2020 12 29 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Benfica vs Portimonense at 29 December 2020
Moreirense vs Santa Clara at 29 December 2020
Guimaraes vs Porto at 30 December 2020


Benfica vs Portimonense at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Benfica and Portimonense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Benfica

1.23

1.56

-17.2

Draw

6.25

4.52

6.1

Portimonense

11.56

7.14

5.4

Over 2.5

1.55

2.22

-19.5

Under 2.5

2.42

1.82

13.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Portimonense, Under 2.5 (6.1 %, 5.4 %, 13.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Benfica in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Benfica in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Benfica’s performance at home.
Benfica, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 80.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benfica was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Gil Vicente

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Pacos Ferreira

H

2

1

W

O

G

30 Nov

Maritimo

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Sp Braga

H

2

3

L

O

G

02 Nov

Boavista

A

0

3

L

O

N

26 Oct

Belenenses

H

2

0

W

U

N

18 Oct

Rio Ave

A

3

0

W

O

N

04 Oct

Farense

H

3

2

W

O

G


Portimonense in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portimonense in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance as a guest.
Portimonense, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Dec

Famalicao

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Guimaraes

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Nov

Nacional

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Porto

A

1

3

L

O

G

01 Nov

Santa Clara

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Oct

Tondela

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Maritimo

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Oct

Sp Lisbon

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Benfica and the red line for guest team, Portimonense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Benfica

16%

30%

27%

26%

Portimonense

54%

27%

16%

3%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Benfica to score 2.56 goals and Portimonense to score 0.48 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.04 goals in the game and the home team Benfica to win by 2.08 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Benfica to score 1.64 goals and Portimonense to score 0.68 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Benfica to win by 0.96 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.37

1

4.78

2-3

1.91

2

3.95

4+

5.49

3

3.70

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

8.06

Un 1.5

3.37

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

142.86

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.59

Ov 3.5

5.49

NoG

1.62

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.80

3.38

6.75

2-3 goals

1.45

6.38

6.46

4+ goals

1.60

3.57

10.71

Ov 1.5

1.49

5.30

7.19

Un 1.5

1.80

3.38

6.75

Ov 2.5

1.37

8.86

6.28

Un 2.5

1.77

3.24

7.86

Ov 3.5

1.60

3.57

10.71

Un 3.5

1.56

4.82

6.56

Goal-Goal

2.08

2.90

5.76

No Goal

1.36

7.00

8.21

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.63

5.96

4.54

NG+Un 2.5

1.51

7.00

6.69


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Moreirense vs Santa Clara at 29 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Moreirense and Santa Clara for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 29 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Moreirense

2.83

2.50

4.7

Draw

2.86

3.62

-7.3

Santa Clara

2.77

3.09

-3.7

Over 2.5

2.50

2.22

5.0

Under 2.5

1.54

1.82

-10.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Moreirense, Over 2.5 (4.7 %, 5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Moreirense in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Moreirense in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance at home.
Moreirense, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Moreirense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Tondela

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Gil Vicente

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Dec

Pacos Ferreira

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Sp Lisbon

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Rio Ave

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Oct

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

Belenenses

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Oct

Boavista

H

1

1

D

U

G


Santa Clara in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Santa Clara in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance as a guest.
Santa Clara, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Dec

Guimaraes

H

0

4

L

O

N

06 Dec

Nacional

A

3

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Porto

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Tondela

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

Portimonense

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Sp Lisbon

H

1

2

L

O

G

18 Oct

Pacos Ferreira

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Oct

Gil Vicente

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Moreirense and the red line for guest team, Santa Clara.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Moreirense

28%

35%

22%

16%

Santa Clara

32%

36%

19%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Moreirense to score 1.04 goals and Santa Clara to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Moreirense to score 1.26 goals and Santa Clara to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

3.31

1

4.69

2-3

2.09

2

4.03

4+

4.55

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.31

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.70

3.39

2.99

2-3 goals

2.40

3.76

3.14

4+ goals

2.47

3.67

3.10

Ov 1.5

2.42

3.73

3.13

Un 1.5

2.70

3.39

2.99

Ov 2.5

2.05

7.50

2.63

Un 2.5

3.04

2.55

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.47

3.67

3.10

Un 3.5

2.51

3.61

3.08

Goal-Goal

2.92

2.63

3.61

No Goal

2.19

5.72

2.71

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.17

6.07

2.68

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

5.72

2.76


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Guimaraes vs Porto at 30 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Guimaraes and Porto for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 30 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Guimaraes

5.00

4.83

0.7

Draw

3.82

3.97

-1.0

Porto

1.67

1.85

-5.8

Over 2.5

1.87

2.15

-7.0

Under 2.5

1.94

1.87

1.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Guimaraes, Under 2.5 (0.7 %, 1.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Guimaraes in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Guimaraes in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance at home.
Guimaraes, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Dec

Santa Clara

A

4

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Portimonense

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Nov

Tondela

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Sp Lisbon

H

0

4

L

O

N

01 Nov

Gil Vicente

A

2

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Sp Braga

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Oct

Boavista

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Oct

Pacos Ferreira

H

1

0

W

U

N


Porto in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Porto in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance as a guest.
Porto, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Porto was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Nacional

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Tondela

H

4

3

W

O

G

28 Nov

Santa Clara

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Portimonense

H

3

1

W

O

G

30 Oct

Pacos Ferreira

A

2

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

Gil Vicente

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Sp Lisbon

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Oct

Maritimo

H

2

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Guimaraes and the red line for guest team, Porto.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Guimaraes

40%

38%

16%

6%

Porto

21%

29%

28%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Guimaraes to score 0.8 goals and Porto to score 1.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 0.97 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Guimaraes to score 0.88 goals and Porto to score 1.51 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.56

1

5.08

2-3

1.98

2

3.94

4+

4.72

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.56

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

4.72

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.51

3.35

2.40

2-3 goals

5.56

4.56

1.66

4+ goals

6.06

3.72

1.77

Ov 1.5

5.70

4.27

1.69

Un 1.5

3.51

3.35

2.40

Ov 2.5

4.99

8.14

1.48

Un 2.5

4.73

2.74

2.36

Ov 3.5

6.06

3.72

1.77

Un 3.5

4.60

4.04

1.87

Goal-Goal

5.91

2.82

2.10

No Goal

4.17

6.26

1.66

G-G+Ov 2.5

4.52

6.35

1.61

NG+Un 2.5

3.75

6.26

1.87


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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