2020 12 29 7DAYS EuroCup



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Promitheas vs Bursaspor at 29 December 2020
Reyer Venezia vs Partizan at 29 December 2020
Monaco vs Andorra at 29 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Promitheas vs Bursaspor at 29 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Promitheas and Bursaspor for EuroCup, which will take place on 29 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Promitheas

2.75

2.10

Bursaspor

1.45

1.91

Promitheas HC

+5.5

1.50

Bursaspor HC

-5.5

-1.50

Point Line

166.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

H

Cedevita Olimpija

L

69

105

2

5

L 4

76

101

Dec 10

A

Cedevita Olimpija

L

73

77

2

4

L 3

81

74

Dec 8

A

Nanterre 92

L

70

91

2

3

L 2

71

93

Nov 11

H

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

80

89

2

2

L 1

86

89

Oct 21

H

Nanterre 92

W

88

72

2

1

W 2

89

74

Oct 13

A

Bursaspor

W

93

84

1

1

W 1

77

81

Oct 6

A

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

51

78

0

1

L 0

55

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bursaspor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 23

H

Nanterre 92

W

102

92

2

5

W 2

103

94

Dec 22

A

Nanterre 92

W

91

90

1

5

W 1

92

92

Nov 11

H

Cedevita Olimpija

L

80

97

0

5

L 4

89

93

Nov 9

A

Cedevita Olimpija

L

88

104

0

4

L 3

98

100

Nov 4

A

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

80

89

0

3

L 2

86

89

Oct 13

H

Promitheas

L

84

93

0

2

L 1

80

100

Sep 29

H

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

86

93

0

1

L 0

92

93

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bursaspor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bursaspor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Promitheas (in the first graph) and by Bursaspor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Promitheas will expected to score 85 points and the Bursaspor 88 points. The total points line estimated to be at 173.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Promitheas

Bursaspor

FG%

0.53

0.58

ASS

18.60

20.40

DRB

23.90

22.60

AST-TO

1.25

1.67

TRB

29.70

27.40

FTM

12.60

12.80

BL

3.70

1.80

FTA

16.00

15.40

PF-Fewer

18.30

16.20

ST

4.60

4.20

TO-Fewer

14.90

12.20

Ftper

0.79

0.83

ORBper

0.25

0.21

ORB

5.90

4.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Reyer Venezia vs Partizan at 29 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Reyer Venezia and Partizan for EuroCup, which will take place on 29 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Reyer Venezia

1.9

2.23

Partizan

1.9

1.81

Reyer Venezia HC

-1.5

2.50

Partizan HC

+1.5

-2.50

Point Line

155.5

167.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reyer Venezia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 15

A

Bahcesehir

L

74

108

2

5

L 3

73

107

Dec 8

H

Joventut

L

75

89

2

4

L 2

77

84

Nov 4

A

UNICS

L

87

90

2

3

L 1

85

86

Oct 28

H

Bahcesehir

W

88

82

2

2

W 1

87

81

Oct 20

A

Joventut

L

78

92

1

2

L 2

80

86

Oct 6

A

Partizan NIS

L

73

95

1

1

L 1

74

93

Sep 30

H

UNICS

W

85

78

1

0

W 0

83

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Partizan are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 9

H

Bahcesehir

W

88

75

5

2

W 4

87

74

Nov 19

H

Joventut

W

78

75

4

2

W 3

80

70

Nov 17

H

UNICS

W

89

86

3

2

W 2

87

82

Oct 20

A

Bahcesehir

W

82

76

2

2

W 1

81

75

Oct 14

A

UNICS

L

70

93

1

2

L 1

68

89

Oct 6

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

95

73

1

1

W 1

84

74

Sep 30

A

Joventut

L

82

85

0

1

L 0

84

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reyer Venezia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Partizan.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Partizan and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reyer Venezia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Reyer Venezia (in the first graph) and by Partizan in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Reyer Venezia will expected to score 79 points and the Partizan 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Reyer Venezia

Partizan

FG%

0.52

0.56

ASS

18.10

14.40

DRB

20.10

19.60

AST-TO

1.38

1.17

TRB

29.00

29.60

FTM

13.00

12.00

BL

2.30

2.00

FTA

17.00

17.70

PF-Fewer

24.70

21.00

ST

6.10

7.10

TO-Fewer

13.10

12.30

Ftper

0.76

0.68

ORBper

0.44

0.51

ORB

8.90

10.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Monaco vs Andorra at 29 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Monaco and Andorra for EuroCup, which will take place on 29 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Monaco

1.29

1.89

Andorra

3.65

2.12

Monaco HC

-7.5

-1.50

Andorra HC

+7.5

1.50

Point Line

154.5

150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Monaco are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 18

A

Lietkabelis

W

88

64

5

4

W 1

86

71

Dec 16

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

72

76

4

4

L 2

72

66

Dec 9

H

Virtus Bologna

L

68

74

4

3

L 1

74

70

Nov 17

A

Antwerp Giants

W

75

67

4

2

W 1

70

73

Oct 28

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

72

88

3

2

L 2

72

77

Oct 21

A

Virtus Bologna

L

85

94

3

1

L 1

93

89

Oct 14

H

Antwerp Giants

W

96

64

3

0

W 2

89

70

Oct 7

H

Lietkabelis

W

82

57

2

0

W 1

80

63

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 22

A

Virtus Bologna

L

81

92

3

6

L 3

88

87

Dec 16

A

Lietkabelis

L

69

77

3

5

L 2

67

85

Dec 9

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

100

106

3

4

L 1

100

93

Nov 19

H

Antwerp Giants

W

82

69

3

3

W 2

76

75

Oct 27

H

Lietkabelis

W

76

66

2

3

W 1

74

73

Oct 21

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

61

76

1

3

L 2

61

66

Oct 13

H

Virtus Bologna

L

66

82

1

2

L 1

72

77

Oct 6

A

Antwerp Giants

W

71

60

1

1

W 1

66

66

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Monaco and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Monaco.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Monaco (in the first graph) and by Andorra in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Monaco will expected to score 79 points and the Andorra 75 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Monaco

Andorra

FG%

0.52

0.46

ASS

15.40

15.50

DRB

21.20

22.40

AST-TO

1.33

1.18

TRB

33.00

33.30

FTM

13.40

13.40

BL

2.20

3.50

FTA

19.80

17.10

PF-Fewer

20.70

21.00

ST

8.00

8.30

TO-Fewer

11.60

13.10

Ftper

0.68

0.78

ORBper

0.56

0.49

ORB

11.80

10.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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