# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Bradford vs Port Vale at 29 December 2020**** Colchester vs Cheltenham at 29 December 2020**** Forest Green vs Crawley Town at 29 December 2020**** Grimsby vs Oldham at 29 December 2020**** Harrogate vs Carlisle at 29 December 2020**** Leyton Orient vs Southend at 29 December 2020**** Mansfield vs Salford at 29 December 2020**** Newport County vs Exeter at 29 December 2020**** Stevenage vs Cambridge at 29 December 2020**** Walsall vs Scunthorpe at 29 December 2020**** Barrow vs Tranmere at 29 December 2020**** Bolton vs Morecambe at 29 December 2020**

###
Bradford vs Port Vale at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bradford** and **Port Vale** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **29 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bradford |
2.45 |
2.55 |
-1.6 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.60 |
-2.2 |

Port Vale |
2.89 |
3.03 |
-1.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.21 |
-4.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
1.83 |
-0.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bradford** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bradford** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance** at home**.

Bradford,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Crawley Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Carlisle |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Port Vale** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Port Vale** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance** as a guest**.

Port Vale,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Barrow |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Colchester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Bolton |
A |
6 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bradford** and the red line for guest team, **Port Vale. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bradford |
27% |
36% |
23% |
15% |

Port Vale |
31% |
36% |
21% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bradford** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Port Vale** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bradford** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Port Vale** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.44 |

1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.44 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.62 |
3.51 |
3.00 |

2-3 goals |
2.49 |
3.80 |
2.99 |

4+ goals |
2.58 |
3.34 |
3.19 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.52 |
3.64 |
3.05 |

Un 1.5 |
2.62 |
3.51 |
3.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
6.94 |
2.58 |

Un 2.5 |
3.02 |
2.58 |
3.55 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.58 |
3.34 |
3.19 |

Un 3.5 |
2.54 |
3.68 |
2.99 |

Goal-Goal |
3.04 |
2.60 |
3.50 |

No Goal |
2.19 |
5.95 |
2.67 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
5.77 |
2.60 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.31 |
5.95 |
2.71 |

####
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###
Colchester vs Cheltenham at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Colchester** and **Cheltenham** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **29 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Colchester |
3.71 |
2.46 |
13.7 |

Draw |
3.68 |
3.58 |
0.8 |

Cheltenham |
1.94 |
3.17 |
-20.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.86 |
2.26 |
-9.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
1.80 |
4.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Colchester, Draw, Under 2.5 (13.7 %, 0.8 %, 4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Colchester** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Colchester** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance** at home**.

Colchester,** at home**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 20 points, 74.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Southend |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Grimsby |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** as a guest**.

Cheltenham,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Salford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Exeter |
H |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Walsall |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Colchester** and the red line for guest team, **Cheltenham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Colchester |
27% |
35% |
23% |
15% |

Cheltenham |
32% |
37% |
21% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Colchester** to score **0.99 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.59 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and the guest team **Cheltenham ** to win by **0.6** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Colchester** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.16** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.63 |
0-1 |
3.37 |

1 |
4.74 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.81 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.37 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.81 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.63 |
3.45 |
3.03 |

2-3 goals |
2.37 |
3.79 |
3.18 |

4+ goals |
2.48 |
3.30 |
3.41 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.40 |
3.63 |
3.25 |

Un 1.5 |
2.63 |
3.45 |
3.03 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
7.00 |
2.74 |

Un 2.5 |
2.96 |
2.58 |
3.64 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.48 |
3.30 |
3.41 |

Un 3.5 |
2.46 |
3.66 |
3.12 |

Goal-Goal |
2.92 |
2.57 |
3.73 |

No Goal |
2.14 |
5.84 |
2.77 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
5.81 |
2.75 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.27 |
5.84 |
2.79 |

####
Go to Top

###
Forest Green vs Crawley Town at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Forest Green** and **Crawley Town** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **29 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Forest Green |
1.89 |
2.17 |
-6.8 |

Draw |
3.67 |
3.76 |
-0.7 |

Crawley Town |
3.96 |
3.65 |
2.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.91 |
2.10 |
-4.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.89 |
1.91 |
-0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crawley Town (2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Forest Green** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Forest Green** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance** at home**.

Forest Green,** at home**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 18 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Cambridge |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Southend |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Barrow |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Crawley Town** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Crawley Town** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance** as a guest**.

Crawley Town,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 7 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Barrow |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Mansfield |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Carlisle |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Forest Green** and the red line for guest team, **Crawley Town. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Forest Green |
23% |
32% |
28% |
18% |

Crawley Town |
34% |
36% |
21% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Forest Green** to score **1.6 ** goals and **Crawley Town** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Forest Green ** to win by **0.67** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Forest Green** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Crawley Town** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Forest Green ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.73 |

1 |
5.26 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.37 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.73 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.37 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.50 |
3.44 |
3.23 |

2-3 goals |
1.98 |
4.40 |
3.72 |

4+ goals |
2.29 |
3.09 |
4.16 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.07 |
3.89 |
3.85 |

Un 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.44 |
3.23 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
6.42 |
3.35 |

Un 2.5 |
2.61 |
2.73 |
4.00 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.29 |
3.09 |
4.16 |

Un 3.5 |
2.14 |
4.01 |
3.53 |

Goal-Goal |
2.54 |
2.71 |
4.21 |

No Goal |
1.88 |
6.28 |
3.22 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
5.34 |
3.26 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
6.28 |
3.13 |

####
Go to Top

###
Grimsby vs Oldham at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Grimsby** and **Oldham** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **29 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Grimsby |
3.09 |
2.34 |
10.4 |

Draw |
3.56 |
3.58 |
-0.2 |

Oldham |
2.21 |
3.41 |
-15.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.83 |
2.24 |
-10.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.98 |
1.81 |
4.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Grimsby, Under 2.5 (10.4 %, 4.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Grimsby** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Grimsby** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance** at home**.

Grimsby,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Southend |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Dec |
Newport County |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Exeter |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**Oldham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oldham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance** as a guest**.

Oldham,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 70.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 7 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Newport County |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Barrow |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Grimsby** and the red line for guest team, **Oldham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Grimsby |
24% |
38% |
21% |
17% |

Oldham |
33% |
37% |
20% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Grimsby** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Oldham** to score **1.47 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and the guest team **Oldham ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Grimsby** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Oldham** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.40 |

1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.83 |
4+ |
4.72 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.40 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.72 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.33 |
3.72 |
3.30 |

2-3 goals |
2.41 |
3.49 |