2020 12 29 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Pescara vs Cosenza at 31 December 2020
Spal vs Brescia at 31 December 2020
Pordenone vs Reggiana at 31 December 2020
Empoli vs Ascoli at 31 December 2020
Chievo vs Venezia at 31 December 2020
Monza vs Salernitana at 31 December 2020
Reggina vs Cremonese at 31 December 2020


Pescara vs Cosenza at 31 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Pescara and Cosenza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 31 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pescara

2.59

2.65

-0.9

Draw

3.01

3.44

-4.2

Cosenza

2.93

3.02

-1.0

Over 2.5

2.13

2.30

-3.5

Under 2.5

1.74

1.77

-1.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pescara in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pescara in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance at home.
Pescara, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Virtus Entella

A

0

3

L

O

N

22 Dec

Brescia

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Monza

H

3

2

W

O

G

15 Dec

Pisa

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Vicenza

H

2

3

L

O

G

04 Dec

Ascoli

A

2

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Pordenone

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Nov

Spal

A

0

2

L

U

N


Cosenza in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cosenza in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cosenza’s performance as a guest.
Cosenza, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cosenza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Pisa

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Venezia

H

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Cremonese

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Ascoli

A

3

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Reggiana

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Vicenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Nov

Salernitana

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Nov

Frosinone

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pescara and the red line for guest team, Cosenza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pescara

27%

36%

26%

10%

Cosenza

27%

43%

19%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pescara to score 1.22 goals and Cosenza to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pescara to score 1.21 goals and Cosenza to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.50

1

4.69

2-3

1.92

2

3.57

4+

5.15

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.41

Un 1.5

3.50

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.30

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

5.15

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.89

3.92

2.51

2-3 goals

2.43

3.34

3.45

4+ goals

2.98

3.13

2.90

Ov 1.5

2.56

3.28

3.28

Un 1.5

2.89

3.92

2.51

Ov 2.5

2.10

7.02

2.62

Un 2.5

3.31

2.47

3.41

Ov 3.5

2.98

3.13

2.90

Un 3.5

2.58

3.52

3.05

Goal-Goal

3.00

2.45

3.87

No Goal

2.34

6.40

2.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.12

6.10

2.74

NG+Un 2.5

2.40

6.40

2.47


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Spal vs Brescia at 31 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Spal and Brescia for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 31 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spal

2.05

1.95

2.5

Draw

3.24

3.89

-5.2

Brescia

3.79

4.33

-3.3

Over 2.5

2.05

2.18

-2.9

Under 2.5

1.79

1.85

-1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spal (2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spal in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Spal in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Spal’s performance at home.
Spal, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 17 points, 81.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Ascoli

A

0

2

L

U

N

22 Dec

Lecce

H

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Venezia

A

0

0

D

U

N

15 Dec

Chievo

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Cittadella

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Pisa

H

4

0

W

O

N

30 Nov

Virtus Entella

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Pescara

H

2

0

W

U

N


Brescia in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Brescia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Brescia’s performance as a guest.
Brescia, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brescia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Empoli

H

1

3

L

O

G

22 Dec

Pescara

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Reggiana

H

3

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Pordenone

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Salernitana

H

3

1

W

O

G

08 Dec

Cremonese

A

2

2

D

O

G

05 Dec

Reggina

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Nov

Frosinone

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spal and the red line for guest team, Brescia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spal

18%

39%

21%

21%

Brescia

42%

31%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spal to score 1.46 goals and Brescia to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Spal to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spal to score 1.46 goals and Brescia to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Spal to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.37

1

4.52

2-3

2.05

2

4.08

4+

4.63

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.37

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

1.91

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.82

3.91

5.12

2-3 goals

1.99

3.97

4.07

4+ goals

2.06

3.79

4.00

Ov 1.5

2.01

3.91

4.05

Un 1.5

1.82

3.91

5.12

Ov 2.5

1.76

8.05

3.26

Un 2.5

2.15

2.72

5.96

Ov 3.5

2.06

3.79

4.00

Un 3.5

1.92

3.94

4.41

Goal-Goal

2.77

2.65

3.82

No Goal

1.54

6.89

4.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.06

6.21

2.83

NG+Un 2.5

1.66

6.89

4.60


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Pordenone vs Reggiana at 31 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Pordenone and Reggiana for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 31 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pordenone

1.94

2.35

-9.0

Draw

3.40

3.76

-2.8

Reggiana

4.21

3.25

7.0

Over 2.5

1.93

2.07

-3.5

Under 2.5

1.92

1.93

-0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reggiana (7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pordenone in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pordenone in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance at home.
Pordenone, at home, had no wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Frosinone

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Cremonese

H

1

2

L

O

G

18 Dec

Virtus Entella

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Brescia

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Pisa

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Dec

Empoli

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Pescara

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Monza

H

1

1

D

U

G


Reggiana in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggiana in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggiana’s performance as a guest.
Reggiana, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggiana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Reggina

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Dec

Empoli

A

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Brescia

A

1

3

L

O

G

15 Dec

Frosinone

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Cosenza

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Monza

H

3

0

W

O

N

29 Nov

Cremonese

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Lecce

A

1

7

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pordenone and the red line for guest team, Reggiana.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pordenone

26%

28%

34%

12%

Reggiana

31%

37%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pordenone to score 1.6 goals and Reggiana to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Pordenone to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pordenone to score 1.34 goals and Reggiana to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.88

1

5.59

2-3

1.95

2

3.85

4+

4.35

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.00

3.27

2.77

2-3 goals

1.89

5.07

3.66

4+ goals

3.29

2.71

3.07

Ov 1.5

2.18

3.99

3.45

Un 1.5

3.00

3.27

2.77

Ov 2.5

2.06

5.67

2.96

Un 2.5

2.68

2.88

3.57

Ov 3.5

3.29

2.71

3.07

Un 3.5

2.16

4.28

3.30

Goal-Goal

2.62

2.76

3.89

No Goal

2.10

6.15

2.76

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.11

4.86

3.13

NG+Un 2.5

2.16

6.15

2.88


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Empoli vs Ascoli at 31 Dec 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Empoli and Ascoli for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 31 Dec 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Empoli

1.47

1.95

-16.7

Draw

4.24

3.77

2.9

Ascoli

6.73

4.52

7.3

Over 2.5

1.79

2.31

-12.6

Under 2.5

2.02

1.76

7.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Ascoli, Under 2.5 (2.9 %, 7.3 %, 7.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Empoli in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Empoli in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Empoli’s performance at home.
Empoli, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 15 points, 71.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Empoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Brescia

A

3

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Reggiana

H

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Chievo

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Cremonese

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Virtus Entella

A

5

2

W

O

G

07 Dec

Pordenone

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Vicenza

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Cittadella

A

2

2

D

O

G


Ascoli in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ascoli in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance as a guest.
Ascoli, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 8.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Dec

Spal

H

2

0

W

U

N

22 Dec

Monza

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Vicenza

A

1

2

L

O

G

15 Dec

Cosenza

H

0

3

L

O

N

12 Dec

Cremonese

A

3

3

D

O

G

08 Dec

Pisa

A

1

2

L

O

G

04 Dec

Pescara

H

0

2

L

U

N

28 Nov

Venezia

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Empoli and the red line for guest team, Ascoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Empoli

18%

46%

14%

23%

Ascoli

43%

33%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Empoli to score 2 goals and Ascoli to score 0.67 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the home team Empoli to win by 1.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Empoli to score 1.42 goals and Ascoli to score 0.89 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Empoli to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.05

1

3.95

2-3

2.11

2

4.17

4+

5.05

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

7.58

Un 1.5

3.05

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.31

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

5.05

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals