2020 12 25 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Belenenses vs Sp Lisbon at 27 December 2020
Famalicao vs Gil Vicente at 27 December 2020
Farense vs Pacos Ferreira at 27 December 2020
Nacional vs Tondela at 27 December 2020
Rio Ave vs Maritimo at 28 December 2020
Boavista vs Sp Braga at 28 December 2020


Belenenses vs Sp Lisbon at 27 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Belenenses and Sp Lisbon for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 27 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Belenenses

6.61

4.08

9.4

Draw

4.24

3.80

2.7

Sp Lisbon

1.47

2.03

-18.8

Over 2.5

1.82

1.99

-4.7

Under 2.5

1.97

2.01

-1.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Belenenses, Draw (9.4 %, 2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Belenenses in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Belenenses in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Belenenses’s performance at home.
Belenenses, at home, had one win, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Belenenses was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Maritimo

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Sp Braga

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Boavista

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Nov

Rio Ave

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Farense

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Oct

Benfica

A

0

2

L

U

N

18 Oct

Moreirense

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Oct

Nacional

A

0

0

D

U

N


Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance as a guest.
Sp Lisbon, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 13 points, 86.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Farense

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Famalicao

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Moreirense

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Nov

Guimaraes

A

4

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Tondela

H

4

0

W

O

N

28 Oct

Gil Vicente

H

3

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Santa Clara

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Porto

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Belenenses and the red line for guest team, Sp Lisbon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Belenenses

35%

37%

18%

10%

Sp Lisbon

19%

38%

16%

27%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Belenenses to score 0.66 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.3 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Belenenses to score 1.03 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.52 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.38

0-1

3.75

1

4.95

2-3

2.12

2

4.33

4+

3.83

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

5.92

Un 1.5

3.75

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

2.13

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.81

4.11

2.02

2-3 goals

3.93

3.32

2.25

4+ goals

4.75

4.58

1.75

Ov 1.5

4.19

3.68

2.04

Un 1.5

3.81

4.11

2.02

Ov 2.5

3.54

8.81

1.66

Un 2.5

4.83

2.41

2.65

Ov 3.5

4.75

4.58

1.75

Un 3.5

3.89

3.57

2.16

Goal-Goal

4.32

2.67

2.54

No Goal

3.84

7.22

1.66

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.16

6.82

1.86

NG+Un 2.5

3.46

7.22

1.89


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Famalicao vs Gil Vicente at 27 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Famalicao and Gil Vicente for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 27 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Famalicao

2.46

2.98

-7.1

Draw

2.99

3.66

-6.1

Gil Vicente

3.08

2.56

6.6

Over 2.5

2.19

2.38

-3.6

Under 2.5

1.66

1.73

-2.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Gil Vicente (6.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Famalicao in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Famalicao in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Famalicao’s performance at home.
Famalicao, at home, had one win, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Famalicao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Dec

Portimonense

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Sp Lisbon

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Nov

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Sp Braga

A

0

1

L

U

N

25 Oct

Boavista

H

2

2

D

O

G

18 Oct

Farense

A

3

3

D

O

G

04 Oct

Rio Ave

H

1

1

D

U

G


Gil Vicente in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gil Vicente in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance as a guest.
Gil Vicente, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Benfica

H

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Moreirense

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Nov

Rio Ave

H

2

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Nacional

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Nov

Guimaraes

H

1

2

L

O

G

28 Oct

Sp Lisbon

A

1

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

Porto

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Tondela

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Famalicao and the red line for guest team, Gil Vicente.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Famalicao

34%

37%

18%

11%

Gil Vicente

35%

24%

30%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Famalicao to score 1.22 goals and Gil Vicente to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Famalicao to score 1.07 goals and Gil Vicente to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.55

0-1

3.07

1

4.78

2-3

2.05

2

3.94

4+

5.29

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

8.13

Un 1.5

3.07

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.37

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.30

Ov 3.5

5.29

NoG

1.76

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.53

2.79

4.08

2-3 goals

3.31

5.53

1.93

4+ goals

3.10

2.78

3.15

Ov 1.5

3.25

4.33

2.17

Un 1.5

2.53

2.79

4.08

Ov 2.5

2.93

6.21

2.01

Un 2.5

3.01

2.83

3.19

Ov 3.5

3.10

2.78

3.15

Un 3.5

2.95

3.97

2.45

Goal-Goal

4.13

2.78

2.51

No Goal

2.45

4.85

2.59

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.30

5.09

2.00

NG+Un 2.5

2.55

4.85

2.70


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Farense vs Pacos Ferreira at 27 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Farense and Pacos Ferreira for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 27 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Farense

2.77

2.60

2.4

Draw

3.17

3.60

-3.8

Pacos Ferreira

2.57

2.96

-5.1

Over 2.5

2.28

2.07

4.4

Under 2.5

1.61

1.93

-10.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Farense, Over 2.5 (2.4 %, 4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Farense in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Farense in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance at home.
Farense, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Sp Lisbon

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Dec

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Sp Braga

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Boavista

H

3

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Belenenses

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Oct

Rio Ave

H

0

1

L

U

N

18 Oct

Famalicao

H

3

3

D

O

G

04 Oct

Benfica

A

2

3

L

O

G


Pacos Ferreira in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pacos Ferreira in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance as a guest.
Pacos Ferreira, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Boavista

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Benfica

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Dec

Moreirense

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Nov

Famalicao

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Oct

Porto

H

3

2

W

O

G

24 Oct

Nacional

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Santa Clara

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Oct

Guimaraes

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Farense and the red line for guest team, Pacos Ferreira.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Farense

26%

34%

22%

17%

Pacos Ferreira

25%

45%

12%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Farense to score 1.07 goals and Pacos Ferreira to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Farense to score 1.3 goals and Pacos Ferreira to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.66

1

4.85

2-3

2.11

2

4.12

4+

3.97

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.66

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

33.33

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

1.82

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.22

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.14

4.07

2.29

2-3 goals

2.38

3.06

3.95

4+ goals

2.60

4.50

2.55

Ov 1.5

2.45

3.44

3.32

Un 1.5

3.14

4.07

2.29

Ov 2.5

2.01

8.63

2.58

Un 2.5

3.61

2.32

3.42

Ov 3.5

2.60

4.50

2.55

Un 3.5

2.61

3.36

3.13

Goal-Goal

2.78

2.60

3.91

No Goal

2.42

6.73

2.28

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.99

7.02

2.81

NG+Un 2.5

2.52

6.73

2.39


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Nacional vs Tondela at 27 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Nacional and Tondela for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 27 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nacional

2.06

3.57

-20.5

Draw

3.22

3.72

-4.2

Tondela

3.71

2.22

18.1

Over 2.5

2.15

2.66

-8.9

Under 2.5

1.68

1.60

3.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Tondela, Under 2.5 (18.1 %, 3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nacional in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nacional in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nacional’s performance at home.
Nacional, at home, had one win, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nacional was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Porto

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Dec

Santa Clara

H

1

3

L

O

G

29 Nov

Portimonense

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Gil Vicente

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Maritimo

A

0

0

D

U

N

24 Oct

Pacos Ferreira

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Sp Braga

A

1

2

L

O

G

04 Oct

Belenenses

H

0

0

D

U

N


Tondela in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tondela in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance as a guest.
Tondela, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 8.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Moreirense

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Porto

A

3

4

L

O

G

27 Nov

Guimaraes

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Santa Clara

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Sp Lisbon

A

0

4

L

O

N

23 Oct

Portimonense

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Gil Vicente

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Oct

Sp Braga

H

0

4

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nacional and the red line for guest team, Tondela.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nacional

41%

38%

15%

6%

Tondela

40%

10%

42%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nacional to score 1.38 goals and Tondela to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the home team Nacional to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nacional to score 0.86 goals and Tondela to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.05 goals in the game and the guest team Tondela to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.17

0-1

2.83

1

5.24

2-3

1.99

2

3.70

4+

6.90

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.55

4

9.71

Un 1.5

2.83

5

27.03

Ov 2.5

2.65

6+

200.00

Un 2.5

1.61

Gg

2.80

Ov 3.5

6.90

NoG

1.56

Un 3.5

1.17

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-