2020 12 29 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bristol Rvs vs Portsmouth at 29 December 2020
Swindon vs Milton Keynes Dons at 29 December 2020
Shrewsbury vs Blackpool at 29 December 2020
Rochdale vs Crewe at 29 December 2020
Plymouth vs Oxford at 29 December 2020
Northampton vs Gillingham at 29 December 2020
Hull vs Lincoln at 29 December 2020
Burton vs Wigan at 29 December 2020
Accrington vs Sunderland at 29 December 2020
Fleetwood Town vs Doncaster at 29 December 2020


Bristol Rvs vs Portsmouth at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bristol Rvs and Portsmouth for League One (England), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bristol Rvs

4.20

3.00

9.5

Draw

3.40

3.89

-3.7

Portsmouth

1.75

2.44

-16.2

Over 2.5

2.00

1.93

1.8

Under 2.5

1.73

2.07

-9.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bristol Rvs, Over 2.5 (9.5 %, 1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bristol Rvs in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol Rvs in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance at home.
Bristol Rvs, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Plymouth

H

3

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

A

4

2

W

O

G

02 Dec

Gillingham

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Nov

Wigan

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Swindon

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Nov

Fleetwood Town

H

1

4

L

O

G

03 Nov

Peterboro

H

0

2

L

U

N


Portsmouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance as a guest.
Portsmouth, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 20 points, 74.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Dec

Hull

A

2

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Fleetwood Town

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Ipswich

A

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Peterboro

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Blackpool

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Nov

Oxford

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Crewe

H

4

1

W

O

G

16 Nov

Plymouth

A

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bristol Rvs and the red line for guest team, Portsmouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bristol Rvs

33%

27%

24%

16%

Portsmouth

21%

38%

25%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bristol Rvs to score 0.84 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.56 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the guest team Portsmouth to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bristol Rvs to score 1.24 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.37 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

4.03

1

5.56

2-3

2.09

2

4.29

4+

3.66

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.02

Un 1.5

4.03

5

12.50

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

3.66

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.35

3.65

2.02

2-3 goals

2.75

4.64

2.38

4+ goals

2.68

3.17

3.21

Ov 1.5

2.72

3.97

2.63

Un 1.5

4.35

3.65

2.02

Ov 2.5

2.29

6.02

2.51

Un 2.5

4.50

2.81

2.37

Ov 3.5

2.68

3.17

3.21

Un 3.5

3.14

4.25

2.24

Goal-Goal

2.78

2.82

3.51

No Goal

3.30

6.85

1.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.24

5.00

2.83

NG+Un 2.5

3.53

6.85

1.86


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Swindon vs Milton Keynes Dons at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Swindon and Milton Keynes Dons for League One (England), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swindon

3.37

2.56

9.4

Draw

3.45

3.75

-2.3

Milton Keynes Dons

2.11

2.92

-13.1

Over 2.5

1.94

2.00

-1.5

Under 2.5

1.88

2.00

-3.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swindon (9.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swindon in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance at home.
Swindon, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Charlton

H

2

2

D

O

G

15 Dec

Doncaster

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Fleetwood Town

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Gillingham

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

Crewe

A

2

4

L

O

G

28 Nov

Oxford

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Lincoln

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Bristol Rvs

H

1

0

W

U

N


Milton Keynes Dons in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milton Keynes Dons in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance as a guest.
Milton Keynes Dons, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Bristol Rvs

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Plymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Peterboro

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Burton

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Accrington

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Charlton

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Shrewsbury

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Hull

H

1

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swindon and the red line for guest team, Milton Keynes Dons.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swindon

27%

31%

25%

17%

Milton Keynes Dons

26%

37%

24%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.04 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.46 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the guest team Milton Keynes Dons to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.32 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.94

1

5.49

2-3

2.04

2

4.08

4+

3.92

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.94

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.10

3.53

2.54

2-3 goals

2.41

4.31

2.84

4+ goals

2.43

3.15

3.70

Ov 1.5

2.41

3.83

3.08

Un 1.5

3.10

3.53

2.54

Ov 2.5

2.06

6.19

2.83

Un 2.5

3.37

2.68

3.02

Ov 3.5

2.43

3.15

3.70

Un 3.5

2.60

4.01

2.73

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.74

3.74

No Goal

2.40

6.46

2.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.14

5.20

2.94

NG+Un 2.5

2.60

6.46

2.33


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Shrewsbury vs Blackpool at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Shrewsbury and Blackpool for League One (England), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Shrewsbury

3.29

2.54

9.0

Draw

3.22

3.62

-3.4

Blackpool

2.26

3.03

-11.2

Over 2.5

2.27

2.12

3.1

Under 2.5

1.64

1.89

-8.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (9 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Shrewsbury in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance at home.
Shrewsbury, at home, had no wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Wigan

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Doncaster

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Lincoln

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Hull

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Charlton

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Dec

Accrington

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

Milton Keynes Dons

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Ipswich

A

1

2

L

O

G


Blackpool in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackpool in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance as a guest.
Blackpool, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Rochdale

A

4

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Hull

H

3

2

W

O

G

12 Dec

Oxford

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Fleetwood Town

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Portsmouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Doncaster

A

2

3

L

O

G

21 Nov

Peterboro

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Wigan

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Shrewsbury and the red line for guest team, Blackpool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Shrewsbury

26%

36%

23%

16%

Blackpool

29%

37%

24%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 0.97 goals and Blackpool to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.29 goals and Blackpool to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.70

1

5.10

2-3

1.99

2

3.86

4+

4.35

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.70

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

3.65

2.87

2-3 goals

2.55

3.86

2.87

4+ goals

2.42

3.15

3.71

Ov 1.5

2.51

3.61

3.09

Un 1.5

2.65

3.65

2.87

Ov 2.5

2.10

6.48

2.70

Un 2.5

3.13

2.59

3.39

Ov 3.5

2.42

3.15

3.71

Un 3.5

2.58

3.78

2.87

Goal-Goal

2.95

2.62

3.59

No Goal

2.20

6.36

2.57

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.23

5.49

2.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.36

6.36

2.56


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Rochdale vs Crewe at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Rochdale and Crewe for League One (England), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rochdale

3.62

2.56

11.4

Draw

3.41

3.69

-2.2

Crewe

2.02

2.95

-15.6

Over 2.5

2.00

2.04

-1.0

Under 2.5

1.81

1.96

-4.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rochdale (11.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rochdale in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance at home.
Rochdale, at home, had one win, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Blackpool

H

1

4

L

O

G

15 Dec

Wigan

A

5

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Peterboro

A

1

4

L

O

G

05 Dec

Lincoln

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

Plymouth

A

4

0

W

O

N

24 Nov

Northampton

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

AFC Wimbledon

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Oxford

A

1

3

L

O

G


Crewe in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Crewe in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance as a guest.
Crewe, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Fleetwood Town

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Plymouth

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Northampton

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Burton

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Dec

Swindon

H

4

2

W

O

G

24 Nov

Accrington

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Portsmouth

A

1

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rochdale and the red line for guest team, Crewe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rochdale

27%

33%

24%

17%

Crewe

27%

37%

24%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rochdale to score 0.97 goals and Crewe to score 1.47 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the guest team Crewe to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.31 goals and Crewe to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.85

1

5.35

2-3

2.02

2

3.98

4+

4.10

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.85

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

4.10

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.92

3.56

2.65