# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Belenenses vs Sp Lisbon at 27 December 2020**** Famalicao vs Gil Vicente at 27 December 2020**** Farense vs Pacos Ferreira at 27 December 2020**** Nacional vs Tondela at 27 December 2020**** Rio Ave vs Maritimo at 28 December 2020**** Boavista vs Sp Braga at 28 December 2020**

###
Belenenses vs Sp Lisbon at 27 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Belenenses** and **Sp Lisbon** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **27 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Belenenses |
6.61 |
4.08 |
9.4 |

Draw |
4.24 |
3.80 |
2.7 |

Sp Lisbon |
1.47 |
2.03 |
-18.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.99 |
-4.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.01 |
-1.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Belenenses, Draw (9.4 %, 2.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Belenenses** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Belenenses scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Belenenses** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Belenenses scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Belenenses’s performance** at home**.

Belenenses,** at home**, had one win, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Belenenses scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Belenenses was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Maritimo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Boavista |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Nov |
Rio Ave |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Farense |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Oct |
Benfica |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Oct |
Moreirense |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Oct |
Nacional |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Sp Lisbon** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sp Lisbon** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance** as a guest**.

Sp Lisbon,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 13 points, 86.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Farense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Famalicao |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Moreirense |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Guimaraes |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Tondela |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

28 Oct |
Gil Vicente |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Santa Clara |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Porto |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Belenenses** and the red line for guest team, **Sp Lisbon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Belenenses |
35% |
37% |
18% |
10% |

Sp Lisbon |
19% |
38% |
16% |
27% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Belenenses** to score **0.66 ** goals and **Sp Lisbon** to score **1.96 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and the guest team **Sp Lisbon ** to win by **1.3** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Belenenses** to score **1.03 ** goals and **Sp Lisbon** to score **1.52 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and the guest team **Sp Lisbon ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.38 |
0-1 |
3.75 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.12 |

2 |
4.33 |
4+ |
3.83 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
5.92 |
Un 1.5 |
3.75 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |

NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.81 |
4.11 |
2.02 |

2-3 goals |
3.93 |
3.32 |
2.25 |

4+ goals |
4.75 |
4.58 |
1.75 |

Ov 1.5 |
4.19 |
3.68 |
2.04 |

Un 1.5 |
3.81 |
4.11 |
2.02 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.54 |
8.81 |
1.66 |

Un 2.5 |
4.83 |
2.41 |
2.65 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.75 |
4.58 |
1.75 |

Un 3.5 |
3.89 |
3.57 |
2.16 |

Goal-Goal |
4.32 |
2.67 |
2.54 |

No Goal |
3.84 |
7.22 |
1.66 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.16 |
6.82 |
1.86 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.46 |
7.22 |
1.89 |

####
Go to Top

###
Famalicao vs Gil Vicente at 27 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Famalicao** and **Gil Vicente** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **27 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Famalicao |
2.46 |
2.98 |
-7.1 |

Draw |
2.99 |
3.66 |
-6.1 |

Gil Vicente |
3.08 |
2.56 |
6.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.38 |
-3.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.73 |
-2.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Gil Vicente (6.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Famalicao** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Famalicao scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Famalicao** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Famalicao scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Famalicao’s performance** at home**.

Famalicao,** at home**, had one win, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Famalicao** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Famalicao was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

18 Dec |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Nov |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Boavista |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Farense |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Rio Ave |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Gil Vicente** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Gil Vicente** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance** as a guest**.

Gil Vicente,** as a guest**, had no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 13.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Benfica |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Moreirense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Nov |
Rio Ave |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Nacional |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Guimaraes |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Oct |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Porto |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Tondela |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Famalicao** and the red line for guest team, **Gil Vicente. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Famalicao |
34% |
37% |
18% |
11% |

Gil Vicente |
35% |
24% |
30% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Famalicao** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Gil Vicente** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Famalicao** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Gil Vicente** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.55 |
0-1 |
3.07 |

1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
5.29 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.48 |

4 |
8.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.07 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |

Gg |
2.30 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.29 |

NoG |
1.76 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.53 |
2.79 |
4.08 |

2-3 goals |
3.31 |
5.53 |
1.93 |

4+ goals |
3.10 |
2.78 |
3.15 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.25 |
4.33 |
2.17 |

Un 1.5 |
2.53 |
2.79 |
4.08 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.93 |
6.21 |
2.01 |

Un 2.5 |
3.01 |
2.83 |
3.19 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.10 |
2.78 |
3.15 |

Un 3.5 |
2.95 |
3.97 |
2.45 |

Goal-Goal |
4.13 |
2.78 |
2.51 |

No Goal |
2.45 |
4.85 |
2.59 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.30 |
5.09 |
2.00 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
4.85 |
2.70 |

####
Go to Top

###
Farense vs Pacos Ferreira at 27 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Farense** and **Pacos Ferreira** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **27 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Farense |
2.77 |
2.60 |
2.4 |

Draw |
3.17 |
3.60 |
-3.8 |

Pacos Ferreira |
2.57 |
2.96 |
-5.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.07 |
4.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.93 |
-10.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Farense, Over 2.5 (2.4 %, 4.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Farense** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Farense** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance** at home**.

Farense,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Dec |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Boavista |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Belenenses |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Oct |
Rio Ave |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Oct |
Famalicao |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Benfica |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Pacos Ferreira** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pacos Ferreira** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance** as a guest**.

Pacos Ferreira,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Boavista |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
Benfica |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Moreirense |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Nov |
Famalicao |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Oct |
Porto |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Nacional |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
Santa Clara |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Oct |
Guimaraes |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Farense** and the red line for guest team, **Pacos Ferreira. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Farense |
26% |
34% |
22% |
17% |

Pacos Ferreira |
25% |
45% |
12% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Farense** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Pacos Ferreira** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.06** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Farense** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Pacos Ferreira** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.66 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.97 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.66 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
33.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |

Gg |
1.82 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |

NoG |
2.22 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.14 |
4.07 |
2.29 |

2-3 goals |
2.38 |
3.06 |
3.95 |

4+ goals |
2.60 |
4.50 |
2.55 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.45 |
3.44 |
3.32 |

Un 1.5 |
3.14 |
4.07 |
2.29 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
8.63 |
2.58 |

Un 2.5 |
3.61 |
2.32 |
3.42 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.60 |
4.50 |
2.55 |

Un 3.5 |
2.61 |
3.36 |
3.13 |

Goal-Goal |
2.78 |
2.60 |
3.91 |

No Goal |
2.42 |
6.73 |
2.28 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
7.02 |
2.81 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.52 |
6.73 |
2.39 |

####
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###
Nacional vs Tondela at 27 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Nacional** and **Tondela** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **27 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Nacional |
2.06 |
3.57 |
-20.5 |

Draw |
3.22 |
3.72 |
-4.2 |

Tondela |
3.71 |
2.22 |
18.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.66 |
-8.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.60 |
3.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Tondela, Under 2.5 (18.1 %, 3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Nacional** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Nacional scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nacional** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Nacional scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nacional’s performance** at home**.

Nacional,** at home**, had one win, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Nacional scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nacional was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Porto |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Gil Vicente |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Maritimo |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Sp Braga |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Belenenses |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Tondela** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tondela** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance** as a guest**.

Tondela,** as a guest**, had no wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 8.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Moreirense |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Porto |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Guimaraes |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Santa Clara |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Oct |
Portimonense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Gil Vicente |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Oct |
Sp Braga |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Nacional** and the red line for guest team, **Tondela. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Nacional |
41% |
38% |
15% |
6% |

Tondela |
40% |
10% |
42% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Nacional** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Tondela** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and the home team **Nacional ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Nacional** to score **0.86 ** goals and **Tondela** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.05** goals in the game and the guest team **Tondela ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
6.17 |
0-1 |
2.83 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.70 |
4+ |
6.90 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.55 |

4 |
9.71 |
Un 1.5 |
2.83 |

5 |
27.03 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.65 |

6+ |
200.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.61 |

Gg |
2.80 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.90 |

NoG |
1.56 |
Un 3.5 |
1.17 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |