# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Burnley vs Sheffield United at 29 December 2020**** Man United vs Wolves at 29 December 2020**** Southampton vs West Ham at 29 December 2020**** West Brom vs Leeds at 29 December 2020**** Brighton vs Arsenal at 29 December 2020**** Newcastle vs Liverpool at 30 December 2020**** Tottenham vs Fulham at 30 December 2020**

###
Burnley vs Sheffield United at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Burnley** and **Sheffield United** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **29 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Burnley |
2.40 |
2.01 |
8.1 |

Draw |
3.18 |
3.94 |
-6.1 |

Sheffield United |
3.27 |
4.03 |
-5.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.51 |
2.03 |
9.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.55 |
1.97 |
-13.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Burnley, Over 2.5 (8.1 %, 9.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Burnley** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Burnley** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance** at home**.

Burnley,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Dec |
Leeds |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Dec |
Wolves |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Dec |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Everton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Man City |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Nov |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Nov |
Brighton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Sheffield United** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield United** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance** as a guest**.

Sheffield United,** as a guest**, had no wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 4.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Everton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Dec |
Man United |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Chelsea |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Burnley** and the red line for guest team, **Sheffield United. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Burnley |
20% |
28% |
35% |
17% |

Sheffield United |
35% |
36% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Burnley** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Sheffield United** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.1** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Burnley** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Sheffield United** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Burnley ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
4.08 |

1 |
5.78 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
3.83 |
4+ |
4.26 |

3 |
3.89 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
4.08 |

5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.26 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.47 |
3.40 |
3.31 |

2-3 goals |
1.68 |
5.13 |
4.75 |

4+ goals |
2.61 |
2.94 |
3.62 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.89 |
4.16 |
4.33 |

Un 1.5 |
2.47 |
3.40 |
3.31 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |
6.15 |
3.59 |

Un 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.92 |
4.56 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.61 |
2.94 |
3.62 |

Un 3.5 |
1.87 |
4.41 |
4.17 |

Goal-Goal |
2.38 |
2.83 |
4.42 |

No Goal |
1.73 |
6.74 |
3.67 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
5.15 |
3.55 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
6.74 |
3.65 |

####
Go to Top

###
Man United vs Wolves at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Man United** and **Wolves** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **29 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Man United |
1.61 |
2.18 |
-16.2 |

Draw |
4.10 |
3.64 |
3.1 |

Wolves |
5.84 |
3.73 |
9.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.92 |
2.17 |
-6.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.92 |
1.85 |
2.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Wolves, Under 2.5 (3.1 %, 9.7 %, 2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Man United** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man United** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance** at home**.

Man United,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Leeds |
H |
6 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Dec |
Sheffield United |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Man City |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
West Ham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Southampton |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
West Brom |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Everton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Wolves** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolves** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance** as a guest**.

Wolves,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Dec |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Liverpool |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Nov |
Arsenal |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Nov |
Southampton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Leicester |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Man United** and the red line for guest team, **Wolves. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Man United |
20% |
42% |
17% |
21% |

Wolves |
35% |
36% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Man United** to score **1.82 ** goals and **Wolves** to score **0.72 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the home team **Man United ** to win by **1.1** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Man United** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Wolves** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Man United ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.41 |

1 |
4.52 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
4.39 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.41 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.39 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.99 |
4.07 |
3.96 |

2-3 goals |
2.46 |
3.19 |
3.57 |

4+ goals |
1.97 |
4.38 |
3.80 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.27 |
3.50 |
3.64 |

Un 1.5 |
1.99 |
4.07 |
3.96 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
8.87 |
2.94 |

Un 2.5 |
2.62 |
2.43 |
4.86 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.97 |
4.38 |
3.80 |

Un 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.48 |
3.71 |

Goal-Goal |
2.92 |
2.54 |
3.78 |

No Goal |
1.72 |
6.75 |
3.68 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
7.00 |
2.68 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.89 |
6.75 |
3.50 |

####
Go to Top

###
Southampton vs West Ham at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Southampton** and **West Ham** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **29 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Southampton |
2.32 |
2.00 |
6.9 |

Draw |
3.41 |
3.92 |
-3.8 |

West Ham |
3.20 |
4.07 |
-6.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.97 |
-0.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
2.03 |
-3.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Southampton (6.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Southampton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southampton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance** at home**.

Southampton,** at home**, had 4 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Man City |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Sheffield United |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

07 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Man United |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Nov |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Nov |
Newcastle |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**West Ham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Ham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance** as a guest**.

West Ham,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Dec |
Brighton |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Dec |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Dec |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Dec |
Leeds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Man United |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Nov |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Southampton** and the red line for guest team, **West Ham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Southampton |
20% |
32% |
22% |
25% |

West Ham |
35% |
36% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Southampton** to score **1.39 ** goals and **West Ham** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.28** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Southampton** to score **1.52 ** goals and **West Ham** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and the home team **Southampton ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.86 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.33 |
4+ |
3.85 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
3.86 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.85 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.29 |
3.60 |
3.50 |

2-3 goals |
1.93 |
4.17 |
4.14 |

4+ goals |
1.90 |
3.88 |
4.64 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.92 |
4.07 |
4.30 |

Un 1.5 |
2.29 |
3.60 |
3.50 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
7.60 |
3.77 |

Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.62 |
4.41 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.90 |
3.88 |
4.64 |

Un 3.5 |
2.04 |
3.95 |
3.89 |

Goal-Goal |
2.36 |
2.82 |
4.51 |

No Goal |
1.73 |
6.74 |
3.67 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
5.96 |
3.50 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.95 |
6.74 |
3.38 |

####
Go to Top

###
West Brom vs Leeds at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **West Brom** and **Leeds** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **29 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

West Brom |
3.60 |
3.47 |
1.0 |

Draw |
3.69 |
4.12 |
-2.8 |

Leeds |
2.03 |
2.13 |
-2.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.81 |
-5.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.31 |
2.24 |
1.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **West Brom, Under 2.5 (1 %, 1.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**West Brom** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Brom** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance** at home**.

West Brom,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Brom was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Dec |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Man City |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Man United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Tottenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Leeds** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leeds** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance** as a guest**.

Leeds,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Dec |
Burnley |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Man United |
A |
2 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Newcastle |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Dec |
West Ham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Chelsea |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Everton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Crystal Palace |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **West Brom** and the red line for guest team, **Leeds. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

West Brom |
37% |
20% |
31% |
12% |

Leeds |
20% |
31% |
26% |
24% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **West Brom** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Leeds** to score **1.75 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.9** goals in the game and the guest team **Leeds ** to win by **0.6** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **West Brom** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Leeds** to score **1.53 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and the guest team **Leeds ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
4.37 |

1 |
6.45 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.59 |
4+ |
3.38 |

3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
4.37 |

5 |
9.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |

6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
2.24 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.38 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
5.59 |
3.09 |
2.01 |