2021 01 01 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ein Frankfurt vs Leverkusen at 02 NA 021
FC Koln vs Augsburg at 02 NA 021
Hertha vs Schalke 04 at 02 NA 021
Hoffenheim vs Freiburg at 02 NA 021
Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig at 02 NA 021
Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin at 02 NA 021
Dortmund vs Wolfsburg at 03 NA 021
Bayern Munich vs Mainz at 03 NA 021


Ein Frankfurt vs Leverkusen at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ein Frankfurt and Leverkusen for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ein Frankfurt

3.33

3.50

-1.5

Draw

3.81

4.00

-1.2

Leverkusen

2.10

2.16

-1.3

Over 2.5

1.51

1.82

-11.3

Under 2.5

2.56

2.22

6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ein Frankfurt in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ein Frankfurt in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance at home.
Ein Frankfurt, at home, had one win, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Augsburg

A

2

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

M’gladbach

H

3

3

D

O

G

11 Dec

Wolfsburg

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Dortmund

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Union Berlin

A

3

3

D

O

G

21 Nov

RB Leipzig

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Stuttgart

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Werder Bremen

H

1

1

D

U

G


Leverkusen in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leverkusen in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance as a guest.
Leverkusen, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 17 points, 81.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Bayern Munich

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Dec

FC Koln

A

4

0

W

O

N

13 Dec

Hoffenheim

H

4

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Schalke 04

A

3

0

W

O

N

29 Nov

Hertha

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Bielefeld

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

M’gladbach

H

4

3

W

O

G

01 Nov

Freiburg

A

4

2

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ein Frankfurt and the red line for guest team, Leverkusen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ein Frankfurt

32%

37%

14%

17%

Leverkusen

24%

25%

24%

26%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ein Frankfurt to score 1.3 goals and Leverkusen to score 1.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.13 goals in the game and the guest team Leverkusen to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ein Frankfurt to score 1.17 goals and Leverkusen to score 1.52 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the guest team Leverkusen to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

4.03

1

5.85

2-3

2.21

2

4.93

4+

3.34

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.68

Un 1.5

4.03

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.82

6+

22.22

Un 2.5

2.22

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.34

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.73

3.22

3.10

2-3 goals

4.08

4.82

1.83

4+ goals

3.56

3.78

2.20

Ov 1.5

3.86

4.35

1.96

Un 1.5

2.73

3.22

3.10

Ov 2.5

3.41

6.95

1.78

Un 2.5

3.61

2.64

2.91

Ov 3.5

3.56

3.78

2.20

Un 3.5

3.47

4.10

2.14

Goal-Goal

4.34

2.99

2.30

No Goal

2.89

6.27

2.02

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.55

5.35

1.88

NG+Un 2.5

2.86

6.27

2.30


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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FC Koln vs Augsburg at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between FC Koln and Augsburg for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

FC Koln

2.36

2.99

-8.9

Draw

3.32

3.86

-4.2

Augsburg

3.21

2.46

9.5

Over 2.5

2.05

1.85

5.3

Under 2.5

1.82

2.17

-8.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Augsburg, Over 2.5 (9.5 %, 5.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

FC Koln in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Koln in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance at home.
FC Koln, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 9.5% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

RB Leipzig

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Dec

Leverkusen

H

0

4

L

O

N

12 Dec

Mainz

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Wolfsburg

H

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Dortmund

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Union Berlin

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Nov

Werder Bremen

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Bayern Munich

H

1

2

L

O

G


Augsburg in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Augsburg in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Augsburg’s performance as a guest.
Augsburg, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Augsburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Ein Frankfurt

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Dec

Bielefeld

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Schalke 04

H

2

2

D

O

G

07 Dec

Hoffenheim

A

1

3

L

O

G

28 Nov

Freiburg

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

M’gladbach

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Hertha

H

0

3

L

O

N

31 Oct

Mainz

H

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, FC Koln and the red line for guest team, Augsburg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

FC Koln

28%

35%

18%

19%

Augsburg

25%

30%

23%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) FC Koln to score 1.34 goals and Augsburg to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) FC Koln to score 1.27 goals and Augsburg to score 1.41 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

4.08

1

5.75

2-3

2.18

2

4.65

4+

3.37

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.75

Un 1.5

4.08

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

1.85

6+

24.39

Un 2.5

2.17

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.37

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.75

3.45

2.88

2-3 goals

3.17

4.33

2.21

4+ goals

2.94

3.62

2.61

Ov 1.5

3.07

4.02

2.35

Un 1.5

2.75

3.45

2.88

Ov 2.5

2.68

6.60

2.11

Un 2.5

3.46

2.60

3.07

Ov 3.5

2.94

3.62

2.61

Un 3.5

3.01

3.98

2.40

Goal-Goal

3.49

2.86

2.74

No Goal

2.56

6.52

2.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.81

5.27

2.20

NG+Un 2.5

2.66

6.52

2.36


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Hertha vs Schalke 04 at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hertha and Schalke 04 for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hertha

1.72

1.67

1.7

Draw

3.95

4.42

-2.7

Schalke 04

4.98

5.68

-2.5

Over 2.5

1.83

1.68

4.9

Under 2.5

2.03

2.46

-8.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Hertha, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hertha in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hertha in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance at home.
Hertha, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Freiburg

A

1

4

L

O

G

15 Dec

Mainz

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

M’gladbach

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Dec

Union Berlin

H

3

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Leverkusen

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Dortmund

H

2

5

L

O

G

07 Nov

Augsburg

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Wolfsburg

H

1

1

D

U

G


Schalke 04 in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Schalke 04 in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance as a guest.
Schalke 04, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

Bielefeld

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Dec

Freiburg

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Augsburg

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Dec

Leverkusen

H

0

3

L

O

N

28 Nov

M’gladbach

A

1

4

L

O

G

21 Nov

Wolfsburg

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Mainz

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Oct

Stuttgart

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hertha and the red line for guest team, Schalke 04.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hertha

13%

27%

23%

36%

Schalke 04

34%

41%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.81 goals and Schalke 04 to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the home team Hertha to win by 0.97 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.82 goals and Schalke 04 to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.81 goals in the game and the home team Hertha to win by 0.83 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

22.22

0-1

5.21

1

6.80

2-3

2.04

2

4.67

4+

3.13

3

3.64

Ov 1.5

1.24

4

4.74

Un 1.5

5.21

5

12.50

Ov 2.5

1.68

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

2.46

Gg

1.74

Ov 3.5

3.13

NoG

2.35

Un 3.5

1.47

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.09

4.27

3.49

2-3 goals

1.66

4.33

6.04

4+ goals

1.51

4.69

7.98

Ov 1.5

1.60

4.46

6.68

Un 1.5

2.09

4.27

3.49

Ov 2.5

1.39

8.74

6.06

Un 2.5

2.39

2.57

5.21

Ov 3.5

1.51

4.69

7.98

Un 3.5

1.76

4.31

5.01

Goal-Goal

1.87

3.18

6.61

No Goal

1.46

9.44

4.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.50

6.79

5.31

NG+Un 2.5

1.72

9.44

3.76


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Hoffenheim vs Freiburg at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hoffenheim and Freiburg for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hoffenheim

2.06

2.25

-4.1

Draw

3.74

3.98

-1.6

Freiburg

3.49

3.28

1.8

Over 2.5

1.54

1.84

-10.6

Under 2.5

2.54

2.19

6.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Freiburg, Under 2.5 (1.8 %, 6.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hoffenheim in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hoffenheim in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance at home.
Hoffenheim, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Dec

M’gladbach

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

RB Leipzig

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Dec

Leverkusen

A

1

4

L

O

G

07 Dec

Augsburg

H

3

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Mainz

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Stuttgart

H

3

3

D

O

G

08 Nov

Wolfsburg

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Nov

Union Berlin

H

1

3

L

O

G


Freiburg in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Freiburg in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance as a guest.
Freiburg, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Dec

Hertha

H

4

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Schalke 04

A

2

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Bielefeld

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

M’gladbach

H

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Augsburg

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Nov

Mainz

H

1

3

L

O

G

07 Nov

RB Leipzig

A

0

3

L

O

N

01 Nov

Leverkusen

H

2

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hoffenheim and the red line for guest team, Freiburg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hoffenheim

23%

33%

16%

27%

Freiburg

35%

27%

22%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.84 goals and Freiburg to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.09 goals in the game and the home team Hoffenheim to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.47 goals and Freiburg to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.85

1

5.59

2-3

2.25

2

5.08

4+

3.41

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.85

5

11.76

Ov 2.5

1.85

6+

22.22

Un 2.5

2.19

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

3.41

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-