# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Frosinone vs Pordenone at 27 December 2020**** Venezia vs Salernitana at 27 December 2020**** Virtus Entella vs Pescara at 27 December 2020**** Reggiana vs Reggina at 27 December 2020**** Lecce vs Vicenza at 27 December 2020**** Cremonese vs Monza at 27 December 2020**** Cosenza vs Pisa at 27 December 2020**** Chievo vs Cittadella at 27 December 2020**** Ascoli vs Spal at 27 December 2020**** Brescia vs Empoli at 27 December 2020**

###
Frosinone vs Pordenone at 27 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Frosinone** and **Pordenone** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **27 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Frosinone |
2.12 |
2.54 |
-7.8 |

Draw |
3.06 |
3.12 |
-0.6 |

Pordenone |
3.65 |
3.51 |
1.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.75 |
-10.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.57 |
4.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Pordenone, Under 2.5 (1.1 %, 4.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Frosinone** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Frosinone** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance** at home**.

Frosinone,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Dec |
Cittadella |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Dec |
Salernitana |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Reggiana |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Lecce |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Chievo |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Brescia |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Nov |
Cosenza |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Monza |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Pordenone** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Pordenone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pordenone** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Pordenone** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance** as a guest**.

Pordenone,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Pordenone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Dec |
Cremonese |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Virtus Entella |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Brescia |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Pisa |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Dec |
Empoli |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Pescara |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Monza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Frosinone** and the red line for guest team, **Pordenone. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Frosinone |
26% |
44% |
18% |
12% |

Pordenone |
31% |
47% |
16% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Frosinone** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Pordenone** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and the home team **Frosinone ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Frosinone** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Pordenone** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
2.99 |

1 |
3.92 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.30 |
4+ |
6.49 |

3 |
4.78 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.50 |

4 |
8.70 |
Un 1.5 |
2.99 |

5 |
32.26 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.75 |

6+ |
125.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.57 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.49 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.18 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.47 |
4.23 |
2.78 |

2-3 goals |
2.83 |
2.49 |
4.10 |

4+ goals |
2.00 |
4.16 |
3.85 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.58 |
2.74 |
4.04 |

Un 1.5 |
2.47 |
4.23 |
2.78 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |
9.81 |
2.90 |

Un 2.5 |
3.32 |
2.24 |
3.98 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.00 |
4.16 |
3.85 |

Un 3.5 |
2.68 |
2.97 |
3.45 |

Goal-Goal |
3.16 |
2.12 |
4.72 |

No Goal |
2.11 |
6.14 |
2.76 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
8.35 |
2.83 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.14 |
2.69 |

####
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###
Venezia vs Salernitana at 27 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Venezia** and **Salernitana** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **27 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Venezia |
2.03 |
2.17 |
-3.2 |

Draw |
3.14 |
3.58 |
-3.9 |

Salernitana |
3.83 |
3.83 |
0.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.09 |
2.31 |
-4.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.76 |
-1.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Venezia** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Venezia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Venezia** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Venezia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance** at home**.

Venezia,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Venezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Dec |
Cosenza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Spal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Dec |
Reggina |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Dec |
Monza |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Lecce |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Ascoli |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Brescia |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Nov |
Virtus Entella |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Salernitana** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Salernitana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salernitana** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Salernitana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance** as a guest**.

Salernitana,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Salernitana scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Dec |
Virtus Entella |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Frosinone |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Lecce |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Brescia |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Cosenza |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Nov |
Cremonese |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Nov |
Spal |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Venezia** and the red line for guest team, **Salernitana. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Venezia |
24% |
34% |
28% |
15% |

Salernitana |
34% |
41% |
17% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Venezia** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Salernitana** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and the home team **Venezia ** to win by **0.51** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Venezia** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Salernitana** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and the home team **Venezia ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.42 |

1 |
4.72 |
2-3 |
1.94 |

2 |
3.64 |
4+ |
5.24 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.46 |
Un 1.5 |
3.42 |

5 |
21.74 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |

6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.24 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.54 |
3.65 |
3.01 |

2-3 goals |
1.98 |
3.69 |
4.45 |

4+ goals |
2.25 |
3.24 |
4.06 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.05 |
3.55 |
4.34 |

Un 1.5 |
2.54 |
3.65 |
3.01 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
7.32 |
3.51 |

Un 2.5 |
2.70 |
2.58 |
4.14 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.25 |
3.24 |
4.06 |

Un 3.5 |
2.15 |
3.67 |
3.79 |

Goal-Goal |
2.52 |
2.53 |
4.80 |

No Goal |
1.90 |
6.19 |
3.19 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
6.17 |
3.47 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
6.19 |
3.12 |

####
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###
Virtus Entella vs Pescara at 27 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Virtus Entella** and **Pescara** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **27 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Virtus Entella |
2.68 |
2.63 |
0.7 |

Draw |
2.94 |
3.57 |
-6.0 |

Pescara |
2.80 |
2.94 |
-1.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.17 |
-0.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.85 |
-5.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Virtus Entella (0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Virtus Entella** in the **last six** matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Virtus Entella** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance** at home**.

Virtus Entella,** at home**, had no wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 4.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Dec |
Salernitana |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Pordenone |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Monza |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Empoli |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Cremonese |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Nov |
Spal |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Ascoli |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Nov |
Venezia |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Pescara** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Pescara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pescara** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Pescara scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance** as a guest**.

Pescara,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Pescara scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Dec |
Brescia |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Monza |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Pisa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Vicenza |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Dec |
Ascoli |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Pordenone |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Spal |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Cittadella |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Virtus Entella** and the red line for guest team, **Pescara. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Virtus Entella |
27% |
34% |
29% |
11% |

Pescara |
28% |
40% |
21% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Virtus Entella** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Pescara** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.03** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Virtus Entella** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Pescara** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.66 |

1 |
5.03 |
2-3 |
1.94 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
4.65 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.66 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.65 |

NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.94 |
3.69 |
2.58 |

2-3 goals |
2.30 |
3.87 |
3.26 |

4+ goals |
3.36 |
2.95 |
2.76 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.53 |
3.54 |
3.09 |

Un 1.5 |
2.94 |
3.69 |
2.58 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.33 |
2.55 |

Un 2.5 |
3.13 |
2.61 |
3.36 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.36 |
2.95 |
2.76 |

Un 3.5 |
2.49 |
3.81 |
2.98 |

Goal-Goal |
2.98 |
2.59 |
3.60 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
6.35 |
2.42 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |
5.48 |
2.70 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.36 |
6.35 |
2.53 |

####
Go to Top

###
Reggiana vs Reggina at 27 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Reggiana** and **Reggina** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **27 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Reggiana |
2.61 |
2.32 |
4.8 |

Draw |
2.94 |
3.73 |
-7.2 |

Reggina |
2.86 |
3.33 |
-4.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
2.24 |
-5.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.81 |
-0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Reggiana (4.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Reggiana** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggiana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reggiana** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggiana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggiana’s performance** at home**.

Reggiana,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggiana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reggiana was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Dec |
Empoli |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Brescia |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Frosinone |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Cosenza |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Monza |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

29 Nov |
Cremonese |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Lecce |
A |
1 |
7 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Venezia |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Reggina** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggina scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reggina** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggina** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Reggina’s performance** as a guest**.

Reggina,** as a guest**, had no wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggina scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reggina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Dec |
Vicenza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Dec |
Venezia |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Dec |
Chievo |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Brescia |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Monza |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Pisa |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Empoli |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Reggiana** and the red line for guest team, **Reggina. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Reggiana |
21% |
47% |
14% |
18% |

Reggina |
38% |
29% |
20% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Reggiana** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Reggina** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Reggiana** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Reggina** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.14 |

1 |
4.18 |
2-3 |
2.14 |

2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
4.63 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.14 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.63 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |