2020 12 25 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Frosinone vs Pordenone at 27 December 2020
Venezia vs Salernitana at 27 December 2020
Virtus Entella vs Pescara at 27 December 2020
Reggiana vs Reggina at 27 December 2020
Lecce vs Vicenza at 27 December 2020
Cremonese vs Monza at 27 December 2020
Cosenza vs Pisa at 27 December 2020
Chievo vs Cittadella at 27 December 2020
Ascoli vs Spal at 27 December 2020
Brescia vs Empoli at 27 December 2020


Frosinone vs Pordenone at 27 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Frosinone and Pordenone for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 27 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Frosinone

2.12

2.54

-7.8

Draw

3.06

3.12

-0.6

Pordenone

3.65

3.51

1.1

Over 2.5

2.12

2.75

-10.8

Under 2.5

1.70

1.57

4.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pordenone, Under 2.5 (1.1 %, 4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Frosinone in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Frosinone in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance at home.
Frosinone, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Dec

Cittadella

A

0

1

L

U

N

18 Dec

Salernitana

H

0

0

D

U

N

15 Dec

Reggiana

A

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Lecce

A

2

2

D

O

G

05 Dec

Chievo

H

3

2

W

O

G

28 Nov

Brescia

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Nov

Cosenza

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Monza

A

0

2

L

U

N


Pordenone in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pordenone in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance as a guest.
Pordenone, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Dec

Cremonese

H

1

2

L

O

G

18 Dec

Virtus Entella

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Brescia

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Pisa

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Dec

Empoli

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Pescara

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Monza

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Chievo

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Frosinone and the red line for guest team, Pordenone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Frosinone

26%

44%

18%

12%

Pordenone

31%

47%

16%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.38 goals and Pordenone to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Frosinone to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.18 goals and Pordenone to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

2.99

1

3.92

2-3

1.95

2

3.30

4+

6.49

3

4.78

Ov 1.5

1.50

4

8.70

Un 1.5

2.99

5

32.26

Ov 2.5

2.75

6+

125.00

Un 2.5

1.57

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

6.49

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.18

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.47

4.23

2.78

2-3 goals

2.83

2.49

4.10

4+ goals

2.00

4.16

3.85

Ov 1.5

2.58

2.74

4.04

Un 1.5

2.47

4.23

2.78

Ov 2.5

1.81

9.81

2.90

Un 2.5

3.32

2.24

3.98

Ov 3.5

2.00

4.16

3.85

Un 3.5

2.68

2.97

3.45

Goal-Goal

3.16

2.12

4.72

No Goal

2.11

6.14

2.76

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.90

8.35

2.83

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

6.14

2.69


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Venezia vs Salernitana at 27 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Venezia and Salernitana for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 27 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Venezia

2.03

2.17

-3.2

Draw

3.14

3.58

-3.9

Salernitana

3.83

3.83

0.0

Over 2.5

2.09

2.31

-4.6

Under 2.5

1.72

1.76

-1.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Venezia in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance at home.
Venezia, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Dec

Cosenza

A

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Spal

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Dec

Reggina

A

2

1

W

O

G

11 Dec

Monza

H

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Lecce

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Ascoli

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Brescia

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Nov

Virtus Entella

A

2

0

W

U

N


Salernitana in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salernitana in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance as a guest.
Salernitana, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Dec

Virtus Entella

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Dec

Frosinone

A

0

0

D

U

N

15 Dec

Lecce

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Brescia

A

1

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

Cosenza

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Nov

Cremonese

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Nov

Spal

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Venezia and the red line for guest team, Salernitana.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Venezia

24%

34%

28%

15%

Salernitana

34%

41%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.43 goals and Salernitana to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Venezia to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.33 goals and Salernitana to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Venezia to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.42

1

4.72

2-3

1.94

2

3.64

4+

5.24

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.46

Un 1.5

3.42

5

21.74

Ov 2.5

2.31

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

5.24

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.54

3.65

3.01

2-3 goals

1.98

3.69

4.45

4+ goals

2.25

3.24

4.06

Ov 1.5

2.05

3.55

4.34

Un 1.5

2.54

3.65

3.01

Ov 2.5

1.73

7.32

3.51

Un 2.5

2.70

2.58

4.14

Ov 3.5

2.25

3.24

4.06

Un 3.5

2.15

3.67

3.79

Goal-Goal

2.52

2.53

4.80

No Goal

1.90

6.19

3.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.82

6.17

3.47

NG+Un 2.5

2.03

6.19

3.12


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Virtus Entella vs Pescara at 27 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Entella and Pescara for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 27 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Virtus Entella

2.68

2.63

0.7

Draw

2.94

3.57

-6.0

Pescara

2.80

2.94

-1.7

Over 2.5

2.16

2.17

-0.2

Under 2.5

1.67

1.85

-5.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Virtus Entella (0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Virtus Entella in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Virtus Entella in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance at home.
Virtus Entella, at home, had no wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 4.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Dec

Salernitana

A

1

2

L

O

G

18 Dec

Pordenone

H

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Monza

A

0

5

L

O

N

12 Dec

Empoli

H

2

5

L

O

G

05 Dec

Cremonese

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Nov

Spal

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Nov

Ascoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Nov

Venezia

H

0

2

L

U

N


Pescara in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pescara in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance as a guest.
Pescara, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Dec

Brescia

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Monza

H

3

2

W

O

G

15 Dec

Pisa

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Vicenza

H

2

3

L

O

G

04 Dec

Ascoli

A

2

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Pordenone

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Nov

Spal

A

0

2

L

U

N

08 Nov

Cittadella

H

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Virtus Entella and the red line for guest team, Pescara.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Virtus Entella

27%

34%

29%

11%

Pescara

28%

40%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1.16 goals and Pescara to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1.24 goals and Pescara to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.66

1

5.03

2-3

1.94

2

3.73

4+

4.65

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.66

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

4.65

NoG

2.13

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.94

3.69

2.58

2-3 goals

2.30

3.87

3.26

4+ goals

3.36

2.95

2.76

Ov 1.5

2.53

3.54

3.09

Un 1.5

2.94

3.69

2.58

Ov 2.5

2.22

6.33

2.55

Un 2.5

3.13

2.61

3.36

Ov 3.5

3.36

2.95

2.76

Un 3.5

2.49

3.81

2.98

Goal-Goal

2.98

2.59

3.60

No Goal

2.33

6.35

2.42

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.23

5.48

2.70

NG+Un 2.5

2.36

6.35

2.53


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Reggiana vs Reggina at 27 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Reggiana and Reggina for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 27 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reggiana

2.61

2.32

4.8

Draw

2.94

3.73

-7.2

Reggina

2.86

3.33

-4.9

Over 2.5

2.00

2.24

-5.4

Under 2.5

1.79

1.81

-0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reggiana (4.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reggiana in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggiana in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggiana’s performance at home.
Reggiana, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggiana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Dec

Empoli

A

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Brescia

A

1

3

L

O

G

15 Dec

Frosinone

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Cosenza

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Monza

H

3

0

W

O

N

29 Nov

Cremonese

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Lecce

A

1

7

L

O

G

08 Nov

Venezia

H

2

1

W

O

G


Reggina in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggina in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Reggina’s performance as a guest.
Reggina, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Dec

Vicenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Cittadella

H

1

3

L

O

G

14 Dec

Venezia

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 Dec

Chievo

A

0

3

L

O

N

05 Dec

Brescia

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Monza

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Nov

Pisa

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Empoli

A

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reggiana and the red line for guest team, Reggina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reggiana

21%

47%

14%

18%

Reggina

38%

29%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reggiana to score 1.25 goals and Reggina to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reggiana to score 1.29 goals and Reggina to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.14

1

4.18

2-3

2.14

2

4.24

4+

4.63

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.14

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-