2020 12 29 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Anadolu Efes vs Real Madrid at 29 December 2020
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Zenit at 29 December 2020
Baskonia vs Valencia at 29 December 2020
Khimki vs Olympiacos at 29 December 2020
Alba Berlin vs Zalgiris at 29 December 2020
Fenerbahce vs Villeurbanne at 30 December 2020
Bayern Munich vs Barcelona at 30 December 2020
Olimpia Milano vs CSKA Moscow at 30 December 2020
Crvena Zvezda vs Panathinaikos at 30 December 2020

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Anadolu Efes vs Real Madrid at 29 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Anadolu Efes and Real Madrid for EuroLeague, which will take place on 29 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Anadolu Efes

1.72

7.43

Real Madrid

2.17

1.16

Anadolu Efes HC

-2.5

10.00

Real Madrid HC

+2.5

-10.00

Point Line

158.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Anadolu Efes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 22

H

FC Barcelona

W

86

79

8

8

W 1

94

77

Dec 17

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

69

72

7

8

L 3

68

69

Dec 15

A

CSKA Moscow

L

65

100

7

7

L 2

66

93

Dec 10

A

Valencia Basket

L

74

76

7

6

L 1

72

72

Dec 8

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

72

68

7

5

W 1

72

71

Dec 4

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

59

77

6

5

L 1

62

78

Nov 26

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

75

64

6

4

W 2

76

67

Nov 19

A

BC Khimki

W

105

77

5

4

W 1

92

76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 22

H

Alba Berlin

W

91

62

11

5

W 5

86

62

Dec 18

A

Olympiacos

W

86

82

10

5

W 4

85

83

Dec 15

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

97

93

9

5

W 3

91

91

Dec 10

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

79

72

8

5

W 2

85

76

Dec 4

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

91

84

7

5

W 1

91

87

Nov 26

A

CSKA Moscow

L

73

74

6

5

L 1

74

69

Nov 20

H

Fenerbahce

W

94

74

6

4

W 5

92

80

Nov 18

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

79

63

5

4

W 4

80

64

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Anadolu Efes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Madrid.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Madrid and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Anadolu Efes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Anadolu Efes (in the first graph) and by Real Madrid in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Anadolu Efes will expected to score 78 points and the Real Madrid 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Anadolu Efes

Real Madrid

FG%

0.55

0.56

ASS

17.30

19.10

DRB

19.40

21.80

AST-TO

1.56

1.66

TRB

25.90

30.10

FTM

11.90

13.20

BL

3.40

3.60

FTA

15.70

16.20

PF-Fewer

17.00

19.70

ST

6.70

6.90

TO-Fewer

11.10

11.50

Ftper

0.76

0.81

ORBper

0.34

0.38

ORB

6.50

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Zenit at 29 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Zenit for EuroLeague, which will take place on 29 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.51

1.88

Zenit

2.65

2.13

Maccabi Tel Aviv HC

-4.5

-2.00

Zenit HC

+4.5

2.00

Point Line

150.5

149.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Tel Aviv are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 22

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

89

81

7

9

W 2

83

79

Dec 18

A

FC Barcelona

W

68

67

6

9

W 1

74

65

Dec 16

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

81

84

5

9

L 1

81

87

Dec 10

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

67

63

5

8

W 2

70

64

Dec 3

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

81

76

4

8

W 1

82

79

Nov 26

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

85

86

3

8

L 3

84

83

Nov 20

A

Valencia Basket

L

80

82

3

7

L 2

78

78

Nov 18

A

Real Madrid

L

63

79

3

6

L 1

62

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 22

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

98

69

9

5

W 1

100

72

Dec 18

A

CSKA Moscow

L

65

83

8

5

L 1

66

77

Dec 16

H

Bayern Munich

W

79

75

8

4

W 1

82

75

Dec 10

A

Real Madrid

L

72

79

7

4

L 1

71

75

Dec 8

A

Valencia Basket

W

85

72

7

3

W 1

82

69

Dec 3

H

Fenerbahce

L

65

73

6

3

L 1

64

79

Nov 26

A

Zalgiris

W

83

75

6

2

W 3

84

73

Nov 23

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

77

70

5

2

W 2

81

71

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv (in the first graph) and by Zenit in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Maccabi Tel Aviv will expected to score 75 points and the Zenit 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 152.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Zenit

FG%

0.52

0.53

ASS

15.90

15.10

DRB

23.30

19.20

AST-TO

1.19

1.35

TRB

32.40

26.80

FTM

11.90

12.20

BL

2.60

2.50

FTA

15.70

15.70

PF-Fewer

19.30

20.30

ST

7.30

6.30

TO-Fewer

13.40

11.20

Ftper

0.76

0.78

ORBper

0.39

0.39

ORB

9.10

7.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Baskonia vs Valencia at 29 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Baskonia and Valencia for EuroLeague, which will take place on 29 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Baskonia

1.68

1.62

Valencia

2.25

2.60

Baskonia HC

-2.5

-4.00

Valencia HC

+2.5

4.00

Point Line

158.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 23

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

84

79

7

8

W 1

83

76

Dec 18

A

Bayern Munich

L

66

77

6

8

L 3

68

77

Dec 15

A

Zalgiris

L

73

92

6

7

L 2

74

90

Dec 10

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

63

67

6

6

L 1

64

68

Dec 4

A

Anadolu Efes

W

77

59

6

5

W 2

78

60

Nov 26

A

Olympiacos

W

90

76

5

5

W 1

89

76

Nov 23

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

70

77

4

5

L 1

75

82

Nov 19

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

93

72

4

4

W 2

87

70

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 23

H

BC Khimki

W

88

82

10

6

W 1

77

81

Dec 18

A

Crvena zvezda mts

L

73

76

9

6

L 1

74

79

Dec 16

A

Olympiacos

W

96

85

9

5

W 2

95

86

Dec 10

H

Anadolu Efes

W

76

74

8

5

W 1

77

76

Dec 8

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

72

85

7

5

L 2

77

90

Dec 3

H

Alba Berlin

L

92

100

7

4

L 1

87

101

Nov 27

A

Fenerbahce

W

90

86

7

3

W 3

88

93

Nov 20

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

82

80

6

3

W 2

83

81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Baskonia (in the first graph) and by Valencia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Baskonia will expected to score 80 points and the Valencia 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Baskonia

Valencia

FG%

0.53

0.58

ASS

18.90

20.60

DRB

21.60

20.00

AST-TO

1.30

1.76

TRB

32.30

27.70

FTM

13.90

12.90

BL

2.80

1.70

FTA

18.70

15.80

PF-Fewer

18.60

19.00

ST

7.90

6.10

TO-Fewer

14.50

11.70

Ftper

0.74

0.82

ORBper

0.50

0.38

ORB

10.70

7.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Khimki vs Olympiacos at 29 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Khimki and Olympiacos for EuroLeague, which will take place on 29 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Khimki

1.75

2.28

Olympiacos

2.12

1.78

Khimki HC

-2.5

2.50

Olympiacos HC

+2.5

-2.50

Point Line

166.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 23

A

Valencia Basket

L

82

88

2

14

L 8

80

84

Dec 18

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

84

90

2

13

L 7

84

94

Dec 16

A

FC Barcelona

L

74

87

2

12

L 6

81

85

Dec 11

H

CSKA Moscow

L

87

96

2

11

L 5

89

89

Dec 8

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

93

102

2

10

L 4

92

98

Dec 4

A

Bayern Munich

L

77

80

2

9

L 3

80

80

Nov 26

A

Alba Berlin

L

80

100

2

8

L 2

76

101

Nov 19

H

Anadolu Efes

L

77

105

2

7

L 1

78

108

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olympiacos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 23

A

Fenerbahce

L

77

84

7

8

L 3

76

91

Dec 18

H

Real Madrid

L

82

86

7

7

L 2

81

82

Dec 16

H

Valencia Basket

L

85

96

7

6

L 1

82

92

Dec 10

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

81

79

7

5

W 2

82

82

Dec 8

A

FC Barcelona

W

96

88

6

5

W 1

104

86

Dec 3

A

CSKA Moscow

L

61

80

5

5

L 2

62

74

Nov 26

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

76

90

5

4

L 1

80

91

Nov 12

H

Alba Berlin

W

75

71

5

3

W 2

71

72

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olympiacos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olympiacos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Khimki (in the first graph) and by Olympiacos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Khimki will expected to score 80 points and the Olympiacos 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Khimki

Olympiacos

FG%

0.53

0.54

ASS

19.20

17.00

DRB

22.70

20.30

AST-TO

1.32

1.31

TRB

30.60

27.80

FTM

13.30

14.40

BL

3.90

2.80

FTA

17.60

18.50

PF-Fewer

22.10

21.50

ST

5.80

6.60

TO-Fewer

14.50

13.00

Ftper

0.75

0.78

ORBper

0.35

0.37

ORB

7.90

7.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Alba Berlin vs Zalgiris at 29 December 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Alba Berlin and Zalgiris for EuroLeague, which will take place on 29 December 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Alba Berlin

2.45

2.77

Zalgiris

1.59

1.56

Alba Berlin HC

+3.5

4.50

Zalgiris HC

-3.5

-4.50

Point Line

158.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Alba Berlin are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 22

A

Real Madrid

L

62

91

6

9

L 2

61

86

Dec 17

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

69

92

6

8

L 1

64

90

Dec 15

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

90

84

6

7

W 3

91

88

Dec 10

H

Fenerbahce

W

89

63

5

7

W 2

87