2020 12 29 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Virtus Bologna vs Victoria Libertas Pesaro at 30 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Virtus Bologna vs Victoria Libertas Pesaro at 30 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Bologna and Victoria Libertas Pesaro for Serie A, which will take place on 30 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Virtus Bologna

1.18

1.91

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

4.85

2.10

Virtus Bologna HC

-10.5

-1.50

Victoria Libertas Pesaro HC

+10.5

1.50

Point Line

159.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

68

73

7

5

L 1

76

66

Dec 20

A

Universo Treviso

W

98

72

7

4

W 2

87

69

Dec 13

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

77

60

6

4

W 1

80

65

Dec 6

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

78

83

5

4

L 1

73

74

Nov 22

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

91

71

5

3

W 1

88

72

Nov 7

H

Enel Brindisi

L

88

98

4

3

L 1

90

90

Nov 1

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

83

68

4

2

W 2

88

71

Oct 24

A

Openjobmetis Varese

W

85

73

3

2

W 1

79

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Victoria Libertas Pesaro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

84

74

7

5

W 2

87

80

Dec 19

A

Enel Brindisi

W

92

81

6

5

W 1

94

74

Dec 12

H

Fortitudo Bologna

L

70

78

5

5

L 2

68

80

Dec 6

A

Universo Treviso

L

81

91

5

4

L 1

72

87

Nov 22

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

84

63

5

3

W 4

88

66

Nov 8

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

85

78

4

3

W 3

79

79

Nov 1

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

95

83

3

3

W 2

90

80

Oct 25

A

Virtus Roma

W

84

69

2

3

W 1

77

74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Victoria Libertas Pesaro.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Victoria Libertas Pesaro and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Virtus Bologna (in the first graph) and by Victoria Libertas Pesaro in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Virtus Bologna will expected to score 80 points and the Victoria Libertas Pesaro 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Virtus Bologna

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

FG%

0.53

0.54

ASS

21.40

14.00

DRB

25.80

25.20

AST-TO

1.53

1.30

TRB

35.30

35.30

FTM

12.90

13.20

BL

2.40

1.10

FTA

18.10

18.00

PF-Fewer

20.60

20.60

ST

8.70

6.20

TO-Fewer

14.00

10.80

Ftper

0.71

0.73

ORBper

0.37

0.40

ORB

9.60

10.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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