2020 12 29 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Levante vs Betis at 29 December 2020
Cadiz vs Valladolid at 29 December 2020
Sevilla vs Villarreal at 29 December 2020
Barcelona vs Eibar at 29 December 2020
Ath Bilbao vs Sociedad at 30 December 2020
Osasuna vs Alaves at 30 December 2020
Granada vs Valencia at 31 December 2020
Elche vs Real Madrid at 31 December 2020
Celta vs Huesca at 31 December 2020
Ath Madrid vs Getafe at 31 December 2020


Levante vs Betis at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Levante and Betis for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Levante

2.45

2.00

9.2

Draw

3.30

3.92

-4.8

Betis

3.03

4.10

-8.6

Over 2.5

1.86

2.00

-3.8

Under 2.5

2.00

2.00

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Levante (9.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Levante in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance at home.
Levante, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Dec

Huesca

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Sociedad

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Barcelona

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Getafe

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Nov

Valladolid

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Elche

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Alaves

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Granada

A

1

1

D

U

G


Betis in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Betis in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Betis’s performance as a guest.
Betis, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Betis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

Cadiz

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Granada

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Villarreal

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Osasuna

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Nov

Eibar

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Nov

Ath Bilbao

A

0

4

L

O

N

07 Nov

Barcelona

A

2

5

L

O

G

01 Nov

Elche

H

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Levante and the red line for guest team, Betis.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Levante

21%

31%

25%

23%

Betis

36%

37%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Levante to score 1.4 goals and Betis to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Levante to score 1.51 goals and Betis to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Levante to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.86

1

5.38

2-3

2.04

2

4.17

4+

3.98

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.86

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.33

3.55

3.45

2-3 goals

1.87

4.27

4.31

4+ goals

1.95

3.69

4.65

Ov 1.5

1.90

4.05

4.42

Un 1.5

2.33

3.55

3.45

Ov 2.5

1.66

7.38

3.83

Un 2.5

2.51

2.65

4.46

Ov 3.5

1.95

3.69

4.65

Un 3.5

2.01

3.99

3.97

Goal-Goal

2.34

2.81

4.63

No Goal

1.73

6.67

3.69

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.81

5.87

3.59

NG+Un 2.5

1.93

6.67

3.43


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Cadiz vs Valladolid at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Cadiz and Valladolid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cadiz

2.95

2.11

13.5

Draw

2.96

3.88

-8.0

Valladolid

2.82

3.75

-8.8

Over 2.5

2.79

1.95

15.4

Under 2.5

1.43

2.05

-21.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cadiz, Over 2.5 (13.5 %, 15.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cadiz in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cadiz in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cadiz’s performance at home.
Cadiz, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cadiz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

Betis

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Dec

Getafe

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Dec

Celta

A

0

4

L

O

N

05 Dec

Barcelona

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Elche

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Sociedad

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Ath Madrid

A

0

4

L

O

N

30 Oct

Eibar

A

2

0

W

U

N


Valladolid in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance as a guest.
Valladolid, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Dec

Barcelona

H

0

3

L

O

N

19 Dec

Sevilla

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Dec

Osasuna

H

3

2

W

O

G

05 Dec

Ath Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Nov

Levante

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Granada

A

3

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Ath Bilbao

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Villarreal

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cadiz and the red line for guest team, Valladolid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cadiz

22%

29%

27%

22%

Valladolid

31%

39%

19%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cadiz to score 0.95 goals and Valladolid to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.93 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cadiz to score 1.48 goals and Valladolid to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Cadiz to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

4.07

1

5.65

2-3

2.02

2

4.15

4+

3.85

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.02

Un 1.5

4.07

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.05

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.85

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

3.57

2.93

2-3 goals

1.91

4.33

4.05

4+ goals

2.08

3.47

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.97

3.99

4.14

Un 1.5

2.65

3.57

2.93

Ov 2.5

1.72

6.84

3.66

Un 2.5

2.74

2.66

3.87

Ov 3.5

2.08

3.47

4.33

Un 3.5

2.11

4.04

3.59

Goal-Goal

2.33

2.84

4.58

No Goal

1.89

6.72

3.11

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.83

5.63

3.61

NG+Un 2.5

2.10

6.72

2.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Sevilla vs Villarreal at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sevilla and Villarreal for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sevilla

2.23

2.06

3.7

Draw

3.32

3.76

-3.5

Villarreal

3.46

4.03

-4.1

Over 2.5

2.16

2.02

3.2

Under 2.5

1.73

1.98

-7.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sevilla, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sevilla in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance at home.
Sevilla, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Dec

Valencia

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Valladolid

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Real Madrid

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Huesca

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Celta

H

4

2

W

O

G

07 Nov

Osasuna

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Ath Bilbao

A

1

2

L

O

G


Villarreal in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Villarreal in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Villarreal’s performance as a guest.
Villarreal, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Villarreal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Dec

Ath Bilbao

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Osasuna

A

3

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Betis

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Elche

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Sociedad

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Real Madrid

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Getafe

A

3

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Valladolid

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sevilla and the red line for guest team, Villarreal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sevilla

20%

35%

20%

24%

Villarreal

33%

40%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.34 goals and Villarreal to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.49 goals and Villarreal to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

3.80

1

5.08

2-3

2.05

2

4.12

4+

3.97

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

5.99

Un 1.5

3.80

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.25

3.98

3.29

2-3 goals

2.13

3.45

4.16

4+ goals

1.79

4.27

4.85

Ov 1.5

2.00

3.69

4.37

Un 1.5

2.25

3.98

3.29

Ov 2.5

1.64

8.41

3.70

Un 2.5

2.75

2.44

4.40

Ov 3.5

1.79

4.27

4.85

Un 3.5

2.17

3.62

3.81

Goal-Goal

2.42

2.69

4.67

No Goal

1.75

7.05

3.47

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.78

6.71

3.44

NG+Un 2.5

1.98

7.05

3.17


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Barcelona vs Eibar at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Eibar for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barcelona

1.35

2.05

-25.3

Draw

5.53

3.89

7.6

Eibar

8.36

3.89

13.7

Over 2.5

1.49

2.04

-18.1

Under 2.5

2.55

1.96

11.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Eibar, Under 2.5 (7.6 %, 13.7 %, 11.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barcelona in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barcelona in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance at home.
Barcelona, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 17 points, 70.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Dec

Valladolid

A

3

0

W

O

N

19 Dec

Valencia

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Dec

Sociedad

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Levante

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Cadiz

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Osasuna

H

4

0

W

O

N

21 Nov

Ath Madrid

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Betis

H

5

2

W

O

G


Eibar in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eibar in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Eibar’s performance as a guest.
Eibar, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eibar was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Dec

Alaves

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Dec

Real Madrid

H

1

3

L

O

G

13 Dec

Sociedad

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Dec

Valencia

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Nov

Betis

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Getafe

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Huesca

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Oct

Cadiz

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barcelona and the red line for guest team, Eibar.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barcelona

22%

32%

25%

22%

Eibar

37%

34%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barcelona to score 2.52 goals and Eibar to score 0.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.15 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 1.88 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barcelona to score 1.47 goals and Eibar to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.70

1

5.26

2-3

2.06

2

4.18

4+

4.08

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.70

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.08

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.31

3.38

3.70