2020 12 26 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Aris vs Kolossos Rhodes at 26 December 2020
Promitheas vs Peristeri at 26 December 2020
Panathinaikos vs Iraklis at 27 December 2020
PAOK vs Ionikos Nikaias at 27 December 2020
GS Lavrio vs AEK Athens at 27 December 2020
Larissa BC vs Mesologgi BC at 27 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Aris vs Kolossos Rhodes at 26 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Aris and Kolossos Rhodes for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 26 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Aris

1.75

1.62

Kolossos Rhodes

2.1

2.62

Aris HC

-2.5

-4.00

Kolossos Rhodes HC

+2.5

4.00

Point Line

153.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

A

AEK Athens

L

67

84

3

4

L 1

72

78

Dec 16

A

Larisa

W

88

84

3

3

W 1

76

86

Dec 13

A

P.A.O.K.

L

64

75

2

3

L 2

60

73

Dec 9

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

71

92

2

2

L 1

72

90

Dec 5

H

Promitheas Patras

W

94

83

2

1

W 2

87

81

Nov 10

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

81

75

1

1

W 1

86

80

Oct 24

A

Messolonghi

L

70

73

0

1

L 0

70

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Kolossos Rhodes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

H

P.A.O.K.

L

84

85

2

6

L 2

79

83

Dec 13

A

Promitheas Patras

L

67

69

2

5

L 1

62

67

Dec 5

H

Larisa

W

90

64

2

4

W 1

78

65

Nov 22

A

Panathinaikos

L

67

90

1

4

L 2

80

85

Nov 18

A

Iraklis B.C.

L

65

66

1

3

L 1

69

70

Nov 14

H

Lavrio B.C.

W

77

62

1

2

W 1

78

61

Oct 31

H

Messolonghi

L

66

77

0

2

L 1

66

82

Oct 24

A

Peristeri

L

81

84

0

1

L 0

82

86

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aris and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Kolossos Rhodes.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Kolossos Rhodes and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aris.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Aris (in the first graph) and by Kolossos Rhodes in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Aris will expected to score 74 points and the Kolossos Rhodes 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 151.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Aris

Kolossos Rhodes

FG%

0.54

0.53

ASS

12.60

15.90

DRB

20.90

24.40

AST-TO

0.88

1.11

TRB

29.10

31.00

FTM

19.00

14.60

BL

2.00

1.30

FTA

24.90

20.00

PF-Fewer

20.30

22.80

ST

8.40

5.90

TO-Fewer

14.40

14.30

Ftper

0.76

0.73

ORBper

0.40

0.27

ORB

8.30

6.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Promitheas vs Peristeri at 26 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Promitheas and Peristeri for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 26 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Promitheas

1.95

1.57

Peristeri

1.87

2.75

Promitheas HC

+1.5

-4.50

Peristeri HC

-1.5

4.50

Point Line

154.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

77

86

2

2

L 1

74

87

Dec 13

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

69

67

2

1

W 1

70

68

Dec 5

A

Aris

L

83

94

1

1

L 1

77

94

Nov 21

H

P.A.O.K.

W

83

80

1

0

W 0

78

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

H

Larisa

W

82

78

5

3

W 1

71

79

Dec 13

A

Panathinaikos

L

57

76

4

3

L 2

68

72

Dec 5

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

70

78

4

2

L 1

71

77

Nov 22

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

75

71

4

1

W 2

80

76

Nov 15

H

Messolonghi

W

84

72

3

1

W 1

84

76

Nov 7

H

AEK Athens

L

62

66

2

1

L 1

67

61

Oct 31

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

80

75

2

0

W 1

77

76

Oct 24

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

84

81

1

0

W 0

85

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Peristeri.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Peristeri and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Promitheas (in the first graph) and by Peristeri in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Promitheas will expected to score 75 points and the Peristeri 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 152.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Promitheas

Peristeri

FG%

0.50

0.48

ASS

15.50

14.40

DRB

23.50

24.90

AST-TO

1.08

1.12

TRB

32.30

32.90

FTM

19.80

18.90

BL

4.30

2.40

FTA

29.00

24.60

PF-Fewer

20.30

21.10

ST

8.00

5.50

TO-Fewer

14.30

12.90

Ftper

0.68

0.77

ORBper

0.37

0.32

ORB

8.80

8.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Panathinaikos vs Iraklis at 27 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and Iraklis for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 27 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Panathinaikos

1.05

1.17

Iraklis

10

6.76

Panathinaikos HC

-17.5

-9.50

Iraklis HC

+17.5

9.50

Point Line

152.5

138.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

A

Messolonghi

W

73

66

6

0

W 5

73

70

Dec 13

H

Peristeri

W

76

57

5

0

W 4

77

58

Dec 6

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

79

53

4

0

W 3

76

54

Nov 22

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

90

67

3

0

W 2

91

68

Nov 8

H

P.A.O.K.

W

96

67

2

0

W 1

90

66

Oct 25

H

Larisa

W

69

60

1

0

W 0

60

61

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Iraklis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

60

77

4

4

L 2

61

76

Dec 12

H

AEK Athens

L

72

79

4

3

L 1

78

74

Dec 5

A

Messolonghi

W

71

68

4

2

W 1

71

72

Nov 22

H

Peristeri

L

71

75

3

2

L 1

72

77

Nov 18

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

66

65

3

1

W 2

67

66

Nov 14

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

77

67

2

1

W 1

74

68

Nov 10

A

Aris

L

75

81

1

1

L 1

70

81

Oct 24

H

P.A.O.K.

W

75

57

1

0

W 0

70

56

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Iraklis.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Iraklis and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Panathinaikos (in the first graph) and by Iraklis in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Panathinaikos will expected to score 75 points and the Iraklis 67 points. The total points line estimated to be at 142.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Panathinaikos

Iraklis

FG%

0.55

0.53

ASS

17.70

14.60

DRB

25.80

26.10

AST-TO

1.13

1.01

TRB

34.00

33.40

FTM

15.80

12.90

BL

2.80

2.10

FTA

19.80

18.00

PF-Fewer

18.70

22.00

ST

9.20

5.50

TO-Fewer

15.70

14.40

Ftper

0.80

0.72

ORBper

0.32

0.28

ORB

8.20

7.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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PAOK vs Ionikos Nikaias at 27 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between PAOK and Ionikos Nikaias for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 27 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

PAOK

1.6

1.68

Ionikos Nikaias

2.35

2.47

PAOK HC

-3.5

-3.50

Ionikos Nikaias HC

+3.5

3.50

Point Line

156.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of PAOK are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

A

Kolossos Rodou

W

85

84

3

5

W 2

86

86

Dec 13

H

Aris

W

75

64

2

5

W 1

70

64

Dec 9

H

Larisa

L

91

93

1

5

L 3

78

95

Dec 5

A

AEK Athens

L

84

85

1

4

L 2

91

79

Nov 21

A

Promitheas Patras

L

80

83

1

3

L 1

74

81

Nov 18

H

Lavrio B.C.

W

83

65

1

2

W 1

84

64

Nov 8

A

Panathinaikos

L

67

96

0

2

L 1

80

90

Oct 24

A

Iraklis B.C.

L

57

75

0

1

L 0

61

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ionikos Nikaias are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

H

Promitheas Patras

W

86

77

3

5

W 2

79

75

Dec 12

A

Larisa

W

97

76

2

5

W 1

84

77

Dec 6

H

Panathinaikos

L

53

79

1

5

L 1

63

74

Nov 22

A

Lavrio B.C.

W

91

81

1

4

W 1

92

80

Nov 14

H

Iraklis B.C.

L

67

77

0

4

L 3

71

82

Nov 7

A

Messolonghi

L

66

79

0

3

L 2

66

84

Oct 31

H

Peristeri

L

75

80

0

2

L 1

76

82

Oct 24

H

AEK Athens

L

68

81

0

1

L 0

74

75

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by PAOK and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ionikos Nikaias.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ionikos Nikaias and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by PAOK.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by PAOK (in the first graph) and by Ionikos Nikaias in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, PAOK will expected to score 78 points and the Ionikos Nikaias 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

PAOK

Ionikos Nikaias

FG%

0.54

0.50

ASS

15.40

13.60

DRB

21.30

23.10

AST-TO

1.12

1.05

TRB

29.00

32.10

FTM

13.50

10.90

BL

2.00

1.60

FTA

18.40

14.90

PF-Fewer

24.10

21.50

ST

9.40

7.40

TO-Fewer

13.80

13.00

Ftper

0.74

0.73

ORBper

0.37

0.39

ORB

7.80

9.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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GS Lavrio vs AEK Athens at 27 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between GS Lavrio and AEK Athens for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 27 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

GS Lavrio

4.3

2.77

AEK Athens

1.23

1.56

GS Lavrio HC

+9.5

4.50

AEK Athens HC

-9.5

-4.50

Point Line

151.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of GS Lavrio are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

77

60

4

3

W 4

82

64

Dec 12

H

Messolonghi

W

87

70

3

3

W 3

87

74

Dec 9

H

Aris

W

92

71

2

3

W 2

86

71

Dec 5

A

Peristeri

W

78

70

1

3

W 1

79

72

Nov 22

H

Ionikos Nikaias

L

81

91

0

3

L 2

78

92

Nov 18

A

P.A.O.K.

L

65

83

0

2

L 1

61

81

Nov 14

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

62

77

0

1

L 0

63

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of AEK Athens are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

H

Aris

W

84

67

7

0

W 6

78

67

Dec 12

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

79

72

6

0

W 5

84

77

Dec 5

H

P.A.O.K.

W

85

84

5

0

W 4

80

82

Nov 21

A

Messolonghi

W

87

66

4