2020 12 26 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Reggiana vs Cantu at 26 December 2020
Virtus Bologna vs Olimpia Milano at 27 December 2020
Fortitudo Bologna vs Reyer Venezia at 27 December 2020
Victoria Libertas Pesaro vs Trieste at 27 December 2020
Sassari vs Brescia at 27 December 2020
Varese vs Universo Treviso at 27 December 2020
Vanoli Cremona vs Brindisi at 27 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Reggiana vs Cantu at 26 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Reggiana and Cantu for Serie A, which will take place on 26 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Reggiana

1.29

1.99

Cantu

3.65

2.01

Reggiana HC

-7.5

-1.00

Cantu HC

+7.5

1.00

Point Line

155.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reggiana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

79

69

6

4

W 2

76

70

Dec 13

A

Openjobmetis Varese

W

89

76

5

4

W 1

82

77

Dec 6

H

Vanoli Cremona

L

56

85

4

4

L 1

54

83

Dec 3

H

Universo Treviso

W

98

74

4

3

W 1

86

70

Nov 22

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

63

84

3

3

L 1

65

84

Oct 24

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

83

67

3

2

W 2

84

70

Oct 18

A

Virtus Bologna

W

77

67

2

2

W 1

81

65

Oct 11

H

Enel Brindisi

L

76

80

1

2

L 1

79

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cantu are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

H

Germani Basket Brescia

L

89

92

4

8

L 1

90

96

Dec 16

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

73

67

4

7

W 1

76

73

Dec 13

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

73

74

3

7

L 3

75

76

Dec 9

A

Vanoli Cremona

L

67

101

3

6

L 2

64

99

Dec 6

A

Enel Brindisi

L

71

85

3

5

L 1

74

79

Nov 22

H

Virtus Roma

W

101

85

3

4

W 1

93

92

Nov 18

A

Universo Treviso

L

82

89

2

4

L 3

72

85

Nov 15

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

71

89

2

3

L 2

79

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reggiana and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cantu.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cantu and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reggiana.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Reggiana (in the first graph) and by Cantu in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Reggiana will expected to score 81 points and the Cantu 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Reggiana

Cantu

FG%

0.50

0.52

ASS

15.00

16.70

DRB

25.20

25.20

AST-TO

1.10

1.29

TRB

34.80

32.30

FTM

16.70

13.10

BL

2.40

3.10

FTA

21.20

18.30

PF-Fewer

20.30

17.10

ST

6.70

5.40

TO-Fewer

13.60

12.90

Ftper

0.79

0.71

ORBper

0.38

0.29

ORB

9.60

7.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Virtus Bologna vs Olimpia Milano at 27 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Bologna and Olimpia Milano for Serie A, which will take place on 27 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Virtus Bologna

2.4

2.95

Olimpia Milano

1.57

1.51

Virtus Bologna HC

+3.5

5.00

Olimpia Milano HC

-3.5

-5.00

Point Line

161.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

A

Universo Treviso

W

98

72

7

4

W 2

86

68

Dec 13

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

77

60

6

4

W 1

80

65

Dec 6

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

78

83

5

4

L 1

73

75

Nov 22

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

91

71

5

3

W 1

87

72

Nov 7

H

Enel Brindisi

L

88

98

4

3

L 1

91

91

Nov 1

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

83

68

4

2

W 2

88

70

Oct 24

A

Openjobmetis Varese

W

85

73

3

2

W 1

79

74

Oct 18

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

67

77

2

2

L 2

71

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

102

86

11

1

W 1

96

77

Dec 13

H

Enel Brindisi

L

82

88

10

1

L 1

85

82

Dec 6

A

Openjobmetis Varese

W

96

70

10

0

W 9

89

71

Nov 22

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

86

72

9

0

W 8

91

74

Nov 15

A

Red October Cantu

W

89

71

8

0

W 7

87

74

Nov 8

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

87

56

7

0

W 6

88

58

Nov 1

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

82

75

6

0

W 5

84

77

Oct 25

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

82

71

5

0

W 4

79

72

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Virtus Bologna (in the first graph) and by Olimpia Milano in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Virtus Bologna will expected to score 77 points and the Olimpia Milano 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Virtus Bologna

Olimpia Milano

FG%

0.54

0.57

ASS

21.70

19.30

DRB

25.80

26.50

AST-TO

1.56

2.10

TRB

35.50

34.90

FTM

12.70

14.90

BL

2.50

2.80

FTA

17.60

18.10

PF-Fewer

20.50

18.80

ST

8.70

7.20

TO-Fewer

13.90

9.20

Ftper

0.72

0.82

ORBper

0.37

0.32

ORB

9.60

8.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Fortitudo Bologna vs Reyer Venezia at 27 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Fortitudo Bologna and Reyer Venezia for Serie A, which will take place on 27 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fortitudo Bologna

1.78

1.62

Reyer Venezia

2.05

2.62

Fortitudo Bologna HC

-1.5

-4.00

Reyer Venezia HC

+1.5

4.00

Point Line

160.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fortitudo Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

85

71

3

9

W 1

82

69

Dec 16

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

69

79

2

9

L 1

73

82

Dec 12

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

78

70

2

8

W 1

81

70

Dec 5

A

Germani Basket Brescia

L

85

99

1

8

L 6

86

103

Nov 22

H

Virtus Bologna

L

71

91

1

7

L 5

75

88

Nov 7

H

Universo Treviso

L

87

98

1

6

L 4

76

93

Nov 1

A

Enel Brindisi

L

74

100

1

5

L 3

77

93

Oct 25

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

71

82

1

4

L 2

79

73

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reyer Venezia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 23

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

81

66

7

5

W 2

84

72

Dec 20

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

86

77

6

5

W 1

80

78

Dec 13

A

Germani Basket Brescia

L

69

71

5

5

L 3

70

74

Dec 6

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

71

79

5

4

L 2

73

81

Nov 22

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

72

86

5

3

L 1

81

77

Nov 8

A

Virtus Roma

W

89

71

5

2

W 1

82

76

Nov 1

H

Virtus Bologna

L

68

83

4

2

L 1

72

80

Oct 25

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

99

92

4

1

W 2

93

83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fortitudo Bologna and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reyer Venezia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reyer Venezia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fortitudo Bologna.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fortitudo Bologna (in the first graph) and by Reyer Venezia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fortitudo Bologna will expected to score 78 points and the Reyer Venezia 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Fortitudo Bologna

Reyer Venezia

FG%

0.52

0.53

ASS

17.10

16.80

DRB

23.30

24.80

AST-TO

1.40

1.17

TRB

31.70

33.00

FTM

12.50

12.90

BL

3.50

2.60

FTA

17.80

17.60

PF-Fewer

18.90

21.60

ST

8.80

6.40

TO-Fewer

12.20

14.30

Ftper

0.70

0.74

ORBper

0.36

0.33

ORB

8.40

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Victoria Libertas Pesaro vs Trieste at 27 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Victoria Libertas Pesaro and Trieste for Serie A, which will take place on 27 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

1.67

1.67

Trieste

2.2

2.49

Victoria Libertas Pesaro HC

-2.5

-3.50

Trieste HC

+2.5

3.50

Point Line

158.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Victoria Libertas Pesaro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

A

Enel Brindisi

W

92

81

6

5

W 1

95

75

Dec 12

H

Fortitudo Bologna

L

70

78

5

5

L 2

67

79

Dec 6

A

Universo Treviso

L

81

91

5

4

L 1

71

86

Nov 22

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

84

63

5

3

W 4

88

66

Nov 8

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

85

78

4

3

W 3

79

79

Nov 1

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

95

83

3

3

W 2

92

81

Oct 25

A

Virtus Roma

W

84

69

2

3

W 1

77

74

Oct 17

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

57

71

1

3

L 1

58

73

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Trieste are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 23

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

66

81

3

6

L 1

70

84

Dec 20

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

92

82

3

5

W 1

94

84

Dec 16

A

Red October Cantu

L

67

73

2

5

L 5

66

76

Dec 13

H

Virtus Bologna

L

60

77

2

4

L 4

63

74

Oct 25

H

Enel Brindisi

L

76

79

2

3

L 3

79

73

Oct 18

A

Germani Basket Brescia

L

63

75

2

2

L 2

64

78

Oct 11

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

65

87

2

1

L 1

73

78

Oct 4

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

74

72

2

0

W 1

69

65

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Victoria Libertas Pesaro and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Trieste.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Trieste and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Victoria Libertas Pesaro.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Victoria Libertas Pesaro (in the first graph) and by Trieste in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Victoria Libertas Pesaro will expected to score 78 points and the Trieste 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

Trieste

FG%

0.53

0.50

ASS

13.50

17.00

DRB

25.20

27.80

AST-TO

1.25

1.14

TRB

34.90

35.80

FTM

13.30

9.30

BL

1.20

2.40

FTA

18.40

14.00

PF-Fewer

21.00

17.90

ST

6.30

6.30

TO-Fewer

10.80

14.90

Ftper

0.72

0.67

ORBper

0.38

0.29

ORB

9.70

8.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Sassari vs Brescia at 27 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sassari and Brescia for Serie A, which will take place on 27 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Sassari

1.5

1.46

Brescia

2.6

3.18

Sassari HC

-4.5

-5.50

Brescia HC

+4.5

5.50

Point Line

167.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Sassari are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 23

A

Vanoli Cremona

W

95

75

7

5

W 1

92

73

Dec 20

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

86

102

6

5

L 1

96

91

Dec 13

H

Universo Treviso

W

97

93

6

4

W 2

85

88

Dec 6