2021 01 01 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sheffield Weds vs Derby at 01 NA 021
Swansea vs Watford at 02 NA 021
Huddersfield vs Reading at 02 NA 021
Rotherham vs Cardiff at 02 NA 021
Preston vs Nott’m Forest at 02 NA 021
Norwich vs Barnsley at 02 NA 021
Wycombe vs Middlesbrough at 02 NA 021
Birmingham vs Blackburn at 02 NA 021
Brentford vs Bristol City at 02 NA 021
Luton vs QPR at 02 NA 021
Stoke vs Bournemouth at 02 NA 021
Millwall vs Coventry at 02 NA 021


Sheffield Weds vs Derby at 01 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sheffield Weds and Derby for Championship (England), which will take place on 01 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sheffield Weds

3.37

2.09

18.2

Draw

3.15

3.60

-4.0

Derby

2.31

4.10

-18.9

Over 2.5

2.58

2.28

5.1

Under 2.5

1.51

1.78

-10.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sheffield Weds, Over 2.5 (18.2 %, 5.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sheffield Weds in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield Weds in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance at home.
Sheffield Weds, at home, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Middlesbrough

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Blackburn

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Coventry

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Nott’m Forest

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Barnsley

H

1

2

L

O

G

08 Dec

Huddersfield

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Norwich

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Reading

H

1

1

D

U

G


Derby in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Derby in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance as a guest.
Derby, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Birmingham

A

4

0

W

O

N

26 Dec

Preston

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Dec

Swansea

H

2

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Stoke

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Dec

Brentford

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Millwall

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Coventry

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Wycombe

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sheffield Weds and the red line for guest team, Derby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sheffield Weds

25%

35%

17%

23%

Derby

39%

40%

10%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sheffield Weds to score 0.89 goals and Derby to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.05 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sheffield Weds to score 1.39 goals and Derby to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Sheffield Weds to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.31

0-1

3.02

1

4.27

2-3

2.21

2

4.35

4+

4.61

3

4.50

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.02

5

23.26

Ov 2.5

2.28

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

1.78

Gg

2.18

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

3.41

3.38

2-3 goals

1.98

3.28

5.26

4+ goals

1.89

5.05

3.68

Ov 1.5

1.95

3.70

4.61

Un 1.5

2.43

3.41

3.38

Ov 2.5

1.60

10.21

3.63

Un 2.5

2.75

2.39

4.60

Ov 3.5

1.89

5.05

3.68

Un 3.5

2.15

3.33

4.26

Goal-Goal

2.49

2.53

4.92

No Goal

1.84

5.59

3.61

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.74

7.44

3.44

NG+Un 2.5

2.07

5.59

3.47


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Swansea vs Watford at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Swansea and Watford for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swansea

2.73

1.80

18.9

Draw

3.13

4.08

-7.4

Watford

2.74

5.03

-16.6

Over 2.5

2.39

2.14

4.9

Under 2.5

1.58

1.88

-10.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swansea, Over 2.5 (18.9 %, 4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swansea in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Swansea in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance at home.
Swansea, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Dec

Reading

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

QPR

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Barnsley

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Dec

Derby

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Cardiff

A

2

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Bournemouth

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Luton

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Middlesbrough

A

1

2

L

O

G


Watford in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance as a guest.
Watford, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Dec

Norwich

H

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Huddersfield

A

0

2

L

U

N

15 Dec

Brentford

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Birmingham

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Rotherham

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Cardiff

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Dec

Nott’m Forest

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Preston

H

4

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swansea and the red line for guest team, Watford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swansea

22%

27%

25%

26%

Watford

47%

33%

10%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.08 goals and Watford to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.54 goals and Watford to score 0.84 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Swansea to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.43

0-1

3.27

1

5.00

2-3

2.09

2

4.41

4+

4.65

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.30

Un 1.5

3.27

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

2.43

Ov 3.5

4.65

NoG

1.70

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.41

2.89

4.19

2-3 goals

1.50

5.44

6.65

4+ goals

1.95

4.22

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.62

4.99

5.51

Un 1.5

2.41

2.89

4.19

Ov 2.5

1.50

9.16

4.49

Un 2.5

2.18

2.75

5.61

Ov 3.5

1.95

4.22

3.98

Un 3.5

1.76

4.05

5.41

Goal-Goal

2.15

2.96

5.07

No Goal

1.61

5.56

4.99

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.69

6.33

3.99

NG+Un 2.5

1.82

5.56

4.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Huddersfield vs Reading at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Huddersfield and Reading for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Huddersfield

2.57

2.46

1.7

Draw

3.15

3.75

-5.1

Reading

2.91

3.07

-1.8

Over 2.5

2.19

2.07

2.6

Under 2.5

1.69

1.94

-7.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Huddersfield, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Huddersfield in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huddersfield in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance at home.
Huddersfield, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Blackburn

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Barnsley

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Watford

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Dec

Coventry

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Bournemouth

A

0

5

L

O

N

08 Dec

Sheffield Weds

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

QPR

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Cardiff

A

0

3

L

O

N


Reading in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reading in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance as a guest.
Reading, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Dec

Swansea

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Luton

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Brentford

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Dec

Norwich

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

QPR

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Dec

Birmingham

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Nott’m Forest

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Sheffield Weds

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Huddersfield and the red line for guest team, Reading.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Huddersfield

26%

32%

25%

16%

Reading

32%

32%

24%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huddersfield to score 1.19 goals and Reading to score 1.1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huddersfield to score 1.31 goals and Reading to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.72

1

5.38

2-3

2.04

2

4.05

4+

4.13

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.72

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.13

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.61

3.24

3.24

2-3 goals

2.31

4.75

2.81

4+ goals

2.63

2.99

3.51

Ov 1.5

2.40

3.97

3.01

Un 1.5

2.61

3.24

3.24

Ov 2.5

2.16

5.98

2.70

Un 2.5

2.82

2.77

3.51

Ov 3.5

2.63

2.99

3.51

Un 3.5

2.41

4.08

2.95

Goal-Goal

2.93

2.74

3.41

No Goal

2.11

5.98

2.79

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.33

4.95

2.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.26

5.98

2.81


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Rotherham vs Cardiff at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rotherham and Cardiff for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rotherham

3.20

2.65

6.5

Draw

3.32

3.65

-2.7

Cardiff

2.31

2.88

-8.6

Over 2.5

2.08

2.18

-2.2

Under 2.5

1.77

1.85

-2.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rotherham (6.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rotherham in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rotherham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance at home.
Rotherham, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Barnsley

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Dec

Blackburn

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Bristol City

H

2

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Watford

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Coventry

A

1

3

L

O

G

01 Dec

Brentford

H

0

2

L

U

N

28 Nov

Bournemouth

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

QPR

A

2

3

L

O

G


Cardiff in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cardiff in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cardiff’s performance as a guest.
Cardiff, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cardiff was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Wycombe

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Brentford

H

2

3

L

O

G

19 Dec

Norwich

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Dec

Birmingham

H

3

2

W

O

G

12 Dec

Swansea

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Dec

Stoke

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Watford

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Huddersfield

H

3

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rotherham and the red line for guest team, Cardiff.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rotherham

28%

36%

18%

17%

Cardiff

31%

34%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rotherham to score 1.05 goals and Cardiff to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rotherham to score 1.23 goals and Cardiff to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.36

1

4.76

2-3

2.11

2

4.12

4+

4.41

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.36

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.41

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.64

3.39

3.07

2-3 goals

2.76