2020 12 29 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Burnley vs Sheffield United at 29 December 2020
Man United vs Wolves at 29 December 2020
Southampton vs West Ham at 29 December 2020
West Brom vs Leeds at 29 December 2020
Brighton vs Arsenal at 29 December 2020
Newcastle vs Liverpool at 30 December 2020
Tottenham vs Fulham at 30 December 2020


Burnley vs Sheffield United at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Burnley and Sheffield United for Premier League (England), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Burnley

2.40

2.01

8.1

Draw

3.18

3.94

-6.1

Sheffield United

3.27

4.03

-5.8

Over 2.5

2.51

2.03

9.4

Under 2.5

1.55

1.97

-13.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Burnley, Over 2.5 (8.1 %, 9.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Burnley in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burnley in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance at home.
Burnley, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Leeds

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Dec

Wolves

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Dec

Aston Villa

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Dec

Arsenal

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Everton

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Man City

A

0

5

L

O

N

23 Nov

Crystal Palace

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Nov

Brighton

A

0

0

D

U

N


Sheffield United in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield United in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance as a guest.
Sheffield United, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 4.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Everton

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Dec

Brighton

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Dec

Man United

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Dec

Southampton

A

0

3

L

O

N

06 Dec

Leicester

H

1

2

L

O

G

28 Nov

West Brom

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Nov

West Ham

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Chelsea

A

1

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Burnley and the red line for guest team, Sheffield United.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Burnley

20%

28%

35%

17%

Sheffield United

35%

36%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Burnley to score 1.16 goals and Sheffield United to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Burnley to score 1.48 goals and Sheffield United to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Burnley to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

4.08

1

5.78

2-3

1.93

2

3.83

4+

4.26

3

3.89

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.58

Un 1.5

4.08

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.26

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.47

3.40

3.31

2-3 goals

1.68

5.13

4.75

4+ goals

2.61

2.94

3.62

Ov 1.5

1.89

4.16

4.33

Un 1.5

2.47

3.40

3.31

Ov 2.5

1.79

6.15

3.59

Un 2.5

2.28

2.92

4.56

Ov 3.5

2.61

2.94

3.62

Un 3.5

1.87

4.41

4.17

Goal-Goal

2.38

2.83

4.42

No Goal

1.73

6.74

3.67

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

5.15

3.55

NG+Un 2.5

1.82

6.74

3.65


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Man United vs Wolves at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Man United and Wolves for Premier League (England), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Man United

1.61

2.18

-16.2

Draw

4.10

3.64

3.1

Wolves

5.84

3.73

9.7

Over 2.5

1.92

2.17

-6.0

Under 2.5

1.92

1.85

2.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Wolves, Under 2.5 (3.1 %, 9.7 %, 2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Man United in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man United in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance at home.
Man United, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Leicester

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Leeds

H

6

2

W

O

G

17 Dec

Sheffield United

A

3

2

W

O

G

12 Dec

Man City

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

West Ham

A

3

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Southampton

A

3

2

W

O

G

21 Nov

West Brom

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Everton

A

3

1

W

O

G


Wolves in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolves in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance as a guest.
Wolves, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Tottenham

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Dec

Burnley

A

1

2

L

O

G

15 Dec

Chelsea

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Aston Villa

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Liverpool

A

0

4

L

O

N

29 Nov

Arsenal

A

2

1

W

O

G

23 Nov

Southampton

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Leicester

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Man United and the red line for guest team, Wolves.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Man United

20%

42%

17%

21%

Wolves

35%

36%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man United to score 1.82 goals and Wolves to score 0.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Man United to win by 1.1 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man United to score 1.39 goals and Wolves to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Man United to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.41

1

4.52

2-3

2.09

2

4.07

4+

4.39

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.41

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.39

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.99

4.07

3.96

2-3 goals

2.46

3.19

3.57

4+ goals

1.97

4.38

3.80

Ov 1.5

2.27

3.50

3.64

Un 1.5

1.99

4.07

3.96

Ov 2.5

1.83

8.87

2.94

Un 2.5

2.62

2.43

4.86

Ov 3.5

1.97

4.38

3.80

Un 3.5

2.26

3.48

3.71

Goal-Goal

2.92

2.54

3.78

No Goal

1.72

6.75

3.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

7.00

2.68

NG+Un 2.5

1.89

6.75

3.50


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Southampton vs West Ham at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Southampton and West Ham for Premier League (England), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Southampton

2.32

2.00

6.9

Draw

3.41

3.92

-3.8

West Ham

3.20

4.07

-6.7

Over 2.5

1.96

1.97

-0.3

Under 2.5

1.88

2.03

-3.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Southampton (6.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Southampton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southampton in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance at home.
Southampton, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Fulham

A

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Man City

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Dec

Arsenal

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Sheffield United

H

3

0

W

O

N

07 Dec

Brighton

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Man United

H

2

3

L

O

G

23 Nov

Wolves

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Nov

Newcastle

H

2

0

W

U

N


West Ham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Ham in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance as a guest.
West Ham, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Brighton

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Dec

Chelsea

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Dec

Crystal Palace

H

1

1

D

U

G

11 Dec

Leeds

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Man United

H

1

3

L

O

G

30 Nov

Aston Villa

H

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Sheffield United

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Fulham

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Southampton and the red line for guest team, West Ham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Southampton

20%

32%

22%

25%

West Ham

35%

36%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southampton to score 1.39 goals and West Ham to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southampton to score 1.52 goals and West Ham to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Southampton to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.86

1

5.35

2-3

2.08

2

4.33

4+

3.85

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.06

Un 1.5

3.86

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.85

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.29

3.60

3.50

2-3 goals

1.93

4.17

4.14

4+ goals

1.90

3.88

4.64

Ov 1.5

1.92

4.07

4.30

Un 1.5

2.29

3.60

3.50

Ov 2.5

1.66

7.60

3.77

Un 2.5

2.55

2.62

4.41

Ov 3.5

1.90

3.88

4.64

Un 3.5

2.04

3.95

3.89

Goal-Goal

2.36

2.82

4.51

No Goal

1.73

6.74

3.67

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.83

5.96

3.50

NG+Un 2.5

1.95

6.74

3.38


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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West Brom vs Leeds at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between West Brom and Leeds for Premier League (England), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

West Brom

3.60

3.47

1.0

Draw

3.69

4.12

-2.8

Leeds

2.03

2.13

-2.3

Over 2.5

1.65

1.81

-5.4

Under 2.5

2.31

2.24

1.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at West Brom, Under 2.5 (1 %, 1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

West Brom in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Brom in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance at home.
West Brom, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Brom was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Liverpool

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Aston Villa

H

0

3

L

O

N

15 Dec

Man City

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Newcastle

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Crystal Palace

H

1

5

L

O

G

28 Nov

Sheffield United

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Man United

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Tottenham

H

0

1

L

U

N


Leeds in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leeds in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance as a guest.
Leeds, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Burnley

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Man United

A

2

6

L

O

G

16 Dec

Newcastle

H

5

2

W

O

G

11 Dec

West Ham

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Chelsea

A

1

3

L

O

G

28 Nov

Everton

A

1

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Arsenal

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Nov

Crystal Palace

A

1

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, West Brom and the red line for guest team, Leeds.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

West Brom

37%

20%

31%

12%

Leeds

20%

31%

26%

24%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) West Brom to score 1.15 goals and Leeds to score 1.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.9 goals in the game and the guest team Leeds to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) West Brom to score 1.18 goals and Leeds to score 1.53 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the guest team Leeds to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

4.37

1

6.45

2-3

2.10

2

4.59

4+

3.38

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

6.10

Un 1.5

4.37

5

9.62

Ov 2.5

1.81

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

2.24

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

3.38

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.59

3.09

2.01