2020 12 29 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Estudiantes vs Tenerife at 29 December 2020
Gipuzkoa vs Manresa at 29 December 2020
San Pablo Burgos vs Bilbao at 29 December 2020
Unicaja Malaga vs Real Betis at 29 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Estudiantes vs Tenerife at 29 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Estudiantes and Tenerife for Liga ACB, which will take place on 29 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Estudiantes

2.95

2.46

Tenerife

1.4

1.68

Estudiantes HC

+5.5

3.50

Tenerife HC

-5.5

-3.50

Point Line

164.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Estudiantes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

73

81

5

10

L 2

75

82

Dec 13

H

Valencia Basket

L

81

86

5

9

L 1

82

83

Dec 6

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

78

77

5

8

W 1

73

79

Nov 22

H

Unicaja

L

90

92

4

8

L 4

92

88

Nov 15

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

71

91

4

7

L 3

73

84

Nov 8

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

78

92

4

6

L 2

84

88

Nov 1

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

70

97

4

5

L 1

69

93

Oct 28

H

Acunsa GBC

W

80

61

4

4

W 1

75

69

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

93

81

13

2

W 1

96

82

Dec 20

A

Baskonia

L

72

79

12

2

L 1

75

78

Dec 12

H

San Pablo Burgos

W

84

79

12

1

W 6

86

73

Dec 5

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

107

62

11

1

W 5

103

63

Nov 22

A

Valencia Basket

W

95

89

10

1

W 4

96

86

Nov 15

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

99

80

9

1

W 3

100

86

Nov 12

A

Manresa

W

88

80

8

1

W 2

86

79

Nov 8

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

77

73

7

1

W 1

78

81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Estudiantes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tenerife.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tenerife and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Estudiantes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Estudiantes (in the first graph) and by Tenerife in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Estudiantes will expected to score 80 points and the Tenerife 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Estudiantes

Tenerife

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

13.80

16.70

DRB

20.90

19.60

AST-TO

1.05

1.27

TRB

29.90

29.00

FTM

12.40

13.10

BL

3.30

2.30

FTA

16.60

17.80

PF-Fewer

24.00

21.50

ST

6.60

7.60

TO-Fewer

13.10

13.10

Ftper

0.75

0.74

ORBper

0.44

0.48

ORB

9.10

9.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Gipuzkoa vs Manresa at 29 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Gipuzkoa and Manresa for Liga ACB, which will take place on 29 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Gipuzkoa

4.3

3.92

Manresa

1.23

1.34

Gipuzkoa HC

+8.5

7.00

Manresa HC

-8.5

-7.00

Point Line

160.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gipuzkoa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

A

Valencia Basket

L

75

101

2

13

L 2

76

97

Dec 19

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

65

79

2

12

L 1

66

85

Dec 13

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

86

82

2

11

W 1

89

84

Dec 9

A

UCAM Murcia

L

73

90

1

11

L 9

72

89

Dec 6

A

Baskonia

L

71

83

1

10

L 8

74

82

Nov 22

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

68

99

1

9

L 7

67

95

Nov 15

A

Unicaja

L

69

104

1

8

L 6

70

99

Oct 31

A

Coosur Real Betis

L

62

74

1

7

L 5

63

82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

64

71

7

8

L 2

64

77

Dec 19

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

80

91

7

7

L 1

82

84

Dec 12

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

85

80

7

6

W 1

84

77

Nov 22

A

Real Madrid

L

78

100

6

6

L 2

84

94

Nov 12

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

80

88

6

5

L 1

83

81

Nov 8

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

103

102

6

4

W 2

92

106

Oct 31

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

94

78

5

4

W 1

88

80

Oct 28

A

Baskonia

L

68

87

4

4

L 1

71

86

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gipuzkoa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gipuzkoa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gipuzkoa (in the first graph) and by Manresa in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gipuzkoa will expected to score 78 points and the Manresa 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Gipuzkoa

Manresa

FG%

0.46

0.57

ASS

13.90

15.10

DRB

20.10

21.90

AST-TO

0.99

1.06

TRB

30.00

28.50

FTM

9.90

16.90

BL

2.10

3.90

FTA

14.30

22.20

PF-Fewer

20.60

20.40

ST

9.10

9.50

TO-Fewer

14.10

14.30

Ftper

0.69

0.76

ORBper

0.49

0.30

ORB

9.90

6.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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San Pablo Burgos vs Bilbao at 29 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between San Pablo Burgos and Bilbao for Liga ACB, which will take place on 29 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

San Pablo Burgos

1.26

1.64

Bilbao

3.85

2.57

San Pablo Burgos HC

-7.5

-3.50

Bilbao HC

+7.5

3.50

Point Line

164.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

95

78

10

5

W 2

93

75

Dec 19

H

Manresa

W

91

80

9

5

W 1

89

79

Dec 12

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

79

84

8

5

L 2

82

78

Dec 6

H

Real Madrid

L

60

74

8

4

L 1

65

69

Nov 21

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

78

63

8

3

W 4

75

64

Nov 15

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

91

71

7

3

W 3

88

72

Nov 12

H

UCAM Murcia

W

89

84

6

3

W 2

88

83

Nov 8

A

Valencia Basket

W

99

81

5

3

W 1

100

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bilbao are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

H

Unicaja

L

75

91

3

12

L 1

76

87

Dec 20

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

74

70

3

11

W 1

73

69

Dec 13

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

76

105

2

11

L 3

68

109

Dec 6

H

Movistar Estudiantes

L

77

78

2

10

L 2

75

79

Dec 3

H

MoraBanc Andorra

L

76

85

2

9

L 1

78

86

Nov 22

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

96

89

2

8

W 1

97

98

Nov 15

H

UCAM Murcia

L

63

73

1

8

L 5

62

72

Nov 7

A

Baskonia

L

68

82

1

7

L 4

71

81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by San Pablo Burgos and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bilbao.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bilbao and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by San Pablo Burgos.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by San Pablo Burgos (in the first graph) and by Bilbao in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, San Pablo Burgos will expected to score 86 points and the Bilbao 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

San Pablo Burgos

Bilbao

FG%

0.50

0.51

ASS

14.80

15.30

DRB

21.90

21.50

AST-TO

0.92

1.05

TRB

32.30

30.50

FTM

15.60

14.20

BL

2.10

2.30

FTA

19.70

18.00

PF-Fewer

19.40

21.30

ST

7.70

5.90

TO-Fewer

16.00

14.60

Ftper

0.79

0.79

ORBper

0.47

0.42

ORB

10.30

9.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Unicaja Malaga vs Real Betis at 29 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Unicaja Malaga and Real Betis for Liga ACB, which will take place on 29 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Unicaja Malaga

1.2

1.85

Real Betis

4.6

2.18

Unicaja Malaga HC

-9.5

-2.00

Real Betis HC

+9.5

2.00

Point Line

161.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

91

75

9

6

W 1

85

77

Dec 22

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

84

90

8

6

L 2

83

89

Dec 13

A

Real Madrid

L

84

91

8

5

L 1

91

85

Dec 6

H

UCAM Murcia

W

102

81

8

4

W 5

101

80

Nov 22

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

92

90

7

4

W 4

89

91

Nov 15

H

Acunsa GBC

W

104

69

6

4

W 3

97

78

Nov 1

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

82

76

5

4

W 2

79

77

Oct 30

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

92

63

4

4

W 1

83

66

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Betis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

86

79

3

12

W 1

85

78

Dec 22

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

54

78

2

12

L 6

54

84

Dec 12

H

Baskonia

L

73

77

2

11

L 5

76

76

Dec 6

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

55

72

2

10

L 4

57

73

Nov 22

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

89

96

2

9

L 3

84

99

Nov 14

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

53

82

2

8

L 2

57

79

Nov 8

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

73

77

2

7

L 1

76

71

Oct 31

H

Acunsa GBC

W

74

62

2

6

W 1

69

70

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unicaja Malaga and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Betis.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Betis and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unicaja Malaga.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Unicaja Malaga (in the first graph) and by Real Betis in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Unicaja Malaga will expected to score 82 points and the Real Betis 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Unicaja Malaga

Real Betis

FG%

0.55

0.47

ASS

17.20

13.70

DRB

22.30

19.60

AST-TO

1.10

1.01

TRB

32.30

29.70

FTM

12.50

14.10

BL

1.90

2.90

FTA

16.30

19.70

PF-Fewer

17.90

20.30

ST

6.30

8.90

TO-Fewer

15.60

13.60

Ftper

0.77

0.72

ORBper

0.44

0.52

ORB

9.90

10.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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