2020 12 26 Turkey Super League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Buyukcekmece vs Fethiye Belediye at 26 December 2020
Anadolu Efes vs Fenerbahce at 26 December 2020
Bahcesehir Koleji vs Gaziantep at 26 December 2020
Karsiyaka vs Ormanspor at 27 December 2020
Bursaspor vs Galatasaray at 27 December 2020
Afyon Belediye vs Besiktas at 27 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Buyukcekmece vs Fethiye Belediye at 26 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Buyukcekmece and Fethiye Belediye for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 26 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Buyukcekmece

1.36

1.74

Fethiye Belediye

3.1

2.36

Buyukcekmece HC

-6.5

-3.00

Fethiye Belediye HC

+6.5

3.00

Point Line

167.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buyukcekmece are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

A

Besiktas

L

77

84

5

7

L 2

76

83

Dec 16

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

77

90

5

6

L 1

83

89

Dec 13

H

Ormanspor

W

89

82

5

5

W 3

80

86

Dec 5

A

Galatasaray

W

91

87

4

5

W 2

85

87

Dec 1

H

Fenerbahce

W

93

91

3

5

W 1

102

83

Nov 8

A

Afyon

L

74

79

2

5

L 4

72

81

Nov 1

A

Anadolu Efes

L

79

98

2

4

L 3

89

91

Oct 24

H

Bahcesehir

L

66

92

2

3

L 2

67

92

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fethiye Belediye are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

H

Bahcesehir

L

76

105

3

10

L 5

77

106

Dec 16

A

Gaziantep

L

64

84

3

9

L 4

71

92

Dec 13

A

Turk Telekom

L

75

87

3

8

L 3

75

85

Dec 5

H

Darussafaka

L

54

78

3

7

L 2

56

77

Dec 2

A

Tofas

L

81

110

3

6

L 1

78

104

Nov 21

H

Socar Spor

W

75

74

3

5

W 1

77

74

Nov 7

H

Anadolu Efes

L

84

90

2

5

L 1

94

84

Nov 1

H

Besiktas

W

87

83

2

4

W 1

86

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buyukcekmece and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fethiye Belediye.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fethiye Belediye and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buyukcekmece.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Buyukcekmece (in the first graph) and by Fethiye Belediye in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Buyukcekmece will expected to score 86 points and the Fethiye Belediye 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Buyukcekmece

Fethiye Belediye

FG%

0.49

0.48

ASS

17.70

19.20

DRB

23.80

21.90

AST-TO

1.69

1.48

TRB

33.00

30.60

FTM

13.80

13.90

BL

2.10

2.20

FTA

18.20

19.10

PF-Fewer

20.50

18.90

ST

6.30

5.90

TO-Fewer

10.50

13.00

Ftper

0.76

0.73

ORBper

0.39

0.40

ORB

9.30

8.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Anadolu Efes vs Fenerbahce at 26 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Anadolu Efes and Fenerbahce for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 26 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Anadolu Efes

1.4

1.46

Fenerbahce

2.9

3.20

Anadolu Efes HC

-6.5

-5.50

Fenerbahce HC

+6.5

5.50

Point Line

160.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Anadolu Efes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

A

Tofas

W

92

78

11

0

W 10

89

74

Dec 6

A

Socar Spor

W

75

71

10

0

W 9

77

71

Dec 1

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

74

61

9

0

W 8

80

60

Nov 15

H

Afyon

W

86

67

8

0

W 7

84

68

Nov 7

A

Fethiye

W

90

84

7

0

W 6

81

92

Nov 1

H

Buyukcekmece

W

98

79

6

0

W 5

90

78

Oct 26

A

Besiktas

W

81

74

5

0

W 4

80

73

Oct 18

H

Bahcesehir

W

89

66

4

0

W 3

90

66

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fenerbahce are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

H

Bursaspor

W

90

54

11

2

W 1

84

55

Dec 12

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

79

83

10

2

L 1

85

82

Dec 6

H

Afyon

W

94

74

10

1

W 1

92

76

Dec 1

A

Buyukcekmece

L

91

93

9

1

L 1

84

92

Nov 22

H

Bahcesehir

W

70

56

9

0

W 8

71

56

Nov 14

A

Turk Telekom

W

82

81

8

0

W 7

82

79

Nov 8

H

Darussafaka

W

90

79

7

0

W 6

92

78

Oct 31

A

Tofas

W

104

103

6

0

W 5

101

97

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Anadolu Efes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fenerbahce.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fenerbahce and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Anadolu Efes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Anadolu Efes (in the first graph) and by Fenerbahce in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Anadolu Efes will expected to score 80 points and the Fenerbahce 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Anadolu Efes

Fenerbahce

FG%

0.56

0.60

ASS

21.50

21.20

DRB

23.90

24.10

AST-TO

2.34

1.63

TRB

33.50

32.30

FTM

12.70

15.10

BL

3.30

2.20

FTA

16.00

19.00

PF-Fewer

16.50

16.80

ST

8.10

7.40

TO-Fewer

9.20

13.00

Ftper

0.80

0.79

ORBper

0.40

0.34

ORB

9.60

8.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Bahcesehir Koleji vs Gaziantep at 26 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bahcesehir Koleji and Gaziantep for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 26 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bahcesehir Koleji

1.57

2.09

Gaziantep

2.35

1.92

Bahcesehir Koleji HC

-3.5

1.50

Gaziantep HC

+3.5

-1.50

Point Line

155.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bahcesehir Koleji are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

A

Fethiye

W

105

76

5

8

W 1

95

84

Dec 12

H

Besiktas

L

76

86

4

8

L 5

76

85

Dec 6

A

Ormanspor

L

68

80

4

7

L 4

62

84

Dec 4

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

79

82

4

6

L 3

85

81

Dec 2

H

Galatasaray

L

78

95

4

5

L 2

72

95

Nov 22

A

Fenerbahce

L

56

70

4

4

L 1

61

64

Nov 14

H

Bursaspor

W

101

71

4

3

W 1

94

73

Oct 31

H

Afyon

L

70

76

3

3

L 1

68

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gaziantep are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

H

Turk Telekom

W

70

66

6

6

W 2

70

64

Dec 16

H

Fethiye

W

84

64

5

6

W 1

76

70

Dec 13

A

Darussafaka

L

75

82

4

6

L 1

77

81

Dec 5

H

Tofas

W

68

67

4

5

W 1

66

63

Dec 1

A

Socar Spor

L

66

67

3

5

L 3

68

67

Nov 8

A

Besiktas

L

81

84

3

4

L 2

80

83

Nov 1

H

Ormanspor

L

76

87

3

3

L 1

69

92

Oct 25

A

Galatasaray

W

90

86

3

2

W 1

84

86

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bahcesehir Koleji and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gaziantep.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gaziantep and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bahcesehir Koleji.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bahcesehir Koleji (in the first graph) and by Gaziantep in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bahcesehir Koleji will expected to score 77 points and the Gaziantep 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bahcesehir Koleji

Gaziantep

FG%

0.55

0.51

ASS

18.50

19.80

DRB

23.80

23.00

AST-TO

1.40

1.92

TRB

31.60

32.20

FTM

14.20

12.20

BL

2.20

2.50

FTA

19.30

18.10

PF-Fewer

21.20

21.60

ST

7.30

7.30

TO-Fewer

13.20

10.30

Ftper

0.73

0.67

ORBper

0.33

0.40

ORB

7.80

9.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Karsiyaka vs Ormanspor at 27 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Karsiyaka and Ormanspor for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 27 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Karsiyaka

1.16

1.53

Ormanspor

5

2.87

Karsiyaka HC

-10.5

-4.50

Ormanspor HC

+10.5

4.50

Point Line

159.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Karsiyaka are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

A

Galatasaray

W

86

74

10

3

W 5

80

74

Dec 16

A

Buyukcekmece

W

90

77

9

3

W 4

83

76

Dec 12

H

Fenerbahce

W

83

79

8

3

W 3

91

72

Dec 6

A

Bursaspor

W

94

81

7

3

W 2

87

83

Dec 4

H

Bahcesehir

W

82

79

6

3

W 1

83

79

Dec 1

A

Anadolu Efes

L

61

74

5

3

L 1

69

69

Nov 21

H

Afyon

W

96

82

5

2

W 1

94

84

Nov 1

A

Turk Telekom

L

61

81

4

2

L 1

61

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ormanspor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

H

Afyon

L

85

101

4

9

L 2

83

103

Dec 13

A

Buyukcekmece

L

82

89

4

8

L 1

76

88

Dec 6

H

Bahcesehir

W

80

68

4

7

W 1

81

68

Dec 2

A

Turk Telekom

L

64

83

3

7

L 4

64

81

Nov 21

H

Darussafaka

L

64

80

3

6

L 3

66

79

Nov 14

A

Tofas

L

82

99

3

5

L 2

79

94

Nov 7

H

Socar Spor

L

90

106

3

4

L 1

92

106

Nov 1

A

Gaziantep

W

87

76

3

3

W 3

96

83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Karsiyaka and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ormanspor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ormanspor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Karsiyaka.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Karsiyaka (in the first graph) and by Ormanspor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Karsiyaka will expected to score 85 points and the Ormanspor 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Karsiyaka

Ormanspor

FG%

0.54

0.53

ASS

19.20

18.90

DRB

24.50

22.00

AST-TO

1.50

1.54

TRB

34.00

29.10

FTM

17.70

15.70

BL

1.70

2.90

FTA

24.40

21.40

PF-Fewer

18.80

16.80

ST

6.80

4.50

TO-Fewer

12.80

12.30

Ftper

0.73

0.73

ORBper

0.39

0.32

ORB

9.50

7.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Bursaspor vs Galatasaray at 27 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bursaspor and Galatasaray for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 27 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bursaspor

2.45

2.49

Galatasaray

1.53

1.67

Bursaspor HC

+4.5

3.50

Galatasaray HC

-4.5

-3.50

Point Line

168.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bursaspor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

A

Fenerbahce

L

54

90

3

8

L 6

59

82

Dec 6

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

81

94

3

7

L 5

88

93

Dec 2

A

Afyon

L

70

76

3

6

L 4

68

78

Nov 14

A

Bahcesehir

L

71

101

3

5

L 3