# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Benfica vs Portimonense at 29 December 2020**** Moreirense vs Santa Clara at 29 December 2020**** Guimaraes vs Porto at 30 December 2020**

###
Benfica vs Portimonense at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Benfica** and **Portimonense** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **29 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Benfica |
1.23 |
1.56 |
-17.2 |

Draw |
6.25 |
4.52 |
6.1 |

Portimonense |
11.56 |
7.14 |
5.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.55 |
2.22 |
-19.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.42 |
1.82 |
13.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Portimonense, Under 2.5 (6.1 %, 5.4 %, 13.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Benfica** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Benfica scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Benfica** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Benfica** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Benfica’s performance** at home**.

Benfica,** at home**, had 4 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 80.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Benfica** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Benfica was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Nov |
Maritimo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Nov |
Boavista |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

26 Oct |
Belenenses |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Oct |
Rio Ave |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

04 Oct |
Farense |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Portimonense** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portimonense** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance** as a guest**.

Portimonense,** as a guest**, had one win, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

18 Dec |
Famalicao |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Guimaraes |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Nacional |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Porto |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Oct |
Tondela |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Maritimo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Benfica** and the red line for guest team, **Portimonense. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Benfica |
16% |
30% |
27% |
26% |

Portimonense |
54% |
27% |
16% |
3% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Benfica** to score **2.56 ** goals and **Portimonense** to score **0.48 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.04** goals in the game and the home team **Benfica ** to win by **2.08** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Benfica** to score **1.64 ** goals and **Portimonense** to score **0.68 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and the home team **Benfica ** to win by **0.96** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.37 |

1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
1.91 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
5.49 |

3 |
3.70 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
8.06 |
Un 1.5 |
3.37 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
142.86 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
2.59 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.49 |

NoG |
1.62 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.80 |
3.38 |
6.75 |

2-3 goals |
1.45 |
6.38 |
6.46 |

4+ goals |
1.60 |
3.57 |
10.71 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |
5.30 |
7.19 |

Un 1.5 |
1.80 |
3.38 |
6.75 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.37 |
8.86 |
6.28 |

Un 2.5 |
1.77 |
3.24 |
7.86 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.60 |
3.57 |
10.71 |

Un 3.5 |
1.56 |
4.82 |
6.56 |

Goal-Goal |
2.08 |
2.90 |
5.76 |

No Goal |
1.36 |
7.00 |
8.21 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.63 |
5.96 |
4.54 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.51 |
7.00 |
6.69 |

####
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###
Moreirense vs Santa Clara at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Moreirense** and **Santa Clara** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **29 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Moreirense |
2.83 |
2.50 |
4.7 |

Draw |
2.86 |
3.62 |
-7.3 |

Santa Clara |
2.77 |
3.09 |
-3.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.50 |
2.22 |
5.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.54 |
1.82 |
-10.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Moreirense, Over 2.5 (4.7 %, 5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Moreirense** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Moreirense** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance** at home**.

Moreirense,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Moreirense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Tondela |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Gil Vicente |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Dec |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Belenenses |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Oct |
Boavista |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Santa Clara** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Santa Clara** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance** as a guest**.

Santa Clara,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Dec |
Guimaraes |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Nacional |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Porto |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Tondela |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Portimonense |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Gil Vicente |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Moreirense** and the red line for guest team, **Santa Clara. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Moreirense |
28% |
35% |
22% |
16% |

Santa Clara |
32% |
36% |
19% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Moreirense** to score **1.04 ** goals and **Santa Clara** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.09** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.01** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Moreirense** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Santa Clara** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.24 |
0-1 |
3.31 |

1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.31 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.70 |
3.39 |
2.99 |

2-3 goals |
2.40 |
3.76 |
3.14 |

4+ goals |
2.47 |
3.67 |
3.10 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.42 |
3.73 |
3.13 |

Un 1.5 |
2.70 |
3.39 |
2.99 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
7.50 |
2.63 |

Un 2.5 |
3.04 |
2.55 |
3.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.47 |
3.67 |
3.10 |

Un 3.5 |
2.51 |
3.61 |
3.08 |

Goal-Goal |
2.92 |
2.63 |
3.61 |

No Goal |
2.19 |
5.72 |
2.71 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
6.07 |
2.68 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
5.72 |
2.76 |

####
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###
Guimaraes vs Porto at 30 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Guimaraes** and **Porto** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **30 Dec 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Guimaraes |
5.00 |
4.83 |
0.7 |

Draw |
3.82 |
3.97 |
-1.0 |

Porto |
1.67 |
1.85 |
-5.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.87 |
2.15 |
-7.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
1.87 |
1.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Guimaraes, Under 2.5 (0.7 %, 1.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Guimaraes** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Guimaraes** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance** at home**.

Guimaraes,** at home**, had 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Dec |
Santa Clara |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Portimonense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Nov |
Tondela |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Sp Braga |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Oct |
Boavista |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Oct |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Porto** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Porto** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance** as a guest**.

Porto,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Porto was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Nacional |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Tondela |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Santa Clara |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Portimonense |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Oct |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Gil Vicente |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Guimaraes** and the red line for guest team, **Porto. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Guimaraes |
40% |
38% |
16% |
6% |

Porto |
21% |
29% |
28% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Guimaraes** to score **0.8 ** goals and **Porto** to score **1.77 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and the guest team **Porto ** to win by **0.97** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Guimaraes** to score **0.88 ** goals and **Porto** to score **1.51 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and the guest team **Porto ** to win by **0.63** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.56 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.72 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.56 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
2.11 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.72 |

NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.51 |
3.35 |
2.40 |

2-3 goals |
5.56 |
4.56 |
1.66 |

4+ goals |
6.06 |
3.72 |
1.77 |

Ov 1.5 |
5.70 |
4.27 |
1.69 |

Un 1.5 |
3.51 |
3.35 |
2.40 |

Ov 2.5 |
4.99 |
8.14 |
1.48 |

Un 2.5 |
4.73 |
2.74 |
2.36 |

Ov 3.5 |
6.06 |
3.72 |
1.77 |

Un 3.5 |
4.60 |
4.04 |
1.87 |

Goal-Goal |
5.91 |
2.82 |
2.10 |

No Goal |
4.17 |
6.26 |
1.66 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
4.52 |
6.35 |
1.61 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.75 |
6.26 |
1.87 |

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