2020 12 26 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Tenerife vs Andorra at 27 December 2020
Zaragoza vs Baskonia at 27 December 2020
Bilbao vs Unicaja Malaga at 27 December 2020
Manresa vs Gran Canaria at 27 December 2020
Real Betis vs Fuenlabrada at 27 December 2020
Murcia vs Obradoiro at 27 December 2020
Real Madrid vs Barcelona at 27 December 2020
Joventut Badalona vs San Pablo Burgos at 27 December 2020
Valencia vs Gipuzkoa at 27 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Tenerife vs Andorra at 27 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Tenerife and Andorra for Liga ACB, which will take place on 27 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Tenerife

1.38

2.52

Andorra

3.1

1.66

Tenerife HC

-5.5

3.50

Andorra HC

+5.5

-3.50

Point Line

158.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

A

Baskonia

L

72

79

12

2

L 1

76

79

Dec 12

H

San Pablo Burgos

W

84

79

12

1

W 6

85

74

Dec 5

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

107

62

11

1

W 5

104

62

Nov 22

A

Valencia Basket

W

95

89

10

1

W 4

95

87

Nov 15

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

99

80

9

1

W 3

98

86

Nov 12

A

Manresa

W

88

80

8

1

W 2

85

78

Nov 8

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

77

73

7

1

W 1

78

82

Nov 1

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

74

81

6

1

L 1

80

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

81

73

7

6

W 1

78

74

Dec 13

A

Acunsa GBC

L

82

86

6

6

L 2

78

98

Dec 11

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

83

98

6

5

L 1

74

103

Dec 6

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

72

55

6

4

W 3

72

61

Dec 3

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

85

76

5

4

W 2

80

78

Nov 21

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

79

62

4

4

W 1

78

67

Oct 25

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

71

82

3

4

L 1

77

79

Oct 17

H

San Pablo Burgos

W

87

82

3

3

W 2

88

77

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tenerife and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tenerife.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Tenerife (in the first graph) and by Andorra in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Tenerife will expected to score 82 points and the Andorra 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Tenerife

Andorra

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

16.70

15.80

DRB

19.40

24.20

AST-TO

1.29

1.07

TRB

28.90

33.80

FTM

13.10

13.60

BL

2.40

3.40

FTA

17.70

17.90

PF-Fewer

21.50

21.10

ST

7.70

7.40

TO-Fewer

12.90

14.70

Ftper

0.74

0.76

ORBper

0.49

0.40

ORB

9.50

9.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Zaragoza vs Baskonia at 27 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Baskonia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 27 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zaragoza

2.85

2.32

Baskonia

1.42

1.76

Zaragoza HC

+4.5

2.50

Baskonia HC

-4.5

-2.50

Point Line

167.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

91

102

4

11

L 1

88

102

Dec 13

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

105

76

4

10

W 2

99

78

Dec 11

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

98

83

3

10

W 1

102

84

Dec 5

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

81

88

2

10

L 6

81

83

Nov 22

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

85

97

2

9

L 5

92

93

Nov 14

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

81

82

2

8

L 4

80

80

Nov 8

H

Manresa

L

102

103

2

7

L 3

99

100

Oct 30

H

Unicaja

L

63

92

2

6

L 2

64

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

H

Iberostar Tenerife

W

79

72

11

4

W 3

82

67

Dec 12

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

77

73

10

4

W 2

78

82

Dec 6

H

Acunsa GBC

W

83

71

9

4

W 1

78

81

Dec 2

A

Real Madrid

L

83

92

8

4

L 1

90

86

Nov 15

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

80

74

8

3

W 4

77

74

Nov 7

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

82

68

7

3

W 3

77

70

Nov 1

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

75

71

6

3

W 2

74

76

Oct 28

H

Manresa

W

87

68

5

3

W 1

84

66

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zaragoza (in the first graph) and by Baskonia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zaragoza will expected to score 82 points and the Baskonia 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zaragoza

Baskonia

FG%

0.54

0.54

ASS

15.50

16.60

DRB

23.10

22.40

AST-TO

1.21

1.14

TRB

30.10

30.40

FTM

14.60

9.30

BL

2.20

2.60

FTA

20.60

13.30

PF-Fewer

20.10

19.50

ST

7.20

7.70

TO-Fewer

12.80

14.50

Ftper

0.71

0.70

ORBper

0.31

0.36

ORB

7.10

8.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Bilbao vs Unicaja Malaga at 27 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bilbao and Unicaja Malaga for Liga ACB, which will take place on 27 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bilbao

3

2.94

Unicaja Malaga

1.39

1.51

Bilbao HC

+5.5

5.00

Unicaja Malaga HC

-5.5

-5.00

Point Line

163.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bilbao are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

74

70

3

11

W 1

73

69

Dec 13

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

76

105

2

11

L 3

68

110

Dec 6

H

Movistar Estudiantes

L

77

78

2

10

L 2

74

79

Dec 3

H

MoraBanc Andorra

L

76

85

2

9

L 1

79

86

Nov 22

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

96

89

2

8

W 1

97

99

Nov 15

H

UCAM Murcia

L

63

73

1

8

L 5

62

73

Nov 7

A

Baskonia

L

68

82

1

7

L 4

72

82

Nov 4

H

Real Madrid

L

83

85

1

6

L 3

90

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 22

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

84

90

8

6

L 2

83

88

Dec 13

A

Real Madrid

L

84

91

8

5

L 1

92

84

Dec 6

H

UCAM Murcia

W

102

81

8

4

W 5

100

81

Nov 22

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

92

90

7

4

W 4

89

91

Nov 15

H

Acunsa GBC

W

104

69

6

4

W 3

98

78

Nov 1

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

82

76

5

4

W 2

79

76

Oct 30

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

92

63

4

4

W 1

83

66

Oct 25

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

79

86

3

4

L 1

82

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bilbao and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unicaja Malaga.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unicaja Malaga and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bilbao.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bilbao (in the first graph) and by Unicaja Malaga in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bilbao will expected to score 79 points and the Unicaja Malaga 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bilbao

Unicaja Malaga

FG%

0.51

0.55

ASS

14.90

16.90

DRB

21.40

22.20

AST-TO

1.03

1.10

TRB

30.60

32.50

FTM

14.90

13.10

BL

2.40

2.00

FTA

18.90

17.10

PF-Fewer

21.60

18.00

ST

6.10

6.50

TO-Fewer

14.40

15.40

Ftper

0.78

0.77

ORBper

0.43

0.46

ORB

9.30

10.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Manresa vs Gran Canaria at 27 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Manresa and Gran Canaria for Liga ACB, which will take place on 27 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Manresa

1.6

1.67

Gran Canaria

2.35

2.48

Manresa HC

-3.5

-3.50

Gran Canaria HC

+3.5

3.50

Point Line

163.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

80

91

7

7

L 1

81

85

Dec 12

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

85

80

7

6

W 1

85

76

Nov 22

A

Real Madrid

L

78

100

6

6

L 2

85

93

Nov 12

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

80

88

6

5

L 1

83

82

Nov 8

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

103

102

6

4

W 2

92

107

Oct 31

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

94

78

5

4

W 1

88

80

Oct 28

A

Baskonia

L

68

87

4

4

L 1

72

87

Oct 24

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

93

81

4

3

W 2

94

90

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gran Canaria are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 22

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

78

54

5

10

W 3

78

60

Dec 19

A

Acunsa GBC

W

79

65

4

10

W 2

75

74

Dec 13

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

87

71

3

10

W 1

86

70

Dec 6

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

63

91

2

10

L 3

68

87

Nov 21

H

MoraBanc Andorra

L

62

79

2

9

L 2

65

80

Nov 15

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

80

99

2

8

L 1

83

92

Nov 7

A

UCAM Murcia

W

78

74

2

7

W 1

77

74

Nov 1

H

Baskonia

L

71

75

1

7

L 7

75

75

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gran Canaria.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gran Canaria and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Manresa (in the first graph) and by Gran Canaria in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Manresa will expected to score 82 points and the Gran Canaria 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Manresa

Gran Canaria

FG%

0.57

0.50

ASS

14.90

14.50

DRB

21.40

21.10

AST-TO

1.03

1.18

TRB

28.00

29.50

FTM

17.10

11.30

BL

3.70

2.50

FTA

22.30

15.50

PF-Fewer

20.50

19.20

ST

9.10

7.10

TO-Fewer

14.50

12.30

Ftper

0.77

0.72

ORBper

0.31

0.39

ORB

6.60

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Real Betis vs Fuenlabrada at 27 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Betis and Fuenlabrada for Liga ACB, which will take place on 27 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Real Betis

1.8

3.14

Fuenlabrada

2.02

1.47

Real Betis HC

-1.5

5.50

Fuenlabrada HC

+1.5

-5.50

Point Line

156.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Betis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 22

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

54

78

2

12

L 6

54

84

Dec 12

H

Baskonia

L

73

77

2

11

L 5

77

77

Dec 6

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

55

72

2

10

L 4

57

73

Nov 22

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

89

96

2

9

L 3

84

98

Nov 14

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

53

82