# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Ein Frankfurt vs Leverkusen at 02 NA 021**** FC Koln vs Augsburg at 02 NA 021**** Hertha vs Schalke 04 at 02 NA 021**** Hoffenheim vs Freiburg at 02 NA 021**** Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig at 02 NA 021**** Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin at 02 NA 021**** Dortmund vs Wolfsburg at 03 NA 021**** Bayern Munich vs Mainz at 03 NA 021**

###
Ein Frankfurt vs Leverkusen at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ein Frankfurt** and **Leverkusen** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ein Frankfurt |
3.33 |
3.50 |
-1.5 |

Draw |
3.81 |
4.00 |
-1.2 |

Leverkusen |
2.10 |
2.16 |
-1.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.51 |
1.82 |
-11.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.56 |
2.22 |
6.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ein Frankfurt** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ein Frankfurt** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance** at home**.

Ein Frankfurt,** at home**, had one win, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Augsburg |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
M’gladbach |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

11 Dec |
Wolfsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Dortmund |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Union Berlin |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
RB Leipzig |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Stuttgart |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Leverkusen** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leverkusen** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance** as a guest**.

Leverkusen,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 17 points, 81.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Bayern Munich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
FC Koln |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Dec |
Hoffenheim |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Schalke 04 |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

29 Nov |
Hertha |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Bielefeld |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
M’gladbach |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Freiburg |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ein Frankfurt** and the red line for guest team, **Leverkusen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ein Frankfurt |
32% |
37% |
14% |
17% |

Leverkusen |
24% |
25% |
24% |
26% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ein Frankfurt** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Leverkusen** to score **1.83 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.13** goals in the game and the guest team **Leverkusen ** to win by **0.53** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ein Frankfurt** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Leverkusen** to score **1.52 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.69** goals in the game and the guest team **Leverkusen ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
4.03 |

1 |
5.85 |
2-3 |
2.21 |

2 |
4.93 |
4+ |
3.34 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.68 |
Un 1.5 |
4.03 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |

6+ |
22.22 |
Un 2.5 |
2.22 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.34 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.73 |
3.22 |
3.10 |

2-3 goals |
4.08 |
4.82 |
1.83 |

4+ goals |
3.56 |
3.78 |
2.20 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.86 |
4.35 |
1.96 |

Un 1.5 |
2.73 |
3.22 |
3.10 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.41 |
6.95 |
1.78 |

Un 2.5 |
3.61 |
2.64 |
2.91 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.56 |
3.78 |
2.20 |

Un 3.5 |
3.47 |
4.10 |
2.14 |

Goal-Goal |
4.34 |
2.99 |
2.30 |

No Goal |
2.89 |
6.27 |
2.02 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.55 |
5.35 |
1.88 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.86 |
6.27 |
2.30 |

####
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###
FC Koln vs Augsburg at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **FC Koln** and **Augsburg** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

FC Koln |
2.36 |
2.99 |
-8.9 |

Draw |
3.32 |
3.86 |
-4.2 |

Augsburg |
3.21 |
2.46 |
9.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.05 |
1.85 |
5.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
2.17 |
-8.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Augsburg, Over 2.5 (9.5 %, 5.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**FC Koln** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Koln** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance** at home**.

FC Koln,** at home**, had no wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 9.5% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 6 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Leverkusen |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Wolfsburg |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Dortmund |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Union Berlin |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Nov |
Werder Bremen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Bayern Munich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Augsburg** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Augsburg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Augsburg** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Augsburg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Augsburg’s performance** as a guest**.

Augsburg,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Augsburg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Augsburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Bielefeld |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Schalke 04 |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

07 Dec |
Hoffenheim |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Freiburg |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Hertha |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Mainz |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **FC Koln** and the red line for guest team, **Augsburg. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

FC Koln |
28% |
35% |
18% |
19% |

Augsburg |
25% |
30% |
23% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **FC Koln** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Augsburg** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **FC Koln** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Augsburg** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
4.08 |

1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.18 |

2 |
4.65 |
4+ |
3.37 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.75 |
Un 1.5 |
4.08 |

5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |

6+ |
24.39 |
Un 2.5 |
2.17 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.37 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.75 |
3.45 |
2.88 |

2-3 goals |
3.17 |
4.33 |
2.21 |

4+ goals |
2.94 |
3.62 |
2.61 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.07 |
4.02 |
2.35 |

Un 1.5 |
2.75 |
3.45 |
2.88 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.68 |
6.60 |
2.11 |

Un 2.5 |
3.46 |
2.60 |
3.07 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.94 |
3.62 |
2.61 |

Un 3.5 |
3.01 |
3.98 |
2.40 |

Goal-Goal |
3.49 |
2.86 |
2.74 |

No Goal |
2.56 |
6.52 |
2.19 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.81 |
5.27 |
2.20 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.66 |
6.52 |
2.36 |

####
Go to Top

###
Hertha vs Schalke 04 at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Hertha** and **Schalke 04** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Hertha |
1.72 |
1.67 |
1.7 |

Draw |
3.95 |
4.42 |
-2.7 |

Schalke 04 |
4.98 |
5.68 |
-2.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.83 |
1.68 |
4.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.46 |
-8.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Hertha, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 4.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Hertha** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hertha** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance** at home**.

Hertha,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Mainz |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Dec |
Union Berlin |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Leverkusen |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Dortmund |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Augsburg |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Wolfsburg |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Schalke 04** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Schalke 04** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance** as a guest**.

Schalke 04,** as a guest**, had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
Bielefeld |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Freiburg |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Augsburg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Leverkusen |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

28 Nov |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Wolfsburg |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Mainz |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Oct |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Hertha** and the red line for guest team, **Schalke 04. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Hertha |
13% |
27% |
23% |
36% |

Schalke 04 |
34% |
41% |
17% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Hertha** to score **1.81 ** goals and **Schalke 04** to score **0.84 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.65** goals in the game and the home team **Hertha ** to win by **0.97** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Hertha** to score **1.82 ** goals and **Schalke 04** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.81** goals in the game and the home team **Hertha ** to win by **0.83** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
22.22 |
0-1 |
5.21 |

1 |
6.80 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.67 |
4+ |
3.13 |

3 |
3.64 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.24 |

4 |
4.74 |
Un 1.5 |
5.21 |

5 |
12.50 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |

6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
2.46 |

Gg |
1.74 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.13 |

NoG |
2.35 |
Un 3.5 |
1.47 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.09 |
4.27 |
3.49 |

2-3 goals |
1.66 |
4.33 |
6.04 |

4+ goals |
1.51 |
4.69 |
7.98 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.60 |
4.46 |
6.68 |

Un 1.5 |
2.09 |
4.27 |
3.49 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.39 |
8.74 |
6.06 |

Un 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.57 |
5.21 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.51 |
4.69 |
7.98 |

Un 3.5 |
1.76 |
4.31 |
5.01 |

Goal-Goal |
1.87 |
3.18 |
6.61 |

No Goal |
1.46 |
9.44 |
4.78 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.50 |
6.79 |
5.31 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.72 |
9.44 |
3.76 |

####
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###
Hoffenheim vs Freiburg at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Hoffenheim** and **Freiburg** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Hoffenheim |
2.06 |
2.25 |
-4.1 |

Draw |
3.74 |
3.98 |
-1.6 |

Freiburg |
3.49 |
3.28 |
1.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.54 |
1.84 |
-10.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.54 |
2.19 |
6.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Freiburg, Under 2.5 (1.8 %, 6.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Hoffenheim** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hoffenheim** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance** at home**.

Hoffenheim,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Dec |
M’gladbach |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Dec |
Augsburg |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Nov |
Stuttgart |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Wolfsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Nov |
Union Berlin |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Freiburg** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Freiburg** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance** as a guest**.

Freiburg,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Dec |
Hertha |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Schalke 04 |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Bielefeld |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
M’gladbach |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Augsburg |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Nov |
Mainz |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Leverkusen |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Hoffenheim** and the red line for guest team, **Freiburg. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Hoffenheim |
23% |
33% |
16% |
27% |

Freiburg |
35% |
27% |
22% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Hoffenheim** to score **1.84 ** goals and **Freiburg** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.09** goals in the game and the home team **Hoffenheim ** to win by **0.59** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Hoffenheim** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Freiburg** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.67** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.85 |

1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
2.25 |

2 |
5.08 |
4+ |
3.41 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |

5 |
11.76 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |

6+ |
22.22 |
Un 2.5 |
2.19 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.41 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |