1

0

W

U

N


Newcastle in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance as a guest.
Newcastle, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Fulham

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Leeds

A

2

5

L

O

G

12 Dec

West Brom

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Nov

Crystal Palace

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Chelsea

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Nov

Southampton

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

Everton

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Wolves

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Man City and the red line for guest team, Newcastle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Man City

16%

27%

26%

30%

Newcastle

40%

36%

16%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man City to score 3.2 goals and Newcastle to score 0.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.53 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 2.87 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man City to score 1.7 goals and Newcastle to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

4.24

1

5.88

2-3

1.98

2

4.31

4+

3.83

3

3.68

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.85

Un 1.5

4.24

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.14

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-