2020 12 26 France’s LNB Pro A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Dijon vs Bourg at 26 December 2020
Le Mans vs Metropolitans 92 at 26 December 2020
Villeurbanne vs Gravelines at 26 December 2020
Boulazac Dordogne Pro vs Monaco at 26 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Dijon vs Bourg at 26 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Dijon and Bourg for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 26 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Dijon

1.5

3.22

Bourg

2.6

1.45

Dijon HC

-4.5

5.50

Bourg HC

+4.5

-5.50

Point Line

158.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Dijon are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

A

Roanne

W

91

81

6

2

W 1

86

89

Dec 12

A

Cholet

L

73

83

5

2

L 2

71

84

Nov 14

A

Monaco

L

62

70

5

1

L 1

73

66

Oct 27

H

Chalons-Reims

W

87

72

5

0

W 4

81

74

Oct 24

A

BCM Gravelines

W

81

67

4

0

W 3

87

76

Oct 17

H

Elan Bearnais

W

87

71

3

0

W 2

84

71

Oct 9

A

Le Portel

W

73

65

2

0

W 1

70

68

Sep 25

H

ASVEL

W

81

74

1

0

W 0

80

64

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bourg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 22

H

Le Mans

W

98

78

5

1

W 1

93

76

Dec 19

A

Limoges

L

72

74

4

1

L 1

76

78

Nov 14

A

Paris Levallois

W

79

76

4

0

W 3

86

74

Oct 4

A

ASVEL

W

104

102

3

0

W 2

103

89

Sep 27

H

Roanne

W

80

63

2

0

W 1

76

69

Sep 23

A

Nanterre

W

95

82

1

0

W 0

98

81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Dijon and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bourg.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bourg and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Dijon.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Dijon (in the first graph) and by Bourg in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Dijon will expected to score 79 points and the Bourg 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Dijon

Bourg

FG%

0.58

0.58

ASS

19.00

17.80

DRB

19.80

24.80

AST-TO

1.35

1.48

TRB

26.80

34.20

FTM

9.10

12.40

BL

2.30

2.60

FTA

13.30

16.40

PF-Fewer

19.40

19.60

ST

9.10

7.00

TO-Fewer

14.10

12.00

Ftper

0.69

0.76

ORBper

0.35

0.38

ORB

7.00

9.40


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Le Mans vs Metropolitans 92 at 26 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Le Mans and Metropolitans 92 for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 26 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Le Mans

2.45

1.83

Metropolitans 92

1.55

2.21

Le Mans HC

+3.5

-2.00

Metropolitans 92 HC

-3.5

2.00

Point Line

158.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Le Mans are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 22

A

JL Bourg

L

78

98

2

3

L 3

79

89

Oct 28

A

Elan Bearnais

L

81

90

2

2

L 2

78

90

Oct 24

H

Chalons-Reims

L

84

87

2

1

L 1

78

89

Oct 3

H

BCM Gravelines

W

69

64

2

0

W 1

74

72

Sep 26

H

Strasbourg

W

97

79

1

0

W 0

94

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Metropolitans 92 are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

H

Boulazac

W

98

79

7

1

W 2

86

86

Nov 22

H

Nanterre

W

73

67

6

1

W 1

76

66

Nov 14

H

JL Bourg

L

76

79

5

1

L 1

77

72

Nov 7

H

Elan Bearnais

W

84

77

5

0

W 4

81

77

Oct 26

H

Limoges

W

82

76

4

0

W 3

87

80

Oct 2

H

Cholet

W

72

68

3

0

W 2

70

69

Sep 26

H

BCM Gravelines

W

89

57

2

0

W 1

96

64

Sep 23

A

Monaco

W

72

62

1

0

W 0

84

58

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Le Mans and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Metropolitans 92.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Metropolitans 92 and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Le Mans.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Le Mans (in the first graph) and by Metropolitans 92 in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Le Mans will expected to score 78 points and the Metropolitans 92 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Le Mans

Metropolitans 92

FG%

0.52

0.56

ASS

18.20

20.30

DRB

21.60

21.00

AST-TO

1.10

2.18

TRB

31.00

29.70

FTM

16.40

12.70

BL

3.20

3.00

FTA

21.20

15.70

PF-Fewer

23.20

19.30

ST

6.60

6.00

TO-Fewer

16.60

9.30

Ftper

0.77

0.81

ORBper

0.44

0.41

ORB

9.40

8.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Villeurbanne vs Gravelines at 26 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Villeurbanne and Gravelines for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 26 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Villeurbanne

1.1

1.16

Gravelines

7

7.33

Villeurbanne HC

-12.5

-10.00

Gravelines HC

+12.5

10.00

Point Line

158.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Villeurbanne are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 14

H

Le Portel

W

101

66

4

2

W 3

97

69

Nov 8

H

Orleans Loiret

W

93

83

3

2

W 2

90

73

Oct 11

A

Cholet

W

82

73

2

2

W 1

79

74

Oct 4

H

JL Bourg

L

102

104

1

2

L 1

103

94

Sep 29

A

Chalons-Reims

W

85

73

1

1

W 1

79

75

Sep 25

A

Dijon

L

74

81

0

1

L 0

80

81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gravelines are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

H

Chalons-Reims

W

84

80

2

4

W 1

78

82

Oct 24

H

Dijon

L

67

81

1

4

L 1

72

81

Oct 9

H

Roanne

W

77

43

1

3

W 1

73

47

Oct 3

A

Le Mans

L

64

69

0

3

L 2

61

67

Sep 29

H

Limoges

L

65

77

0

2

L 1

69

81

Sep 26

A

Paris Levallois

L

57

89

0

1

L 0

62

86

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Villeurbanne and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gravelines.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gravelines and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Villeurbanne.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Villeurbanne (in the first graph) and by Gravelines in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Villeurbanne will expected to score 81 points and the Gravelines 73 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Villeurbanne

Gravelines

FG%

0.57

0.50

ASS

17.00

16.00

DRB

22.50

19.80

AST-TO

1.23

0.96

TRB

32.80

28.00

FTM

15.80

13.20

BL

4.30

2.00

FTA

19.80

18.30

PF-Fewer

23.00

19.20

ST

6.80

9.00

TO-Fewer

13.80

16.70

Ftper

0.80

0.72

ORBper

0.46

0.41

ORB

10.30

8.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Boulazac Dordogne Pro vs Monaco at 26 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Boulazac Dordogne Pro and Monaco for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 26 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Boulazac Dordogne Pro

5.25

4.94

Monaco

1.16

1.25

Boulazac Dordogne Pro HC

+10.5

8.50

Monaco HC

-10.5

-8.50

Point Line

155.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Boulazac Dordogne Pro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

A

Paris Levallois

L

79

98

0

4

L 3

86

95

Oct 24

A

Elan Bearnais

L

60

89

0

3

L 2

58

89

Oct 19

A

Strasbourg

L

84

100

0

2

L 1

81

94

Oct 17

H

Le Portel

L

70

71

0

1

L 0

67

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Monaco are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 6

A

Elan Bearnais

W

90

86

5

1

W 5

87

86

Nov 21

H

Limoges

W

86

59

4

1

W 4

91

62

Nov 14

H

Dijon

W

70

62

3

1

W 3

76

62

Oct 17

H

Elan Chalon

W

90

60

2

1

W 2

86

65

Oct 3

H

Roanne

W

86

61

1

1

W 1

81

67

Sep 23

H

Paris Levallois

L

62

72

0

1

L 0

68

70

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Boulazac Dordogne Pro and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Monaco.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Monaco and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Boulazac Dordogne Pro.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Boulazac Dordogne Pro (in the first graph) and by Monaco in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Boulazac Dordogne Pro will expected to score 71 points and the Monaco 87 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Boulazac Dordogne Pro

Monaco

FG%

0.52

0.55

ASS

14.00

18.00

DRB

20.30

23.80

AST-TO

0.79

1.45

TRB

28.00

36.20

FTM

14.80

15.20

BL

2.50

2.40

FTA

19.80

23.60

PF-Fewer

21.00

21.20

ST

7.30

11.40

TO-Fewer

17.80

12.40

Ftper

0.75

0.64

ORBper

0.38

0.52

ORB

7.80

12.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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