# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Bristol Rvs vs Portsmouth at 29 December 2020**** Swindon vs Milton Keynes Dons at 29 December 2020**** Shrewsbury vs Blackpool at 29 December 2020**** Rochdale vs Crewe at 29 December 2020**** Plymouth vs Oxford at 29 December 2020**** Northampton vs Gillingham at 29 December 2020**** Hull vs Lincoln at 29 December 2020**** Burton vs Wigan at 29 December 2020**** Accrington vs Sunderland at 29 December 2020**** Fleetwood Town vs Doncaster at 29 December 2020**

###
Bristol Rvs vs Portsmouth at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bristol Rvs** and **Portsmouth** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **29 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bristol Rvs |
4.20 |
3.00 |
9.5 |

Draw |
3.40 |
3.89 |
-3.7 |

Portsmouth |
1.75 |
2.44 |
-16.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
1.93 |
1.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
2.07 |
-9.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bristol Rvs, Over 2.5 (9.5 %, 1.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bristol Rvs** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bristol Rvs** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance** at home**.

Bristol Rvs,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Plymouth |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Gillingham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Wigan |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Swindon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Portsmouth** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portsmouth** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Portsmouth,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 20 points, 74.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

18 Dec |
Hull |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Ipswich |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Peterboro |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Crewe |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Nov |
Plymouth |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bristol Rvs** and the red line for guest team, **Portsmouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bristol Rvs |
33% |
27% |
24% |
16% |

Portsmouth |
21% |
38% |
25% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bristol Rvs** to score **0.84 ** goals and **Portsmouth** to score **1.56 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and the guest team **Portsmouth ** to win by **0.72** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bristol Rvs** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Portsmouth** to score **1.37 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.13** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
4.03 |

1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.29 |
4+ |
3.66 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.02 |
Un 1.5 |
4.03 |

5 |
12.50 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |

6+ |
37.04 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.66 |

NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.35 |
3.65 |
2.02 |

2-3 goals |
2.75 |
4.64 |
2.38 |

4+ goals |
2.68 |
3.17 |
3.21 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.72 |
3.97 |
2.63 |

Un 1.5 |
4.35 |
3.65 |
2.02 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |
6.02 |
2.51 |

Un 2.5 |
4.50 |
2.81 |
2.37 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.68 |
3.17 |
3.21 |

Un 3.5 |
3.14 |
4.25 |
2.24 |

Goal-Goal |
2.78 |
2.82 |
3.51 |

No Goal |
3.30 |
6.85 |
1.81 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
5.00 |
2.83 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.53 |
6.85 |
1.86 |

####
Go to Top

###
Swindon vs Milton Keynes Dons at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Swindon** and **Milton Keynes Dons** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **29 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Swindon |
3.37 |
2.56 |
9.4 |

Draw |
3.45 |
3.75 |
-2.3 |

Milton Keynes Dons |
2.11 |
2.92 |
-13.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.94 |
2.00 |
-1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
2.00 |
-3.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Swindon (9.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Swindon** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swindon** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance** at home**.

Swindon,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Charlton |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Gillingham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Crewe |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Oxford |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance** as a guest**.

Milton Keynes Dons,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Plymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Peterboro |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Burton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Charlton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Shrewsbury |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Hull |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Swindon** and the red line for guest team, **Milton Keynes Dons. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Swindon |
27% |
31% |
25% |
17% |

Milton Keynes Dons |
26% |
37% |
24% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Swindon** to score **1.04 ** goals and **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.46 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the guest team **Milton Keynes Dons ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Swindon** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.94 |

1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
3.92 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.94 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |

NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.10 |
3.53 |
2.54 |

2-3 goals |
2.41 |
4.31 |
2.84 |

4+ goals |
2.43 |
3.15 |
3.70 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.41 |
3.83 |
3.08 |

Un 1.5 |
3.10 |
3.53 |
2.54 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
6.19 |
2.83 |

Un 2.5 |
3.37 |
2.68 |
3.02 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.43 |
3.15 |
3.70 |

Un 3.5 |
2.60 |
4.01 |
2.73 |

Goal-Goal |
2.72 |
2.74 |
3.74 |

No Goal |
2.40 |
6.46 |
2.34 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
5.20 |
2.94 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.60 |
6.46 |
2.33 |

####
Go to Top

###
Shrewsbury vs Blackpool at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Shrewsbury** and **Blackpool** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **29 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Shrewsbury |
3.29 |
2.54 |
9.0 |

Draw |
3.22 |
3.62 |
-3.4 |

Blackpool |
2.26 |
3.03 |
-11.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.27 |
2.12 |
3.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.89 |
-8.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (9 %, 3.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Shrewsbury** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Shrewsbury** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance** at home**.

Shrewsbury,** at home**, had no wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 7 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Wigan |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Dec |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Hull |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Charlton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Dec |
Accrington |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Blackpool** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Blackpool** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance** as a guest**.

Blackpool,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Rochdale |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Hull |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Oxford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Portsmouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Doncaster |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Peterboro |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Shrewsbury** and the red line for guest team, **Blackpool. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Shrewsbury |
26% |
36% |
23% |
16% |

Blackpool |
29% |
37% |
24% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **0.97 ** goals and **Blackpool** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.29** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Blackpool** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.70 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.35 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.70 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.65 |
3.65 |
2.87 |

2-3 goals |
2.55 |
3.86 |
2.87 |

4+ goals |
2.42 |
3.15 |
3.71 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.51 |
3.61 |
3.09 |

Un 1.5 |
2.65 |
3.65 |
2.87 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
6.48 |
2.70 |

Un 2.5 |
3.13 |
2.59 |
3.39 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.42 |
3.15 |
3.71 |

Un 3.5 |
2.58 |
3.78 |
2.87 |

Goal-Goal |
2.95 |
2.62 |
3.59 |

No Goal |
2.20 |
6.36 |
2.57 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |
5.49 |
2.71 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.36 |
6.36 |
2.56 |

####
Go to Top

###
Rochdale vs Crewe at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rochdale** and **Crewe** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **29 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rochdale |
3.62 |
2.56 |
11.4 |

Draw |
3.41 |
3.69 |
-2.2 |

Crewe |
2.02 |
2.95 |
-15.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
2.04 |
-1.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.96 |
-4.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Rochdale (11.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rochdale** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rochdale** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance** at home**.

Rochdale,** at home**, had one win, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Blackpool |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Wigan |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Plymouth |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Nov |
Northampton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Oxford |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Crewe** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Crewe** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance** as a guest**.

Crewe,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Burton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Dec |
Swindon |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rochdale** and the red line for guest team, **Crewe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rochdale |
27% |
33% |
24% |
17% |

Crewe |
27% |
37% |
24% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rochdale** to score **0.97 ** goals and **Crewe** to score **1.47 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and the guest team **Crewe ** to win by **0.5** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rochdale** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Crewe** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.85 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.10 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.37 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |

5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.10 |

NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.92 |
3.56 |
2.65 |