2020 12 29 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Rotherham vs Barnsley at 29 December 2020
Wycombe vs Cardiff at 29 December 2020
Swansea vs Reading at 29 December 2020
Sheffield Weds vs Middlesbrough at 29 December 2020
Preston vs Coventry at 29 December 2020
Millwall vs Watford at 29 December 2020
Luton vs Bristol City at 29 December 2020
Huddersfield vs Blackburn at 29 December 2020
Brentford vs Bournemouth at 29 December 2020
Birmingham vs Derby at 29 December 2020
Norwich vs QPR at 29 December 2020
Stoke vs Nott’m Forest at 29 December 2020


Rotherham vs Barnsley at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Rotherham and Barnsley for Championship (England), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rotherham

3.71

2.40

14.7

Draw

3.29

3.69

-3.3

Barnsley

2.12

3.19

-15.8

Over 2.5

2.11

2.11

0.0

Under 2.5

1.76

1.90

-4.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rotherham (14.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rotherham in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rotherham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance at home.
Rotherham, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Dec

Blackburn

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Bristol City

H

2

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Watford

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Coventry

A

1

3

L

O

G

01 Dec

Brentford

H

0

2

L

U

N

28 Nov

Bournemouth

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

QPR

A

2

3

L

O

G

21 Nov

Swansea

A

0

1

L

U

N


Barnsley in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnsley in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnsley’s performance as a guest.
Barnsley, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnsley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Huddersfield

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Swansea

A

0

2

L

U

N

15 Dec

Preston

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Sheffield Weds

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Dec

Wycombe

H

2

1

W

O

G

04 Dec

Bournemouth

H

0

4

L

O

N

01 Dec

Birmingham

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Blackburn

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rotherham and the red line for guest team, Barnsley.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rotherham

25%

34%

23%

17%

Barnsley

31%

36%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rotherham to score 0.95 goals and Barnsley to score 1.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the guest team Barnsley to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rotherham to score 1.33 goals and Barnsley to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.61

1

5.05

2-3

2.04

2

4.00

4+

4.26

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.61

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.26

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.59

3.51

3.04

2-3 goals

2.33

3.98

3.13

4+ goals

2.37

3.41

3.51

Ov 1.5

2.34

3.77

3.25

Un 1.5

2.59

3.51

3.04

Ov 2.5

2.01

6.87

2.80

Un 2.5

2.93

2.61

3.63

Ov 3.5

2.37

3.41

3.51

Un 3.5

2.42

3.79

3.10

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.68

3.67

No Goal

2.08

6.16

2.80

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.15

5.67

2.79

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

6.16

2.79


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wycombe vs Cardiff at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Wycombe and Cardiff for Championship (England), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wycombe

4.12

2.82

11.2

Draw

3.52

3.61

-0.7

Cardiff

1.89

2.72

-16.1

Over 2.5

2.03

2.26

-5.0

Under 2.5

1.80

1.80

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wycombe (11.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wycombe in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance at home.
Wycombe, at home, had one win, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 23.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Bristol City

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

QPR

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Bournemouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Coventry

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Dec

Barnsley

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Preston

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Dec

Stoke

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Derby

A

1

1

D

U

G


Cardiff in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cardiff in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cardiff’s performance as a guest.
Cardiff, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cardiff was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Brentford

H

2

3

L

O

G

19 Dec

Norwich

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Dec

Birmingham

H

3

2

W

O

G

12 Dec

Swansea

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Dec

Stoke

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Watford

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Huddersfield

H

3

0

W

O

N

28 Nov

Luton

H

4

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wycombe and the red line for guest team, Cardiff.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wycombe

33%

35%

14%

17%

Cardiff

33%

32%

20%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wycombe to score 0.88 goals and Cardiff to score 1.54 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the guest team Cardiff to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.15 goals and Cardiff to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.09

0-1

3.01

1

4.50

2-3

2.23

2

4.44

4+

4.55

3

4.48

Ov 1.5

1.50

4

7.30

Un 1.5

3.01

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.26

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.24

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.89

3.02

3.10

2-3 goals

2.97

4.04

2.41

4+ goals

2.47

4.00

2.89

Ov 1.5

2.78

4.02

2.55

Un 1.5

2.89

3.02

3.10

Ov 2.5

2.31

8.05

2.26

Un 2.5

3.42

2.52

3.22

Ov 3.5

2.47

4.00

2.89

Un 3.5

2.93

3.53

2.66

Goal-Goal

3.30

2.69

3.08

No Goal

2.52

5.04

2.47

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.48

6.09

2.31

NG+Un 2.5

2.74

5.04

2.58


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Swansea vs Reading at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Swansea and Reading for Championship (England), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swansea

2.11

1.96

3.6

Draw

3.21

3.83

-5.0

Reading

3.72

4.37

-4.0

Over 2.5

2.35

2.10

5.1

Under 2.5

1.61

1.91

-9.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swansea, Over 2.5 (3.6 %, 5.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swansea in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Swansea in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance at home.
Swansea, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 21 points, 70.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

QPR

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Barnsley

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Dec

Derby

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Cardiff

A

2

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Bournemouth

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Luton

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Middlesbrough

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Nott’m Forest

A

1

0

W

U

N


Reading in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reading in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance as a guest.
Reading, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Luton

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Brentford

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Dec

Norwich

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

QPR

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Dec

Birmingham

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Nott’m Forest

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Sheffield Weds

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Bristol City

H

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swansea and the red line for guest team, Reading.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swansea

20%

32%

28%

20%

Reading

35%

41%

15%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.3 goals and Reading to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and the home team Swansea to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.49 goals and Reading to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Swansea to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.80

1

5.15

2-3

1.96

2

3.85

4+

4.42

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.80

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.10

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.42

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.33

3.81

3.25

2-3 goals

1.80

3.84

5.44

4+ goals

2.00

3.83

4.19

Ov 1.5

1.86

3.84

4.98

Un 1.5

2.33

3.81

3.25

Ov 2.5

1.60

8.08

4.01

Un 2.5

2.48

2.59

4.75

Ov 3.5

2.00

3.83

4.19

Un 3.5

1.95

3.83

4.42

Goal-Goal

2.29

2.71

5.16

No Goal

1.70

6.94

3.74

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.70

6.58

3.84

NG+Un 2.5

1.85

6.94

3.55


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sheffield Weds vs Middlesbrough at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sheffield Weds and Middlesbrough for Championship (England), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sheffield Weds

3.72

2.36

15.5

Draw

3.04

3.57

-4.9

Middlesbrough

2.21

3.38

-15.7

Over 2.5

2.57

2.28

4.9

Under 2.5

1.52

1.78

-9.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sheffield Weds, Over 2.5 (15.5 %, 4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sheffield Weds in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield Weds in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance at home.
Sheffield Weds, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Blackburn

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Coventry

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Nott’m Forest

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Barnsley

H

1

2

L

O

G

08 Dec

Huddersfield

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Norwich

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Reading

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Stoke

H

0

0

D

U

N


Middlesbrough in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Middlesbrough in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance as a guest.
Middlesbrough, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Birmingham

A

4

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Luton

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Millwall

H

3

0

W

O

N

09 Dec

Preston

A

0

3

L

O

N

05 Dec

Stoke

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Dec

Swansea

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Huddersfield

A

2

3

L

O

G

25 Nov

Derby

H

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sheffield Weds and the red line for guest team, Middlesbrough.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sheffield Weds

32%

31%

16%

21%

Middlesbrough

40%

34%

12%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sheffield Weds to score 0.85 goals and Middlesbrough to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and the guest team Middlesbrough to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sheffield Weds to score 1.27 goals and Middlesbrough to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.87

0-1

2.81

1

4.37

2-3

2.34

2

4.85

4+

4.63

3

4.52

Ov 1.5

1.56

4

7.35

Un 1.5

2.81

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.29

6+

32.26

Un 2.5

1.78

Gg

2.44

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

1.70

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.92

2.80

3.33

2-3 goals