2020 12 29 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bradford vs Port Vale at 29 December 2020
Colchester vs Cheltenham at 29 December 2020
Forest Green vs Crawley Town at 29 December 2020
Grimsby vs Oldham at 29 December 2020
Harrogate vs Carlisle at 29 December 2020
Leyton Orient vs Southend at 29 December 2020
Mansfield vs Salford at 29 December 2020
Newport County vs Exeter at 29 December 2020
Stevenage vs Cambridge at 29 December 2020
Walsall vs Scunthorpe at 29 December 2020
Barrow vs Tranmere at 29 December 2020
Bolton vs Morecambe at 29 December 2020


Bradford vs Port Vale at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bradford and Port Vale for League Two (England), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bradford

2.45

2.55

-1.6

Draw

3.34

3.60

-2.2

Port Vale

2.89

3.03

-1.6

Over 2.5

2.03

2.21

-4.0

Under 2.5

1.80

1.83

-0.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bradford in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bradford in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance at home.
Bradford, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Tranmere

A

1

0

W

U

N

22 Dec

Grimsby

A

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Cambridge

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Crawley Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Oldham

A

1

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Carlisle

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

Cheltenham

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Leyton Orient

A

0

1

L

U

N


Port Vale in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Port Vale in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance as a guest.
Port Vale, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Barrow

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Walsall

A

3

4

L

O

G

15 Dec

Forest Green

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Colchester

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Bolton

A

6

3

W

O

G

28 Nov

Leyton Orient

H

2

3

L

O

G

24 Nov

Stevenage

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Newport County

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bradford and the red line for guest team, Port Vale.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bradford

27%

36%

23%

15%

Port Vale

31%

36%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.28 goals and Port Vale to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.25 goals and Port Vale to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.44

1

4.81

2-3

2.04

2

3.91

4+

4.61

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.44

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.62

3.51

3.00

2-3 goals

2.49

3.80

2.99

4+ goals

2.58

3.34

3.19

Ov 1.5

2.52

3.64

3.05

Un 1.5

2.62

3.51

3.00

Ov 2.5

2.14

6.94

2.58

Un 2.5

3.02

2.58

3.55

Ov 3.5

2.58

3.34

3.19

Un 3.5

2.54

3.68

2.99

Goal-Goal

3.04

2.60

3.50

No Goal

2.19

5.95

2.67

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.26

5.77

2.60

NG+Un 2.5

2.31

5.95

2.71


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Colchester vs Cheltenham at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Colchester and Cheltenham for League Two (England), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Colchester

3.71

2.46

13.7

Draw

3.68

3.58

0.8

Cheltenham

1.94

3.17

-20.0

Over 2.5

1.86

2.26

-9.5

Under 2.5

1.94

1.80

4.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Colchester, Draw, Under 2.5 (13.7 %, 0.8 %, 4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Colchester in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Colchester in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance at home.
Colchester, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 20 points, 74.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Southend

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Morecambe

H

1

2

L

O

G

15 Dec

Cambridge

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Port Vale

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Dec

Scunthorpe

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Grimsby

H

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Crawley Town

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Exeter

A

1

6

L

O

G


Cheltenham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance as a guest.
Cheltenham, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Stevenage

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Barrow

A

0

3

L

O

N

15 Dec

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Salford

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Exeter

H

5

3

W

O

G

01 Dec

Bradford

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Cambridge

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Walsall

H

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Colchester and the red line for guest team, Cheltenham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Colchester

27%

35%

23%

15%

Cheltenham

32%

37%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Colchester to score 0.99 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the guest team Cheltenham to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Colchester to score 1.26 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.63

0-1

3.37

1

4.74

2-3

2.03

2

3.85

4+

4.81

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.37

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.81

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.63

3.45

3.03

2-3 goals

2.37

3.79

3.18

4+ goals

2.48

3.30

3.41

Ov 1.5

2.40

3.63

3.25

Un 1.5

2.63

3.45

3.03

Ov 2.5

2.03

7.00

2.74

Un 2.5

2.96

2.58

3.64

Ov 3.5

2.48

3.30

3.41

Un 3.5

2.46

3.66

3.12

Goal-Goal

2.92

2.57

3.73

No Goal

2.14

5.84

2.77

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.15

5.81

2.75

NG+Un 2.5

2.27

5.84

2.79


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Forest Green vs Crawley Town at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Forest Green and Crawley Town for League Two (England), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Forest Green

1.89

2.17

-6.8

Draw

3.67

3.76

-0.7

Crawley Town

3.96

3.65

2.1

Over 2.5

1.91

2.10

-4.7

Under 2.5

1.89

1.91

-0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crawley Town (2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Forest Green in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Forest Green in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance at home.
Forest Green, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 18 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Exeter

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Carlisle

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Port Vale

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Cambridge

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Harrogate

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Newport County

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Southend

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Barrow

A

2

2

D

O

G


Crawley Town in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Crawley Town in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance as a guest.
Crawley Town, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Newport County

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Leyton Orient

A

2

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Bradford

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Barrow

H

4

2

W

O

G

05 Dec

Mansfield

A

3

3

D

O

G

01 Dec

Colchester

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Grimsby

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Carlisle

H

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Forest Green and the red line for guest team, Crawley Town.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Forest Green

23%

32%

28%

18%

Crawley Town

34%

36%

21%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Forest Green to score 1.6 goals and Crawley Town to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Forest Green to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Forest Green to score 1.4 goals and Crawley Town to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Forest Green to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.73

1

5.26

2-3

1.99

2

3.91

4+

4.37

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.73

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.37

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

3.44

3.23

2-3 goals

1.98

4.40

3.72

4+ goals

2.29

3.09

4.16

Ov 1.5

2.07

3.89

3.85

Un 1.5

2.50

3.44

3.23

Ov 2.5

1.83

6.42

3.35

Un 2.5

2.61

2.73

4.00

Ov 3.5

2.29

3.09

4.16

Un 3.5

2.14

4.01

3.53

Goal-Goal

2.54

2.71

4.21

No Goal

1.88

6.28

3.22

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.97

5.34

3.26

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

6.28

3.13


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Grimsby vs Oldham at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Grimsby and Oldham for League Two (England), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Grimsby

3.09

2.34

10.4

Draw

3.56

3.58

-0.2

Oldham

2.21

3.41

-15.9

Over 2.5

1.83

2.24

-10.0

Under 2.5

1.98

1.81

4.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Grimsby, Under 2.5 (10.4 %, 4.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Grimsby in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Grimsby in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance at home.
Grimsby, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Morecambe

A

1

3

L

O

G

22 Dec

Bradford

H

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Scunthorpe

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Southend

A

1

3

L

O

G

12 Dec

Mansfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Dec

Newport County

H

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Colchester

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Dec

Exeter

H

1

4

L

O

G


Oldham in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oldham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance as a guest.
Oldham, as a guest, had 6 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 70.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Harrogate

H

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Newport County

A

4

2

W

O

G

15 Dec

Walsall

H

2

3

L

O

G

12 Dec

Bradford

H

3

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Cambridge

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Tranmere

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Nov

Barrow

A

4

3

W

O

G

21 Nov

Exeter

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Grimsby and the red line for guest team, Oldham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Grimsby

24%

38%

21%

17%

Oldham

33%

37%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Grimsby to score 1.15 goals and Oldham to score 1.47 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the guest team Oldham to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Grimsby to score 1.31 goals and Oldham to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.40

1

4.65

2-3

2.02

2

3.83

4+

4.72

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.40

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.72

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.33

3.72

3.30

2-3 goals

2.41

3.49