# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Sheffield Weds vs Derby at 01 NA 021**** Swansea vs Watford at 02 NA 021**** Huddersfield vs Reading at 02 NA 021**** Rotherham vs Cardiff at 02 NA 021**** Preston vs Nott’m Forest at 02 NA 021**** Norwich vs Barnsley at 02 NA 021**** Wycombe vs Middlesbrough at 02 NA 021**** Birmingham vs Blackburn at 02 NA 021**** Brentford vs Bristol City at 02 NA 021**** Luton vs QPR at 02 NA 021**** Stoke vs Bournemouth at 02 NA 021**** Millwall vs Coventry at 02 NA 021**

###
Sheffield Weds vs Derby at 01 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sheffield Weds** and **Derby** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **01 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sheffield Weds |
3.37 |
2.09 |
18.2 |

Draw |
3.15 |
3.60 |
-4.0 |

Derby |
2.31 |
4.10 |
-18.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.58 |
2.28 |
5.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.51 |
1.78 |
-10.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sheffield Weds, Over 2.5 (18.2 %, 5.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sheffield Weds** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield Weds** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance** at home**.

Sheffield Weds,** at home**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Dec |
Middlesbrough |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Barnsley |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Reading |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Derby** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Derby** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance** as a guest**.

Derby,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Dec |
Birmingham |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

26 Dec |
Preston |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Swansea |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Stoke |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Brentford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Millwall |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
Wycombe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sheffield Weds** and the red line for guest team, **Derby. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sheffield Weds |
25% |
35% |
17% |
23% |

Derby |
39% |
40% |
10% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sheffield Weds** to score **0.89 ** goals and **Derby** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.05** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.27** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sheffield Weds** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Derby** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and the home team **Sheffield Weds ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.31 |
0-1 |
3.02 |

1 |
4.27 |
2-3 |
2.21 |

2 |
4.35 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.50 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |

4 |
6.76 |
Un 1.5 |
3.02 |

5 |
23.26 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
1.78 |

Gg |
2.18 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
1.85 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.43 |
3.41 |
3.38 |

2-3 goals |
1.98 |
3.28 |
5.26 |

4+ goals |
1.89 |
5.05 |
3.68 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.95 |
3.70 |
4.61 |

Un 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.41 |
3.38 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.60 |
10.21 |
3.63 |

Un 2.5 |
2.75 |
2.39 |
4.60 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.89 |
5.05 |
3.68 |

Un 3.5 |
2.15 |
3.33 |
4.26 |

Goal-Goal |
2.49 |
2.53 |
4.92 |

No Goal |
1.84 |
5.59 |
3.61 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
7.44 |
3.44 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.07 |
5.59 |
3.47 |

####
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###
Swansea vs Watford at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Swansea** and **Watford** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Swansea |
2.73 |
1.80 |
18.9 |

Draw |
3.13 |
4.08 |
-7.4 |

Watford |
2.74 |
5.03 |
-16.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.14 |
4.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.88 |
-10.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Swansea, Over 2.5 (18.9 %, 4.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Swansea** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Swansea** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance** at home**.

Swansea,** at home**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Dec |
Reading |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
QPR |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Barnsley |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Derby |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Cardiff |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Bournemouth |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Luton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Middlesbrough |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Watford** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Watford** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance** as a guest**.

Watford,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Birmingham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Rotherham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Preston |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Swansea** and the red line for guest team, **Watford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Swansea |
22% |
27% |
25% |
26% |

Watford |
47% |
33% |
10% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Swansea** to score **1.08 ** goals and **Watford** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.15** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.01** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Swansea** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Watford** to score **0.84 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Swansea ** to win by **0.7** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.43 |
0-1 |
3.27 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.41 |
4+ |
4.65 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
7.30 |
Un 1.5 |
3.27 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
2.43 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.65 |

NoG |
1.70 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.41 |
2.89 |
4.19 |

2-3 goals |
1.50 |
5.44 |
6.65 |

4+ goals |
1.95 |
4.22 |
3.98 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.62 |
4.99 |
5.51 |

Un 1.5 |
2.41 |
2.89 |
4.19 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.50 |
9.16 |
4.49 |

Un 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.75 |
5.61 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.95 |
4.22 |
3.98 |

Un 3.5 |
1.76 |
4.05 |
5.41 |

Goal-Goal |
2.15 |
2.96 |
5.07 |

No Goal |
1.61 |
5.56 |
4.99 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
6.33 |
3.99 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
5.56 |
4.68 |

####
Go to Top

###
Huddersfield vs Reading at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Huddersfield** and **Reading** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Huddersfield |
2.57 |
2.46 |
1.7 |

Draw |
3.15 |
3.75 |
-5.1 |

Reading |
2.91 |
3.07 |
-1.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.07 |
2.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.94 |
-7.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Huddersfield, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 2.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Huddersfield** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Huddersfield** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance** at home**.

Huddersfield,** at home**, had 7 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Dec |
Blackburn |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Watford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Bournemouth |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

08 Dec |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
QPR |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Cardiff |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**Reading** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reading** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance** as a guest**.

Reading,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Dec |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Luton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Brentford |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
QPR |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Birmingham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Huddersfield** and the red line for guest team, **Reading. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Huddersfield |
26% |
32% |
25% |
16% |

Reading |
32% |
32% |
24% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Huddersfield** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Reading** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.09** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Huddersfield** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Reading** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.72 |

1 |
5.38 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
4.13 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.72 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.13 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.61 |
3.24 |
3.24 |

2-3 goals |
2.31 |
4.75 |
2.81 |

4+ goals |
2.63 |
2.99 |
3.51 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.40 |
3.97 |
3.01 |

Un 1.5 |
2.61 |
3.24 |
3.24 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
5.98 |
2.70 |

Un 2.5 |
2.82 |
2.77 |
3.51 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.63 |
2.99 |
3.51 |

Un 3.5 |
2.41 |
4.08 |
2.95 |

Goal-Goal |
2.93 |
2.74 |
3.41 |

No Goal |
2.11 |
5.98 |
2.79 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
4.95 |
2.71 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.26 |
5.98 |
2.81 |

####
Go to Top

###
Rotherham vs Cardiff at 02 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rotherham** and **Cardiff** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **02 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rotherham |
3.20 |
2.65 |
6.5 |

Draw |
3.32 |
3.65 |
-2.7 |

Cardiff |
2.31 |
2.88 |
-8.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.18 |
-2.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.85 |
-2.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Rotherham (6.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rotherham** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rotherham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance** at home**.

Rotherham,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Dec |
Barnsley |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Bristol City |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Watford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Coventry |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Brentford |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Bournemouth |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
QPR |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Cardiff** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cardiff** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cardiff’s performance** as a guest**.

Cardiff,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cardiff was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Dec |
Wycombe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Brentford |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Birmingham |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Swansea |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Stoke |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Watford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Huddersfield |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rotherham** and the red line for guest team, **Cardiff. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rotherham |
28% |
36% |
18% |
17% |

Cardiff |
31% |
34% |
22% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rotherham** to score **1.05 ** goals and **Cardiff** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.28** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rotherham** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Cardiff** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.36 |

1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
4.41 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.41 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.64 |
3.39 |
3.07 |

2-3 goals |
2.76 |